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May 2013 30-Day Forecast
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james...@verizon.net
Apr 30, 2013, 5:09:05 PM4/30/13
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MAY 2013 30-DAY OUTLOOK
400 PM EST Tue. Apr 30, 2013
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data, and various models such as the ECMWF monthly, NMME, IMME and the CFSv2, along with observed cases from past such months, data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
The oceanic and atmospheric indicators across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to depict neutral ESNO conditions. Sea surface temperature anomalies remain small throughout much of the basin and in fact the latest weekly nino3.4 sea surface temperatures anomaly is near zero, indicating no departure from its climatological value. The MJO has been active over the last few months, at varying strengths, but recent observations indicate that it is now less of a factor and do not expect a strong signal in May.
Teleconnection associated with the MJO into the mid-latitudes weakens considerably.
The NAO index is positive and is forecast to trend neutral by day 7 and then negative thereafter. The PNA index is negative and is forecast to trend positive by day 7 and remain weekly positive through day 14.
Models are in agreement on the expected 500-hpa height pattern for May and depict a ridge over the West and a trough over the East-Central U.S. The latest GFS ensemble means are the most amplified with the trough in the East and the latest Canadian ensemble means are the least amplified.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for the West coast and the western and northern Rockies. The probability of above normal temperatures for this region is 57 percent. Below normal temperatures are forecast for Texas, the Mississippi Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the interior mid-Atlantic and northern New England. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for the West and the central and southern Plains. The probability of below normal precipitation across this area is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values. Most of the spatial anomalies forecast below normal precipitation in the East.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.jimmunleywx.com
400 PM EST Tue. Apr 30, 2013
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data, and various models such as the ECMWF monthly, NMME, IMME and the CFSv2, along with observed cases from past such months, data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
The oceanic and atmospheric indicators across the equatorial Pacific Ocean continue to depict neutral ESNO conditions. Sea surface temperature anomalies remain small throughout much of the basin and in fact the latest weekly nino3.4 sea surface temperatures anomaly is near zero, indicating no departure from its climatological value. The MJO has been active over the last few months, at varying strengths, but recent observations indicate that it is now less of a factor and do not expect a strong signal in May.
Teleconnection associated with the MJO into the mid-latitudes weakens considerably.
The NAO index is positive and is forecast to trend neutral by day 7 and then negative thereafter. The PNA index is negative and is forecast to trend positive by day 7 and remain weekly positive through day 14.
Models are in agreement on the expected 500-hpa height pattern for May and depict a ridge over the West and a trough over the East-Central U.S. The latest GFS ensemble means are the most amplified with the trough in the East and the latest Canadian ensemble means are the least amplified.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for the West coast and the western and northern Rockies. The probability of above normal temperatures for this region is 57 percent. Below normal temperatures are forecast for Texas, the Mississippi Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the interior mid-Atlantic and northern New England. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for the West and the central and southern Plains. The probability of below normal precipitation across this area is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed climatological values. Most of the spatial anomalies forecast below normal precipitation in the East.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.jimmunleywx.com
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