Animation showing how a forecast changes every 24 hours.

[Weatherlawyer]

http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/06/04/4th-5-9-m?cid=90493342#comment90493342

The reasoning from my point of view, is that these things are erratic
because of the unknown unknowns. There are known knowns; these are
used to program weather model runs.

There are things we know we know such as thickness. I am going to
resist a parallel allusion here.

We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there
are some things we do not know. When I say "we" of course, I mean you.

But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know
we don't know. And you never will as long as you keep your heads
shoved so firmly up your backsides.

But I am not going to be my usual Mr Nasty about that (today.) After
all we are all in it together. Well, you lot are.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Jun 4, 5:02 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/06/04/4th-5-9-m?cid=90493...

>
> The reasoning from my point of view, is that these things are erratic
> because of the unknown unknowns. There are known knowns; these are
> used to program weather model runs.
>
> There are things we know we know such as thickness. I am going to
> resist a parallel allusion here.

From the blog: Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

How do I tell them about the major resurgence in the Pacific?

No..
Wait...

Or is it tornadoes?

***

Tropical Storm Twenty in the S. Indian Ocean. (I did say it was a
complex set up.)

The season in the southern Indian Ocean starts in June or July IIRC,
so it must be coming to an end. Only it never ends there, not like the
North Atlantic which has a quite sharply defined start and end.

Thing get hectic from now until it runs off the map.

Looking at yesterday's BOM Antarctica at T +72 it quite clearly shows
a definition at 160 East that, if you follow it carefully runs across
the continent to 20 East (Australia to Africa.)

I was looking at the way the line bent instead following the isobars.

Well, we live and learn.
Some of us live.
And some of us live and ledarn.

Quite a lot of people get killed in the process.

[Weatherlawyer]

Here is another one:

Met Office view of 0000 UTC surface analysis

The UK is currently under the influence of a large area of low
pressure. Fronts circulating around this system will move north to
bring persistent rain over eastern Scotland. Troughs approaching from
the southwest will bring heavy, possibly thundery showers later today
across many parts.

***

When such a framework lies over the UK it signals the acoustic wave
that controls our weather/IS our weather world-wide, is producing
another tropical storm. Since the one in the West Pacific was due to
run out of the tropics and being marked down from a Cat 1 directly to
TS, I prsumed t would be another strom brewing up there.

It might still. But whatever the case the above quote from the Met
Office is from the dark ages. It won't matter what sort of super
computer they get or fail to get next. Without getting real about
their show they won't be putting it to much better use than magnetic
weather symbols on a BBC chart board from the 1970's.

Which IIRC wasn't as good as the 60's static board:

> http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/nov/19/obituary-jack-scott-bbc-weatherman
Come to think of it, the magnets were replaced by a disastrous digimap
that was almost completely camouflaged in green most of the time.

Must have looked good in black and white.

[Weatherlawyer]

I seem to have hit a wall however, the North Atlantic is still showing
a blocked Low for the rest of this spell.

Let's have a stab at that:

Met Office view of 0000 UTC surface analysis

An area of low pressure lies to the southwest of the UK, with a warm
front close to Cornwall.

This system will move slowly over the UK during Thursday and Friday,
deepening, with tightly-packed isobars describing very strong winds
across some southern parts.

High pressure lies across the Mediterranean with generally warm and
settled conditions here.

Updated: 0730 UTC on Thu 7 Jun 2012

***

A low off America 997 will produce apir of Mag 5 quakes befor it moes
out to the Mid Atlantic Ridge.

Several more complex quake patterns exist in the rmains of the system
over Western Europe until Noon today.

From noon the quakes look to be fewer but more severe, maybe the
suspects from midnight are just 4 to 4.8s, then.

From midnight tonight the American based low moves to join the Western
European one but the earthquake stuff has not diminished, so this
pattern looks to be holding back until the spell braaks. (Next phase
on th 11th.)

[Weatherlawyer]

On Jun 7, 9:27 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > How do I tell them about the major resurgence in the Pacific?
>
> > No..
> > Wait...
>
> > Or is it tornadoes?
>

> I seem to have hit a wall however, the North Atlantic is still showing
> a blocked Low for the rest of this spell.

I don't know what it is but there is something spectacular brewing on
the west of the Dateline from Friday evening tomorrow:

> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View T+ 42. From Midnight tonight it looks like a tropical storm but that is not how it develops.

Also there is a stron L shape on the Peninsula. I forgotten which hand
is which but that is either tornadoes or Tropical storms again.

There is some odd stuff evolving there. It is worth paying attention
to. I can't say there is much in the way of earthquakes, though
something on the coast at the 60th longitude East might resemble that,
late Sunday.

[Weatherlawyer]

> A low off America 997 will produce  a pair of Mag 5 quakes befor it moves

> out to the Mid Atlantic Ridge.
>

> Several more complex quake patterns exist in the remains of the system

> over Western Europe until Noon today.
>
> From noon the quakes look to be fewer but more severe, maybe the
> suspects from midnight are just 4 to 4.8s, then.
>
> From midnight tonight the American based low moves to join the Western
> European one but the earthquake stuff has not diminished, so this

> pattern looks to be holding back until the spell breaks. (Next phase
> on the 11th.)

I can't believe this was IT:
2107 6 W WHEATLAND PLATTE WY 4205 10508 TORNADO ON THE GROUND 6
TO 8 MILES WEST OF WHEATLAND ON PALMER CANYON ROAD. (CYS)

2132 7 S WHEATLAND PLATTE WY 4195 10496 TORNADO STILL ON THE
GROUND AND WILL CROSS INTERSTATE 25 JUST NORTH OF THE BORDEAUX EXIT.
(CYS)

2200 WHEATLAND PLATTE WY 4205 10496 A TORNADO MOVED FROM WEST OF
WHEATLAND TO NORTHEAST OF CHUGWATER. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE 5
HOUSES DESTROYED ... TRAIN DERAILED AND ONE PERSON INJURED BY THE
TORNADO (CYS)

2234 2 N WHITAKER LARAMIE WY 4144 10487 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.
(CYS)

2321 5 SE BYERS ARAPAHOE CO 3966 10416 VERY BRIEF TOUCHDOWN (BOU)

2328 8 ENE WHITAKER LARAMIE WY 4146 10474 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN
FOR SEVERAL MINUTES BEFORE DISSIPATING AT 528 PM. (CYS)

0018 12 SW AGATE ELBERT CO 3935 10411 (BOU)

0100 15 ESE KIOWA ELBERT CO 3926 10420 SEVEN HOMES REPORTED DAMAGE
WITH ONE MINOR INJURY (BOU)

0146 2 ENE CALHAN EL PASO CO 3905 10426 (PUB)

0245 7 NW NUNN WELD CO 4078 10487 (BOU)

It's no use, I shall just have to start drinking again!

[Skywise]

Weatherlawyer <weathe...@gmail.com> wrote in news:0b68d078-22f1-47ad-
a1c8-cce...@cu1g2000vbb.googlegroups.com:

> It's no use, I shall just have to start drinking again!

Does this mean you'll start making sense?

(ya know I just had to say something snarky, it's my job)

Brian

[Weatherlawyer]

On Jun 9, 4:44 am, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:0b68d078-22f1-47ad-
> a1c8-cce5485b7...@cu1g2000vbb.googlegroups.com:

>
> > It's no use, I shall just have to start drinking again!
>
> Does this mean you'll start making sense?
>
> (ya know I just had to say something snarky, it's my job)

You're welcome.
Lawrence was beginning to feel sorry for me.
It will be a relief for him.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Jun 7, 9:47 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Jun 7, 9:27 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
> > > How do I tell them about the major resurgence in the Pacific?
>
> > > No..
> > > Wait...
>
> > > Or is it tornadoes?
>
> > I seem to have hit a wall however, the North Atlantic is still showing
> > a blocked Low for the rest of this spell.
>
> I don't know what it is but there is something spectacular brewing on
> the west of the Dateline from Friday evening tomorrow:
>

> >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...T+ 42. From Midnight tonight it looks like a tropical storm but that is not how it develops.

>
> Also there is a stron L shape on the Peninsula. I forgotten which hand
> is which but that is either tornadoes or Tropical storms again.
>
> There is some odd stuff evolving there. It is worth paying attention
> to. I can't say there is much in the way of earthquakes, though
> something on the coast at the 60th longitude East might resemble that,
> late Sunday.

Four more persons perished in the heat wave sweeping across several
parts of West Bengal to take the toll to 52, even as light showers
Friday morning brought some relief to the people. Official sources
said that in Burdwan district two persons died -- 35-year-old Uttam
Karmakar, a truck helper, and 27-year-old daily wage earner Dipu
Khetrapal.

Karmakar was taken ill while he was loading rice in a truck under a
blazing sun at Memari yesterday and died soon after. Khretapal's body
was found lying near the DVC canal in Memari, police said.

In Purulia town, 60-year-old Phani Mahato fell unconscious while
walking on the road at noon and died on way to a hospital where the
doctors said it was a sunstroke case.

Seven people had died of sunstroke in Purulia district in the past
seven days, officials said. However, unofficial accounts put the
figure at 17.

In North 24-Parganas district, a middle-aged person died at
Hingalganj, additional SP of the region Mehboob Akhtar said.

In some districts in south Bengal, there were rains this morning for
an average 30 minutes giving relief to people from the intense heat.
Relief, however, was temporary as the sun soon started to blaze again.

Wrong footed me.

Temperature levels in Maracaibo were equalled this week in Venezuela's
hottest spotfest.

I can safely admit that I did not see that one coming. Classic weather
forecasts correct are they?

If not, sleep out tonight. Far from falling roof tiles and etceteras.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Jun 8, 10:36 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I can't believe this was IT:

> It's no use, I shall just have to start drinking again!
>

Presumably the build up to this went unnoticed?

"The Fuego volcano, located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) south of
this capital, on Sunday spewed a column of ash up to a kilometer
(about 3,300 feet) high, a government agency reported.

The National Vulcanology Institute said in a communique that the
volcano, which rises 3,763 meters (12,230 feet) above sea level, on
Sunday erupted effusively, according to seismic recordings and the
images received from a camera at the observatory at Panimache.

The volcano's activity presently consists of emissions of red hot lava
being hurled from the crater to a height of some 500 meters (1,625
feet), the agency said.

The institute went on to say that three rivers of lava were emerging
from the crater and moving down the sides of the mountain.

In addition, two emissions of ash rising from 800 to 1,000 meters
(about 2,600 feet to 3,300 feet) were blowing southeast.

The vulcanology institute warned that although the eruption presently
consists of an effusion of lava, the possibility exists that in the
coming hours the volcano's activity will increase to a pyroclastic
flow of the kind experienced on May 19 and May 25."

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/06/10/fuego-volcano-erupts-guatemalan-authorities-report/

[steve]

Tchao.

it might be better to take into account the monitoring of the weather with
brand-new innovations prior to the debate about the storm;
It is also worth detailing that everyone should read the following article
Renny MacKay, a spokesman for
Mr. Mead, said the governor was committed to figuring out a long-term fix for
about 20 homes whose water was found to contain contaminants while the
source of the pollution is studied.
In the meantime, the state has offered
to provide cisterns for local residents, using $750,000 allocated by the
Wyoming Legislature this year. Under the plan, people here would still have
to pay a fee to have their water hauled from the nearby community of
Pavillion, at a cost that could run more than $150 per month.
For the last
few years, a small group of farmers and landowners scattered across this
rural Wyoming basin have complained that their water wells have been
contaminated with chemicals from a controversial drilling technique known as
hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.
For the last few years, a small group of
farmers and landowners scattered across this rural Wyoming basin have
complained that their water wells have been contaminated with chemicals from
a controversial drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or
fracking.
Renny MacKay, a spokesman for Mr. Mead, said the governor was
committed to figuring out a long-term fix for about 20 homes whose water was
found to contain contaminants while the source of the pollution is studied.

Encana has maintained that water in the area is naturally poor and that its
operations did not cause the problems — fracking had also occurred before the
company purchased the gas field. Moreover, the energy industry has
steadfastly pointed out that there has never been any conclusive link between
fracking and water contamination.
Encana Oil and Gas (U.S.A.) Inc., which
bought the Pavillion gas field in 2004 and operates about 125 gas wells in
the area, is already providing jugs of drinking water for Mr. Locker and 20
other households. It is unclear whether Encana will defray any of the cost of
the cistern water.

Bye

[Weatherlawyer]

Nicely segued from my post about the weather. You have a finely honed
head on your shoulder. What did you do with the original?

And how are they going to make a serious investigation for the sake of
20 properties when the liquid they are pumping into the ground could
be anything from human and farm sewerage through crude oil sludge
emulsions to Agent Orange?

There are no laws to make the companies doing the fracking tell anyone
what they are doing.

Crude oil sludge forms when the molecular orbitals of individual
straight chain hydrocarbons are blended by proximity, producing an
induced dipole force that resists separation.

The waste produced at well heads is or was generally dumped in the
nearby rivers or on the adjacent property.

As the heavier straight chain hydrocarbons react, they coagulate and
settle in the tank sides and bottom as viscous gel sludge or wax.

Lost volatiles leads to layers of concentrated fractions of heavier
sludge, that is less fluid. As it also contains metal corroding acids
and metal eating bacteria, the idea of a quick fix is not to be
sniffed at (unless you are resident at one of those 20 properties.)

The more things stay the same the less the nothings change:

> http://www.gutenberg.org/files/4712/4712-h/4712-h.htm