Earthquake Dart Board is online
Skywise
It's under the earthquake pages on my website at:
<http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/index.html>
For the lazy ones, the direct link is:
<http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html>
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
Supernews sucks - blocking google, usenet.com & newsfeeds.com posts
Petra
Skywise wrote:
> My "Earthquake Dart Board" is now online.
Hi Brian,
Great Map, love the rules! Especially the last one.
I have question. I see you selected some area's of Alaska and I
thought the circles were supposed to be in warm water areas. Is Alaska
warmer than normal now? There's no explanation on the map about the
water temperatures, unless I missed it.
All in all, I think you did a great job. Good for you. I hope it
brings you hits a plenty! Go get em.
Petra
Skywise
@o13g2000cwo.googlegroups.com:
>
> Skywise wrote:
>> My "Earthquake Dart Board" is now online.
>
> Hi Brian,
>
> Great Map, love the rules! Especially the last one.
>
> I have question. I see you selected some area's of Alaska and I
> thought the circles were supposed to be in warm water areas. Is Alaska
> warmer than normal now? There's no explanation on the map about the
> water temperatures, unless I missed it.
I am not using the same method as Stan. I don't care about water
temps. My exact method is going to be a secret for a while. When
I've got a few months of maps and hit statistics I'll write up an
analysis and explain how it works. But as a hint, I did a short
test run on some archived data and I had an accuracy rate of 96.5%!
> All in all, I think you did a great job. Good for you. I hope it
> brings you hits a plenty! Go get em.
>
> Petra
Brian
Skywise
news:c5otl1li3vrddocc5...@4ax.com:
> On Wed, 26 Oct 2005 00:07:31 -0000, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Skywise
> <in...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
>
>>My "Earthquake Dart Board" is now online.
>>
>>It's under the earthquake pages on my website at:
>><http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/index.html>
>>
>>For the lazy ones, the direct link is:
>><http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html>
>
> Nice do have a script to do the map? or did you have to paint each circle
> itself...?
I have pre-made a map so all I have to do is move the circles
and save the new map.
But there is some computer code involved and I'll try expanding
on it so it draws the map for me. But as it stands it only takes
me a few minutes to make a new map. All the hard work has been
done already.
And hard it was. I really had a problem getting the topo data
to work. The data is a raw binary file of over 111 megs. It's
high resolution, 2 arc minute. But I needed to convert it to
something for my GIS software to use. It wasn't working and I
knew it wasn't my code so I thought the data was bad. After
discussing the problem with someone at NOAA (where I got the
data) I finally determined it was my GIS software not reading
the data correctly. I converted it to a different format and
it finally worked.
Designing the map itself was less troublesome, only taking me
a few hours.
George
"Skywise" <in...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote in message
news:11lti63...@corp.supernews.com...
Great map. I wonder what the prediction gods will say to you now?
Skywise
@corp.supernews.com:
> My "Earthquake Dart Board" is now online.
>
> It's under the earthquake pages on my website at:
> <http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/index.html>
>
> For the lazy ones, the direct link is:
> <http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html>
>
> Brian
One thing I want to mention is that it'll be a while for any
hits to be posted. As stated in my rules I'll be waiting two
weeks for the magnitude and location to stabilize. Adding that
the maps are good for five days, that means it'll be 19 days
before a particualar maps hits are checked.
One good thing about this is I'll be able to write computer
code to check the hits automatically.
Skywise
> My "Earthquake Dart Board" is now online.
>
> It's under the earthquake pages on my website at:
> <http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/index.html>
>
> For the lazy ones, the direct link is:
> <http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html>
>
> Brian
Just a funny thought I had, but I wonder how long it'll be
before I get a call from George Noory. hehehehe :)
Skywise
<Snipola>
> Let me know if you do... I would like to run a contest side by side with
> yours.
Well, the program is just a codification of my thought process
to determine where to put the circles. I could have done it by
hand but the program does it in less than a second so all I have
to do is adjust the map according to what the software spits out.
By hand or by computer, the result is the same.
The only improvement would be to have the software make the map
for me based on it's code and the few inputs I add of my own
each time.
<Snipola>
> So you are going to use the same map every time? the circle are on a
> static map? or will the map change or time?
The base map is fixed. It's nothing more than a topographical relief
map of the continents and ocean floors. Only the position of the
circles will change. It's basically the same idea as what Stan is
doing, except he also overylays his water temp data. I'm not using
water temps.
>>Designing the map itself was less troublesome, only taking me
>>a few hours.
>
> Only a few hours... I have only a few spare minutes at a time... I would
> love to have a few hours...
I have too many hours. :)
Now if only I could get paid for my predictions.... :)
Petra
Skywise wrote:
Now if only I could get paid for my predictions.... :)
Brian,
Maybe we could get a sponsor for you and for every correct prediction
you make, a turkey can be donated to a local food bank in your name.
How does that sound? Or perhaps we could make it more interesting and
do it way:
<4.0 1 turkey
4.0 - 5.0 2 turkeys
5.0 - 6.0 3 turkeys
6.0 - 7.0 4 turkeys
7.0> 5 turkeys
If you could hit the upper mags, then they could feed a lot of people
in no time flat. A few 6's and a couple of 7's would be terrific.
Maybe Coast to Coast could be your sponsor? You could talk turkey all
of the time.
Of course the flip side is that Deyo needs a sponsor too. Perhaps C to
C could work out something between the two of you. His lack of hits
subtracted from your hits could be equal to X number of turkeys
donated. Or visa verse as well.
Before you know it everyone around will know predicting earthquake hits
equals more families eating turkey. I kind of like it. Considering
Thanksgiving and Christmas are right around the corner, its a perfect
time.
I guess I'll have to accept that no one is ever going to pay me for my
Parkfield prediction. It's a once in 30 year event and there's no
prize. Darn. go figure.
Cheers!
Petra
Skywise
@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com:
>
> Skywise wrote:
>
>
> Now if only I could get paid for my predictions.... :)
>
> Brian,
>
> Maybe we could get a sponsor for you and for every correct prediction
> you make, a turkey can be donated to a local food bank in your name.
<Snipola>
That's a cute idea. Certainly a worthwhile result.
But I'm not looking for fame and glory. My remark was more
along the lines of "if they can get paid for making bogus
predictions (IMNSHO) then why can't I get paid for debunking
them?" But it could happen. People do get paid for debunking
all sorts of things. If I worked at it I probably could get
in on the action.
Petra
Skywise wrote:
> "Petra" <petr...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:1130378640.029501.48660
> @f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com:
>
> >
> > Skywise wrote:
> >
>
> That's a cute idea. Certainly a worthwhile result.
>
>
Brian,
I'm glad you liked that one. I'm the new Public Relations person for
our Kiwanis Club, so I have to come up with lots of cute ideas.
I think you got two hits today....Hawaii and Alaska....I know you're
not going to give us the Official Count for 19 days...but honestly, 19
days causes a loss of momentum. This thing needs to get a little speed
behind it. I know, it was a slow earthquake day. Maybe tomorrow will
be more fruitful. LOL
Petra
Skywise
@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:
Part of the reason for waiting is I can do the checking with
a computer program. All I have to do is feed it the lat/lon of
my circles and the latest list from the NEIC searchabel database
and it'll spit out all the hits and close-calls for me. It'll
also reduce the chance of a human error.
But I'll look into listing some obvious hits so it'll get the
momentum going. I can always note that they are not absolutely
confirmed yet.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Skywise
@g44g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:
<Snipola>
> I know you're
> not going to give us the Official Count for 19 days...but honestly, 19
> days causes a loss of momentum.
<Snipola>
I have added a hit list to the page along with todays new map.
My quick checking shows 6 probable hits so far.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Petra
Let's have an update! How are things looking? Is Stan beating the
pants off of you or is it the other way around?
Petra
Skywise
@g43g2000cwa.googlegroups.com:
I considered posting about it today, but didn't want to seem like I
was gloating. But since you requested it...
After I posted todays map and checked for possible hits I did a
little comparison.
As of today I have 44 possible hits.
Stan is claiming 48 over about the same time period.
All of my hits are M4.0 and above.
Only 21 of Stans 48 are above 4.0.
Although my focus is on M4+ quakes, it will be very easy for me
to check for smaller quakes when I start the verification process.
I will list them seperately. I can also program a "close call"
buffer zone in the program and list those seperately as well.
Two notable quakes I missed were the 4.5 in Montana and the 6.5
on the Southeast Indian Ridge between Antarctica and Australia.
Stan has not claimed the Montana quake and seems to be trying to
fudge the other,
"Although Stan did not circle the region...he noted that the
region was part of a huge and "VERY unusual thermal" anomaly...
The quake occurred at the very end of this anomaly..."
Also, I've noticed that ever since I complained about the size
of Stans circles in this newsgroup, they've suddenly been smaller.
It could be a coincidence, or is Stan reading SGE? Not that it
matters. He himself said teh event does not have to be in the
circle, only "close enough".
Petra
Brian,
I don't think keeping current and updating progress is gloating at all.
We want to keep up with what's happening and it is easier for us lazy
one's to let you tell us the score.
I'm sure the news must have traveled back to Stan by now. You know,
the Internet is really a small place. News travels fast.
I take it you haven't received any offers from C to C to discuss this
interesting challenge?
So how is your interest in the project? Do you feel like you want to
continue for a long time? Or are you getting bored?
Petra
Skywise
@f14g2000cwb.googlegroups.com:
True. I'm sure there's dozens of people that read this group who
never post. There's several groups I read daily and post maybe once
a month if that. Stan could be lurking, or someone else may have
relayed the message. Doesn't really matter to me. I'd actually like
to see him pop in here and say hi. But from what little email
exchange I've had with him I gather he probably doesn't have the
time.
> I take it you haven't received any offers from C to C to discuss this
> interesting challenge?
None yet. I'll admit I've found myself wondering "what if?", but
it's not something I would seek out.
> So how is your interest in the project? Do you feel like you want to
> continue for a long time? Or are you getting bored?
So far so good. I want to keep it going for a couple months at least.
The longer the better really. More data means my conclusions will be
on firmer ground.
> Petra