Sampling Of Scientists Predicting Global COOLING
0N0ZB
August 17 2008
[Note: Many of the scientists and studies cited below first appeared in
the December 2007 U.S. Senate Report of over 400 (now 500 dissenting
scientists and growing) (For Full Senate Report) See also U.S. Senate
Report released in July 2008: 'Consensus' On Man-Made Global Warming
Collapses in 2008]
Australian astronomical Society warns of global COOLING as Sun's
activity 'significantly diminishes' - June 29, 2008 - (LINK) Excerpt: A
new paper published by the Astronomical Society of Australia has a
warning to global warming believers not immediately obvious from the
summary:
Based on our claim that changes in the Sun's equatorial rotation rate
are synchronized with changes in the Sun's orbital motion about the
barycentre, we propose that the mean period for the Sun's meridional
flow is set by a Synodic resonance between the flow period (~22.3 yr),
the overall 178.7-yr repetition period for the solar orbital motion, and
the 19.86-yr synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn. Or as one of the
authors, Ian Wilson, kindly explained to me: It supports the contention
that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish
sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 - 30 years. On
each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World's mean
temperature has dropped by ~ 1 - 2 C.
NEW JASON SATELLITE INDICATES 23-YEAR GLOBAL COOLING
- Canada Free Press, 1 May 2008 - By Dennis Avery, Environmental
Economist and Global Warming Co-author
Excerpt: Now it's not just the sunspots that predict a 23-year global
cooling. The new Jason oceanographic satellite shows that 2007 was a
"cool" La Nina year-but Jason also says something more important is at
work: The much larger and more persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) has turned into its cool phase, telling us to expect moderately
lower global temperatures until 2030 or so. [.]All of this defies the
"consensus" that human-emitted carbon dioxide has been responsible for
our global warming. But the evidence for man-made warming has never been
as strong as its Green advocates maintained. The earth's warming from
1915 to 1940 was just about as strong as the "scary" 1975 to 1998
warming in both scope and duration-and occurred too early to be blamed
on human-emitted CO2. The cooling from 1940 to 1975 defied the
Greenhouse Theory, occurring during the first big surge of man-made
greenhouse emissions. Most recently, the climate has stubbornly refused
to warm since 1998, even though human CO2 emissions have continued to
rise strongly. [.] How many years of declining world temperature would
it take now - in the wake of the ten-year nonwarming since 1998 - to
break up Al Gore's "climate change consensus"?
National Post: Global Cooling! 'Spotless Sun' prompts scientists to fear
'dramatic turn for the worse'
- May 31, 2008
Excerpt: ith the debate focused on a warming Earth, the icy consequences
of a cooler future have not been considered You probably haven't heard
much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and
I hope you don't. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your
lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse. That of your
children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists,
because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in
the climate. As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA
astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society,
"It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin
contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another
little ice age." The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It
has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would
ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. Today's spotlessness -
what alarms Dr. Chapman and others - may be an anomaly of some kind, and
the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn't - and with each
passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it
will not - we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome. [.]
Several renowned scientists have been predicting for some time that the
world could enter a period of cooling right around now, with
consequences that could be dire. "The next little ice age would be much
worse than the previous one and much more harmful than anything warming
may do," believes Dr. Chapman. "There are many more people now and we
have become dependent on a few temperate agricultural areas, especially
in the U.S. and Canada. Global warming would increase agricultural
output, but global cooling will decrease it."
We should prepare now for dangerous global cooling
(By Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, professor in the department of
Earth Sciences at Carleton University in Ottawa)
Excerpt: Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be
starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries,
likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan
for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond
one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for
governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the major
climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at the
northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very little
cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would only
require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of us.
Global cooling predictions
Geologist Dr. Don J. Easterbrook, Emeritus Professor at Western
Washington University, who has authored eight books and 150 journal
publications, predicts that temperatures should cool between 2065 until
2100, and that global temperatures at the end of the century should be
less than 1 degree cooler than at present. This is in contrast to other
theories that there will be a warming by as much as 10 degrees by
100. - Excerpts of sampling of scientists predicting a coming global
cooling Geologist Dr. Don Easterbrook, an emeritus professor of geology
at Western Washington University who has authored eight books and 150
journal publications, announced earlier this week that he was putting
his "reputation on the line" by predicting global cooling. "The average
of the four main temperature measuring methods is slightly cooler since
2002 (except for a brief el Niño interruption) and record breaking
cooling this winter. The argument that this is too short a time period
to be meaningful would be valid were it not for the fact that this
cooling exactly fits the pattern of timing of warm/cool cycles over the
past 400 years," Easterbrook wrote on March 1, 2008.
Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States
- March 2, 2008 (By Geologist David Archibald of Summa Development
Limited in Australia is a Perth-based scientist working in the field of
climate research. Archibald wrote a scientific paper titled "Solar
Cycles 24 and 25 and Predicted Climate Response" in Energy and
Environment in 2006)
Excerpt: I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that
demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth's climate to 2030. It is
a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a
prediction of imminent cooling. [.] We have 29 years of satellite
temperature data. It shows that the temperature of the Southern
Hemisphere has been flat, with a slight increase in the Northern
Hemisphere. Note the El Nino peak in 1998. Globally, we have had 10
years of temperature decline since that peak in 1998, with a rate of
decline of 0.06 degrees per annum. I am expecting the rate of decline to
accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum from the end of this decade. That
satellite record is corroborated by the record of Antarctic and Arctic
sea ice extent over the same period. There is no long term trend
evident. Most recently, there has been a 1 million square kilometre
increase over the long term mean. This is a five per cent increase. [.]
The peak US temperature was in 1936, at much the same time that Total
Solar Irradiance peaked. If you have wondered why US temperatures are
still lower than what they were 70 years ago, the fact that Total Solar
Irradiance is lower than what it was 70 years ago might provide an
explanation.
Geologist David Archibald reveals CO2 is 'tuckered out as a greenhouse
gas'
- May 12, 2008
Excerpt: The more carbon dioxide you put into the atmosphere, the more
you are helping all plants on the planet to grow, and of course that
makes you a better person. Virtue is in direct proportion to your carbon
dioxide output. What of the temperature, you ask? Carbon dioxide is a
greenhouse gas, but the effect is strongly logarithmic. The first 20 ppm
achieves 1.5 degrees of heating, but it takes more than another 400 ppm
to equal that. By the time we get to the current level of 384 ppm,
carbon dioxide is tuckered out as a greenhouse gas. From here, every 100
ppm extra may be worth 0.1 of a degree. [.] Surely a few more years of
cooling will leave only the true believers in their misanthropic
ideology, and the truly idiotic. [.] Not only will it continue,
substantial cooling next decade is in the bag based on current solar
behavior. There is a good correlation between solar cycle length and the
temperature over the following solar cycle. Long solar cycles cause
lower temperatures.
Canadian Climatologist Dr. Timothy Ball: "If we are facing [a crisis] at
all, I think it is that we are preparing for warming when it is looking
like we are cooling. We are preparing for the wrong thing." (March 2008)
(Link)
UK Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn: "There is no evidence that CO2 has ever
driven or will ever drive world temperatures and climate change. The
consequence of that is that worrying about CO2 is irrelevant. Our
prediction is world temperatures will continue to decline until 2014 and
probably continue to decline after that." (March 2008) (Link)
Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age? August 14, 2008
Excerpt: A top observatory that has been measuring sun cycles for over
200 years predicts that global temperatures will drop by two degrees
over the next two decades as solar activity grinds to a halt and the
planet drastically cools down, potentially heralding the onset of a new
ice age. While the mass media, Al Gore and politicized bodies like the
IPCC scaremonger about the perils of global warming and demand the poor
and middle class pay CO2 taxes, both hard scientific data and
circumstantial evidence points to a clear cooling trend. Following the
end of the Sun's most active period in over 11,000 years, the last 10
years have displayed a clear cooling trend as temperatures post-1998
leveled out and are now plummeting. [.] Long-time man-made global
warming advocates NASA assure us that significant sunspot activity will
return in 2012, but a recent a paper on recent solar trends by William
Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson,
predicts that sunspots will all but vanish after 2015. Since the sun,
and not carbon dioxide, is the principle driver of climate change, a
dearth of sunspot activity would herald a repeat of the Maunder Minimum,
the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots
became exceedingly rare and contributed to the onset of the Little Ice
Age during which Europe and North America were hit by bitterly cold
winters and the Thames river in London completely froze.
Livingston and Penn paper: "Sunspots may vanish by 2015?, June 2, 2008 -
By Meteorologist Anthony Watts
Excerpt: From the "I hope to God they are flat wrong department", here
is the abstract of a short paper on recent solar trends by William
Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson.
It was sent to me by reader Mike Ward.I previously highlighted a news
story on this paper on May 21st, but didn't have the actual paper until
now. If anyone has an update to this paper, which uses data up to 2005,
please use the comment form to advise. Here is the complete paper, and
below are some excerpts: Abstract: We have observed spectroscopic
changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic
splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000
sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent
trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become
warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased
(77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle.
A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will
be visible after 2015.
More Signs of the Sun Slowing Down - 'We continue to slide into a deeper
than normal solar minima, one not seen in decades, Meteorologist Anthony
Watts - June 15, 2008
Excerpt: It appears we continue to slide into a deeper than normal solar
minima, one not seen in decades. Given the signs, I think we are about
to embark upon a grand experiment, over which we have no control [...] I
had noted that there was a curios step function in 2005, almost as if
something had "switched off" [...] As you can see, the Ap Index has
continued along at the low level (slightly above zero) that was
established during the drop in October 2005. As of June 2008, we now
have 32 months of the Ap hovering around a value just slightly above
zero, with occasional blips of noise. [...] What is most striking is
that since 1932, there have not been ANY years prior to 2007 that have
zero data. [...]
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4503
--
Warmest Regards
Bonzo
"Global warming is the attack on capitalism that socialism couldn't
bring." Jack Welch, Former General Electric CEO