How is the death toll obtained after an earthquake?
qquito
After an earthquake, or any other large-scale natural disaster, how
are the numbers of deaths and missing people obtained? Are they from
statistics of reports of individual cases to a central authority?
--Roland
kolldata
Weatherlawyer
Good question.
Rich Ulrich
Which estimates? How soon? What quality of disaster? Which
country, that has what kind of citizen registries?
An earthquake in Peru brought landslides that wiped out whole
villages. Losses of thousands, and poor counts.
The last big earthquake in California did not feature landslides or
floods. Deaths were few, and had names attached.
Early Japanese reports said that whole towns were out of contact
and surrounded by water. The first estimates were based on known
collapses and individual losses. The number jumped from hundreds
to 10,000 when one small city was apparently wiped out by a
30-foot+ wall of water. I don't know whether these reports -- the
ones that reach the international news media -- are being collated by
the government or by news organizations, Japanese or other.
But Japan passed the U.S. 20 years ago, in average per-capita income,
and U.S.-style povery and homelessness is practically unknown.
They are a rich and organized society, with better cars, TVs, and
internet access than the U.S. has; they don't lack resources for
eventually finding out who is missing. Plus, the government (I think)
keeps track of where everyone lives. They will eventually know
pretty exactly who is missing. But in the shorter time frame, they
have to get electricity restored.
--
Rich Ulrich
Thomas A. Russ
The official death tolls are typically derived from reports to central
authorities. These numbers will, therefore, have a delay before they
reflect the reality of the situation. They will also climb in the days
and weeks following a disaster as more confirmed reports come in.
There are, in addition, often estimates made by emergency and disaster
reponse agencies as well, but these are -- as expected -- not certain.
In the case of Japan right now (from this morning's newspapers), I
noticed that the official tolls were fairly low (~2000 dead and a
similar number missing) but it was acknowledged that there were a lot of
people that were "not heard from" but not officially listed as missing.
That is why the estimates are starting to come in above 10,000 deaths.
--
Thomas A. Russ, USC/Information Sciences Institute
neil
Hi Ronald,
I think it works somewhat in this way - The local governing agencies
of towns (the municipal) have the detailed record of each and every
street and house in the town or locality. When such a calamity is
struck, the police and the municipal agency comes together on the
records and identifies the total affected population by demography,
and calls for reporting to base camp, unreported are termed as
missing.
Its my understanding as a statistics scholar, dunno the ground
realities.
Neil
Weatherlawyer
> On Mar 14, 4:38 am, qquito <qqu...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Hello, Al
>
> > are the numbers of deaths and missing people obtained? Are they from
> > statistics of reports of individual cases to a central authority?
>
>
> I think it works somewhat in this way - The local governing agencies
> of towns (the municipal) have the detailed record of each and every
> street and house in the town or locality. When such a calamity is
> struck, the police and the municipal agency comes together on the
> records and identifies the total affected population by demography,
> and calls for reporting to base camp, unreported are termed as
> missing.
>
> Its my understanding as a statistics scholar, dunno the ground
> realities.
When the Normandy invasion went on in WW2 the dead were counted by
photograph. They were lining the beaches of the Omaha section like
seals at a Canadian picnic.
I imagine the first figures would have come from military jets
overflying the area. Reports of bodies were measured by the hundreds
and no exact figure given.
That sounds like a political/military estimate. I believe Herschell
developed the technique to estimate the number of stars.
Then the state steps in.
Political damage control is quite divorced from whatever is released
to the press. The plutonium rods for instance are highly flamable. But
the story put out was that hydrogen evolved from the water at intense
heat was the cause of explosions.
(Well, it is an electricity supply plant....)
Once radio active elements pool they can do almost anything including
detonate in a dirty nuclear explosion.
There was talk of cadmium (IIRC) boron containers holding the fuel
safely. As if the thin coating they put on them will do much good.
They are there to help control the emission but their primary function
is for handling the rods and separating them from the furnace walls.
They are wafer thin and the fuel obviously has to come out of one end
to maintain a reaction when required.
But nothing like that was mentioned.
Also conspicious by its absence was the accident amelioration
technique devised for difficult to evaccuate regions with poor
infrastructure of the type of place they like to put nuclear
generators.
The reason they put them so far from where they are needed is because
they are bloody dangerous. Although everyone in Tokio would be able to
get out of Tokio if they built one there and it went tits-up, rural
regions tend to have only two or three roads. And not a lot of say in
a democracy.
And one of the roads will be the one to the nuclear plant.
As far as I know the people worst hit are still waiting for water,
they still have nothing. (Well they had a tidal wave if that counts.)
But not to worry, the Japanese government is getting the economy under
control by giving the banks plenty of money to play with.
Ooh and it makes me wonder
Ooh and it makes me wonder
<Wonders away, whistling to self>
kolldata
HOWEVER, realities are akin to war on the nuke scale.
who's left to know whose left ?
Weatherlawyer
We've already had three nuclear wars, dopey. That's why Russia is now
free to play the great game once more. They went broke and their subs
were crap.
kolldata
hinges on Guy Ark drilling. lookit the map. Not only is Baja leaving
but Guy drilling causes NA to come unglued as seen at USGS Earthquakes
North America.
Looks like the Japanese will get this years GOLDEN HAMMER AWARD.
a good time for creative thinking.