Net warming bias from nonclimatic influences in surface data -- McKitrick and Michaels, Clim Res 26:159, 2004
Steve Schulin
extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data", Clim Res
26:159173 (May 25, 2004)]
This looks similar to the McKitrick paper which our own Robert Grumbine
offered to help with some years ago. It was then titled "The Influence
of Economic Activity on the Measurement of Global Warming".
Conclusion: "Overall, the results of this study support the hypothesis
that published temperature data are contaminated with nonclimatic
influences that add up to a net warming bias, and that efforts should be
made to properly quantify these effects."
Here's the abstract, followed by Intro and Discussion/Conclusions
sections:
CLIMATE RESEARCH
Clim Res Vol. 26: 159173, 2004 Published May 25
A test of corrections for extraneous signals in gridded surface
temperature data*
Ross McKitrick - rmck...@uoguelph.ca - Department of Economics,
University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada
Patrick J. Michaels - Department of Environmental Sciences, University
of Virginia, Clark Hall, 291 McCormick Rd, PO Box 400123,
Charlottesville, Virginia 22904-4123, USA
ABSTRACT: Monthly surface temperature records from 1979 to 2000 were
obtained from 218 individual stations in 93 countries and a linear trend
coefficient determined for each site. This vector of trends was
regressed on measures of local climate, as well as indicators of local
economic activity (income, gross domestic product [GDP] growth rates,
coal use) and data quality. The spatial pattern of trends is shown to be
significantly correlated with non-climatic factors, including economic
activity and sociopolitical characteristics of the region. The analysis
is then repeated on the corresponding Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) gridded data, and very similar correlations appear,
despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic effects. The
socioeconomic effects in the data are shown to add up to a net warming
bias, although more precise estimation of its magnitude will require
further research.
KEY WORDS: Global warming · Temperature measurement · Data quality
* Extra information, including the data base and computations, available
at: http://www.uoguelph.ca./~rmckitri/research/gdptemp.html
© Inter-Research 2004 · http://www.int-res.com
---
INTRODUCTION
Concern is routinely expressed about nonclimatic signals in temperature
records. Past studies have typically focused on false warming trends
induced by differential characteristics of urban vs. rural landscapes
(e.g. Jones et al. 1990, Hansen et al. 2001), inhomogeneities due to
discontinuous station maintenance or record-keeping (e.g. Jones & Moberg
2003) and large-scale land-use changes (Pielke et al. 2002, Kalnay & Cai
2003). Significant urban heat island biases in temperature records have
been found in South Africa (Balling & Hughes 1996), Vienna, Austria
(Böhm 1998), China (Jones et al. 1990), Alaska (Magee et al. 1999),
Japan (Fujibe 1995), India (Hingane 1996) and others.
Population is typically used as a proxy for extraneous bias, and a
common quantification device is to compare rural to urban stations (e.g.
Jones et al. 1990, Gallo et al. 1999). This test only suffices if
population is a sufficient proxy for nonclimatic temperature trends, but
even small villages can experience land-use changes that cause heat
island effects (e.g. Torok et al. 2001). Also, an urban-rural comparison
is only possible in places where temperature is densely enough sampled
that adjacent urban-rural pairs are available, which is not the case
everywhere.
Some researchers claim that while nonclimatic factors are present in the
raw data, they have been adequately identified and removed. The recent
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I
Summary for Policy Makers, referring to a graph of globally averaged
temperature data, says only: ąThese numbers take into account various
adjustments, including urban heat island effects.ą (IPCC 2001, p. 1).
Beyond that, the possibility of significant nonclimatic effects are not
mentioned in the Summary. Within the report itself the discussion of
urban heat island effects is brief and leaves the impression that
non-climatic signals have been successfully factored out of the raw
weather station data. Others have argued that specific nonclimatic
effects, such as urban heat islands, only add trivial amounts to what
are principally climate trends in published, gridded series (Jones et
al. 1990). Hence, the perceived
validity of temperature data rests on the claim, not that there are no
Śfingerprintsą of socioeconomic patterns in them, but that they are too
small to matter or that they have been identified and removed during the
gridding process.
We test this assertion in this paper. We first examine a sample of 218
monthly mean temperature records from the Goddard Institute of Space
Studies (GISS) collection, over the 1979 to 2001 interval, and compute
the trend at each site. We chose this interval because it is concurrent
with the record of tropospheric temperatures estimated by the Microwave
Sounding Units (MSUs) on satellite platforms, a record which shows
considerably less warming, on a globally averaged basis, than
ground-based temperatures (Christy et al. 2003). We show that after
controlling for fixed regional variations in climate, including a
specific indicator of greenhouse warming, the spatial pattern of trends
is significantly correlated with a vector of economic activity and
social conditions which are chosen as proxies for a range of potential
nonclimatic influences on published temperature data. We then compute
trends for the same interval in the gridded land-based data used by the
IPCC in grid cells containing the 218 GISS station locations. We show
that the same socioeconomic fingerprint remains even after all
homogeneity adjustments. These extraneous effects add up to a
significant net warming bias at the global level.
The nonclimatic effects are measured while simultaneously controlling
for a Śgreenhouseą warming factor. Based on theoretical aspects of
greenhouse warming quantified by Staley & Jurica (1970), Michaels et al.
(2000) found that the rate of increase in average temperature is
directly proportional to the amount of dry air (on a climatological
basis) within each IPCC grid cell. In winter, when the mean grid cell
dewpoint was below 0°C, the rate of warming was directly proportional to
the average grid cell surface barometric pressure. When the dewpoint was
above 0°C, the rate of recent warming was statistically insignificant.
This result is consistent with physical explanations of warming due to
infrared absorption and its rather striking presentation (Fig. 1) allows
its inclusion in this study as a specific (though not exhaustive)
indicator of greenhouse warming. Our results will show that indeed the
amount of dry air predicts the dominant fraction of warming in the cold
season, but outside the dry/cold regions the measured temperature change
is primarily explained by economic and social variables.
Fig. 1. Relationship between average grid cell pressure and grid cell
temperature change for the Northern Hemisphere winter half-year. Dry
grid cells: grid cells with a seasonal average dewpoint temperature less
than 0°C. From Michaels et al. (2000) [sbs note: Fig. 1 is a graph which
plots, for two types of grid cells, decadal temperature anomaly with
average sea-level pressure. The dry grid cells show a striking increase
in decadal temperature change as sea-level pressure increases from 1000
to 1030 hPa. The remaining grid cells show no difference in temperature
trend as pressure increases.]
Proposing a causal relationship between national socio-economic
conditions (such as income and literacy) and the quality of local
meteorological data requires justification. A possible mechanism by
which economic activity, and attendant land-use changes, affects
measures of sensible heat is an induced change in the local Bowen ratio
(e.g. Friedrich et al. 2000, Pielke et al. 2003). Other mechanisms might
include changes to local atmospheric chemistry from air pollution. Data
quality can also be affected by economic conditions. Climate stations
are costly to construct, maintain and operate. In the US, this has at
times required a full time national staff of over 450 trained personnel
(Linacre 1992, p. 31). Meteorological equipment must be kept in good
working order, with recommended inspections once a week or immediately
after a severe weather disturbance, as well as full maintenance and
calibration twice a year, with immediate repair or replacement of
defective instruments (Environment Canada, Guidelines for Cooperative
Climatological Autostations Version 2.0). In much of the world, the
resources needed to attain these standards would be considered a
Śluxury.ą Since public resources are required, the quality of station
data is not independent of general economic conditions.
Measures to protect data quality can be resource-intensive. For
instance, redundant weather stations can be set up in remote and rural
locations to increase the spatial sample and control for urban heat
bias, but then staffing costs rise since stations are still required at
urban airports. The burden of maintaining the network of weather
stations has evidently proven onerous: two-thirds of the worldąs
stations have been closed since the 1970s, taking the number of active
sites in the Global Historical Climatology Network from about 6000 down
to 2000 over the past two and a half decades (Peterson & Vose 1997).
In countries with relatively low educational attainment, skilled labour
is scarce and hence its real cost is higher than in countries with
advanced educational systems. This constrains the ability of a national
meteorological service to hire and retain technical staff for data
collection and managing meteorological equipment. While there is no a
priori reason to assume this will bias temperature trends up (or down),
it could lead to a warming bias if non-urban stations become under-used,
if Stevenson Screens are allowed to discolor, or if cold weather events
interfere with data collection more often than warm events. An observed
spatial pattern of published surface trends and the spatial pattern of
educational attainment does not imply anything about the competence of
individuals who look after the meteorological instruments, instead the
concern is that economic conditions impose a constraint on the overall
quality control process.
---
... DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
It is well-established that the basic land-based weather station
temperature data have been affected by local factors related to economic
growth and land-use changes, but claims have been made that these
effects have been identified and removed in gridded records. This study
provides evidence that the contamination has not been removed, and that
it adds up to a net warming bias at the globally averaged level.
Consequently surface temperature data, including the IPCC gridded cell
series, should not be interpreted as if they only measure Śclimate.ą
They reflect the influence of many things, including a complex blend of
local economic and social factors. Some of these exert an indirect
influence on local temperatures but have nothing to do with the global
climate, while others have nothing to do with temperature at all but
instead affect data quality control. This study provides evidence that
after controlling for these, the observed rate of temperature change is
noticeably lower in a global sample, and depending on how economic
influences are removed, could be as low as that observed in the
satellite record. Hence, attempts to identify the magnitude of a global
Śgreenhouseą climate signal on surface data without properly removing
the extraneous biases (e.g. Tett et al. 1999) risks exaggerating the
perceived influence of atmospheric CO2 levels.
If the post-1979 temperature trends were lower than is typically
thought, the question arises whether a similar analysis conducted over
the 1961 to 1979 interval would indicate larger reductions in
temperature than previously thought, and if so, how or whether such
changes could be explained based on current understanding of climate
forcing mechanisms. It is not necessarily the case that socioeconomic
factors would add up to a net warming bias as they appear to do after
1979, because the international economic situation was not the same in
the 2 decades before 1979 as those after. For instance, the 1970s was
marked by persistently weak real income growth in western economies,
which gave way to rapid growth in the mid-1980s. Also, the Soviet Union
did not experience a calamity comparable to 1990-1991. However this is
certainly an interesting direction for further research.
As with any application of statistics the results embed particular
modeling assumptions. Eq. (2) fits the spatial pattern of surface
temperature trends to the spatial pattern of dry air pressure, some
geographic factors and socioeconomic factors. Establishing such a fit is
not proof of causality; to some extent one must accept the premises of
the equation. This includes the idea that fitting a linear trend through
monthly averages of temperature observations over the post-1979 interval
provides meaningful climatic data. Since temperature is an intensive
thermodynamic variable, averages taken over time or space do not have a
unique physical relationship with the underlying temperature field
(Essex & McKitrick 2002), thus linear time trends at best support a
heuristic interpretation. Another premise of Eq. (2) is that the
explanatory variables can be interpreted as they stand, rather than
being treated as proxies for some other variables with quite different
interpretations. Some of the specification tests in Table 7 addressed
this potential concern. Overall, the results of this study support the
hypothesis that published temperature data are contaminated with
nonclimatic influences that add up to a net warming bias, and that
efforts should be made to properly quantify these effects.
Josh Halpern
Steve Schulin wrote:
You might want to wander over to
http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science/mckitrick3.html
to see McKitricks little trick with those vectors. It ain't pretty
though and
folks with standards might want to avert their eyes.
josh halpern
David Ball
<steve....@nuclear.com> wrote:
>[Ref: Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels, "A test of corrections for
>extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data", Clim Res
>26:159173 (May 25, 2004)]
Is this the same McKitrick who can't do a simple average? Who
does an audit by patently NOT following the author's methodology?
Don't bother answering, Steve. I already know the answers.
Roger Coppock
With "Cee-OH-TOO" pseudo-scientists, we are probably dealing
with a cherry picked set of facts. A report that uses just 218
stations over only 21 years, out of a record that includes
thousands of stations over more than a century does look very
very suspicious.
Let us look at some of the missing facts. If the poverty and
illiteracy of third world weather observers is the cause of the
observed warming, (The authors' racism shows here.) then:
-- Why do sea data match the observed land warming trends?
Sea temperature data do not usually come from third world
countries and there are no urban centers in the sea.
-- Why do USHCN data yearly means match the warming
found in the yearly means of global land data? The US is not
a third world country.
Roger Coppock
>
> You might want to wander over to
> http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science/mckitrick3.html
> to see McKitricks little trick with those vectors. It ain't pretty
> though and folks with standards might want to avert their eyes.
>
> josh halpern
I agree Josh; it's pure hokum. To quote your reference:
They next present a graph where they
"treat each month as a vector of 10 observed temperatures,
and define the aggregate as the norm of the vector (with
temperatures in Kelvins). This is a perfectly standard way in
algebra to take the magnitude of a multidimensional array.
Converted to an average it implies a root mean square rule."
PURE BUNK
Roger Coppock
>
> http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/science/mckitrick3.html
> to see McKitricks little trick with those vectors. It ain't pretty
> though and folks with standards might want to avert their eyes.
>
> josh halpern
I agree Josh; it's pure hokum. To quote your reference:
John Browne Jr.
workout on his stationary bicycle... I'm sure there are a couple of
degrees C in that effort alone. ^..^
Steve Schulin
rcop...@adnc.com (Roger Coppock) wrote:
> An interesting multivariate correlation on a limited set of facts.
> With "Cee-OH-TOO" pseudo-scientists, we are probably dealing
> with a cherry picked set of facts. A report that uses just 218
> stations over only 21 years, out of a record that includes
> thousands of stations over more than a century does look very
> very suspicious.
As to the locations, the authors write that "The sample represents about
10% of active climate stations in the GISS collection... Stations were
sampled from all 7 continents, with the intent to draw from as many
different countries as possible. Additional coverage of Canada, the US
and Russia was done to improve the spatial spread. Stations were
selected for this sample only if they were in continuous operation from
1979 through 2000, and the data were available in the GISS on-line
collection. The selection of GISS stations was made prior to the
compilation of the socioeconomic covariates, and no additions or
deletions to the list were made once the data analysis was underway. A
follow-up study will extend the analysis herein to the entire land-based
IPCC grid cell collection."
As to the 1979-2000 period, it doesn't seem an unreasonable period to
study.
>
> Let us look at some of the missing facts. If the poverty and
> illiteracy of third world weather observers is the cause of the
> observed warming, (The authors' racism shows here.) then:
>
> -- Why do sea data match the observed land warming trends?
> Sea temperature data do not usually come from third world
> countries and there are no urban centers in the sea.
>
> -- Why do USHCN data yearly means match the warming
> found in the yearly means of global land data? The US is not
> a third world country.
There's no racism in this paper. And the trends in sea and USHCN data
are much more dependent upon the post-facto adjustments than upon the
data.
Very truly,
Steve Schulin
http://www.nuclear.com
w...@bas.ac.uk
>This looks similar to the McKitrick paper...
For anyone tempted to believe McKitrick, I recommend:
http://cgi.cse.unsw.edu.au/~lambert/cgi-bin/blog/2004/05#mckitrick3
-W.
--
William M Connolley | w...@bas.ac.uk | http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/wmc/
Climate Modeller, British Antarctic Survey | Disclaimer: I speak for myself
I'm a .signature virus! copy me into your .signature file & help me spread!
Vendicar Decarian
"Steve Schulin" <steve....@nuclear.com> wrote in message
news:steve.schulin-54D...@comcast.dca.giganews.com...
> This looks similar to the McKitrick paper which our own Robert Grumbine
> offered to help with some years ago. It was then titled "The Influence
> of Economic Activity on the Measurement of Global Warming".
Isn't McKitrick the bed wetting moron who claims that there is no physical
basis for average temprature?
Temperature <IS> an average.
Holy smoke, you people are incompetent morons.
Vendicar Decarian
> As to the locations, the authors write that "The sample represents about
> 10% of active climate stations in the GISS collection...
And why would anyone care when the same author shows that they can't compute
a simple average, and go on to deny the very fact that "average"
temperature - and hence any temperature (since all temperature is an
average) - exists.
Schulin can only support his political ignorance with references to quacks,
shills and outright bed wetting morons.
How republican of him.
Robert Grumbine
Steve Schulin <steve....@nuclear.com> wrote:
>[Ref: Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels, "A test of corrections for
>extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data", Clim Res
>26:159173 (May 25, 2004)]
>
>This looks similar to the McKitrick paper which our own Robert Grumbine
>offered to help with some years ago. It was then titled "The Influence
>of Economic Activity on the Measurement of Global Warming".
Unfortunate that it was refused. Things like understanding averaging
and the expected (and reasons for expecting that) climate change
patterns would have gone some distance to winding up with a
meaningful result. Instead, he went with Michaels, which was an
easy route for ensuring the predetermined conclusion.
--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences
Psalm 110
> [Ref: Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels, "A test of corrections for
> extraneous signals in gridded surface temperature data", Clim Res
> 26:159173 (May 25, 2004)]
I haven't finished with S. Fred Singer yet. Haven't exhausted the mine
of evidence; haven't exhausted the publications outlets yet. Milloy
and Gough are up there a bit higher then the two-bit jackals McKitrick
and Michaels, but there won't be anything left of them either when I
get done with them. Oh, Baliunas, Soon, TCS, Marshall Inst, Fred Seitz
-- they all get their turn on the convayor belt to scientific
oblivion. Use their feeble and ineffectual ammunition to argue your
corrupt arguments while you can, because the end is in sight for Cato,
CEI, AdTI, Heritage, Hoover, Atlas, George Mason U, Koch Industries,
Scafie...
Today's episode of SCIENCE COP:
The Corrupt Heidelberg Appeal, and the corrupt S. Fred Singer
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2025498348.html
Heidelberg Appeal to Heads of States and Governments Date: 18 Mar
1993 (est.)
Length: 1 page
Scanned, barely legible, copy of "Heidelberg Appeal" deceptively
crafted to mislead non-conspirator scientists and policy leaders that
bad science comes from industry enemies, whereas, the organizers of
this appeal were industry paid deception agents hired to deceive by
using fraudulent science.
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/mayo_clinic/2025498346.html
(Mayo Clinic Document)
SUBJECT: The Heidelberg Appeal Date: 23 Mar 1993
Length: 1 page
Attaches materials regarding the Heidelberg Appeal, International
Center for a Scientific Ecology (ICSE), and two ICSE conferences.
Offers background on ICSE, noting the tobacco industry's "discreet"
involvement "through the French NMA." States that the ICSE provides
views to international government bodies regarding "what constitutes
sound environmental science with regard to particular issues."
Comments that involvement with ICSE comes at opportune time given
President Clinton's sympathy to the coalition's messages.
Named Person:
* Lee, Peter N. (Biostatistician) Frequently funded by the tobacco
industry to criticize and discount published and epidemiological
studies that linked between tobacco smoking and health damage.
* Borelli, Thomas J. (Mgr., Corporate Scientific Affairs, PM 1990)
Manager of Corporate Scientific Affairs for Philip Morris in 1990.
Also worked for PM Corporate Services in Brussels.
* Clinton, William Jefferson (President, 1993-2001)
Named Organization:
* International Center for a Scientific Ecology
* IHT = Institute for Humane Studies, George Mason University
Site: MN Depository
Company: Philip Morris
Date Loaded: 19 Nov 2001
Author: Wirz, Gerard (PM Corporate Services, Brussels c.1990-94)
Gerard Wirz worked for Philip Morris Corporate Services, Inc. in
Brussels. (PMI's Introduction to Privilege Log and Glossary of Names,
Estate of Burl Butler v. PMI, et al, April 19, 1996)
See image in Philip Morris Documents:
http://tobaccodocuments.org/mayo_clinic/2025498346.html
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/mayo_clinic/2025498346.html
SUBJECT: The Heidelberg Appeal Date: 23 Mar 1993
Length: 1 page
Text of Scanned Document
To: Meeting Participants
From: Gerard WIRZ
Date: March 23, 1993
SUBJECT: The Heideiberg Appeal
Attached are some materials regarding an international coaIition of
scientists based in Paris.
1. The "Heidelberg Appeal" and the coalition: This has now been
endorsed by over 2,500 scientists, economists and intellectuals,
including 70 Nobel Laureates. As an outgrowth, a new institution
called the International Center for a Scientific Ecology has been
established in Paris to provide views to govemment officials around
the world on what constontiutes sound environmental science with
regard to particular issues.
2. ICSE May Conference in Paris: On May 10 the Center for a
Scientific Ecology will hold a conference to review the no-threshold
and linerality assumptions often used in cancer risk assessment. ETS
is on the agenda as one of the case examples, with P.N. Lee making a
presentation. (Appeal, provisional conference agenda and subscription
form are attached)
3. ICSE May Conference in Washington DC: Later in May a similar
conference will be held in Washington DC. I am working with Tom
Borelli to INDIRECTLY support the conference.
BACKGROUND
This coalition has its roots in the asbestos industry, but has become
a broad and independent movement in a littlc bit less than a year. We
are involved with the coalition through the French NMA, but we are
being discreet because some of the coalition members are concerned
about a "tobacco connection'.
Our srategy is to continue discreetly supporting the coalition and
help it grow in size and credibility. The timing is particularly
opportune because of Bill Clinton's sympathy to the messages of the
coalition (see attached IHT article).
If you would like more information on how to help support thc
movement, pIease contact me or Tom Borelli on the US side.
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385371.html
Heidelberg Appeal to Heads of States and Governments Date: 19930318/R
Length: 1 page
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385370.html
Date: 18 May 1993
Length: 1 page
PHILIP MORRIS CORPORATE SERVICES INC,
Rue Joseph II, 166
1040 Brussels
To: Distribution List Date: March
18, 1993
From: Gerard Wirz CC: Matt Winokur
Please find attached a copy of the Heidelberg Appeal and the
announcement for a restricted
intexnational scientific seminar which will be held on May 10 in
Paris.
The purpose of this coalition is to forewarn the authorities against
decisions which axe supported
by pseudo-scientific or false,non-relevant data.
I will brief you on the background of this coalition when we meet on
March 23, in Lausanne.
Distribution List
Tony Andrade
StiLf Carlson
Peter Martin
Helmut Reif
Clare Purcell
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2025498347.html
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385369.html
Facsimile Coversheet Date: 18 Mar 1993
Length: 1 page
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2502284041-4042.html
(Philip Morris Documents)
Scientific Integrity in the Public Policy Process Semi-Final Program
930524 - 930525 the Madison Hotel 15th and M Streets, Nw Washington,
D.C. Date: 19930525/D
Length: 2 pages
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385351.html
Date: 11 Oct 1993
Length: 1 page
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385382.html
International Center for A Scientific Ecology Meeting Date: 27 Apr
1993
Length: 1 page
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/rjr/515012616-2617.html
(RJ Reynold Tobacco Company files)
the "No Threshold" Argument. Date: Sep 1993
Length: 2 pages
Named Person:
* Delaney
* Ames
* Intl Center For Scientific Ecology
9. A 1993 International Conference concluded that threshold doses
are likely to exist, and condemned the Delaney Amendment as making no
scientific sense.
10. They affirmed that legislative decisions should not be supported
by pseudo-scientific arguments or false and non-relevant data.
... The "No Threshold' Argument
Cancer causing substances (carcinogens) exist everywhere - in the food
we eat,
the water we drink, the very air we breathe - they are ubiquitous and
unavoidable.
But most have only been shown to be carcinogens in high-dose animal
experiments: whether they cause cancer in humans at low doses is
speculation.
Because ETS is claimed to contain traces of such substances, and
because it is
assumed sometimes that there is no safe level of exposure to
carcinogens, it has
been suggested that inhaling someone else's tobacco smoke may cause
lung
cancer in nonsmokers (the 'no threshold' argument).
... A Conference on Low Doses Of Carcinogens was held under the
auspices of the
International Center for Scientific Ecology (Paris 1993) at which many
professors
of science argued against the notion of a no safe dose level.
September 1993
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385372.html
(Philip Morris Tobacco Company files)
International Center for A Scientific Ecology Guidelines for the
Seminar on Linear Relationship for Risk Assessment of Low Doses of
Carcinogens Date: Mar 18, 1993
Length: 1 page
* asbestos - MacDonald
* arsenic - Stohrer
* vinyl chloride monomer - Freiesleben
* DDT (...)
* saccarin - Cohen
* passive smoking P.N. Lee
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385352-5356.html
(Philip Morris Tobacco Company files)
Is the Concept of Linear Relationship Between Dose and Effect Still A
Valid Model for Assessing Risk Related to Low Doses of Carcinogens? A
Restricted International Scientific Seminar 930510 - Paris (France)
Date: 17 Feb 1993
Length: 5 pages
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385381.html
Paris Meeting Date: 07 May 1993
Length: 1 page
Tobacco Advisory Council Fax
Subject: PARIS MEETING
I enclose information on the International Center for a Scientific
Ecology Meeting to be held in Paris on
the 10th May. Peter Lee is participating. He will be sending us
further Information and a report on the
meeting for the Scientific Committee which I will let you have when it
comes.
Gill
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2025498349.html
Guidelines for the Seminar on Linear Relationship for Risk Assessment
of Low Doses of Carcinogens Date: 10 Feb 1993
Length: 1 page
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2048597442-7530.html
(Philip Morris Tobacco Company files)
PM / RJR Tobacco Task Force Date: 06 Jul 1993
Length: 89 pages
page 20:
Project Science Spokesperson
Lead Responsibility: PM: Tom Borelli
RJR:
Burson-Marsteller
APCO
ETS *
Time Line: -Searching
Description: Identify one or more scientists willing to speak on the
ETS subject in support of our position. Place them in speaking
opportunities.
Victor Han: Free up TI scientists; identify others for media.
Lead Responsibility: PM: Victor Han, Steve Parrish
Burson-Marsteller
R JR:
Action:
*TB - Encouraged speakers participating at the George Mason
University International
Institute's Scientific Integrity Conference to raise the ETS risk
assessment as an example
of bad science. The conference was video taped and it will be
reveiwed for statements
made on ETS. The video can be used to educate policy makers on
the use of bad science
and public policy.
-PM TB - APCO/Burson Marsteller are identifying various
environmental
symposia where ETS can be raised and various policy group
speakers will
will be reviewed as possible candidates.
-Still looking
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2502284041-4042.html
(Philip Morris Tobacco Company files)
Scientific Integrity in the Public Policy Process Semi-Final Program
930524 - 930525 the Madison Hotel 15th and M Streets, Nw Washington,
D.C. Date: 19930525/D
Length: 2 pages
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/mayo_clinic/85012622.html
THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR A SCIENTIFIC ECOLOGY The Center has been
created at the beginning of Date:
Length: 2 pages
THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER
FOR A SCIENTIFIC ECOLOGY
The Center has been created at the beginning of 1993 under the French
law for non-profit organizations. The purpose is to answer the request
from a number of the Heidelberg Appeal signatories in view to extend
its impact in examining actual issues the scientific community is
confronted with.
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/158433.html
Designer front group - TASSC Date: Mar 28, 1994
Length: 8 pages
page 4:
B. Expansion through the Supporters of the Heidelberg Appeal
The Heidelberg Appeal, an offshoot of the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de
Janeiro, currently has over 2,500 signatures from 96 countries. This
appeal is a statement of principles that advocates the use of sound
science -- not
emotions or irrational preconceptions-- as a basis for international
policy
page 5:
decisions. The supporters of the Appeal are a loose-knit group. The
effort to expand the support of the Appeal is handled through Dr. M.
Saloman of International Center for Scienific Ecology (Paris).
In discussions with a number of our scientific supporters and
with Dr. Fred Singer (a member of the Board of the International
Center for Scientific Ecology), there is belief that this initial
support could be organized into a more "formal movement"
internationally.
The benefits of attempting to use this group as a basis of
extending TASSC include:
Several of TASSC's scientists have signed the Appeal,
providing
the opporunity to approach the supporters with a
"peer to peer"~ approach, i.e., a "Dear Colleague letter.
The supporters of the Appeal are truly a divese group of
scientists, representing a variety of diciplines and
countries.
By working with this group, we might be able to ensure
that
European TASSC is a broad-based group.
In signing the Appeal, this group expressed support of
our basic
message. We know they will be receptive to the mission
and
goals of TASSC.
C. Expansion Through Other Existing Groups
We are aware of a number of trade associations that are interested in
the use of sound science. Through both the GCI/Grey and the Burson
networks, we could identify existing companies, trade associations and
organizations that may have an interest in promoting the use of sound
science. Some of the associations that might be approached by Grey/GCI
page 6:
... GCI/Grey's expertise includes work with a number of
clients, including the following industries impacted by science and
environmental policy decisions: chemical, pharmaceutical, nuclear,
waste management and motor industries, power generation, bio tech
products, packaging and detergents, paint. They have advised clients
on a number of issues, including:
* Agricultural manufacturing
* Animal testing
* Chlorine
* Dioxin~
* Toxic waste
* Ozone/CFC's
* Power generation
* Coastal pollution
* Lead in gasoline
* Polyurethanes
* Lubricants
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2501254705-4708.html
Proposal for the Organisation of the Whitecoat Project Date: 22 Feb
1988 (est.)
Length: 4 pages
2501254705-2501254708
Summarizes Whitecoat project "designed to support market-level ETS
programmes within the PM EEMA and EEC markets." Outlines objectives of
ETS programmes e.g. resisting smoking restrictions and restoring
social acceptability of smoking. Mentions the Whitecoat Project is
comprised of a Pro-active element, i.e. "to generate a body of
scientific and technical knowledge in the field of ETS" etc., and a
Reactive element: "to provide scientific and technical resources to
challenge existing laws etc." Provides an organizational overview
detailing what each component is responsible for, designating
components as A, B, C, D. Includes ICIAR organizational chart.
Type: Report
Named Organization: ACVA
Center for Indoor Air Research (CIAR) (Industry formed/funded air
research organzation)
Nonprofit organization funded by the tobacco industry. CIAR was
formed in March 1988 by tobacco companies "to sponsor "high-quality
research on indoor air issues and to facilitate communication of
research findings to the broad scientific community."
Covington & Burling (Tobacco Industry law firm)
Tobacco industry law firm. Was involved in organizing the
Whitecoat Project.
International Cenre for Indoor Air Research (ICIAR)
INFOTAB (Int'l Tobacco Information Clearinghouse for industry, NMAs)
ICOSI (International Commlssion on Smoking Issues) was formed
around 1978. It was reorganized in 1980 or 1981 as INFOTAB. Infotab is
an information clearinghouse that collects articles and legislatlve
information. Data Is funnelled to Infotab by members of the industry.
The founding companies are R.J. Reynolds International, BAT, Philip
Morris, Reemtsma, Rothmans, Imperial andGallaher. The last three
companies dropped in and out. A company had to give three years'
notice to resign. BAT gave its notice to resign in late 1987 in
conjunction with B&W's resignation from TI. BAT and B&W's resignations
were partially because of the Barclay controversy. The companies pay
the Infotab dues, but the beneficiaries include the national
manufacturing associations(NMAs) . NMAs worldwide receive newsletters
from Infotab. They can call and get information on various topics.
G.C. Hargrove of BAT was on Infotab.
Philip Morris Incorporated (Philip Morris U.S.A.) (a wholly-owned
subsidiary of Philip Morris Co., Inc.)
A wholly-owned subsidiary of Philip Morris Co., Inc.
Shook Hardy & Bacon (Tobacco Industry law firm)
Tobacco Industry law firm based in Kansas City, KS.
http://tobaccodocuments.org/bliley_pm/27471.html
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/2023856052-6057.html
The ETS Program for 1991 Date: 1990 (est.)
Length: 6 pages
This 1991 budget from the Philip Morris (PM) collection describes
tobacco industry activities to "maintain the controversy" on
secondhand smoke.
Operation/Project: Project Whitecoat (Scientific Witness Project)
Global project to recruit respected scientists in developed
countries around the world who would criticize the science on
secondhand smoke, cast doubt on whether ETS harms people and "prolong
the controversy" about the effects of environmental tobacco smoke on
nonsmokers.
Named Organization: BCIA, Business Council on Indoor Air (PM funded,
industry-formed indoor air quality group-)
Formed in 1988 "to address a growing mutual concern of a number
of private companies representing a wide spectrum of industries about
the serious national problem of poor indoor air quality."
(2023920674/0683). Funded by Philip Morris (2023856052/6057)
Center for Indoor Air Research (CIAR) (Industry formed/funded air
research organzation)
Nonprofit organization funded by the tobacco industry. CIAR was
formed in March 1988 by tobacco companies "to sponsor "high-quality
research on indoor air issues and to facilitate communication of
research findings to the broad scientific community."
EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
International Flight Attendants Association
INBIFO, Intitut Fur Biologische Forschung (Philip Morris' secret
biological research lab in Europe)
"INBIFO" stands for Institut Fur Biologische Forschung, or
Institute for Biological Research. It is located in Germany. Philip
Morris acquired Inbifo on June 30, 1971. Its stated mission was
"quantitative biological poduct evaluation" by using "comprehensive
toxicological and physiological testing. Major activities are listed
as: product evaluation and modifications, product ingredients and
ETS-related technical knowledge and smoke components. Inhalation
toxicology was a key feature of Inbifo. (Derived from Bates No.
2505235055/5088)
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2023542534.html
Organization of Contacts with Whitecoats Date: 16 Nov 1987
Length: 1 page
... WE REALLY SHOULD: NOT BE SEEN FALLING OVER EACH OTHER WHEN
CONTACTING INDEPENDENT SCIENTISTS.
WHEN I GAVE YOU THE OTHER DAY - IN CONFIDENCE - OUR LIST OF
+WHITECOATS+, IT WAS PRECISELY WITH THE PURPOSE IN MIND OF AVOIDING
DOUBLE APPROACHES. ...
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/2023329411-9457.html
Project Brass: A Plan of Action for the ETS Issue Date: 23 Mar 1993
Length: 47 pages
This document, Project Brass: A Plan of Action for the ETS Issue,
written by the Leo Burnett Company for Philip Morris (PM), reveals the
potency of the threat the issue of Environmental Tobacco Smoke, or
ETS, posed to the tobacco industry:
"For the first time, report provides alleged proof of link between ETS
and cancer...Shifts argument from 'personal choice' to 'smoking is
unhealthy for everyone'...Arms antis with scientific proof to go to
OSHA...Fuels emotional hysteria of antis...Will likely accelerate
efforts to prohibit/restrict smoking further...Alters image of smoker
[from] 'Bad for him/her,' to 'smoker is bad for all of us.'...Puts
further pressure on volume/revenue/profit trends."
The strategies Burnett proposed to fight the ETS issue were: to
broaden the ETS issue to encompass total indoor air quality (and thus
deflect attention away from the ETS issue), to use "credible third
parties" to help the company fight public health measures, and to
"create a sense of doubt about the EPA ETS report" [Page 30].
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/TI31049034.html
[Scientists in ETS Program] Date: 20 Oct 1992
Length: 1 page
This internal memorandum from the Tobacco Institute reveals the
increasing difficulty the tobacco industry has had in recruiting and
retaining credible medical and scientific professionals to publish
papers and testify on their behalf to help "maintain the controversy"
on secondhand smoke. Scientific and medical professionals who testify
publicly on behalf of the tobacco industry risk losing their own
credibility. This memo discusses the problem of attrition among
medical, statistical, toxicological and epidemiological "experts" that
the Tobacco Institute lined up to publish papers and testify at public
hearings in its "Scientific Witness Program."
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/2500017054-7063.html
Ets Date: 11 Jul 1989
Length: 10 pages
Outlines cost and extent of ETS "scientific witness" (Whitecoat)
program for 2 years ($2.5 million, not including legal costs). To G.
Bible from Andrew Whist, July, 1989.
page 7:
INTERNATIONAL ETS CONSULTANT PROGRAM
i. Total Number of Scientists Recruited: 70
EEC 45
EEMA 9
Asia 8
Australia - 3
Canada 5
2. Affiliated with universities: 49
EEC 31
EEMA 7
Asia 6
Australia - 1
Canada 4
3. Private consultants: 21
EEC 14
EEMA 2
Asia 2
Australia - 2
Canada .... 1
4. Disciplines covered:
Epidemiology
Biostatistics
Pulmonary Medicine
Occupational Hygiene
Toxicology
Pharmacology
Risk Assessment
Chemistry
Biology
Building Systems
5. Average annual fees:
No retainers paid. Compensation on basis of time
spent. $15,000 to $20,000 per year on average.
6. Scientific Conferences (not including press briefings):
EEC 12
EEMA 6
Asia 7
Australia - 0
L/A 6
Canada 5
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/landman/2023856052-6057.html
The ETS Program for 1991 Date: 1990 (est.)
Length: 6 pages
"Science Objectives" were estimated to cost a whopping $16,688,400 and
included "Develop and support activities and research which maintain
the controversy..." about secondhand smoke and "Maintain research
activity...to provide support for our position."
Among the "Science Objectives" were "Develop[ing] and support[ing]
activities and research which maintain the controversy" about tobacco
smoke.
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2025498356-8357.html
Invited Panelists 930510 Seminar Date: 18 Mar 1993 (est.)
Length: 2 pages
Two months before a pseudo-science conference, this document is
deposited in Philip Morris Tobacco Company files. This kind of detail
over every element of the planning and conduct of the May 10, 1993
ICSE conference is proof positive that the conference was tobacco
supported and operated to generate usable results in science
deceptions by tobacco companies. The conference was fraudulent science
by craft and design.
Taken together with the AdTI phoney science reports, S. Fred Singer is
caught in an inescapable trap of his own making, that he perverted
science to advance serial murder corporations to keep killing longer.
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2028385357-5368.html
'is the Concept of Linear Relationship Between Dose and Effect Still A
Valid Model for Assessing Risk Related to Low Doses of Carcinogens?'
Notes on An International Scientific Ecology Held on 9030510 in Paris
Date: 13 May 1993
Length: 12 pages
Notes on an International Scientific Seminar
organized by the
International Center for a Scientific Ecology
held on i0 Nay 1993 in Paris
Author : P N Lee
Date : 13.5.93
... Having said that, it was notable that no members of environmental
organizations had been invited to the conference, so counter-arguments
were often not made. ...
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2024233595-3602.html
Thoughts on Tassc Europe Date: 25 Mar 1994
Length: 8 pages
===========================
http://tobaccodocuments.org/pm/2025498349.html
Guidelines for the Seminar on Linear Relationship for Risk Assessment
of Low Doses of Carcinogens Date: 10 Feb 1993
Length: 1 page
Related Documents:
* 2025498347
* 2025498348 Heidelberg Appeal to Heads of States and Governments
* 2025498350-8355 Is the Concept of Linear Relationship Between Dose
and Effect Still A Valid Model for Assessing Risk Related to Low Does
of Carcinogens? A Restricted International Scientific Seminar 930510 -
Paris (France)
* 2025498356-8357 Invited Panelists 930510 Seminar
Named Organization:
* Intl Center for A Scientific Ecology
* Seminar Linear Relationship Risk Assess
===========================
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/ADTI_Frauds_01.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Pelosi.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-1993-1994.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-Seitz.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-Nightline.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Stohrer-Singer.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Hazeltine-Singer.html
http://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Heidelberg-Appeal.html