West holds key to energy puzzle
Aozotorp
headline:
Article Published: Sunday, August 17, 2003 - 12:00:00 AM MST
West holds key to energy puzzle
Patricia Limerick is the faculty director and chair of the board of the Center
of the American West.
By Patricia Nelson Limerick
When it comes to making decisions about the nation's energy future, the West is
the linchpin. With riches in conventional fuels as well as an abundance of sun
and wind, the West can play the key role.
Trying to plan for this future can make Westerners feel as if they are
searching for a path through an unmapped landscape, while everyone in the world
converges to give conflicting directions. Optimists, pessimists, scientists,
economists, environmentalists, utility managers, businesspeople, politicians:
everyone tells you something different. As physicist Al Bartlett, puts it: "For
every Ph.D, there is an equal and opposite Ph.D."
Who to believe?
To prepare our new report, "What Every Westerner Should Know about Energy," the
staff of the Center of the American West at the University of Colorado
consulted a range of experts and advocates. We read and listened carefully, and
we asked the people we consulted to review what we wrote. We have not fooled
ourselves into thinking that we figured it all out, and therefore we welcome
your comments, responses, and criticisms.
The world's supply of fossil fuels has laid out a test for human nature in the
surprisingly short-term future. Since energy sources and needs do not defer to
national, geographic, or political boundaries, we have to think about the West
and energy within a context of global energy reserves and production, as well
as world population and industrialization.
Using current reserve data, reserve growth projections, and anticipating
technological development, the United States Geological Survey, the Department
of Energy, and the energy company BP America agree on a forecast: World energy
production from oil will peak sometime between 2020 and 2050. The difference
between fossil fuel production and consumer demand will leave a gap to be
filled by new technologies.
Dr. John D. Edwards, from CU's Geological Sciences Department, has prepared a
telling graph of the "Yellow Zone": As demand continues to grow, and as fossil
fuel production falls off, then Edwards' "Yellow Zone" represents the demand
that cannot be filled with fossil fuel supplies and will require, instead,
supplies from renewable energy.
Alarmists declaring that we are about to run out of fossil fuels have done a
great deal to undermine the credibility of calls for conservation and
development of renewable energy sources. Nonetheless, it is time to recognize
that we are in hailing distance of a future world in which renewable energy
must play a central part. We need to get from here to there - from energy use
defined by fossil fuels to energy use defined by renewable sources.
Currently, the percentage of energy produced from solar and wind sources
thoroughly qualifies for the adjective "miniscule." The American West has some
distinctive advantages when it comes to edging that percentage up from "tiny"
to "significant" to "substantial." This may seem like a tall order, but
folklore says that Westerners like challenges.
The West is the focus of the energy fight for very clear reasons. The West is
very rich in resources. The West is very rich in landscape beauty. As a result,
the West is very rich in contention.
Coal is the West's most abundant and cheapest fossil fuel. The American West
holds 31.5 percent of the nation's proven reserves of coal. Wyoming produces
roughly the same amount of coal as South America, Central America, Africa, and
the Middle East combined.
The West is the largest onshore oil-producing region in the contiguous United
States. The 11 western states hold 30 percent of the proven oil reserves in the
lower 48 states, including offshore reserves. California is the West's oil
center, with 17 percent of the U.S. crude oil proved reserves, the third
largest holdings in the nation.
The Intermountain West contains more natural gas than any other region in the
lower 48 states. It holds 41 percent of the estimated proven and potential gas
reserves in the United States, and produces nearly 20 percent of the nation's
natural gas. Natural gas production in the Rocky Mountain region is projected
to grow by 2.7 trillion cubic feet between 2001 and 2025, the largest increase
in natural gas production in the United States.
s.
Coalbed methane (CBM) production is a relatively new industry in the West. CBM
is a natural gas that is trapped in coal seams, and the West is a key region
for production. The most prolific CBM production in the world is attributed to
the San Juan Basin in Colorado and New Mexico, and the Powder River Basin in
Wyoming. Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah hold an estimated 47 trillion
cubic feet of CBM, one-third to one-half of the nation's total estimated
recoverable reserves.
The West's assets in alternative energies are just as remarkable as its
holdings in fossil fuels. Indeed, the abundance of both wind and sunshine have
long preoccupied Westerners and inspired many a tall tale. Chickens fated to
live on the plains, legend had it, learned to stay on their feet by leaning
into the wind. On the rare occasions when the wind let up, the surprised
chickens pitched forward. The features of the landscape shape the region's
resources in sun and wind. Western states are both blessed and cursed with a
combination of mountain-enhanced winds and empty, obstacle-free prairie space.
The West's mountain ranges also explain the many hours of sunshine. When air
moves inland from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, the Sierra Nevada and
Rocky Mountains force it to drop much of its moisture. By the time the air
reaches the other side of either of these ranges, little moisture remains, and
as a result, precipitation and sun-blocking clouds are minimal.... (cont)