soufriere hills
Belba Grubb
Belba Grubb
pyroclastic flow, but I arrived at the cam after it had started.
First image captured:
http://twitpic.com/orem0
Second:
http://twitpic.com/oreoo
Third:
http://twitpic.com/oreqk
The cam froze up for a bit, but it's refreshing now:
http://twitpic.com/orf1o
Looks like whatever it was is over. MVO will update their page soon,
most likely:
http://www.montserratvolcanoobservatory.info/
Of note, check out their report for this past week (link in right side
bar). It has been very active.
Barb
Belba Grubb
Barb
Belba Grubb
that week (see http://preview.tinyurl.com/yh5zys6 for the original). I
thought the cam views were really good, but it didn't even merit a
mention in the weeks' activity: that's one violent volcano!
"6 to 13 November 2009
"Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano has been at a high level this
week.
"There have been four hundred and twenty nine rockfall signals, one
hundred and thirty nine long period events, five volcano tectonic and
forty one hybrid earthquakes recorded. The cycles of hybrid
earthquakes merging to tremor ceased on Saturday 7 November. Although
the frequency of rockfalls has decreased the size of the largest
pyroclastic flows has increased.
"Since 6 November activity has been focused mainly on the western side
of the volcano. Good views of the dome on 9 and 10 November have shown
that recent dome growth is on the west-southwest side, immediately
northeast of Chances Peak, intense incandescence and continuous
rockfalls were observed during darkness on these days. Measurements
indicate the dome is now about 1125 metres high. Pyroclastic flows
have occurred mainly down the Gages valley. Flows on the south side of
the valley have moved down Spring Ghaut, whereas larger flows that
have spread across the whole fan have turned toward the north,
southeast of St Georges Hill.
"On several occasions this week there have been simultaneous
pyroclastic flows moving down the Gages Valley and the southwest down
Gingoes Ghaut. The largest pyroclastic flow this week occurred on
evening of 12 Novmber when a flow down Gages travelled down Spring and
then Aymer's Ghaut and nearly reached the sea at Kinsale village. A
few pyroclastic flows have also occurred in Tar River Valley and
Tuitt's Ghaut.
"Owing to technical problems with equipment there were no gas
measurements made this week. There was ashfall across the whole island
on Wednesday 11 November and moderate ashfall in Salem, Old Towne,
Olveston and Woodlands on Thursday 12 November.
"The Hazard Level is 3. There is no access to Zone C."
Barb
----------
"Gie me a spark o' nature's fire,
That's a' the learning I desire."
-- Robert Burns
Belba Grubb
MVO article on it: http://preview.tinyurl.com/yce6y5b
/Caribbean Net News/ article: http://preview.tinyurl.com/yckyb7u
Per MVO's weekly summary for December 4-11: "...Helicopter
observations have shown that the head of Tuitt's Ghaut down to the
junction with Whites Bottom Ghaut is full of pyroclastic flows
deposits such that there is now a continuous surface across from
Farrell's plain. The head of Tyers Ghaut is also now nearly full. This
means that future pyroclastic flows are likely to be less confined by
topography and will spread more readily across the northern flanks of
the volcano."
-- http://preview.tinyurl.com/ya2spc4
Meanwhile, the plucky citizens of the island are taking no chances
with the location of Little Bay, their new capital. Here is it's
location, per Google Maps:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yc6ctpt
Talk about having your back to the sea!
Good luck to them all.
Barb
----------
"A change is as good as a rest."
-- Common proverb
Belba Grubb
StormCarib online hurricane network this year. Currently, they are
discussing a white Christmas down there. Some excerpts:
December 20th: "Not to be out done by the big snow storm on the east
coast of USA our little Nevis will have a white(gray) Christmas also.
Compliments of Montserrat. We woke this morning with a fine white ash
covering everything, even the kitchen counters. That snow just gets
into everything !!!"
December 20th, St. Maarten: Direct link because they've got NOAA
graphics:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml
December 20th: "Just a short note, Saba is experiencing volcanic ash
along with the smell of the sulphur from the Island of Montserrat and
the vis is -10 km. Our thoughts and prayers are with the residents of
Montserrat. All said we do have calm winds from the South at this time
and the ash has reduced the visibility. Win Air is still flying into
and out from Saba."
December 20th, MVO: "Wind directions from the southeast have resulted
in heavy ashfall in many inhabited areas of northwestern Montserrat on
Saturday 19 December. Areas that received significant ashfall
included: Old Towne, Salem, Flemmings, Friths, Olveston, Woodlands and
St Peters. Forecasts are for these southeast winds to continue at
least until the early hours of Monday 21 December meaning that the
areas mentioned above are likely to receive further ashfall on Sunday.
Volcanic activity was high overnight on Saturday 19 December with
large pyroclastic flows in Whites Ghaut on the northeastern flank. It
was the ash clouds generated by these flows which were the main cause
of the ashfall."
I can't imagine how awful things must be for the remaining population
of the island right now. Just look at that volcano cam:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/y8jkh5c In late November of this year, the
ash was causing power outages; don't know how that situation is now.
Current VAAC advisories: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html
Barb
----------
"The fates have given mankind a patient soul."
-- Homer, /The Iliad/
Crazy or courageous, or a little bit of both: "BRADES, Montserrat --
Antiguan-runner Neville Nicholls can now boast of being the winner of
the first ever Montserrat Volcano Half Marathon, which was held on the
morning of December 5, 2009. Fourteen brave runners from Antigua,
Canada, Guadeloupe, Montserrat and the UK, braved the elements to take
part in what is perhaps one of the most strenuous and unique running
events in the world...."
-- From "Montserrat stages first-ever Volcano Half-Marathon" at
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ylnqhwq (link has picture of MVO director,
who participated in the December 8th event)
Belba Grubb
"Ashfall likely to continue into Christmas period
Further ashfall is likely to occur in inhabited regions on Montserrat
over the next few days. Washington VAAC (volcanic ash advisory centre)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html are predicting northerly
dispersal of ash at least until 24th December.
"Cycles of volcanic activity continue to occur at a similar rate as in
previous days every 6-7 hours with pyroclastic flows in several
directions on the northern flanks. It is ash clouds from these
pyroclastic flows that are responsible for this ashfall."
-- MVO, 11:00 am 23rd December 23, 2009
Lovely picture of a possibly ash-driven dawn up at Culebra near Puerto
Rico:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/culebra.shtml
Sigh. I wish *my* air was bathwater warm this morning. Brrrr!!!!!
Barb
---------------------
"El enemigo sigue ahí. "
-- http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2009/05/08/the-daily-volcano-quote-the-enemy-is-still-there/
Used to describe Chaiten, earlier this year, but it could well apply
to Soufriere Hills, too.
Belba Grubb
Reporter,/ and Storm Carib online). It really shows how badly a
volcano can mess up your world, even when the major catastrophic
events from it are spaced out by months to years -- it's the slow
wearing that's so difficult.
MVO update, 18 to 24 December: http://preview.tinyurl.com/y94up5x
Also, the home page has a good article on thermal imaging of the dome.
And the view from the volcano cam is looking...well...Martian-like.
Those poor people.
One of the Storm Carib Montserrat correspondents (both of whom live in
Zone B apparently):
"We here in Montserrat are really getting the ash. The winds which
normally blow to the West have started to go North which is why every
island North of us is dusty. What isn't falling from the volcano is
blowing off the trees and roofs and at times we are in a "gray
out"!!! Tina ( the usual correspondent) and I are in zone B which at
the moment has daytime entry only, 6:30 am to 5:30 pm. None of us in
the zone are really concerned about the volcano so much as the
politics of the whole situation. It is a very stressful time and our
Carnival is going on in spite of everything. I'd ask you to pray for
rain but when the plume is over us it comes down as mud and is even
worse to clean up. Wait for the prayers until the wind returns to the
West..."
More on the stress level all around from a /Montserrat Reporter/
article:
"...Later MVO director Dr. Paul Cole expressed the concerns that led
to the evacuation decision. At the scientific meeting in Salem, he
told a concerned Zone B audience: “The situation is different from the
beginning of the activity on the 12th, 13th and 14th of October when
we had pyroclastic flows down the Tyres Ghaut. Before we had much
less...since that time we have had two and a half million cubic meters
on the lava dome… from that on the north-western side and then
probably at the best estimate is another three million cubic meters of
materials, and it’s possibly more on the northern side above Farrell
plane and Tuitt’s Ghaut, and Tyres Ghaut…so looking at probably in the
region of five and half to six million cubic meters at least, and that
is an estimate. The errors on that are probably large, so probably,
plus or minus 50% at least.”
"Dr. Cole said that it should be no surprise that the decision was
taken since he had previously set a trigger point that should
pyroclastic flows reach as far as Lees he would deem the risk higher
than is tolerable and that the last flow had reached beyond that
point, three kilometers down the Belham.
"Attendees at the meeting, which was hurriedly called the day
following the evacuation announcement, questioned the director on the
information he provided to them. Several however, expressed concern
that they were being once again forced away from their homes and not
told of any suitable arrangements for accommodation. The scientist
immediately advised he was unable to deal with those matters, which of
course forced the Zone B residents to question the reason, why no one
was available to answer their questions.
"Eventually Mrs. Carol Cullen, head of the Governor’s office sought to
appease a somewhat angry audience, but herself was unable to deal with
some issues, except to offer that she was sure that no decision was
made except in the overall interest of safety for all...."
-- Full article at http://www.themontserratreporter.com/index.pl/article_local?id=4279989
(be sure to read the comments, especially the third one)
Also, I never paid much attention to Montserrat before and so was
interested to learn more of its history in a couple of /Telegraph/
articles:
From 2008: http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjgceeu
From 2003: http://preview.tinyurl.com/yb24e82
Soufriere Hills, of course, has been erupting nearly continuously
since 1995 ( http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydpy6q2 ). It's so difficult
for those who live there (though after hearing Dr. Cole's information
about the current dome volume, I'd have been on the next plane or boat
out of there). There's that plucky spirit and "come see our island"
tourism talk four years after the start of the eruption, then five
years after that, and now it's down to survival stuff and stress all
around.
It's very sad.
Barb
---------
"Nature reserves the right to inflict upon her children the most
terrifying jests."
~Thornton Wilder
Belba Grubb
caused flight cancellations in *Puerto Rico*!
Blog: http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/12/soufriere_hills_causing_flight.php
Note the links to Earth Observatory images - this volcano is being a
very bad neighbor (all right, neighbour - G!)
A StormCarib correspondent in PR said it was more than 10 passenger
and cargo flights diverted because of the ash.
Barb
----------
"How blessed are some people, whose lives have no fears, no dreads, to
whom sleep is a blessing that comes nightly, and brings nothing but
sweet dreams."
-- Bram Stroker, in "Dracula"
Belba Grubb
up at MVO:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yed95wx
It's interesting that they call this a small one. The recent ashing
over that part of the Caribbean has apparently been from the
pyroclastic flows. What is it about the material that makes this ash
such a problem? Or is it the huge volume (one "ghaut" has apparently
already been filled up on the island)?
Barb
----------
"Courage is the power to let go of the familiar."
-- Raymond Lindquist
Belba Grubb
http://www.themontserratreporter.com/index.pl/article_local?id=4365234
Explosion?
"Explosion sends pyroclastic flows down Belham Valley
"At 2:49 pm on Friday 8th January 2010 a large pyroclastic flow
forming event occurred at Soufriere Hills volcano. A collapsing
fountain of tephra, associated with ballistic fragments, was observed
at the start of the event on the northeastern side of the volcano
(very similar in character to those which occurred in Summer 1997).
Large pyroclastic flows moved both to the northeast, down towards the
old airport, to the northwest down Tyers Ghaut, and into the Belham
Valley. These flows reached as far as approximately 300 m upstream of
the Belham crossing. Pyroclastic flows also moved to the west towards
Plymouth, although it is presently unclear whether they actually
reached the sea. The event lasted about 11 minutes and seismicity
returned to background levels rapidly. There was no precursory
seismicity associated with the event. Only ashfall has been reported
in inhabited areas on the northwestern side of the volcano.
MVO 18:00 8th January 2010"
-- http://preview.tinyurl.com/yb5hpvc (the original MVO URL is huge
but this is also linked on their front page at http://www.montserratvolcanoobservatory.in
Barb
----------
SH was yesterday's Earth Observatory "image of the day":
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42202
As things looked nine years ago:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Montserrat_Soufriere_volcano.jpg
I couldn't find any pre-eruption images on a quick lookup tonight.
Belba Grubb
Belba Grubb
volcano update. Per MVO today, discussing Friday's event:
"At 2:49 pm on Friday 8th January 2010 a large pyroclastic flow
forming event occurred at Soufriere Hills volcano. A collapsing
fountain of tephra, associated with ballistic fragments, was observed
at the start of the event on the northeastern side of the volcano
(very similar in character to those which occurred in Summer 1997).
Large pyroclastic flows moved both to the northeast, reaching the sea
down Whites Bottom Ghaut and to within a few hundred metres of the sea
down Tuitts Ghaut. Flows also moved to the northwest down Tyers Ghaut,
and into the Belham Valley. These flows reached as far as
approximately 300 m upstream of the old Belham crossing near Air
Studios**. Pyroclastic flows also moved to the west towards Plymouth,
although it is presently unclear whether they actually reached the
sea. Flows also travelled down the Tar River valley. The event lasted
about 11 minutes and seismicity returned to background levels rapidly.
There was no precursory seismicity associated with the event. Only
ashfall has been reported in inhabited areas on the northwestern side
of the volcano."
-- http://preview.tinyurl.com/yk4y5hm
** Per Wikipedia: "[George Martin's AIR] company built another
recording studio on the Caribbean island of Montserrat in the 1970s.
In 1986 the facility was described as: "Recently refurbished control
room now featuring 60 channels by SSL with automation and TR and 12
fully integrated channels by Rupert Neve of Focusrite, two 32track
Mitsubishi X850 digital machines and 24track Studer A800. Digital
mixing on two Mitsubishi X86. Very comprehensive ancillary equipment
list." Elton John recorded three albums there during the 80's, and
Dire Straits recorded their super selling album Brothers in Arms in
-84/-85. Other artists such as Paul McCartney, Rush, The Police,
Rolling Stones, Duran Duran, Little River Band and Supertramp have
also recorded albums there. The Montserrat facility was mostly
destroyed by Hurricane Hugo in 1989."
Just another day in Paradise....
Barb
----------
http://www.montserratvolcano.org/
Belba Grubb
apparently), last one reported at 8:27 p.m. last night (local time),
and seismicity at that point then returned to previous levels; and in
the "Caribbean Net News," this:
"This afternoon’s [Friday's] event Dr Paul Cole, MVO Director
confirmed was similar to the summer 1997 explosion. 'A collapsing
fountain of tephra, associated with ballistic fragments, was observed
at the start of the event on the northeastern side of the volcano. We
do not believe that there was major collapse of the dome but
significant amount of material was lost.'
"Cloud cover around the top of the volcano is inhibiting visibility
and scientists are not able to tell if the dome which has been growing
rapidly since December has diminished considerably."
-- full article at http://www.caribbeannetnews.com/news-20801--22-22--.html
They're complaining about ash at Nevis on the hurricane network, but
per the VAAC advisories, the plumes do appear much less than Friday's;
however, the winds might not carry it away from Montserrat this week.
In the cam, it's really impossible to say for sure, but it does look
as if that section of the summit that had grown so rapidly is no
longer there.
Barb
----------
"I always sense that, despite the barren surroundings, I am perched on
a conduit to the most basic energy in the universe, a pipeline to the
beginnings of the planet. No other place leaves me as keenly aware of
man's powerlessness in the face of nature and the inconsequence of a
single life."
-- Stanley Williams, in "Surviving Galeras"
Belba Grubb
video of it online today:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydfp56l
Wow!
Barb
----------
"We are so impressed by scientific clank that we feel we ought not to
say that the sunflower turns because it knows where the sun is. It is
almost second nature to us to prefer explanations . . . with a large
vocabulary. We are much more comfortable when we are assured that the
sunflower turns because it is heliotropic. The trouble with that kind
of talk is that it tempts us to think that we know what the sunflower
is up to. But we don't. The sunflower is a mystery, just as every
single thing in the universe is."
--Robert Farrer Capon
Belba Grubb
the sea:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yc48q7k
Excellent picture, with labels!
From latest VAAC advisory at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/ARCH10/SOUF/2010A182254.html
:
RMK: VA SEEN EXTENDING 150 NM TO THE SW OF THE
SUMMIT WITH ANOTHER ERUPTION AROUND 1700Z.
HOTSPOT REMAINS STEADY SINCE THE ERUPTION.
How fortunate the volcano's location and the wind patterns as yet
haven't put any of this into Haitian air space.
Barb
----------
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oD3LHfJX9_E
Belba Grubb
the sea. The MVO article and a neat image of the flow are here:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yestoqf
The weekly update for last week: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ya4ybug
Barb
----------
“There is more treasure in books than in all the pirate's loot on
Treasure Island.”
-- Walt Disney
Belba Grubb
5th not the 8th of February) online at:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydfp56l
It was so big that this fixed camera only captures the initial stages,
but those are tremendous. Per the MVO, via the Volcanism Blog post on
it at http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/02/08/vulcanian-eruption-at-soufriere-hills/
, the flow swept 500 m out to sea and its plume reached 21,000 feet.
The VB also has a link to a striking Earth Observatory image of
Soufriere Hills recently:
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/new-soufriere-hills-image-at-the-nasa-earth-observatory/
I want to slap a "No Smoking" sign on this image (BG).
Today, per Washington VAAC, the ash is heading almost completely in
the opposite direction. Antigua's getting hit.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/ARCH10/SOUF/2010B081608.html (current
advisory)
This volcano certainly has made a comeback recently.
Barb
----------
"But this is an occupational hazard of being a scientist. You say this
is the best information I have and then you realize that not everyone
is going to read the footnotes or the whole book, so people are going
to get the wrong impression."
-- Bjorn Lomborg
Belba Grubb
thermal video is from the 8th...of January. It turns out that
Soufriere Hills also had a small vulcanian explosion on the 8th of
February (yesterday), too, but I didn't see a thermal video of it at
the MVO site (although some of yesterday's surges were captured on
thermal camera, per the MVO article about yesterday's explosion at
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yl97hcm ).
Barb
-------------
“It is easier to perceive error than to find truth, for the former
lies on the surface and is easily seen, while the latter lies in the
depth, where few are willing to search for it.”
-- Goethe, writer and amateur geologist
Belba Grubb
Volcanism Blog (this post has a link to the MVO article on it):
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/02/11/large-partial-dome-collapse-at-soufriere-hills/
The storm2K comment links to a thread with images and a VAAC
advisory. Here's the current advisory: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/ARCH10/SOUF/2010B111830.html
And in the hurricane network, someone in Zone B is hoping against
hope: "t will be a few days before we know how much came down but
hopefully it will be enough to let those of us evacuated be able to go
home."
Barb
----------
"The real difficulty about vulcanism is not to see how it can start,
but how it can stop."
— Sir Harold Jeffreys
Belba Grubb
the partial dome collapse going over the sea, at
http://www.themontserratreporter.com/index.pl/article_local?id=4537572
and also excerpts of an interview with MVO's Dr. Cole.
Per MVO's weekly summary, "Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano has
increased significantly this week with two vulcanian explosions and a
partial dome collapse...There have been five hundred and twelve rock
fall signals, one hundred and forty one long period events, eighty two
hybrid earthquakes and four volcano tectonic events recorded this
week. The Hazard Level is 4. There is no access to Zone C and only
daytime access (6:30 am to 5:30 pm) to part of Zone B." Read the full
thing at http://preview.tinyurl.com/yj4qd4m
The /Volcanism Blog/ post linked above has been updated, too.
Barb
-------------
"Nobody trips over mountains. It is the small pebble that causes you
to stumble. Pass all the pebbles in your path and you will find you
have crossed the mountain."
-- Author Unknown
Belba Grubb
commentary by Dr. Cole:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeOaErI9r30
Some of the videos on the right side looking interesting, too. Will
check them out now.
Latest VAAC advisory:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/ARCH10/SOUF/2010B131458.html
Barb
Belba Grubb
descriptions of ash fallen on nearby islands, and got a tip from the
observer on St. Croix on a satellite animation. This won't work after
a few days, but for now check out this site (heavy bandwidth use -
fast connections only!) and click "animate," then "most recent":
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi
Quite impressive!
Barb
Belba Grubb
occurred at the volcano since May 2006. Full report here:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yeyqmjz
A user-created Google map of the island, with some of the places MVO
mentions in today's report, is here:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/ylh8l8p
It also has link on it to a video that's pretty interesting in human
terms (not scientific). Note the description of the "little geologist"
near the end. :-)
The video is quick and light, but here is MVO's chronology of the
current eruption, to put it all (and what the Monserratians have
experienced) into perspective::
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjftksl
Barb
---------
"It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men."
-- Frederick Douglass
Belba Grubb
the MVO: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ydj6erl
Wow!
It's good that they describe the summit; the webcam hasn't updated
since February 12th. Seismicity is low, per this report, and
apparently there haven't yet been the decompression explosions Dr.
Cole had mentioned in his interviews.
Barb
----------
"Ay, many flowering islands lie In the waters of wide Agony."
-- Shelley
Belba Grubb II
accompanying image:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yhx96wc
Note especially how the southwestern vallies are overflowing...and all
this just from last October.
Link to the original Earth Observatory images (per the "Volcanism
Blog") here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=42792
Barb
----------
Mal: "It never goes smooth. How come it never goes smooth? "
-- From "Safe," in /Firefly/
Belba Grubb
collapse, and MVO lowered the hazard level down to 3 some time
recently, which a lot of islanders must have been thankful for.
Per the February 26-March 4 MVO update at http://preview.tinyurl.com/ybfhadq:
"Observations of the inside of the crater at the summit of the dome on
26 February showed that it is shallow < 100 m deep and approximately
200 m wide. There was no newly extruded lava visible inside the
crater."
There is an image of the crater on their front page. It's a summit.
In their Flickr stream, there is also a wider view from the south,
above the collapse scar. There are also many other good images.
These all can be seen at http://www.flickr.com/photos/mvo/ .
Barb
----------
"If I can't picture it, I can't understand it."
--Albert Einstein
Belba Grubb
flows: "There is no evidence of extrusion of any fresh lava."
Full discussion is online at http://preview.tinyurl.com/yda8ryn One
wonders if the lava will just start extruding again or if the volcano
is pressurizing. Is there a public webicorder/helicorder URL
available?
That they expect rain to cause further pyroclastic flows makes this
year's hurricane forecast for the Caribbean relevant. The Colorado
State forecast (and remember none of these things is ever written in
stone) forecasts a higher-then-average (53% as compared to 42% average
over the last century) probability of a major (Category 3, 4, or 5)
hurricane hitting the Caribbean; they base this on expectations that
the ongoing moderate to strong El Nino (which really weakens one of
the key factors for tropical cyclone development--winds in the
Atlantic) will diminish.
Of course, a major hurricane is not required: just plain old rain will
do it, at least now, so soon after the dome collapse. (That's
something the Southern Caribbean sure could use right now -- the
dryness on many islands is breaking records. Fires are breaking out in
some areas, and there are at least rumors that some islands are
shipping water to others to keep the hotels in business and the
tourist industry going.)
Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project link for US and Caribbean
site:
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
Current Colorado State forecast (PDF):
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2009/dec2009/dec2009.pdf
Barb
------------
"The British, he thought, must be gluttons for satire: even the
weather forecast seemed to be some kind of spoof, predicting every
possible combination of weather for the next twenty-four hours without
actually committing itself to anything specific."
-- David John Lodge
"[Y]ou’ve no idea of the comic potential inherent in the term ’small
pyroclastic flow moving northwards’ until you’ve heard Zeb reading
it."
-- The /Volcanism Blog/, describing a recent BBC Radio Four
experiment in volcano forecasting at:
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/03/05/the-volcano-forecast-something-a-little-different/
Belba Grubb
signals, nine long-period, seven hybrid earthquakes and two volcano
tectonic events recorded this week. A small swarm of six hybrid
earthquakes occurred on 11 March."
The whole summary for March 5 through March 12 is at http://preview.tinyurl.com/ycefdbh
. They say activity this week was moderate; last week (http://
preview.tinyurl.com/ybfhadq ), it was described as low. However,
during another low-activity week (February 12 through February 19,
2010), 53 rock falls, 34 long-period events, 4 hybrid earthquakes and
1 volcano tectonic event were described.
It's probably the pyroclastic flows that drew the "moderate" activity
rating, although the March 11 mini-swarm is interesting. Nothing is
said in this week's report about lava extrusion or FTIR measurements.
What's the volcano up to now?
Barb
----------
"Tomorrow is the Gorgon; a man must only see it mirrored in the
shining shield of yesterday. If he sees it directly he is turned to
stone."
-- G. K. Chesterton, in "What's Wrong With the World"
Belba Grubb
my end), but there is no current online VAAC advisory for the area and
the real-time satellite imagery looks clear:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/souf-img.html
However, while poking around the satellite imagery sites, I found the
best time-lapse image of the February 11th dome collapse that I've
seen yet -- taken from the "visible" channel of the GOES floater that
they have over the volcano. Enjoy!
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Volcano/Montserrat/2010/soufriere_vis.gif
The neighbors, obviously, did not enjoy it. The report from the
Guadeloupe citizen hurricane network that day: "A lot of ash is
falling since this afternoon,and it's now affecting the whole island.
Cars are grey.The airport is closed and schools are also closed to
morrow."
Barb
----------
"Men of science have quarreled with the Bible because it is not based
upon the true astronomical system, but it is certainly open to the
orthodox to say that if it had been it would never have convinced
anybody. If a single poem or a single story were really transfused
with the Copernican idea, the thing would be a nightmare."
-- G. K. Chesterton, in /The Defendant/
"Earth is rocking in space...."
-- Aeschylus, from the poem "Prometheus Amid Hurricane and Earthquake"
Belba Grubb II
posted at the MVO Web site today -- http://preview.tinyurl.com/yjdsulb
-- the volcano is still considered active, in spite of very quiet
surface activity and low seismicity (guess it's not pressurizing).
They think the most likely next phase will be the resumption of lava
extrusion.
Per /Eruptions/ blog, here is a /Daily Mail/ article with photographs
of the dome collapse taken by people on a passing 737. Since the
plume went up to some 40,000 feet, I'm guessing that they were at the
standard 35,000 feet or so at the time:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1260293/Montserrat-Soufriere-Hills-volcano-erupts-Caribbean-island.html
Lucky passengers!!
Scroll down to the bottom for the in-flight announcement given to
rather more unfortunate passengers on a British Airways flight over
Indonesia in 1982 after it flew through a cloud of ash from
Galunggung: "'Ladies and Gentlemen, this is your Captain speaking. We
have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are doing our
damnedest to get them under control. 'I trust you are not in too much
distress.'
More on that incident here (and elsewhere on the Web):
http://en.allexperts.com/e/b/br/british_airways_flight_9.htm
Barb
Belba Grubb
them (PDF) is linked to their Web site now. It covers their work on
the volcano from August 15, 2009, to February 28, 2010, when This file
has on its cover what is quite possibly, and without any
overstatement, the most dramatic image of a pyroclastic flow ever
taken (from January 10, 2010):
http://www.montserratvolcanoobservatory.info/downloads/Reports/mvoreport_sac14_pt1_main_ofr10-01a.pdf
This past week, per the MVO, the volcano was very quiet, although
there was one rain-caused lahar.
Also on the MVO site is a thermal video record of the February 11th
dome collapse:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdJyDSs6rzA
The event was so violent, it blurred many distinctions on the video,
but the temperature scale is very valuable -- watch this all the way
to the end. That is *hot* stuff.
Barb
----------
"If you do not raise your eyes you will think that you are the highest
point."
-- Antonio Porchia
Belba Grubb
1995 (stumbled across this 4-parter on You Tube):
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wY0Z1T16EII&
(How the place used to look - this probably wasn't meant to be
evocative of a lost world, but it is.)
Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfBYOItK4MM&NR=1
(Bramble airport! Welcome to Montserrat! Gone now. Closeups of the
volcano start at about the 3-minute mark; keep your speakers down...he
leans right out the window under the engine in some parts.)
Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGOY2vRYxww&NR=1
(A bit more of the summit and then a return, with a closeup of cliffs
that currently are much less scenic--and are now further inland--and
have had a few more layers deposited onto them.)
Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-Oy59ychyQ&NR=1
(Plymouth was still inhabited; there is one last look at the volcano
at around 5:30--how small it was back then, and nondominant!)
The lighting isn't that great -- I wish they had gone up at noon
instead of at sunset (although the setting sun, whether or not
intentionally, is also evocative in Part 4: there were some 13,000
people living there the year before [1994] and about 8000 would leave
and have not yet returned), but these views are still interesting,
even to a layperson, because enough of the original landscape around
the volcano is still preserved and you can see how the thing has
broken through the island. There are lava spines, but the main
activity at this point seems to be behind them.
There is probably much more that the educated eye can see here in
those closeups.
I am curious about a ridge that used to be forested, at about 2:50 in
part 3, that has what looks like a ragged series of sizable yellow
circular/elliptical features along it. It's at some distance from the
central part of the volcano: are these the scars of ejecta, perhaps,
or fumaroles (sulfur crusted, if the yellow color isn't just a sunset
effect) that aren't active at the moment? They don't look like the
boulders/land-slips seen elsewhere in that area.
For contrast as well as a review, here is the photovolcanica.com
Soufriere Hills page, current through January 2010:
http://www.photovolcanica.com/VolcanoInfo/Soufriere%20Hills/Soufriere%20Hills.html
Barb
Belba Grubb
announcement of an upcoming meeting next year, at http://preview.tinyurl.com/32prs56
, that "[T]he eruption continues to break records with the largest and
highest lava dome recorded, longest runout pyroclastic flows, and
devastating turbulent density currents that reached areas that had not
yet been impacted, all taking place during the most recent phase of
lava extrusion in 2009 and 2010."
They also note that the eruption, over 15 years, "has erupted over 1
km3 of andesitic magma in five distinct phases." For perspective, if
one put it on the VEI scale (hard to see how that could be done), it
would still be a VEI 0. The residents of Montserrat might disagree
with that classification.
It's just such a British sort of eruption...powerful and yet so
reserved. (BG)
Barb
----------
"Various accounts of Empedocle's death are given in ancient sources.
His enemies said that his desire to be thought a god led him to throw
himself into the crater of Mount Etna so that he might vanish from the
world completely and thus lead men to believe he had achieved
apotheosis. Unfortunately the volcano defeated his design by throwing
out one of the philosopher's sandals."
— Empedocles (as quoted at http://www.todayinsci.com/QuotationsCategories/V_Cat/Volcano-Quotations.htm
[scroll down])