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No Significant Sea Level Rise In The Maldives, Open Letter

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Oct 21, 2009, 12:55:36 AM10/21/09

Open Letter to President Mohamed Nasheed of the
Maldives

20 Oct 2009

Mr. President,

You have recently held an undersea Cabinet meeting
to raise awareness of the idea that global sea
level is rising and hence threatens to drown the
Maldives.

This proposition is not founded in observational
facts and true scientific judgements, Accordingly
it is incorrect.

Therefore, I am most surprised at your action and
must protest to its intended message.

In 2001, when our research group found
overwhelming evidence that sea level was by
nomeans in a rising mode in the Maldives, but had
remained quite stable for the last 30 years, I
thought it would not be respectful to the fine
people of the Maldives if I were to return home
and present our results in international fora.

Therefore, I announced this happy news during

an interview for your local TV station. However,
your predecessor as president censored and stopped
the broadcast.

When you became president, I was hoping both for
democracy and for dialogue.

However, I have written to you twice without
reply.

Your people ought not to have to suffer a constant

claim that there is no future for them on their
own islands.

This terrible message is deeply inappropriate,
since it is founded not upon reality but upon an
imported concept, which lacks scientific
justification and is thus untenable.

There is simply no rational basis for it.

Let me summarize a few facts (see Fig. 1, and
evidence presented in M�rner, 2007):

(1) In the last 2000 years, sea level has
oscillated with 5 peaks reaching 0.6 to 1.2 m
above the present sea level.

(2) From 1790 to 1970 sea level was about 20 cm
higher than today.

(3) In the 1970s, sea level fell by about 20 cm to
its present level.

(4) Sea level has remained stable for the last 30
years, implying that there are no traces of any
alarming on-going sea level rise.

(5) Therefore, we are able to free the Maldives
(and the rest of low-lying coasts and island
around the globe) from the condemnation of
becoming flooded in the near future.

When I was president for the INQUA commission on
Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution
(1999-2003), we spent much effort on the question
of present-to-future sea level changes.

After intensive field studies, deliberation within
the commission and discussions at five
international meeting, we agreed on a "best
estimate" for possible sea level changes by the
year 2100.

Our figure was +10 cm �10 cm.

This figure was later revised at +5 cm �15

cm (as given in Fig. 1).

Such changes would imply small to negligible
effects.

From our sea level curve in Fig. 1, we can
directly see that such a small rise would pose no
threat for the Maldives.

Rather, it would be a natural return to the
conditions existing from 1790 to 1970; i.e. to the
position before the sea level fall in the 1970s.

The same non-rising sea level story is recorded
for all other areas claimed to be under a flooding
already in progress; viz. Tuvalu, Vanuatu and
Venice (M�rner, 2007b).

Besides, the proposed global trend derived from
satellite altimetry have been tampered by a
"personal

correction" in order to create a rising trend
(M�rner, 2008), actually not measured..

Thermal expansion of the water column may affect
the ocean level by some centimetres to a
decimetre.

At the shore, however, the effect is zero (M�rner,
2000, 2005a, 2009a).

Fig. 1. The Maldives Sea Level Curve of the last
500 years (blue) and the proposed best estimate of
possible sea level changes by year 2100 (violet).

This curve is a detail (without error bars, anchor
points and curved breaking points) from the one
presented by M�rner, (2007).

Sea level has been stable for the last 30 years.

Future changes in the next century are by no means
alarming; at the most it would imply a return to
the pre-1970 situation with an about 20 cm higher
sea level as was the case from 1790 to 1970.

These are the observational facts and the
consequences to face for the future: i.e. no real
problems and certainly no reason for any alarm
and SOS message.

So, Mr. President, when you ignore to face
available observational facts, refuses a normal
democratic dialogue, and continue to menace your
people with the imaginary threat of a disastrous
flooding already in progress, I think you are
doing a serious mistake.

Let us be constructive.

Let us discuss available observational facts.

Let us continue and extend our sea level project
to new sites in the huge Maldivian atoll
archipelago.

And let us, for Heaven's sake, lift the terrible
psychological burden that you and your

predecessor have placed upon the shoulders of all
people in the Maldives, who are now living with
the imagined threat that flooding will soon drive
them from their homes, a wholly false notion that
is nothing but an armchair fiction artificially
constructed by mere computer modelling constantly
proven wrong by meticulous real-world
observations.

Your cabinet meeting under the water is nothing
but a misdirected gimmick or PR stunt.

Al Gore is a master in such cheep techniques.

But such misconduct is dishonest, unproductive

and certainly most un-scientific.

Stockholm, Sweden, October 20, 2009

Nils-Axel M�rner

Head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics at Stockholm
University, Sweden (1991-2005)

President of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level
Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003)

Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000 on)

Chairman of the INTAS project on Geomagnetism and
Climate (1997-2003)

Awarded the Golden Condrite of Merit from Algarve
University (2008) "for his irreverence and
contribution to our understanding of sea level
change"

Acknowledgements:

Our international research group have had the
pleasure to undertake very sophisticated studies
in the Maldives.

Personally, I have been there six times in this

mission, including three one month-long research
expeditions. We have become much in love with the
remarkable nature and the wonderful local people
of the Maldives.

My critics should be seen as a sign of this
respect in combination with a non-negotiable
conviction that

we must base our claims and actions on
observational facts.

Primary references

M�rner, N.-A., 2000. Sea level changes and coastal
dynamics in the Indian Ocean.

Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Spring 2000
Ed, p. 17-20, IGC Publ. Ltd.

M�rner, N.-A., Tooley, M. and Possnert, G., 2004.
New perspectives for the future of the

Maldives. Global Planetary Change, 40, 177-182.

M�rner, N.-A., 2007. Sea level changes and
tsunamis, environmental stress and migration
overseas. The case of the Maldives and Sri Lanka.
Internationales Asienforum, 38, 353-374.

M�rner, N.-A., Laborel, J. and Dawson, S., 2008.
Submarine "sandstorms" and tsunami

events in the Indian Ocean. J. Coastal Res., 24,
1608-1611.

Additional references

M�rner, N.-A., 2004a. Changing sea levels. In:
Encyclopedia of Coastal Sciences (M.

Schwartz, Ed.), p. 229-232.

M�rner, N.-A., 2004b. Estimating future sea level
changes. Global Planetary Change, 40, 49-54.

M�rner, N.-A., 2004c. The Maldives Project: a
future free from see level flooding.

Contemporary South Asia, 13, 149-155.

M�rner, N.-A., 2004d. Sea level change: Are
low-lying islands and coastal areas under threat?
IN: The Impacts of climate change: An appraisal
for the future, p. 29-35. International Policy
Press.

M�rner, N.-A., 2005a. Sea level changes and
crustal movements with special reference to the

Eastern Mediterranean. Z. Geomorphologie, Supp.
Vol. 137, 91-102.

M�rner, N.-A., 2005b. Facts and fiction about sea
level changes. House of Lords Economic

Affairs Committee, 6 pp.

M�rner, N.-A., 2007b. The Greatest Lie Ever Told.
Jofo Grafiska Print, 20 pp, 2007 & 2009.

M�rner, N.-A., 2008a. Comments on comments. Global
Planetary Change, 62, 219-220.

M�rner, N.-A., 2008b. No on-going global flooding
with the Sun in the centre. Estudos do

Quaternario, 5, APEQ, 3-9, Porto.

M�rner, N.-A. 2009a. Some problems in the
reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes

with time. In press.

M�rner, N.-A., 2009. Setting the frames of
expected future sea level changes. Submitted.

M�rner, N.-A., 2009. The Maldives as a measure of
sea level and sea level ethics. Submitted.