New Orleans quandry
MVolz
storm dumping more than 10" of rain on this city, 5' below sea
level, could flood out over 500,000. If the 30" that hit Houston
last June would have hit the Mississippi Delta there would be no
more New Orleans. The city continues to sink as pumps keep
draining both surface waters and aquifiers making it sink even
more. The "wisdom" of the Corps of Engineers years ago in damming
up the natural change in flow of the Mississippi into the
Atchafalaya Basin. Which also keeps moving the Lousiana coastline
further inland every year. What to do? Let nature take its
course?
Paper: Houston Chronicle
Date: SAT 12/01/01
KEEPING ITS HEAD ABOVE WATER: New Orleans faces doomsday
cenario
By ERIC BERGER, Houston Chronicle
Science Writer Staff
New Orleans is sinking.
And its main buffer from a hurricane, the protective Mississippi
River delta, is quickly eroding
away, leaving the historic city perilously close to disaster.
So vulnerable, in fact, that earlier this year the Federal
Emergency Management Agency ranked
the potential damage to New Orleans as among the three likeliest,
most castastrophic disasters facing this country.
The other two? A massive earthquake in San Francisco, and,
almost prophetically, a terrorist
attack on New York City.
The New Orleans hurricane scenario may be the deadliest of all.
In the face of an approaching storm, scientists say, the city's
less-than-adequate evacuation routes would strand 250,000 people
or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city
drowned under 20 feet of water.
Thousands of refugees could land in Houston.
Economically, the toll would be shattering.
Southern Louisiana produces one-third of the country's seafood,
one-fifth of its oil and
one-quarter of its natural gas. The city's tourism, lifeblood of
the French Quarter, would cease to exist. The Big Easy might
never recover.
And, given New Orleans ' precarious perch, some academics wonder
if it should be rebuilt at all.
It's been 36 years since Hurricane Betsy buried New Orleans 8
feet deep. Since then a deteriorating ecosystem and
increased development have left the city in an ever more
precarious position. Yet the problem went unaddressed for
decades by a laissez-faire government, experts said.
"To some extent, I think we've been lulled to sleep," said Marc
Levitan, director of Louisiana State University's
hurricane center.
Hurricane season ended Friday, and for the second straight year
no hurricanes hit the United States. But the season
nonetheless continued a long-term trend of more active seasons,
forecasters said. Tropical Storm Allison became this
country's most destructive tropical storm ever.
Yet despite the damage Allison wrought upon Houston, dropping
more than 3 feet of water in some areas, a few days
later much of the city returned to normal as bloated bayous
drained into the Gulf of Mexico.
The same storm dumped a mere 5 inches on New Orleans , nearly
overwhelming the city's pump system. If an
Allison-type storm were to strike New Orleans , or a Category 3
storm or greater with at least 111 mph winds, the
results would be cataclysmic, New Orleans planners said.
"Any significant water that comes into this city is a dangerous
threat," Walter Maestri, Jefferson Parish emergency
management director, told Scientific American for an October
article.
"Even though I have to plan for it, I don't even want to think
about the loss of life a huge hurricane would cause."
New Orleans is essentially a bowl ringed by levees that protect
the city from the Mississippi River to its south and
Lake Pontchartrain to the north. The bottom of the bowl is 14
feet below sea level, and efforts to keep it dry are only
digging a deeper hole.
During routine rainfalls the city's dozens of pumps push water
uphill into the lake. This, in turn, draws water from the
ground, further drying the ground and sinking it deeper, a
problem known as subsidence.
This problem also faces Houston as water wells have sucked the
ground dry. Houston's solution is a plan to convert to
surface drinking water. For New Orleans , eliminating pumping
during a rainfall is not an option, so the city continues
to sink.
A big storm, scientists said, would likely block four of five
evacuation routes long before it hit. Those left behind
would have no power or transportation, and little food or
medicine, and no prospects for a return to normal any time
soon.
"The bowl would be full," Levitan said. "There's simply no place
for the water to drain."
Estimates for pumping the city dry after a huge storm vary from
six to 16 weeks. Hundreds of thousands would be
homeless, their residences destroyed.
The only solution, scientists, politicians and other Louisiana
officials agree, is to take large-scale steps to minimize the
risks, such as rebuilding the protective delta.
Every two miles of marsh between New Orleans and the Gulf
reduces a storm surge - which in some cases is 20 feet
or higher - by half a foot.
In 1990, the Breaux Act, named for its author, Sen. John Breaux,
D-La., created a task force of several federal
agencies to address the severe wetlands loss in coastal
Louisiana. The act has brought about $40 million a year for
wetland restoration projects, but it hasn't been enough.
"It's kind of been like trying to give aspirin to a cancer
patient," said Len Bahr, director of Louisiana Gov. Mike
Foster's coastal activities office.
The state loses about 25 square miles of land a year, the
equivalent of about one football field every 15 minutes. The
fishing industry, without marshes, swamps and fertile wetlands,
could lose a projected $37 billion by the year 2050.
University of New Orleans researchers studied the impact of
Breaux Act projects on the vanishing wetlands and
estimated that only 2 percent of the loss has been averted.
Clearly, Bahr said, there is a need for something much
bigger. There is some evidence this finally may be happening.
A consortium of local, state and federal agencies is studying a
$2 billion to $3 billion plan to divert sediment from the
Mississippi River back into the delta. Because the river is
leveed all the way to the Gulf, where sediment is dumped
into deep water, nothing is left to replenish the receding
delta.
Other possible projects include restoration of barrier reefs and
perhaps a large gate to prevent Lake Pontchartrain from
overflowing and drowning the city.
All are multibillion-dollar projects. A plan to restore the
Florida Everglades attracted $4 billion in federal funding, but
the state had to match it dollar for dollar. In Louisiana, so
far, there's only been a willingness to match 15 or 25 cents.
"Our state still looks for a 100 percent federal bailout, but
that's just not going to happen," said University of New
Orleans geologist Shea Penland, a delta expert.
"We have an image and credibility problem. We have to convince
our country that they need to take us seriously, that
they can trust us to do a science-based restoration program."