Got 'er!
I'm not at all familiar with the topology they've used in this PSU,
but I believe it's the chopper transistor (I should have guessed)
that's gone low-resistance: Q1050. It was releasing quite a bit of
heat even at only 18VAC supply with the current limited via 4x40 bulbs
to boot. I removed it from circuit to check and it was dead. So I'm
hoping that's the only part that's been damaged. It's an IRF820 and I
have a bunch of IRF840s so will press one of those into service in
place of the burnt-out one. Pin-outs just the same, just a lower Rdson
figure, which is no bad thing.
One question, though: they've mounted these transistors without using
a screw through the mounting tab of this TO-220 package. The devices
are just 'leaning' against some white pad mounted on the heat sink
(see photo). Is there some special grease required to mate the
transistor to the white pad or can I just use the regular silicon
grease for this? It doesn't seem like a very good way of ensuring
thermal conductivity. :-/
https://disk.yandex.com/i/cJDolujNfYucYw