Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
Jim McGinn
Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
This is an open letter to the community from Chris Landsea.
Dear colleagues,
After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from
participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to
view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having
become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the
IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.
With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for
my decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC
process. The IPCC is a group of climate researchers from around the
world that every few years summarize how climate is changing and how it
may be altered in the future due to manmade global warming. I had served
both as an author for the Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the
2nd Assessment Report in 1995 and the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001,
primarily on the topic of tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons).
My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclones more generally, has been
widely cited by the IPCC. For the upcoming AR4, I was asked several
weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author - Dr. Kevin Trenberth
- to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. As I had in the past,
I agreed to assist the IPCC in what I thought was to be an important,
and politically-neutral determination of what is happening with our
climate.
Shortly after Dr. Trenberth requested that I draft the Atlantic
hurricane section for the AR4's Observations chapter, Dr. Trenberth
participated in a press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on
the topic "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring
more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity" along with other media
interviews on the topic. The result of this media interaction was
widespread coverage that directly connected the very busy 2004 Atlantic
hurricane season as being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
occurring today. Listening to and reading transcripts of this press
conference and media interviews, it is apparent that Dr. Trenberth was
being accurately quoted and summarized in such statements and was not
being misrepresented in the media. These media sessions have potential
to result in a widespread perception that global warming has made recent
hurricane activity much more severe.
I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press
conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting
hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in
that press conference had performed any research on hurricane
variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All
previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has
shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of
tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC
assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global
warming signal found in the hurricane record.
Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent
credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon
hurricane will likely be quite small. The latest results from the
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Knutson and Tuleya, Journal of
Climate, 2004) suggest that by around 2080, hurricanes may have winds
and rainfall about 5% more intense than today. It has been proposed that
even this tiny change may be an exaggeration as to what may happen by
the end of the 21st Century (Michaels, Knappenberger, and Landsea,
Journal of Climate, 2005, submitted).
It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an
unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global
warming. Given Dr. Trenberth¹s role as the IPCC¹s Lead Author
responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements
so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern
that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed
objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity. My
view is that when people identify themselves as being associated with
the IPCC and then make pronouncements far outside current scientific
understandings that this will harm the credibility of climate change
science and will in the longer term diminish our role in public policy.
My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues to
how he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns. I did caution
Dr. Trenberth before the media event and provided him a summary of the
current understanding within the hurricane research community. I was
disappointed when the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I
brought up the misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the
authority of the IPCC. Specifically, the IPCC leadership said that Dr.
Trenberth was speaking as an individual even though he was introduced in
the press conference as an IPCC lead author; I was told that that the
media was exaggerating or misrepresenting his words, even though the
audio from the press conference and interview tells a different story
(available on the web directly); and that Dr. Trenberth was accurately
reflecting conclusions from the TAR, even though it is quite clear that
the TAR stated that there was no connection between global warming and
hurricane activity. The IPCC leadership saw nothing to be concerned with
in Dr. Trenberth's unfounded pronouncements to the media, despite his
supposedly impartial important role that he must undertake as a Lead
Author on the upcoming AR4.
It is certainly true that "individual scientists can do what they wish
in their own rights", as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership
suggested. Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly
crucial to progress in climate science. However, this case is not an
honest scientific discussion conducted at a meeting of climate
researchers. Instead, a scientist with an important role in the IPCC
represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position
to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the
busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in
direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to
conclusions in the TAR. This becomes problematic when I am then asked to
provide the draft about observed hurricane activity variations for the
AR4 with, ironically, Dr. Trenberth as the Lead Author for this chapter.
Because of Dr. Trenberth's pronouncements, the IPCC process on our
assessment of these crucial extreme events in our climate system has
been subverted and compromised, its neutrality lost. While no one can
"tell" scientists what to say or not say (nor am I suggesting that), the
IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and entrusted to him to
carry out this duty in a non-biased, neutral point of view. When
scientists hold press conferences and speak with the media, much care is
needed not to reflect poorly upon the IPCC. It is of more than passing
interest to note that Dr. Trenberth, while eager to share his views on
global warming and hurricanes with the media, declined to do so at the
Climate Variability and Change Conference in January where he made
several presentations. Perhaps he was concerned that such speculation -
though worthy in his mind of public pronouncements would not stand up
to the scrutiny of fellow climate scientists.
I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process
that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being
scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr.
Trenberth's actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4,
I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4.
Sincerely, Chris Landsea
H2-PV NOW
Jim McGinn wrote:
> This is an open letter to the community from Chris Landsea.
Chris Landsea has been known to make himself useful to ORGANIZED CRIME
in science hoaxing sweeping AGW (Man-made Global Warming) under the
rug.
Exxon and Killer Koch Brother$ are the two organized crime ring$
Land$ea mo$t often a$$ociate$ with, including a network of "think tank$
and in$titute$" funded by oil million$.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=167 ExxonWeb
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=150 Kochtopus
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=159 Kochtopus
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=161 Kochtopus
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=162 Kochtopus
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=360 Tech Central
All People
http://snipurl.com/owka
Results about 693 for Chris Landsea CATO Institute.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=361 Cato All
People
http://snipurl.com/owkf
Results about 326 for Chris Landsea SEPP | "Fred Singer".
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=174 Singer Michaels
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=175 Singer McKitrick
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=176 Singer Circle
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=177 Dirty Ten
http://snipurl.com/owki
Results about 155 for Chris Landsea "Patrick Michaels".
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=174 Singer Michaels
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=92 Balliunas Michaels
http://snipurl.com/owkj
Results about 114 for Chris Landsea OISM.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=367 Fred Seitz
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=391 TASSC
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=392 TASSC plus
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=392 TASSC plus
http://snipurl.com/owko
Results about 281 for Chris Landsea "Marshall Institute".
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=96 George C.
Marshall Inst.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=97 George C.
Marshall Inst.
http://snipurl.com/owkq
Results about 167 for Chris Landsea "Sallie Baliunas".
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=381 Balliunas Soon
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=382 Balliunas Soon
Raymond Arritt
> January 17, 2005
>
>
> Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
> even this tiny change may be an exaggeration as to what may happen by
> the end of the 21st Century (Michaels, Knappenberger, and Landsea,
> Journal of Climate, 2005, submitted).
This was a comment on a previous paper by Knutson and Tuleya (2004, J.
Climate 17, 3477-3495). Knutson and Tuleya responded with a methodical
yet tactful disassembly that cast Michaels et al. in quite an
embarassing light (Knutson and Tuleya, 2005, J. Climate 18, 5183–5187).
The gist of Knutson and Tuleya's response is well summarized in the
second sentence of their abstract: "In contrast to Michaels et al., who
**exclusively emphasize uncertainties that lead to smaller future
changes,** uncertainties are noted that could lead to either smaller or
larger changes in future intensities of hurricanes than those summarized
in the original study, with accompanying smaller or larger societal
impacts." (emphasis added)
I'd recommend reading the full exchange. It's very informative, from
several points of view.
> I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process
> that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being
> scientifically unsound.
Which is ironic in the extreme given his willingness to collaborate with
Pat Michaels.
Raymond Arritt
Michaels et al. (2005, hereafter MKL) recall the question of Ellsaesser:
“Should we trust models or observations?” In reply we note that if we
had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more
than models, but unfortunately observations of the future are not
available at this time.
Coby Beck
news:jjWZf.45709$_S7....@newssvr14.news.prodigy.com...
> January 17, 2005
>
>
> Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
>
yep. Paid shill, working his way down the list.
--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")
Science Cop
Chris Landsea -- Known Associate of Organized Crime Figures.
Jim McGinn wrote:
> This is an open letter to the community from Chris Landsea.
Chris Landsea has been known to make himself useful to ORGANIZED CRIME
frugal earth dweller
> unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global
> warming.
>
Jim McGinn
"frugal earth dweller" <remember@easter_island.disaster> wrote in message
news:MPG.1ea2259f5...@text.giganews.com...
But Frugal,
How can you be so frugal with respect to appreciating a man who does what he
believes is the right thing to do?
Global Warming @ARMY.com
What Landsea believes is the right thing to do is associate with known
felony fraud science hoaxers lining thier pockets to lie for dirty
polluter industry employers.
Chris Landsea -- Known Associate of Organized Crime Figures.
Jim McGinn wrote:
> This is an open letter to the community from Chris Landsea.
Chris Landsea has been known to make himself useful to ORGANIZED CRIME
Lloyd Parker
And as published in Science last year, there is now evidence that GW is
causing more severe storms.
vendicar
> >Chris Landsea Leaves IPCC
"Lloyd Parker" <lpa...@emory.edu> wrote
> And as published in Science last year, there is now evidence that GW is
> causing more severe storms.
Doesn't look like Landsea can take the pressure of being wrong - again.