24th May 2009. 12:11. This could get really interesting.
Weatherlawyer
> This was the forecast I posted a couple of days back:
>
> The air above Britain will be just as wet as the last spell but its
> tendency to fall will not be as severe. Misty weather is the norm for
> spells at 12 and 6 of the clock.
>
> Tomorrow (starting the day before the lunar phase given) will be a
> heavy sponge, soggy and cold. The effect is rather like the Levant
> winds. High ice and low mist. Not much wind though, hence a tendency
> to breed hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
>
> We could very well see one though it's a little early. There is a lot
> of synergy in the system. If there is one, it will probably be in the
> Central Pacific at this time of year but a small one could hit
> Honduras / Belize.
>
> Edit:
>
> So far so good. I prefer to be wrong when I'd rather have sun. But
> there is something decidedly odd about this lot: (a couple of N
> Atlantic sea surface pressure charts)
>
> *******
>
> The next post spotted an anomaly I think happened:
>
> What is going on? They appear to be in the wrong order.
>
> Traditionally when two lows meet at the southern point of Greenland in
> that Newfoundland, Greenland, Britain triangle, they join forces not
> separate.
>
> Pity I missed the three other charts for each of the days.
>
> *******
>
> If at first you forecast thunder, be unsurprised if it all goes under.
> There's many a trip twixt cup and lip. And well made plans go oft
> asunder:
>
> Heavy rainfall warning [from the indian met office.]
>
> heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at most places with isolated
> extremely heavy falls (more than 25 cm) is likely over gangetic west
> bengal and north coastal orissa and isolated heavy to very heavy
> rainfall is also likely over northeastern states.
>
> isolated heavy rainfall is likely over andaman & nicobar islands and
> lakshadweep.
>
> cyclone warning
>
> gale wind speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph are likely to
> commence along and off west bengal coast from today, the 24th may 2009
> evening.
>
> squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely
> to commence along and off north orissa coasts from today, the 24th may
> evening.
>
> sea condition will be high along and off west bengal coast and rough
> to very rough along and off orissa coast.
>
> fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these
> coasts.
> So this is it. Nice weather for us is bad weather for those who can
> afford it least:http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/in/
4th January 2009, the lunar phase was at 11:56. [ignore the crap up to
comment #4 five to twelve isn't that far from eleven minutes past.]
From # 8: It is very unusual to get a pair of Mag 7s:
4th
5.4 M. 01:55:26 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.1 M. 00:55:36 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.3 M. 00:05:12 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.4 M. 00:00:38 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
3rd
5.2 M. 23:01:01 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
7.3 M. 22:33:42 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia<<<
5.0 M. 22:23:48 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.2 M. 22:07:48 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.6 M. 21:49:32 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
5.1 M. 21:30:48 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
4.8 M. 20:47:35 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia
7.6 M. 19:43:55 Near The North Coast Of Papua, Indonesia<<<
4.6 M. 17:52:50 Near North Coast Of New Guinea, P.n.g.
I think we'll see an end to all those tremors in central USA now and a
reversion to tornadic stuff once more.
From comment # 10:
Alexandria Rapides
Rapides Parish reporting a tornado near Ross Lane and highway 28 west.
Damage to a house with roof blown off on to car and power lines down.
Just south of the AEX airport.
Calhoun Mississippi, fire chief spotted three tornadoes moving north
to north east near Turkey Creek. No damage reported.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/
And some more PNG quakes:
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/show.dml/2872646
Some Atlantic charts there too. (Note the occluded fronts.)
Weatherlawyer
Some more excerpts from the Lunar Code:
When a major storm breaks out of the sea and decelerates the
components of the Low in the system filter out and go their separate
ways.
Almost immediately after this occurs, a large earthquake or a series
of them "happen".
You can call this coincidence if you like.
And just as coincidentally, these quakes will be in the range of Mag 6
and higher with their epicentres some 80 degrees from the place the
storm broached.
So that's West Ireland (no, yes, really) Iceland, a diagonal through
the middle of Greenland, the extreme north of Canada and somewhere in
the Middle of the Aleutians all sleeping out in the cold for safety.
In warmer climes, the east of Spain to the shores of the Cameroons and
on along the coast of Africa to Namibia where the arc moves east of
the mountains to the Brakenbergs in South Africa, off shore at Port
Elizabeth and that's it till it skirts Tasmania.
My money would be on the Loyalty Islands and Vanuatu. They are always
good to go.
And that ladies and gentlemen is the "window" of opportunity as far as
is practicable in thaumaturgy at the moment.
Seasoned morons, brainwashed to the diet of Seismology will require a
much smaller window and very small genius to jump through it for them.
Weatherlawyer
the code in my opinion. There is something about the clouds that
strike me as related to the weather we get when the USA gets
tornadoes.
Apparently as that Bangladesh storm collapsed, Belgium had a spot of
bother: >
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/3c2a9499b13e984b/49f95c6b1f69102e#49f95c6b1f69102e
Dawlish
> Precipitation here is much as expected but the weather is still not on
> the code in my opinion. There is something about the clouds that
> strike me as related to the weather we get when the USA gets
> tornadoes.
>
> Apparently as that Bangladesh storm collapsed, Belgium had a spot of
Pure coincidence, of course. Brazil has had a spot of bother as well,
but that didn't seem to show on your radar. You didn't forecast any of
these, as usual, but have now descended to commenting in hindsight as
if you did.
You've got to forecast these things W, or give up these ramblings.
Weatherlawyer
<exquipage>
I was wondering where the czjd had gone from my shoe.
I thought you had give up dogging every post. Turns out you were just
waiting around the corner with a new turd. So....
You can't take coincidence, huh? Musta hurt. Stick around you will
soon get used to it. There's more of that than there is of you, so I
think it is still worth the bother.
*******
TWIMC:
I don't read his posts often but now and again I get curious. He is a
petty civil servant not important enough to trust with any CDs that
must be left on trains. He lives near Exit Door so that should explain
it to most.
He thrives on attention, hence his immediate replies to any that
bother to try and help him. For the most part he post the obvious,
couched in quasi-dark-ages astrologer spin based on GFS charts:
Compare: >
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/0fef8bf71f0d3596#
with: >
http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/b73fe7e6e5711c10#
I posted something nasty about him once and all his leaves fell off
the tree. I removed it immediately but he managed to spot it and
kicked up quite a fuss. Poor "person". I felt sorry for him but he
won't learn.
There is a difference between the stupid and the foolish. The foolish
may learn, the stupid may be right occasionally. The stupid fools are
very confused and doubly confusing.
Ah well, so now you know the story of small brain. I need offer no
more.
Weatherlawyer
> On May 24, 1:04 pm, Weatherlawyer <Weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Not much wind though, hence a tendency
> > to breed hurricanes in the North Atlantic.
>
> > We could very well see one though it's a little early. There is a lot
> > of synergy in the system. If there is one, it will probably be in the
> > Central Pacific at this time of year but a small one could hit
> > Honduras / Belize.
>
>
> You can't win 'em all.
>
> Or maybe it was just a coincidence. All of them.
Weatherlawyer
About large magnitude quakes. Repetition for emphasis. (So you will
know and I will remember.)
When the Met Office gets their forecast wrong and I get mine too, then
beware a convergence of seismic waves reaching Mag. 7 or more.
In other words the world could have been on stand by for dealing with
one several hours if not days ahead. I suppose in days to come an
alert will be sent out whenever a severe weather warning is published.
Just for relevant authorities to be on the ball for whatever.
Then after the storm goes the wrong way (it went to the continental
side of The Channel when it was forecast to hit SW England. One of
those storms of the century we have every few years.) ...then after
the storm goes the wrong way...
The alert should be upgraded to: Severe earthquake imminent.
I'd have emergency service personnel on hand out of doors earth wide
(and maybe their families with them in order that they can work
unhindered by worry about their families.)
Whilst that would mean mobilising most of the fire and ambulance crews
on the planet initially it would be better than what isn't happening
now. Sooner or later more adept men than me will be able to pinpoint
zones most at risk.
Pipe dreams but one can hope.
Dawlish
>
> - Show quoted text -
This is just silly and needs comment. Your outcome success percentage
that I measured, over 2 months on an albeit small sample, is under
15%. Why would anyone bother listening to you when you cannot produce
any outcome stats better than that? Anyone could guess and do better.
You keep no records, propose ridiculous semi-forecasts, don't return
to any of the many that you get completely wrong, then continue to
post causal links which have absolutely no root in experimental
success and which therefore cannot be replicated......then you try to
make out you've had success!
Monitor what you do, carefully, over time. Keep your outcome stats in
the public domain. Forecast clearly and unambiguously. Then show
success and maybe someone will listen to you. If you can't do any of
that..........I'll leave the conclusion up to you.
Weatherlawyer
(latent forces or whatever)
That was taken out and the change in the weather due to with the
subterranean convergence of sound waves:
28May2009
08:24:43.0 16.7N 86.4W MS=7.3 M*GSR Caribbean Sea
08:24:48.2 15.9N 85.5W mb=6.3 M*ROM Honduras
08:24:44.4 16.6N 86.4W Mw=7.3 M*EMS Caribbean Sea
08:24:45.7 16.8N 86.2W M =7.1 M*NEI Caribbean Sea
http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/redpuma/redpuma_ami_list.html
the storm off North America and the imminent change of the spell:
24th May 12:11 to 31st May 03:22.
Most likely in that order as the case is yet to prove.
*******
03:00 is for thundery weather and XX:22 makes it very unstable. That
is, one pressure system will vie with another for pride of place over
the UK. Which is I suppose, a definition of thundery weather in the
first place. So a doubly unstable spell.
It will be interesting to see how that pans out.
If you have been out in the garden this fine weather you may have
noticed the heght of the moon last night was a lot lower than it is
tonight.
This is because the declination of the moon has gone from a
declination of 13 degrees to 17 degrees or thereabout: >
http://www.jgiesen.de/sunmoonpolar/ (28th and 29th of May 2009)
Note: No matter where you choose for the display, the declination
remains the same -it is reckoned from the angle of the sun or moon to
the equator.
Dawlish
> So back to this spell. There was still some hysteresis in the system
> (latent forces or whatever)
> That was taken out and the change in the weather due to with the
> subterranean convergence of sound waves:
> 28May2009
> 08:24:43.0 16.7N 86.4W MS=7.3 M*GSR Caribbean Sea
> 08:24:48.2 15.9N 85.5W mb=6.3 M*ROM Honduras
> 08:24:44.4 16.6N 86.4W Mw=7.3 M*EMS Caribbean Sea
> the storm off North America and the imminent change of the spell:
> 24th May 12:11 to 31st May 03:22.
>
> Most likely in that order as the case is yet to prove.
>
> *******
>
> 03:00 is for thundery weather and XX:22 makes it very unstable. That
> is, one pressure system will vie with another for pride of place over
> the UK. Which is I suppose, a definition of thundery weather in the
> first place. So a doubly unstable spell.
>
> It will be interesting to see how that pans out.
> If you have been out in the garden this fine weather you may have
> noticed the heght of the moon last night was a lot lower than it is
> tonight.
>
> This is because the declination of the moon has gone from a
>
> Note: No matter where you choose for the display, the declination
> remains the same -it is reckoned from the angle of the sun or moon to
> the equator.
...........or continue to talk the same old gobbledygook, trying to
ignore the difficult questions about forecast accuracy. No accuracy;
no use.