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Re: Bronner Speaks in Tuscaloosa
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martin
Jul 5, 2009, 8:37:57 PM7/5/09
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On 5 July, 17:08, Pers3id <pers...@comcast.invalid> wrote:
> Good Stuff.
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> http://tinyurl.com/pyjr3j
>
> Sunday, June 28, 2009
> Bronner Speaks in Tuscaloosa
>
> Dr. David Bronner, CEO of the Alabama Retirement Systems,
> the 43rd largest investment fund in America, spoke at Rotary Club
> here yesterday. He is one of the most respected fund controllers
> in the United States today by his peers.
>
> One of my grad school professors e-mailed me notes detailing
> what Bronner had to say:
>
> 1) Next month (July) California hits the wall financially, that
> will send a ripple effect across the US economy, AND over the
> next two years one state after the other will fall to it's knees
> financially as the federal government stimulus package ends by
> 2011. It has helped various states at different levels
> comparative to their economic condition. He says the stimulus
> package is what's been keeping the states alive for now...except
> for California which was in such terrible shape the stimulus
> package wasn't enough to really help them. "They go first"
> he said. Alabama would hit the wall in February of 2011, late
> in the game as Alabama is in better shape than other states.
> Bronner says Alabama might dodge the bullet if the economy
> revives enough by then. But, he doesn't really think things
> will improve enough by then to avoid a crisis."It will be
> the largest economic crisis in the history of the State of
> Alabama." Bronner says Alabama will experience such significant
> shortfalls by 2011 that taxes will have to be raised
> substantially to avoid collapse...probably on property.
> And that practically all states will face a similar fate.
>
> 2) Within 120 to 150 days from now the commercial real estate
> market nationally begins to collapse as stores, malls, and
> shopping strips, and industrial plant have enough closures
> (store and plant) and loss of rental revenue to make them unable
> to pay their mortgages. They will start going into foreclosure
> unable to pay their mortgages in a significant way at that
> time creating a second wave of economic disaster starting
> three to four months from now.
>
> 3) Unless oil stays above $70 a barrel Russian and Mexican
> economics will begin to unravel as countries ("socio-economic
> collapse) economies require that much from oil to have an
> adequate revenue stream to feed their people and economies.
> AND, the only other big revenue stream for Mexico is illegal
> drugs sold in the US...so their economy will intensify their
> focus on selling drugs in America as a result in order to
> survive if oil doesn't stay above $70...he said $90 would
> be better for them.
>
> 4) The US economy (according to Bronner) is today like a
> patient in the emergency room in the process of having a
> heart attack. He said people tend to think of it as being in
> the hospital for cancer or chronic disease. Without the huge
> Bush stimulus, and then the huge Obama stimulus, the economy
> would have already flat lined...(i.e. we'd be experiencing a
> Great Depression style economic collapse heading toward 25%
> unemployment or so as the tumble would have continued and
> intensified at an increasing rate, with the stock market
> hitting around 2,000) Bronner said the depth of the crisis
> was greater than ANYONE realized and agrees today, after
> learning the extent of the crisis, that the federal
> government simply had to start "shoveling" money at it to
> prevent a true and complete collapse of our economy. He
> said he, at first, was mad at this shoveling of money until
> he learned the truth about the amount of money necessary to
> prevent a total collapse which he believes would have happened.
>
> 5) Inflation will not arrive for 3 to 5 years as the economy
> is in a deflationary stage due to the economic plummet...and
> will not experience inflation until people start "buying things"
> again, and that's going to take while! He also believes 3 to 5
> years is probably the term until true economic recovery
> establishes in the US and world economy.
>
> 6) China must start selling their products to people in their
> own country and paying their workers enough to buy them. This
> would increase their products prices, reducing their exports
> (and "besides they will lose interest in having more US
> dollars anyway") and enabling other countries (US) to
> compete with them.
>
> 7) The greatest threat to the US economy is one of around 9
> world events that could heap misery on top of misfortune at
> exactly the wrong time. A nuclear incident with N Korea,
> a plague, Israel attacking Iran (oil shock), or such could
> still throw the US economy into a Great Depression style
> situation. He said the greatest risk of this is anytime
> from now until the world economy gets somewhat back on it's
> feet...in 3 to 5 years.
> Good Stuff.
>
> ____________________________________________________________________
>
> http://tinyurl.com/pyjr3j
>
> Sunday, June 28, 2009
> Bronner Speaks in Tuscaloosa
>
> Dr. David Bronner, CEO of the Alabama Retirement Systems,
> the 43rd largest investment fund in America, spoke at Rotary Club
> here yesterday. He is one of the most respected fund controllers
> in the United States today by his peers.
>
> One of my grad school professors e-mailed me notes detailing
> what Bronner had to say:
>
> 1) Next month (July) California hits the wall financially, that
> will send a ripple effect across the US economy, AND over the
> next two years one state after the other will fall to it's knees
> financially as the federal government stimulus package ends by
> 2011. It has helped various states at different levels
> comparative to their economic condition. He says the stimulus
> package is what's been keeping the states alive for now...except
> for California which was in such terrible shape the stimulus
> package wasn't enough to really help them. "They go first"
> he said. Alabama would hit the wall in February of 2011, late
> in the game as Alabama is in better shape than other states.
> Bronner says Alabama might dodge the bullet if the economy
> revives enough by then. But, he doesn't really think things
> will improve enough by then to avoid a crisis."It will be
> the largest economic crisis in the history of the State of
> Alabama." Bronner says Alabama will experience such significant
> shortfalls by 2011 that taxes will have to be raised
> substantially to avoid collapse...probably on property.
> And that practically all states will face a similar fate.
>
> 2) Within 120 to 150 days from now the commercial real estate
> market nationally begins to collapse as stores, malls, and
> shopping strips, and industrial plant have enough closures
> (store and plant) and loss of rental revenue to make them unable
> to pay their mortgages. They will start going into foreclosure
> unable to pay their mortgages in a significant way at that
> time creating a second wave of economic disaster starting
> three to four months from now.
>
> 3) Unless oil stays above $70 a barrel Russian and Mexican
> economics will begin to unravel as countries ("socio-economic
> collapse) economies require that much from oil to have an
> adequate revenue stream to feed their people and economies.
> AND, the only other big revenue stream for Mexico is illegal
> drugs sold in the US...so their economy will intensify their
> focus on selling drugs in America as a result in order to
> survive if oil doesn't stay above $70...he said $90 would
> be better for them.
>
> 4) The US economy (according to Bronner) is today like a
> patient in the emergency room in the process of having a
> heart attack. He said people tend to think of it as being in
> the hospital for cancer or chronic disease. Without the huge
> Bush stimulus, and then the huge Obama stimulus, the economy
> would have already flat lined...(i.e. we'd be experiencing a
> Great Depression style economic collapse heading toward 25%
> unemployment or so as the tumble would have continued and
> intensified at an increasing rate, with the stock market
> hitting around 2,000) Bronner said the depth of the crisis
> was greater than ANYONE realized and agrees today, after
> learning the extent of the crisis, that the federal
> government simply had to start "shoveling" money at it to
> prevent a true and complete collapse of our economy. He
> said he, at first, was mad at this shoveling of money until
> he learned the truth about the amount of money necessary to
> prevent a total collapse which he believes would have happened.
>
> 5) Inflation will not arrive for 3 to 5 years as the economy
> is in a deflationary stage due to the economic plummet...and
> will not experience inflation until people start "buying things"
> again, and that's going to take while! He also believes 3 to 5
> years is probably the term until true economic recovery
> establishes in the US and world economy.
>
> 6) China must start selling their products to people in their
> own country and paying their workers enough to buy them. This
> would increase their products prices, reducing their exports
> (and "besides they will lose interest in having more US
> dollars anyway") and enabling other countries (US) to
> compete with them.
>
> 7) The greatest threat to the US economy is one of around 9
> world events that could heap misery on top of misfortune at
> exactly the wrong time. A nuclear incident with N Korea,
> a plague, Israel attacking Iran (oil shock), or such could
> still throw the US economy into a Great Depression style
> situation. He said the greatest risk of this is anytime
> from now until the world economy gets somewhat back on it's
> feet...in 3 to 5 years.
He is a bit too optomistic.
Martin
phil scott
Jul 5, 2009, 9:13:01 PM7/5/09
to
>
> - Show quoted text -
in his position yer public statements have to be a bit on the bright
side... but I agree 3 to 5 years is about 20% of the scope of the
problem at best,
Econotron
Jul 7, 2009, 6:06:35 PM7/7/09
to
"martin" <martin.s...@gmail.com> wrote in message
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===================================================================
Or may be he is too optometric.
"Hey, Bronner! Are you crazy? Stop bitching about government shoveling
money. You need to look after your own first. Or do you want us all to be
working for H&R Block in a year or two?"
:-)
e.
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