On Sep 6, 2:57 am, Skywise <
i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> "moonlightin" <
moonlight...@overthemoon.com> wrote innews:jxO1s.456008$Re2.2...@fx06.am4:
>
> >As you see I know nothing about the science but am just interested. I
> >look at the map fromhttp://
www2.demis.nl/quakes/ and sometimes there
> >seem to be patterns.
>
> The problem with "seem to be patterns" is that the human brain
> is wired for seeing patterns. So much so that it tends to see
> patterns where there are none. Think of optical illusions.
>
> This is called apophenia, and is a contributing factor in many
> a quack 'theory'.
>
>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
>
> What makes it such a problem in seismic circles is that quakes
> simply don't happen often enough, and that we have such a short
> historical record of them, that it's hard to say what patterns
> there may be or not.
>
> However, science (much to Weatherlawyer's chagrin) does offer
> tools to help determine if there is a pattern or not. This is
> simple statistical analysis. But still, due to a shortage of
> data, it can still be hard to see if there is anything.
>
> Specific to your question. No. There is no reason to suspect
> that a quake in the Phillipines and one in Central America
> are related in any meaningful way.
>
> Perhaps to help you understand, I will ask you, "why should
> they be related?"
I have just received an email from NASA informing me that there will
be a TV interview about Mars at 6pm today.
The thought struck me that because the USA was at war with several
countries and losing a big one at the same time as it's first
generation was a exploring the moon, it was not sharing the event with
mankind the way Neil Armstrong announced it.
The inevitable result was that all those trained experts whose
training cost millions and whose plant was irreplaceable went to waste
as the effort lost kudos.
Maybe I am a fool for seeing a pattern with that?
This research endeavour to Mars is now looking for patterns to show
that there are microbial life forms on Mars. Or to indicate there
isn't. (When you can't see something, you don't know it isn't there. (|
For what it's worth that is another pattern.))
I am not chagrined that science is totally against people with
apophenia. If I have it in spades I consider it a gift. I watch the
skies for patterns or used to. I used to see them all the time. In
fact I got pretty good at guessing the weather for my location.
I used to feel pretty good about that until I learned that anyone
could do it if he knew what patterns to look for.
It is the same with seismology. Or at least the best bits, the bits
without scientists in.
There is a chart for the southern hemisphere produced by the
Australian Meteorology people BOM. I have posted plenty of links to it
over the last few months due to the fact I have seen patterns in the
behaviour of this planet that indicates when large earthquakes are due
and patterns that indicate severe storms are due.
I don't propose to explain them all again here. That would be too much
of a pattern with you for my liking.
However if you wish to explore patterns this is a blog thread I was
working on at the start of this series:
>
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/08/17/new-moon-15-54-weather-for-the-17th-to-the-24th-august-2012
It is absolutely chocker with patterns and coincidenta including
computer problems.
All of which will be an heinous job for the OP to go through as I have
left explanations out of it for the most part. I don't really feel up
to explaining myself. I seldom do but I can be easily inveigled.
One more thing about this hard-wiring business. I take it you believe
in evolution?
I don't. It is a science designed by losers for losers. But that is me
seeing patterns again.
The thing is how do you explain this "problem"
> that the human brain
> is wired for seeing patterns. ?
My view of the matter is an heroic one. One that is mentioned in
passing in holy script. Not that the multitude of practitioners were
by any means correct for most of the time. The same holy script is
dead set against using uncanny powers for divination.
But used with care and rejecting the conclusions that defy logic, they
do help unravel the patterns god has used to make us and make us our
home.
Thanks for the opportunity to set this matter straight.
It should make a nice little thread for the blog to add to my
collection.
(The nice thing about a blog is that you can use evidence supplied by
scientists to dispute their conclusions even confound them if they
insist on ignorance.
Not something worth bothering with as at the very least it opens the
door to trolls and worse puts an end to doing something more useful.)
>
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/09/06/moron-apophenia