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Antarctica

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Weatherlawyer

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Apr 12, 2012, 5:38:20 PM4/12/12
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I don't know if things are going to get back to normal or if there has
been a seasonal change there. But take a look at this run over the
next 150 hours:

> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

First off, concentrate on the precipitation out of Africa and see
where it goes, straight into the continent and stays there.

Next time around, watch a confluence from South America join it.
The charts finish before any conclusions can be drawn.

It looks like it could get interesting though. It might even supply a
crib into the way that meteorological computer programmes might be
bent to include seismic disturbances.

Someone wake the hell up in the Met Office if you want to develop the
global model. Sleep now and the Yanks will grab your arse and give it
another good pounding.

See if I care!

Belba Grubb

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Apr 12, 2012, 9:50:50 PM4/12/12
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On Apr 12, 5:38 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Someone wake the hell up in the Met Office if you want to develop the
> global model. Sleep now and the Yanks will grab your arse and give it
> another good pounding.

Well, we did send John Paul Jones over that one time, but his cannon
fire kept missing - the balls kept veering to the right for some
reason. Aha! http://www.uwf.edu/atc/projects/coriolis/main.swf Now
the Met Office is doomed, or it would be if JPJ was in any shape to
give it another try. Otherwise, they can probably relax: the rest of
us just really don't have our hearts into it that much. :)

That BOM map has a practically textbook view of polar and Ferrel cells
around the South Pole just now. It's apparent on the global view,
too. Beautiful!

Barb

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 13, 2012, 5:30:24 AM4/13/12
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It is an instant explanation of the five day wave phenomenon too, if
you are interested in meteorology at all.

Would you believe they don't house reanalysis of it anywhere? They
have some lame half arsed stuff on the net but I can't use it. It's
like having to use a 50cc learner's bike after riding a real one.

Would you please be so kind as to not mention Coriolis in any of MY
threads in future. No offence taken, I accept you meant no insult.
It's just such doggerel it angers me just to see the phrase.



Weatherlawyer

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Apr 16, 2012, 3:53:13 AM4/16/12
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On Apr 12, 10:38 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I don't know if things are going to get back to normal or if there has
> been a seasonal change there. But take a look at this run over the
> next 150 hours:
>
> >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...
>
> First off, concentrate on the precipitation out of Africa and see
> where it goes, straight into the continent and stays there.
>
> Next time around, watch a confluence from South America join it.
> The charts finish before any conclusions can be drawn.
>
> It looks like it could get interesting though. It might even supply a
> crib into the way that meteorological computer programmes might be
> bent to include seismic disturbances.

A low on the southern tip of Greenland sending earthquake signals out
into the Atlantic midnight 16th, turns into a deep Low over Ireland
midnight on the 18th, dispersing over Britain by noon.

Dense Lows deepen off Antarctica (30 and 140 East) 06:00 UTC today
deepen and by 05:00 on the 17th disperse.

That's got to be worth a couple of sixes.
Unless they have already happened:

6.2 2012/04/15 05:57:39 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

5.0 2012/04/14 23:49:25 WEST CHILE RISE

6.5 2012/04/14 22:05:26 VANUATU

5.5 2012/04/14 20:53:55 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

5.9 2012/04/14 19:26:42 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA

5.3 2012/04/14 15:21:55 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

5.6 2012/04/14 15:13:11 KURIL ISLANDS

5.1 2012/04/14 12:18:27 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

6.2 2012/04/14 10:56:19 DRAKE PASSAGE

Maye a seven then?
I suppose it all depends on how certain the scientists are over the
next few forecasts.

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 17, 2012, 10:34:21 AM4/17/12
to
On Apr 16, 8:53 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > I don't know if things are going to get back to normal or if there has
> > been a seasonal change there. But take a look at this run over the
> > next 150 hours:
>
> > >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...
>
> > First off, concentrate on the precipitation out of Africa and see
> > where it goes, straight into the continent and stays there.
>
> > Next time around, watch a confluence from South America join it.
> > The charts finish before any conclusions can be drawn.
>
> A low on the southern tip of Greenland sending earthquake signals out
> into the Atlantic midnight 16th, turns into a deep Low over Ireland
> midnight on the 18th, dispersing over Britain by noon.
>
> Dense Lows deepen off Antarctica (30 and 140 East) 06:00 UTC today
> deepen and by 05:00 on the 17th disperse.
>
> That's got to be worth a couple of sixes.
> Unless they have already happened:

Nope. She's back on song folks.

(I'm just too good to be true.
I forecast earthquakes for you
You just watch them arrive
And be glad I'm alive
And thank heaven above
That I love doing this stuff
Because no one pays me enough.
Expletives deleted.

Expletive expletives but it's expletively explete
Yes it's expletively explete
But I can make it fit
Expletive expletives
Trust me when I say that.)

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 17, 2012, 10:48:22 AM4/17/12
to
Ooyah bugger man!
So pleased with myself I forgot to ram the message home:

17th of you know what you know when.

6.8 M. @ 07:13. EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

6.7 M. @ 03:50. OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

And guess who dropped on a Reader's Digest Atlas of The World in a
charity shop for 20p. yesterday, in plenty of time to keep this
immensely useful show on the road?

Who needs a government hand out now then?
New supercomputer my arse. They don't even know how to use the one
they've got.

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 17, 2012, 11:36:22 AM4/17/12
to
On Apr 16, 8:53 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Apr 12, 10:38 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > I don't know if things are going to get back to normal or if there has
> > been a seasonal change there. But take a look at this run over the
> > next 150 hours:
>
> > >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...
>
> > First off, concentrate on the precipitation out of Africa and see
> > where it goes, straight into the continent and stays there.
>
> > Next time around, watch a confluence from South America join it.
> > The charts finish before any conclusions can be drawn.
>
> > It looks like it could get interesting though. It might even supply a
> > crib into the way that meteorological computer programmes might be
> > bent to include seismic disturbances.
>
> A low on the southern tip of Greenland sending earthquake signals out
> into the Atlantic midnight 16th, turns into a deep Low over Ireland
> midnight on the 18th, dispersing over Britain by noon.
>
> Dense Lows deepen off Antarctica (30 and 140 East) 06:00 UTC today
> deepen and by 05:00 on the 17th disperse.
>
> That's got to be worth a couple of sixes.
The next roll of the dice for powerful quakes according to the BOM
Antarctic chart looks like the weekend. Take a look at the three dark
regions on Saturday:

>http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

It looks like 2 more Magnitude 6s but the Met Office is indicating
nothing of the osort. So it will probably be something else. More
tornadoes in the USA?

I have no idea. There is actually a boat anchor heading for the Baltic
on Thursday. We are more than due for a theatric phreatic but I really
shouldn't say.

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 18, 2012, 6:13:10 AM4/18/12
to
On Apr 17, 4:36 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> There is actually a boat anchor heading for the Baltic
> on Thursday.

There was. But it is gone now. It seems its all over when the Vanuatu
lady sings.

I wonder if this:
5.2 M. 2012/04/18. @ 01:18 VANUATU
is true for all series or just these types.

Anyway there is no boat anchor over the Baltic on today's run. The
charts are full of mice though.
And what is interesting about Saturday on the Antarctic chart runs is
that there is a confluence that puts pressure on the BRH quadrant as
far as the South Pole - TWICE:
06:00 Saturday and
06:00 Sunday.

I've no idea what that means, as usual of course. But it is
interesting.
Meanwhile, I should be looking at the NWS charts.
Maybe next week.

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 19, 2012, 11:21:54 AM4/19/12
to
On Apr 18, 11:13 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> There is a confluence that puts pressure on the Bottom right hand quadrant as
> far as the South Pole - TWICE:
> 06:00 Saturday and
> 06:00 Sunday.
>
> I've no idea what that means, as usual of course. But it is
> interesting.
> Meanwhile, I should be looking at the NWS charts.
> Maybe next week.

It disappears by Monday but take a look at how the Polar Low (if I may
be allowed a litle license) swells out into the Pacific to 40 S.

That happened last week, south of Australia, about when the two super-
quakes struck. It's too far off to take it all that seriously but
you'd have to be a fool to ignore it. (But don't let me stop you.)

Weatherlawyer

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Apr 21, 2012, 6:35:37 AM4/21/12
to
On Apr 19, 4:21 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Apr 18, 11:13 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > There is a confluence that puts pressure on the Bottom right hand quadrant as
> > far as the South Pole - TWICE:
> > 06:00 Saturday

Here's one ofd them:

2012/04/21
6.6 M. @ 01:16. 1.6 S. 134.3 E. NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA,
INDONESIA

> > and 06:00 Sunday.

Due any tims in th next few hours some distance from Indonesia I
presume as it is a 1/3 of the way around the continent.

> It disappears by Monday but take a look at how the Polar Low
> swells out into the Pacific to 40 S.

It is the end of the spell today but the North Atlantic becomes the
picture of last week with a patchy incoherence reminescent of that
large quake series.

The system off the Peninsula breeds a few more beforew the next spell
ends. Look out for early Monday about 5pm UT. Then a smaller event
some 24 hours later. followed by a lage one again (though it could be
a triple quake of smaller magnitudes) over by Wednesday evening.

Maybe a 5M. again on Thursday morning and then it gets interesting
Friday. Maybe the system will disperse over the Peninsula?
The spell doesn't end until the 29th though and Friday is only the
26th.

Meanwhile, Hlaf a continent away, there is another large system
brewing towards the end of the chart run.





Weatherlawyer

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Apr 22, 2012, 12:21:18 AM4/22/12
to
On Apr 21, 11:35 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > There is a confluence that puts pressure on the Bottom right hand quadrant as
> > > far as the South Pole - TWICE:
> > > 06:00 Saturday
>
> Here's one of them:
>
> 2012/04/21
> 6.6 M. @ 01:16. 1.6 S. 134.3 E. NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA,
> INDONESIA
>
> > > and 06:00 Sunday.

And here is the other:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120421_rpts.html

> Due any time in the next few hours

Storm Reports (1200 UTC - 1159 UTC
I am not sure about the times givewn by the storm reporters:

Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments


1723 5 SE GLYNDON CLAY MN 4682 9650 SPOTTER REPORTED 4 FOOT BY 6
FOOT PIECES OF TIN SCATTERED ON BOTH SIDES OF HIWAY 9. NUMEROUS
FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AREA WITH TOUCHDOWN. (FGF)


1824 4 SE KENT WILKIN MN 4640 9662 DAMAGE TO POLE BARN ...
TRAMPOLINE BLOWN ON TOP OF GARAGE ... AND ROOF DAMAGE TO TRAILER.
NUMEROUS FUNNELS REPORTED IN AREA WITH TOUCHDOWN. (FGF)


1940 5 S FERGUS FALLS OTTER TAIL MN 4621 9607 GRAIN BIN AND SHOP
DAMAGED. NUMEROUS FUNNELS REPORTED IN THE AREA WITH BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.
TIME APPROXIMATE. (FGF)


2011 4 E MILAN CHIPPEWA MN 4511 9583 BARN AND GRAINERYS DAMAGED
(MPX)

2023 6 NNE WALNUT GROVE REDWOOD MN 4431 9542 MULTIPLE REPORTS OF
FUNNELS WITH BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS OVER 10-15 MINUTES ... TIME IS ESTIMATED
AS IS LOCATION. (MPX)


2028 6 E BIG BEND CITY SWIFT MN 4515 9569 (MPX)


2030 2 NE FARWELL DOUGLAS MN 4577 9559 30-40 FOOT POLE BARN
TAKEN DOWN ... DAMAGE TO A SECOND BARN AS WELL. NEIGHBOR WITNESSED A
FUNNEL. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. (MPX)


2045 7 S LUCAN REDWOOD MN 4431 9541 TIME ESTIMATED BETWEEN 330
AND 400 PM CDT. DAMAGE TO A FLOWER SHOP. (MPX)


2127 3 SSE SPENCER CLAY IA 4310 9512 ROPE TORNADO ON THE GROUND
FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES (FSD)


2143 10 SSE DICKENS CLAY IA 4300 9495 ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT ONE
MINUTE (FSD)


> some distance from Indonesia I
> presume as it is a 1/3 of the way around the continent.


Well, it was certainly some distance from Indonesia.

It was some other things too but you'll have to ask god about that.

> > It disappears by Monday but take a look at how the Polar Low
> > swells out into the Pacific to 40 S.
>
> It is the end of the spell today but the North Atlantic becomes the
> picture of last week with a patchy incoherence reminiscent of that
> large quake series.


> The system off the Peninsula breeds a few more before the next spell
> ends.

This may offer us an insight about which wave was which.

My guess is that the more extraordinary one was the the system rubbing
up against the Antarctic Peninsula.
1. It's on the right longitude and
2. It behaves so differently.

Pity I got banned from the Storm Watch empire.
(The stupid buggers ain't got no sense of humour.)

> Look out for early Monday about 5pm UT. Then a smaller event
> some 24 hours later. followed by a large one again (though it could be
> a triple quake of smaller magnitudes) over by Wednesday evening.
>
> Maybe a 5M. again on Thursday morning and then it gets interesting
> Friday. Maybe the system will disperse over the Peninsula?
> The spell doesn't end until the 29th though and Friday is only the
> 26th.

What happens with tornado cells is that they sweep up from the South
West and run North East diurnally over a three day period so it might
pay to look more closely at the way the Lows off Antarctica are
forecast to behave.

I only gave a rough estimate, ignoring precipitation and the behaviour
of the anticyclones. Not guessing what was happening. (There was no
signal I could see in ther North Atlantic.)

> Meanwhile, Hlaf a continent away, there is another large system
> brewing towards the end of the chart run.

There are no fronts in the charts I was looking at but the Australian
site I got them from does produce a set with charts. Unfortunately it
is in two separate charts. I have no idea why. But they are stored
online as archives here:

> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean.shtml
> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/pacific_ocean.shtml

I wish I could hear what sounds they make.

OK! That's it then.

Problem solved,


...for now.

Any questions?
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