[Leps-l] Monarch decline - data and publications

[Chip Taylor]

For those of you interested in data, here are
some links to data and publications that pertain
to the decline in monarch numbers. It is likely
that the overwintering numbers for 2012-2013 will
be the lowest recorded to date.


Record of fall roosts - allows you to compare
years and dates - and those can be compared to
overwintering numbers - see below

http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/monarch/MigrationMapsFallRoost.html

--------------------------------------------

Spring migration - allows you to compare years and dates

http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/monarch/MigrationMaps.

-----------------------------------------------

Size of overwintering populations -- measured by
personnel from WWFMX and the MBBR.

http://www.learner.org/jnorth/tm/monarch/PopulationMexicoAnalyzeGraph.html


See also -
http://monarchwatch.org/bring-back-the-monarchs/campaign/the-details
- for some data on Western monarchs



---------------------------------------------

Milkweed loss in agricultural fields because of
herbicide use: effect on the monarch butterfly
population
. JOHN M. PLEASANTS1, KAREN S. OBERHAUSER
Issue

Insect Conservation and Diversity - March 2012

Keywords:
Glyphosate;GMO;milkweed;monarch butterfly
Abstract. 1.?The size of the Mexican
overwintering population of monarch butterflies
has decreased over the last decade. Approximately
half of these butterflies come from the U.S.
Midwest where larvae feed on common milkweed.
There has been a large decline in milkweed in
agricultural fields in the Midwest over the last
decade. This loss is coincident with the
increased use of glyphosate herbicide in
conjunction with increased planting of
genetically modified (GM) glyphosate-tolerant
corn (maize) and soybeans (soya).
2.?We investigate whether the decline in the size
of the overwintering population can be attributed
to a decline in monarch production owing to a
loss of milkweeds in agricultural fields in the
Midwest. We estimate Midwest annual monarch
production using data on the number of monarch
eggs per milkweed plant for milkweeds in
different habitats, the density of milkweeds in
different habitats, and the area occupied by
those habitats on the landscape.
3.?We estimate that there has been a 58% decline
in milkweeds on the Midwest landscape and an 81%
decline in monarch production in the Midwest from
1999 to 2010. Monarch production in the Midwest
each year was positively correlated with the size
of the subsequent overwintering population in
Mexico. Taken together, these results strongly
suggest that a loss of agricultural milkweeds is
a major contributor to the decline in the monarch
population.
4.?The smaller monarch population size that has
become the norm will make the species more
vulnerable to other conservation threats.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Decline of monarch butterflies overwintering in
Mexico: is the migratory phenomenon at risk?
. LINCOLN P. BROWER1, ORLEY R.
TAYLOR2, ERNEST H. WILLIAMS3, DANIEL A.
SLAYBACK4, RAUL R. ZUBIETA5, M. ISABEL RAMÍREZ6

Insect Conservation and Diversity
Volume 5, Issue 2, pages 95-100, March 2012

For the abstract visit --
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-4598.2011.00142.x/abstract


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Brower, L.P., O.R. Taylor, & E.H. Williams. 2012.
Response to Davis: choosing relevant evidence to
assess monarch population trends. Insect
Conservation and Diversity, in press. (published
on-line October, 2011; doi:
10.1111/j.1752-4598.2011.00176.x)

For the abstract visit ---
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1752-4598.2011.00176.x/abstract

_______________________________________________
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Lep...@mailman.yale.edu
http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

[Chuck Vaughn]

In recent discussions here I made a comment that none of the climate models have been able to predict the present from the past. I don't archive all these messages but I think it was Chip Taylor that mentioned that it was recently shown that the models are actually under predicting current temperatures. I responded that I had not heard that anywhere but would try to do some research on it.

It's come to my attention that this came out of a talk given by Michael Mann at the American Geophysical Union conference in December 2012. Steve McIntyre has posted an analysis of how Mann was able to make it look like the models have under predicted current temperatures. He's calling it "Mike's AGU Trick."

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336

Turns out that if you compare GISS global land only temperature data to a model that used land and sea data (land runs hotter) to predict temperatures and truncate the data in 2005 instead of using the most recent data, you can make it look like the models have under predicted current temperatures when that is not the case. They are still over predicting temperatures.

Chuck

[Chip Taylor]

"They are still over predicting temperatures."

Here is one possible reason the models are over-predicting the temperatures based on projected CO2, water vapor and other GH gas levels,

Study: Volcanic eruptions offset small part of greenhouse gas-driven global warming during the past 10 years | Summit County Citizens Voice

There have been several reports on the above study this past week.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The climate wars themselves appear to be heating up.

Tired of distortions and misrepresentations some scientists are planning to fight back against the denial myths.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/03/03/drop-some-climate-reality-web-denial-myths

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- 

Chip Taylor
ch...@ku.edu
Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org/
Dplex-L:  send message "info Dplex-L" to List...@ku.edu
1-888-TAGGING -or- 1-785-864-4441
University of Kansas
1200 Sunnyside Avenue
Lawrence, KS 66045-7534
Create, Conserve, and Protect Monarch Habitats

[MexicoDoug]

Hi Chuck,

This generalization about the relationship of global warming to the
Monarch wintering site seem a little like trusting the weatherman's 10
day rain forecast during the transition from rainy to dry seasons ;-)

http://www.diogenite.com/monarch.htm

Without meandering too far or unfortunately distracting with the myriad
of side arguments (seriously Monarchs and global warming sounds
humorously to me like tails wagging their dogs), I've tried my hand at
the sort of picture I personally find helpful to make my own
impressions for the Monarch winter site. I think I am representing a
relatively current picture in objective terms and specifically just
trying to add an unbiased picture for everyone's perusal.

Here's the link, and I'm also submitting it to "Psychology Today" to
see if they will put it in the "Rorschach Ink Blot Test" updated for
early 21st Century since the test seems in need for modernization ;-).

I had no time to make a respectable web page, so it is all image with
the twist that you can mouse over it and get the somewhat outdated
satellite picture of the trees. What you see is a map of Mexico, with
a USDA assessment (and the USDA tends not to try to diffuse alarmism to
the chagrin to many environmentalists, from what I've seen) of
desertification overlayed Google Maps as the base picture.

The USDA green pastel covers the microclimate which is cold and for
that reason likely not subject to desertification. However, it is
interesting to see the small size (about 4 miles thick) like green
islands in the middle of gray, which represents already desertified
land.

If you mouse over the image (actually, you need to keep the mouse out
of the the margin of your window since I made the picture so big or you
will be always moused over seeing the trees.) In any case, from yellow
to red are vulnerable areas being encroached upon by desertification.
As long as the Oyamel Woods are maintained in their little islands, the
humidity will continue and protect the area from desertification. So
the debate would be in how much maintaining is needed. The Monarch
overwintering sites are mainly in the two small islands in the middle
of the mouseover inset, which you can see upon mousing is a darker
green woods. In any case, we are not talking about huge expanses of
"forest", though to characterize them as tiny would be equally biased.

Ref:
1. Google Earth today
2. Google Maps today
3. http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert-map.zip

Best wishes
Doug

[Chip Taylor]

Oops. Here is a link to the original article in Science News.

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2013/03/01/Study-Volcanoes-have-climate-effect/UPI-21511362179590/
--

"They are still over predicting temperatures."

Here is one possible reason the models are over-predicting the
temperatures based on projected CO2, water vapor and other GH gas
levels,

Study:

Volcanic eruptions offset small part of greenhouse gas-driven global
warming during the past 10 years | Summit County Citizens Voice

There have been several reports on the above study this past week.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The climate wars themselves appear to be heating up.

Tired of distortions and misrepresentations some scientists are
planning to fight back against the denial myths.

http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/03/03/drop-some-climate-reality-web-denial-myths

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

>In recent discussions here I made a comment that none of the climate
>models have been able to predict the present from the past. I don't
>archive all these messages but I think it was Chip Taylor that
>mentioned that it was recently shown that the models are actually
>under predicting current temperatures. I responded that I had not
>heard that anywhere but would try to do some research on it.
>
>It's come to my attention that this came out of a talk given by
>Michael Mann at the American Geophysical Union conference in
>December 2012. Steve McIntyre has posted an analysis of how Mann was
>able to make it look like the models have under predicted current
>temperatures. He's calling it "Mike's AGU Trick."
>
>http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336
>
>Turns out that if you compare GISS global land only temperature data
>to a model that used land and sea data (land runs hotter) to predict
>temperatures and truncate the data in 2005 instead of using the most
>recent data, you can make it look like the models have under
>predicted current temperatures when that is not the case. They are
>still over predicting temperatures.
>
>Chuck
>_______________________________________________
>Leps-l mailing list
>Lep...@mailman.yale.edu
>http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

--
Chip Taylor
ch...@ku.edu
Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org/
Dplex-L: send message "info Dplex-L" to List...@ku.edu
1-888-TAGGING -or- 1-785-864-4441
University of Kansas
1200 Sunnyside Avenue
Lawrence, KS 66045-7534
Create, Conserve, and Protect Monarch Habitats

_______________________________________________
Leps-l mailing list
Lep...@mailman.yale.edu
http://mailman.yale.edu/mailman/listinfo/leps-l

--
Chip Taylor
ch...@ku.edu
Monarch Watch
http://www.MonarchWatch.org/
Dplex-L: send message "info Dplex-L" to List...@ku.edu
1-888-TAGGING -or- 1-785-864-4441
University of Kansas
1200 Sunnyside Avenue
Lawrence, KS 66045-7534
Create, Conserve, and Protect Monarch Habitats

[Chuck Vaughn]

I made my post just to follow up on where the idea of models under predicting warming came from. It was not my intention to start another long discussion. I know I'm not going to convince anyone of anything. :-) Yes, I did see blog posts regarding both of your comments below.

Chuck

> Oops. Here is a link to the original article in Science News.
>
> http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2013/03/01/Study-Volcanoes-have-climate-effect/UPI-21511362179590/
> --
>
> "They are still over predicting temperatures."
>
> Here is one possible reason the models are over-predicting the
> temperatures based on projected CO2, water vapor and other GH gas
> levels,
>
> Study:
>
> Volcanic eruptions offset small part of greenhouse gas-driven global
> warming during the past 10 years | Summit County Citizens Voice
>
> There have been several reports on the above study this past week.
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> The climate wars themselves appear to be heating up.
>
> Tired of distortions and misrepresentations some scientists are
> planning to fight back against the denial myths.
>
> http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/03/03/drop-some-climate-reality-web-denial-myths
>