Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.

[Robert Clark]

I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.

Bob Clark

[Poutnik]

Robert Clark posted Sun, 17 Feb 2013 07:26:38 -0800 (PST)

>
> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
> the same 24 hour period.

There is no problem. Either they had similar trajectory, either not.

If they have, they could orbit Sun as debris of the common object.
If not, than some things just happen.

--
Poutnik

[Mike Dworetsky]

However unlikely, the coincidence did occur. And they were on very
different orbits, hence unrelated physically. All you can really conclude
is that it was very unlikely, but it did happen.

By your argument, you should be deeply disturbed every time someone wins a
big lottery sweepstakes, or is killed by lightning. These are also rare
events for individuals but they do happen
regularly to someone in a larger population

Would you be worried if they had been a week apart? A month?.

--
Mike Dworetsky

(Remove pants sp*mbl*ck to reply)

[Frederick Williams]

Robert Clark wrote:
>
> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.

Really? 1 in 10,000 doesn't sound unlikely to me, given all the "stuff"
flying around. Certainly not disturbing.

--
When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by
this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him.
Jonathan Swift: Thoughts on Various Subjects, Moral and Diverting

[DonH]

"Robert Clark" <rgrego...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:95a465f3-3aa8-4d97...@y9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com...

# So, is there any evidence that the meteor "pealed off" from the asteroid,
or that there is some connection between the two - apart from coincidence of
occurrence?

[bob haller]

On Feb 17, 12:28 pm, "DonH" <donlhumphr...@bigpond.com> wrote:
> "Robert Clark" <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote in message

Think of playing pool, in a larger sense thats where we live.

The two may not be releated, but could be, as part of some collisions
perhaps before any of us were born.....

Its possible our earth may be in a area of space with more litter than
usual.

People will get more interested if we get more incoming. Or nasa
tracks the one that missed and finds its perturbed by earths gravity
and will be back to impact somewhere on our planet

[Greg (Strider) Moore]

>"DonH" wrote in message
>news:wr8Us.3759$Ow3....@viwinnwfe02.internal.bigpond.com...

Not really. Very different orbits.

Just one of those cosmic wake-up calls trying to remind us that we're not as
safe as we'd like to think.


>
>
>

--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

[Greg (Strider) Moore]

"Frederick Williams" wrote in message
news:51210CBA...@btinternet.com...

>
>Robert Clark wrote:
>>
>> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
>> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>
>Really? 1 in 10,000 doesn't sound unlikely to me, given all the "stuff"
>flying around. Certainly not disturbing.

Ayup.

Think about it, if we're talking on the scale of days, then 1:10,000 we're
talking 2-3 times in the average lifetime.

Not too shabby.

[David Bernier]

Meteor showers like the Perseids have a so-called radiant
point in Perseus, from which they trace back. This is
because the fragments are travelling in parallel directions
w.r.t. the "fixed" solar system and the earth passes through
this bunch of objects whose orbits "intersect" earth's
orbit at one point in the yearly cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiant_%28meteor_shower%29

For the Russian meteor, by tracing back all the paths,
perhaps one could locate its radiant on the celestial
sphere along an arc of great circle.

So, that in turn would constrain the direction in
space of the meteor's velocity vector w.r.t. the
fixed solar system just before it hit earth.

So, the idea is to learn more about the direction of travel
of the Russian meteor w.r.t. the solar system, to compare
it with the velocity vector of the asteroid ...

David Bernier

--
dracut:/# lvm vgcfgrestore
File descriptor 9 (/.console_lock) leaked on lvm invocation. Parent PID
993: sh
Please specify a *single* volume group to restore.

[David Bernier]

The video below linked was made by a graphic animation
company:
http://www.crazyengineers.com/russian-meteors-path-tracked-by-computer-simulation/

It shows the meteor coming from ? towards

Chelyabinsk. North is exactly at the top ...

The path is roughly from East-North-East to North-East.

Also, the earth rotated between 9:20 am Chelyabinsk time
and the time of the closest approach of asteroid
2012 DA14.

Also, the path above earth of the meteor wont show
the angle of descent: the meteor was falling.

[Bj�rn S�rheim]

Here you made a MAJOR error. Your argument is way stronger, my friend.
You probably didn't do much probability computations?

I just choose to accept your numbers for probability of the two
phenomena, as they seem to on the right level.
So the probability of these two different phenomena occuring within
24hours is found by multiplying their probability for each separate
incident. If the probability for the asteroid occuring is Pa, and the
meteor occuring is Pm, then the two on the same day is Pa times Pm. So
calculating the probability is like this:
1/30x365x30x365=1/119902500, that is 1 over 100 million!
So you have to start the discussion over again
with this imensly low probability in mind.

CNN posted on Saturday an article where an astronomer from Yale came
to a very similar number. Unfortunately she shot her in the foot by
saying the two trajectories/orbits were incompatiable. She probably
bought that statement from NASA.
Personally I think these two are connected, and the probability of
them occuring together is as shown imensly low if not the first is
producing the latter. So it questions why NASA, at least preliminary,
said they were not connected.

Bj�rn S�rheim

[David Bernier]

North isn't exactly at top.

> The path is roughly from East-North-East to North-East.
>
> Also, the earth rotated between 9:20 am Chelyabinsk time
> and the time of the closest approach of asteroid
> 2012 DA14.
>
> Also, the path above earth of the meteor wont show
> the angle of descent: the meteor was falling.
>
>
>

I find that when approaching Chelyabinsk, the meteor was
coming from about 20 degres North of East, or
at an Azimuth of 70 degrees, close to
East-North-East.

But from NASA:
"Asteroid DA14's trajectory is in the opposite direction, from south to
north.".

Asteroid DA14 crossed the equatorial plane of earth
going pretty much South to North, and it can be seen in
the animation at the very end.

The meteor's mass is estimated at 7000 to 10,000 tons.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/asteroid20130215.html

[Brad Guth]

Incoming asteroids: “This isn't over“, and nowadays it’s becoming a
matter of how often those 1+ tonne rocks arrive. Fortunately most
haven’t been of any sufficient metallicity density, as otherwise we’d
be having to deal with those pesky craters from their impacts in
addition to their supersonic entry of explosive shockwaves.

The arriving Sirius Oort cloud should offer at least a million times
as many items as our Oort cloud has to offer, and perhaps on average
offering a thousand times greater individual mass than items of our
own Oort cloud has to offer. Most of us have no idea as to how
massive those Sirius stars were to begin with, and we apparently don’t
want to even contemplate as to the vast extent and massive nature of
what its 8 light year radius Oort cloud has to offer as it encounters
our Oort cloud.

This latest episode of asteroid encounters is becoming more than once
a day that a 10+ tonne rock is directed at us or otherwise encountered
by Earth. Is this going to be considered as too often or about right?

Obviously our planet encounters thousands of those kg or less massive
items most every day (for the most part vaporizing well before surface
contact), although lucky us because, apparently not much of anything
encountered Earth or that of our naked moon throughout all of the
Apollo era (even the sun remained passive, w/o UV or X-rays according
to all of their Kodak film, not to mention local gamma and hard-X-rays
were never an issue, as well as any contrast or dynamic range
limitations of their Kodak film).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorite
According to many others that extensively research into this influx,
whereas roughly 3650 thousand tonnes of stuff gets encountered by our
planet every year (10,000 tonnes/day), and fortunately the vast
majority (99.9%) being of items less than a kg that for the most part
never reach the surface, although some meteorite remainders plus loads
of the really small and low density stuff does manage to filter
through. That’s getting those bigger than kg items down to the dull
roar of perhaps 3650 tonnes per year or 10 tonnes/day that we’ll get
to duck and take cover from, with perhaps only a small percentage
(less than 25%) of that mass surviving its atmospheric entry enough to
impact or land on the surface. Of course those of bigger than 10
tonne items stand a somewhat better chance of getting through and
landing on the surface, especially if comprised of fused basalt or
carbonado along with a sufficient percentage of heavy metals that make
them diamagnetic or even paramagnetic.

There’s actually several teratonnes of paramagnetic basalt from
encountering our physically dark moon, that’s on the surface and
mostly hidden under water. Now that’s what a real nasty asteroid can
deliver in addition to its ice and considerable lithobraking trauma.

[Brad Guth]

On Feb 17, 2:36 pm, "Greg \(Strider\) Moore"

<moor...@ignorethisgreenms.com> wrote:
> >"DonH"  wrote in message
> >news:wr8Us.3759$Ow3....@viwinnwfe02.internal.bigpond.com...
>

> >"Robert Clark" <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote in message

And we're getting closer to the Sirius Oort cloud, if not already
within its radii.

[Bj�rn S�rheim]

On Mon, 18 Feb 2013 02:23:07 +0100, Bj�rn S�rheim
<bsoe...@nixspam.online.no> wrote:

(test ignore)

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 17, 6:30 pm, Sam Wormley <sworml...@gmail.com> wrote:

>    The incoming rock over Russia happens about, on average 3-4 time
>    a year... mostly in places that matter not.

Not that size. According to reports this was the biggest since
Tunguska.


Bob Clark

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 17, 8:23 pm, Bjørn Sørheim <bsoer...@nixspam.online.no> wrote:
> Here you made a MAJOR error. Your argument is way stronger, my friend.
> You probably didn't do much probability computations?
>
> I just choose to accept your numbers for probability  of the two
> phenomena, as they seem to on the right level.
> So the probability of these two different phenomena occuring within
> 24hours is found by multiplying their probability for each separate
> incident. If the probability for the asteroid occuring is Pa, and the
> meteor occuring is Pm, then the two on the same day is Pa times Pm. So
> calculating the probability  is like this:
> 1/30x365x30x365=1/119902500, that is 1 over 100 million!
> So you have to start the discussion over again
> with this imensly low probability in mind.
>
> CNN posted on Saturday an article where an astronomer from Yale came
> to a very similar number. Unfortunately she shot her in the foot by
> saying the two trajectories/orbits were incompatiable. She probably
> bought  that statement from NASA.
> Personally I think these two are connected, and the probability of
> them occuring together is as shown imensly low if not the first is
> producing the latter. So it questions why NASA, at least preliminary,
> said they were not connected.
>

> Bjørn Sørheim
>

Another scientist also came up with a similar immensely low
probability:

Meteor over Russia causes shock waves that injure at least 950.
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on February 15, 2013
"According to NASA (as posted on spaceweather.com), "the trajectory of
the Russian meteorite was significantly different than the trajectory
of the asteroid 2012 DA14, making it a completely unrelated object.
Information is still being collected about the Russian meteorite and
analysis is preliminary at this point. In videos of the meteor, it is
seen to pass from left to right in front of the rising sun, which
means it was traveling from north to south. Asteroid DA14's trajectory
is in the opposite direction, from south to north." The odds of the
largest meteor strike in 100 years occurring on the same day as the
closest asteroid approach in 15 years are about 1 in 200 million,
assuming these events are not correlated--truly a cosmic coincidence!"
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2350

There are different ways of calculating a probability depending on
how you are describing the event. What I was doing is going by the
fact that this date of the closest approach was known for a year since
the asteroid 2012 DA14 discovery. Then having that date already set,
we ask a separate question, how likely is there to be a meteor strike
to the Earth by a large meteor, bolide or ground impact, on that
particular day? That answer, going by a one per 30 years number, is
about 1 in 10,000.
Those other scientists were asking a different question: how likely
is it at any time throughout the billions of days of Earth's history,
is it for a large asteroid to have closest approach and a large
meteorite to impact the Earth on the same day?
I actually like my approach better because by this interpretation
there are hundreds of billions of days in Earth's history so it could
have happened thousands of times. Going by a 4.5 billion age of the
Earth, I estimate about once very 500,000 years.

Bob Clark

[bob haller]

well the elephant in the room question, are these a isolated incident
or the start of a new trend???????

[Robert Clark]

The Air Force does have the capability to detect incoming meteors. IF
there is a connection between this closest approach of an asteroid and
the large Russian meteor encounter, then it would be very important to
find out. There have several cases where calculations show some
asteroids are to make close future approaches but have been deemed of
no threat because they are expected to miss. However, if it is the
case that even asteroids that miss the Earth can be accompanied by
meteors that do impact, then that can have serious consequences for
the larger asteroids. For we might expect the larger asteroids would
also be accompanied by larger meteor fragments that could impact.
It would be hard to prove directly that the Russian meteor is somehow
derived from the 2012 DA14 asteroid. But we might be able draw a
statistical conclusion. The Air Force could review the records of
meteor impacts to determine if there is a correlation between
increased meteor impacts and close asteroid approaches such as in this
case.


Bob Clark

[Jeff Findley]

In article <f083dec5-571b-401d-988a-e007478dda73
@fv9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com>, hal...@aol.com says...

>
> well the elephant in the room question, are these a isolated incident
> or the start of a new trend???????

Probability and statistics. Get some.

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer

[bob haller]

On Feb 19, 8:44 am, Jeff Findley <jeff.find...@nospam.ugs.com> wrote:
> In article <f083dec5-571b-401d-988a-e007478dda73

> @fv9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com>, hall...@aol.com says...

>
>
>
> > well the elephant in the room question, are these a isolated incident
> > or the start of a new trend???????
>
> Probability and statistics.  Get some.
>
> Jeff
> --

=
somepeople ran the numbers, its a real out of this world concidence.

I wonder if the earth is now passing thru a more littered area of
space?

[Jeff Findley]

In article <95b24a5e-9206-4255-b707-
37c529...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>, hal...@aol.com says...

>
> On Feb 19, 8:44ï¿œam, Jeff Findley <jeff.find...@nospam.ugs.com> wrote:
> > In article <f083dec5-571b-401d-988a-e007478dda73
> > @fv9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com>, hall...@aol.com says...
> >
> >
> >
> > > well the elephant in the room question, are these a isolated incident
> > > or the start of a new trend???????
> >

> > Probability and statistics. ï¿œGet some.

>
> somepeople ran the numbers, its a real out of this world concidence.

That's kind-of the definition of an isolated incident.

> I wonder if the earth is now passing thru a more littered area of
> space?

Again, probability and statistics. Get some.

Jeff
--

[Michael Stemper]

In article <95b24a5e-9206-4255...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>, bob haller <hal...@aol.com> writes:
>On Feb 19, 8:44=A0am, Jeff Findley <jeff.find...@nospam.ugs.com> wrote:
>> In article <f083dec5-571b-401d...@fv9g2000vbb.googlegroups.com>, hall...@aol.com says...

>> > well the elephant in the room question, are these a isolated incident
>> > or the start of a new trend???????
>>

>> Probability and statistics. =A0Get some.
>=3D

>somepeople ran the numbers, its a real out of this world concidence.
>
>I wonder if the earth is now passing thru a more littered area of
>space?

That would only be a meaningful thing to speculate on if the meteor and
the asteroid were sitting still in that volume of space. As it is, they
were both moving, and in differing directions. In other words, they were
in different places the day before the big excitement, and the asteroid
is now a long ways from where it was when it had its closest approach
with the Earth.

(Your speculation might be meaningful if they were moving with roughly
the same velocity, as in the case of the Perseids.)

--
Michael F. Stemper
#include <Standard_Disclaimer>
"Writing about jazz is like dancing about architecture" - Thelonious Monk

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 18, 8:46 am, Bjørn Sørheim <bsoer...@nixspam.online.no> wrote:
> Here you made a MAJOR error. Your argument is way stronger, my friend.
> You probably didn't do much probability computations?
>
> I just choose to accept your numbers for probability  of the two
> phenomena, as they seem to on the right level.
> So the probability of these two different phenomena occuring within
> 24hours is found by multiplying their probability for each separate
> incident. If the probability for the asteroid occuring is Pa, and the
> meteor occuring is Pm, then the two on the same day is Pa times Pm. So
> calculating the probability  is like this:
> 1/30x365x30x365=1/119902500, that is 1 over 100 million!
> So you have to start the discussion over again
> with this imensly low probability in mind.
>
> CNN posted on Saturday an article where an astronomer from Yale came
> to a very similar number. Unfortunately she shot her in the foot by
> saying the two trajectories/orbits were incompatiable. She probably
> bought  that statement from NASA.
> Personally I think these two are connected, and the probability of
> them occuring together is as shown imensly low if not the first is
> producing the latter. So it questions why NASA, at least preliminary,
> said they were not connected.
>
> Bjørn Sørheim
>

> On Sun, 17 Feb 2013 07:26:38 -0800 (PST), Robert Clark
>
>

> <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
> >the size of 2012 DA14  getting this close occur about once in 30
> >years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
> >about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
> >the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
> >particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
> >Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
> >365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
> >10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
> >On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
> >be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
> >large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>

Here's the article by the Yale astronomer:

A meteor and asteroid: 1 in 100 million odds.
By Meg Urry, Special to CNN
updated 8:16 PM EST, Mon February 18, 2013
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/16/opinion/urry-meteor-asteroid/index.html

She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.
In view of the very real dangers that would arise IF it is the case
they are related I think we should investigate some possible ways this
could occur. What I mean by this is cases where we assume asteroids
that make close approaches but do not impact, and therefore offer no
threat, still could have associated fragments that do impact.
One way is mentioned in the comment section to this NASA blog which
shows the different orbits of the asteroid and the meteor:

How Do We Know the Russian Meteor and 2012 DA14 Aren't Related?
Posted on Feb 16, 2013 11:37:14 AM | William Cooke | 25 Comments |
http://blogs.nasa.gov/cm/blog/Watch%20the%20Skies/posts/post_1361037562855.html

First though, note there are many ways a fragment could be separated
from the main asteroid. For instance some asteroids are "rubble
piles", loosely held together by gravity. In this case collisions
among the individual fragments could send a fragment away from the
main asteroid body.
Another is the obvious way of a collision with another asteroid or
meteor.
Still another would be outgassing of volatiles that provides another
force to separate a fragment from the asteroid.

Then once the fragment is separated from the asteroid, over time,
since it was given some initial boost away and the asteroid gravity is
so small, it will travel further and further away from the asteroid,
though still in the same or close orbit. But the key point is
depending on the direction the fragment is sent, once the asteroid
comes around to the Earth or Moon or other planet on a close approach,
that fragment could be much closer to that large gravitating body than
the asteroid and therefore be sent on a different orbit.
Then on subsequent orbits it could impact the gravitating body.
Indeed it could even be captured by the gravitating body, such as the
Earth, depending on the speed it is traveling with respect to the
body. For instance asteroid 2012 DA14 was traveling at 18,641 mph,
about 8.3 km/s on closest approach. At the distance it passed the
Earth at 17,000 miles this is greater than escape velocity. But it's
less than escape velocity at the Earth's surface. So a fragment that
happened to be closer in to use on that closest approach could have
been captured.


Bob Clark

[Greg (Strider) Moore]

"bob haller" wrote in message
news:95b24a5e-9206-4255...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com...

Do you understand how your two comments are contradictory?

Orbital mechanics, learn some.

[David Bernier]

On 02/19/2013 02:52 PM, Robert Clark wrote:

> On Feb 18, 8:46 am, Bj�rn S�rheim<bsoer...@nixspam.online.no> wrote:
>> Here you made a MAJOR error. Your argument is way stronger, my friend.
>> You probably didn't do much probability computations?
>>
>> I just choose to accept your numbers for probability of the two
>> phenomena, as they seem to on the right level.
>> So the probability of these two different phenomena occuring within
>> 24hours is found by multiplying their probability for each separate
>> incident. If the probability for the asteroid occuring is Pa, and the
>> meteor occuring is Pm, then the two on the same day is Pa times Pm. So
>> calculating the probability is like this:
>> 1/30x365x30x365=1/119902500, that is 1 over 100 million!
>> So you have to start the discussion over again
>> with this imensly low probability in mind.
>>
>> CNN posted on Saturday an article where an astronomer from Yale came
>> to a very similar number. Unfortunately she shot her in the foot by
>> saying the two trajectories/orbits were incompatiable. She probably
>> bought that statement from NASA.
>> Personally I think these two are connected, and the probability of
>> them occuring together is as shown imensly low if not the first is
>> producing the latter. So it questions why NASA, at least preliminary,
>> said they were not connected.
>>

>> Bj�rn S�rheim

This is what I think: it's too early to conclude or speculate
that meteorites and asteroids now have an increased
chance of impacting earth, on average.

dave

[Richard Tobin]

In article <3246ca96-d581-45bc...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>,

Robert Clark <rgrego...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
>unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
>both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.

No, it's not puzzling. It would only be puzzling if there was an
explanation and you couldn't find it. But there isn't an explanation,
and doesn't need to be.

-- Richard

[Jeff Findley]

In article <kg29a9$27od$1...@matchbox.inf.ed.ac.uk>,
ric...@cogsci.ed.ac.uk says...

This is the definition of a pure coincidence. Nothing special.

[Sam Wormley]

On 2/19/13 9:06 AM, bob haller wrote:

>
> I wonder if the earth is now passing thru a more littered area of
> space?
>

It's a fair question. Not only did the two events not share the
same orbit, but there is no indication the earth's space environment
is changing in a measurable way over decades and centuries.

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 20, 8:40 am, Jeff Findley <jeff.find...@nospam.ugs.com> wrote:
> In article <kg29a9$27o...@matchbox.inf.ed.ac.uk>,
> rich...@cogsci.ed.ac.uk says...
>
>
>
> > In article <3246ca96-d581-45bc-b8b5-25d4ebd07...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>,

> > Robert Clark  <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > > She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
> > >unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
> > >both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.
>
> > No, it's not puzzling.  It would only be puzzling if there was an
> > explanation and you couldn't find it.  But there isn't an explanation,
> > and doesn't need to be.
>
> This is the definition of a pure coincidence.  Nothing special.
>
> Jeff
> --

Nobody has actually looked, officially, for an explanation that
doesn't mean one doesn't exist.

Bob Clark

[Robert Clark]

Extraordinary video that shows how often we are visited by visitors
from the sky ...


An Asteroid's Parting Shot.
By Phil Plait
Posted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, at 8:00 AM
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/19/near_earth_asteroid_2012_da14_seen_in_time_lapse_video.html


Bob Clark

[Steve Willner]

In article <3246ca96-d581-45bc...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>,

Robert Clark <rgrego...@yahoo.com> writes:
> First though, note there are many ways a fragment could be separated
> from the main asteroid.

As I understand it, about 1/3 of near-Earth asteroids have moons.

> depending on the direction the fragment is sent, once the asteroid
> comes around to the Earth or Moon or other planet on a close approach,
> that fragment could be much closer to that large gravitating body than
> the asteroid and therefore be sent on a different orbit.

In which case it's an independent object following its own orbit, no
longer a companion of the first object.

> Then on subsequent orbits it could impact the gravitating body.

Yes, it would on average have just as much or as little chance of
impacting as any other NEO. For a specific object, one would have to
know the orbit.

> Indeed it could even be captured by the gravitating body, such as the
> Earth,

Only if it comes close enough to lose energy in the atmosphere.
That's a tiny probability but not zero.

> For instance asteroid 2012 DA14 was traveling at 18,641 mph,
> about 8.3 km/s on closest approach. At the distance it passed the
> Earth at 17,000 miles this is greater than escape velocity. But it's
> less than escape velocity at the Earth's surface.

If it had come closer to Earth, it would have been going faster
because Earth's gravity would have accelerated it more.

--
Help keep our newsgroup healthy; please don't feed the trolls.
Steve Willner Phone 617-495-7123 swil...@cfa.harvard.edu
Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 20, 5:38 pm, will...@cfa.harvard.edu (Steve Willner) wrote:
> In article <3246ca96-d581-45bc-b8b5-25d4ebd07...@j9g2000vbz.googlegroups.com>,

Thanks for the info. On this page it says the orbits "cross" at two
locations, or more precisely, which
body is on the outside orbit changes twice per orbit:

La Sagra Observatory discovers very near-Earth asteroid 2012 DA14.
Posted By Jaime Nomen
2012/03/27 05:20 CDT
"The preliminary orbit shows that 2012 DA14 has a very Earth-Like
orbit with a period of 366.24 days, just one more day than our
terrestrial year. The orbit is nearly circular but just elliptical
enough to jump inside and outside of the path of Earth two times per
year. Because objects move faster when they are closer to the Sun, the
relative motion is similar to some sports races: when the Earth is on
the outer track, it is overtaken by 2012 DA14, but when the asteroid
crosses Earth's orbit, Earth overtakes it and passes by. It is during
the orbit crossings when the closest encounters occur, and when there
is potential for a future impact."
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/3418.html

Does this mean there are two close approaches per orbit? It doesn't
necessarily have to be since where the two orbits "cross" does not
mean the two bodies have to be there at the same time. On the other
hand because they have similar orbits and therefor similar speeds, if
they are close at one "crossing" point, they should be relatively
close at the other.


Bob Clark

[Brad Guth]

On Feb 17, 7:26 am, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>  I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
> the size of 2012 DA14  getting this close occur about once in 30
> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
> On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
> be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
> large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>

> Bob Clark

Not that most would care to be honestly interested in science or
physics, but we as a solar system are not alone, nor as isolated as
we've been mainstream indoctrinated to believe. Our solar system
island is not only surrounded by other solar systems and their vast
Oort clouds, but many other wandering/nomad items are continually
passing through.

“This isn't over”, because we still have the incoming Sirius Oort
cloud to deal with.

How very true indeed that asteroid trauma isn’t over, whereas many
asteroids and rogue planetoids have those tag-along rocks of multi-
thousand tonnes, plus the ongoing interactions with debris from
another nearby Oort cloud of considerable items that is going to keep
us on our toes from here on out. Our closing distance to Sirius could
eventually bring those stars within a light year, and their 8 ly radii
Oort cloud has at least a millionfold items perhaps averaging a
thousandfold mass to those of our wussy Oort cloud, making the worse
case Sirius Oort cloud combined/all-inclusive mass potentially worth a
billion times as massive as our Oort cloud of 3e25 kg ~ 3e26 kg.

It seems we do not know how many planets Sirius(b) originally had, and
that density of its original Oort cloud prior to becoming a white
dwarf is still a very big unknown, especially since most of the items
within the Sirius Oort cloud are going to be physically dark and
relatively cold at less than 10 w/m2, unless those Sirius stars had
brown dwarf companions and/or gas giants to spare.

No doubt that most of the really big stuff having escaped from Sirius,
that exited at perhaps 40 km/sec (maximum of 64 km/sec) has likely by
now having exceed 100 ly radii, and still moving away from us and our
local group of stars at a sufficient escape velocity (possibly 5~10 km/
sec). Meanwhile the ongoing trajectory of Sirius is still closing in
on our sun at 7.5 km/sec, perhaps for yet another cosmological cycle
that should be sufficient to melt most every cubic meter of glacial
ice (similar to what happened before).

A starshade for JWST, or other IR observations such as ESA-Herschel,
could allow us to quantify the future threat from Sirius, not to
mention spotting a few other wandering nomad planets in between or
passing through our galactic neck of the woods. Of course, if we
don’t bother to look, and just sit around waiting for the next
asteroid or planetoid encounter that will happen, we can save
ourselves a great deal of loot in exchange for trillions of dollars
lost due to unprepared terrestrial infrastructure and underground
habitats within our moon that we should have developed anyway.

The good news is that we honestly do not have to bother with
exploiting our moon, Mars or Venus, because the human population of
Earth that’s becoming resource depleted and even less genetically
evolved for the better, could just as easily be wiped out most any
time. Even if the all-inclusive Sirius Oort cloud mass is only worth
a few solar masses, whereas the odds of our planet being continually
spared is simply much more unlikely than previously thought, not to
mention what our encountering the Andromeda galaxy at 300+ km/sec and
then having a red giant sun is going to do in order to finish us off.

So, let the good times roll, and otherwise let future generations suck
it up.

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 19, 2:52 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>
>
>  Here's the article by the Yale astronomer:
>
> A meteor and asteroid: 1 in 100 million odds.
> By Meg Urry, Special to CNN

> updated 8:16 PM EST, Mon February 18, 2013http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/16/opinion/urry-meteor-asteroid/index.html

>
>  She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
> unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
> both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.
>  In view of the very real dangers that would arise IF it is the case
> they are related I think we should investigate some possible ways this
> could occur. What I mean by this is cases where we assume asteroids
> that make close approaches but do not impact, and therefore offer no
> threat, still could have associated fragments that do impact.

> ...

Smaller fireballs were also seen over Florida and San Francisco:

Florida fireballs? Experts say Florida fireball was a small meteorite
FLORIDA FIREBALLS FEBRUARY 19, 2013 BY: ED WALSH
http://www.examiner.com/article/florida-fireballs-experts-say-florida-fireball-was-a-small-meteorite

Francisco Bay area residents report fireball sighting
By Associated Press,February 16, 2013
http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-16/national/37127918_1_american-meteor-society-large-meteor-fireballs

The Air Force has infrasound detectors that can measure atmospheric
explosions. The size of these fireballs needs to be determined to find
out how rare they are. In those articles they say both that they occur
everyday and also they occur at the rate of 5 to 10 a year. If their
size is such they occur even ten times a year, then the probability of
one of these meteors of this size occurring on one day is 1 in 36. Now
the probability of all three events happening on the same day jumps to
1 in several billion.

The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this
is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like
2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of
geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though
that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible
to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by
fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because
its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger
fragments.

To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of
the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to
find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous
close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.


Bob Clark

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 23, 3:27 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> ..

> The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this
> is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like
> 2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of
> geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though
> that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible
> to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by
> fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because
> its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger
> fragments.
> To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of
> the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to
> find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous
> close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.
>

Meteor expert Clark Chapman and former astronaut Rusty Schweickart
urge U.S. military to re-initiate sharing of satellite detections of
meteor impacts:

Russian Meteor Fallout: Military Satellite Data Should Be Shared.
by Leonard David, SPACE.com’s Space Insider Columnist
Date: 18 February 2013 Time: 09:03 AM ET
http://www.space.com/19846-russian-meteor-fallout-military-satellites.html

From links in the article, the military formerly did share this
information but the policy was changed in 2009. This is important
because the satellites reportedly have the capability to detect
meteors down to 1 meter wide and below. This would well have the
capability to determine if close asteroid flybys result in increased
meteor impacts.


Bob Clark

[Brad Guth]

On Feb 23, 12:27 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Feb 19, 2:52 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> >  Here's the article by the Yale astronomer:
>
> > A meteor and asteroid: 1 in 100 million odds.
> > By Meg Urry, Special to CNN
> > updated 8:16 PM EST, Mon February 18, 2013http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/16/opinion/urry-meteor-asteroid/index.html
>
> >  She states the two have very different orbits so they should be
> > unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their
> > both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling.
> >  In view of the very real dangers that would arise IF it is the case
> > they are related I think we should investigate some possible ways this
> > could occur. What I mean by this is cases where we assume asteroids
> > that make close approaches but do not impact, and therefore offer no
> > threat, still could have associated fragments that do impact.
> > ...
>
> Smaller fireballs were also seen over Florida and San Francisco:
>
> Florida fireballs? Experts say Florida fireball was a small meteorite

> FLORIDA FIREBALLS FEBRUARY 19, 2013 BY: ED WALSHhttp://www.examiner.com/article/florida-fireballs-experts-say-florida...

>
> Francisco Bay area residents report fireball sighting

> By Associated Press,February 16, 2013http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-02-16/national/37127918_1_ame...

>
> The Air Force has infrasound detectors that can measure atmospheric
> explosions. The size of these fireballs needs to be determined to find
> out how rare they are. In those articles they say both that they occur
> everyday and also they occur at the rate of 5 to 10 a year. If their
> size is such they occur even ten times a year, then the probability of
> one of these meteors of this size occurring on one day is 1 in 36. Now
> the probability of all three events happening on the same day jumps to
> 1 in several billion.
>
> The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this
> is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like
> 2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of
> geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though
> that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible
> to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by
> fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because
> its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger
> fragments.
>
> To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of
> the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to
> find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous
> close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.
>
>   Bob Clark

Getting the USAF or any other military agency to share public funded
science isn't going to happen, at least not within our generation.

Thanks to our NASA/Apollo era of double/triple agents getting away
with all sorts of Paperclip Nazi stuff, is why any cross-agency
collaboration simply isn't going to happen.

[Steve Willner]

SW> If it had come closer to Earth, it would have been going faster
SW> because Earth's gravity would have accelerated it more.

In article <41077f5f-edbb-4e71...@14g2000vbr.googlegroups.com>,

Robert Clark <rgrego...@yahoo.com> writes:
> "The preliminary orbit shows that 2012 DA14 has a very Earth-Like
> orbit with a period of 366.24 days, just one more day than our
> terrestrial year.

That means its energy with respect to the Earth at infinite distance
is nearly zero. Therefore, during a close approach, the velocity
with respect to Earth will always be very near the escape velocity at
the actual altitude the asteroid is at.

> Does this mean there are two close approaches per orbit? It doesn't
> necessarily have to be since where the two orbits "cross" does not
> mean the two bodies have to be there at the same time.

Yes, exactly. Typically one body will be far away when the other is
near a crossing point.

> if they are close at one "crossing" point, they should be
> relatively close at the other.

About half a day away at the next crossing point, given the period of
366.24 days. That's about 400 Earth radii if I've done the
arithmetic right. The distance is cumulative, so a simple estimate
is that it will take another 366 years (365 orbits for the asteroid)
before there's another close approach. However, the recent Earth
encounter must have changed the orbit, so the simple estimate is
probably wrong. There are also likely to be non-gravitational
effects. This object is probably not one to worry about in the near
term, but this sort of rough estimate is no substitute for a proper
orbit calculation.

[palsing]

On Sunday, February 17, 2013 7:26:38 AM UTC-8, Robert Clark wrote:
> I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
>
> the size of 2012 DA14 getting this close occur about once in 30
>
> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
>
> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
>
> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
>
> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
>
> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
>
> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
>
> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
>
> On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
>
> be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
>
> large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>
>
>
> Bob Clark

I believe the matter has now been settled...

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/26feb_russianmeteor/

http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2013/02/26/orbits.jpg

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 23, 6:09 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Feb 23, 3:27 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > ..
> > The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this
> > is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like
> > 2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of
> > geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though
> > that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible
> > to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by
> > fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because
> > its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger
> > fragments.
> > To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of
> > the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to
> > find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous
> > close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.
>
> Meteor expert Clark Chapman and former astronaut Rusty Schweickart
> urge U.S. military to re-initiate sharing of satellite detections of
> meteor impacts:
>
> Russian Meteor Fallout: Military Satellite Data Should Be Shared.
> by Leonard David, SPACE.com’s Space Insider Columnist

> Date: 18 February 2013 Time: 09:03 AM EThttp://www.space.com/19846-russian-meteor-fallout-military-satellites...

>
> From links in the article, the military formerly did share this
> information but the policy was changed in 2009. This is important
> because the satellites reportedly have the capability to detect
> meteors down to 1 meter wide and below. This would well have the
> capability to determine if close asteroid flybys result in increased
> meteor impacts.
>
> Bob Clark

That video I linked to previously and ones like it may also be able
to address this question:

An Asteroid's Parting Shot.
By Phil Plait
Posted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, at 8:00 AM
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/19/near_earth_asteroid_2012_da14_seen_in_time_lapse_video.html

The video shows 2012 DA14 slowing moving through the frame, and
meteors and artificial satellites streaking rapidly through the frame.
Assuming we are able to distinguish the satellites, perhaps by
knowing already their positions, perhaps we can determine if the
number of meteors shown here are higher than normal.
Better would be longer exposures that include at least the time
period of the Russian meteor impact.


Bob Clark

[ji...@specsol.spam.sux.com]

In sci.physics Robert Clark <rgrego...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> That video I linked to previously and ones like it may also be able
> to address this question:
>
> An Asteroid's Parting Shot.
> By Phil Plait
> Posted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, at 8:00 AM
> http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/19/near_earth_asteroid_2012_da14_seen_in_time_lapse_video.html
>
> The video shows 2012 DA14 slowing moving through the frame, and
> meteors and artificial satellites streaking rapidly through the frame.
> Assuming we are able to distinguish the satellites, perhaps by
> knowing already their positions, perhaps we can determine if the
> number of meteors shown here are higher than normal.
> Better would be longer exposures that include at least the time
> period of the Russian meteor impact.
>
>
> Bob Clark

While people here have been speculating all sorts of nonsense, astronomers
from the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia have figured out
where the Russian meteor came from and that it has no relationship to
the other close passing asteroid.

http://www.space.com/19974-russian-meteor-explosion-origin-size.html

[Steve Willner]

In article <58e4e000-69f3-42cb...@googlegroups.com>,
palsing <pnal...@gmail.com> writes:
> http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/26feb_russianmeteor/

The cited entry speed of 40000 mph tells us immediately that the
object was not related to 2012 DA14. Had that or a related object
hit, the entry speeed would have been close to escape speed, about
25000 mph.

One analysis of the actual orbit of the Chelyabinsk object is at
http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.5377
I don't know whether the analysis is correct or not, but at least the
authors explain their methods and assumptions. I expect a similar
analysis combining the camera and infrasound data should do much
better.

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 27, 1:33 pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:

> In sci.physics Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> > That video I linked to previously and ones like it may also be able
> > to address this question:
>
> > An Asteroid's Parting Shot.
> > By Phil Plait
> > Posted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, at 8:00 AM

> >http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/19/near_earth_astero...

>
> > The video shows 2012 DA14 slowing moving through the frame, and
> > meteors and artificial satellites streaking rapidly through the frame.
> > Assuming we are able to distinguish the satellites, perhaps by
> > knowing already their positions, perhaps we can determine if the
> > number of meteors shown here are higher than normal.
> > Better would be longer exposures that include at least the time
> > period of the Russian meteor impact.
>
> >  Bob Clark
>
> While people here have been speculating all sorts of nonsense, astronomers
> from the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia have figured out
> where the Russian meteor came from and that it has no relationship to
> the other close passing asteroid.
>
> http://www.space.com/19974-russian-meteor-explosion-origin-size.html

The Fireballs of February.
Feb. 22, 2012
...
"They all hail from the asteroid belt—but not from a single location
in the asteroid belt," he says. "There is no common source for these
fireballs, which is puzzling."
"This isn't the first time sky watchers have noticed odd fireballs in
February. In fact, the "Fireballs of February" are a bit of a legend
in meteor circles.
"Brown explains: "Back in the 1960s and 70s, amateur astronomers
noticed an increase in the number of bright, sound-producing deep-
penetrating fireballs during the month of February. The numbers seemed
significant, especially when you consider that there are few people
outside at night in winter. Follow-up studies in the late 1980s
suggested no big increase in the rate of February fireballs.
Nevertheless, we've always wondered if something was going on."
"Indeed, a 1990 study by astronomer Ian Holliday suggests that the
'February Fireballs' are real. He analyzed photographic records of
about a thousand fireballs from the 1970s and 80s and found evidence
for a fireball stream intersecting Earth's orbit in February. He also
found signs of fireball streams in late summer and fall. The results
are controversial, however. Even Halliday recognized some big
statistical uncertainties in his results."
...
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22feb_februaryfireballs/

Note this was from last year, not this year in regard to this
February's unusual meteor and asteroid encounters. But what's key is
the article notes this has been noticed in other February's.
The article suggests greater number of fireballs in February. It also
mentions they are typically slow, long-lasting, and penetrate deep in
the atmosphere. I don't know about the slow part, but the long-lasting
and deep penetration aspects could be due to larger meteors during
February's.
If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
Also notable as Steve Willner mentioned the two orbital crossings
could result in rather close approaches on the second crossing as
well:

On Feb 26, 1:56 pm, will...@cfa.harvard.edu (Steve Willner) wrote:
> ...

>
> > Does this mean there are two close approaches per orbit? It doesn't
> > necessarily have to be since where the two orbits "cross" does not
> > mean the two bodies have to be there at the same time.
>
> Yes, exactly. Typically one body will be far away when the other is
> near a crossing point.
>
> > if they are close at one "crossing" point, they should be
> > relatively close at the other.
>
> About half a day away at the next crossing point, given the period of
> 366.24 days. That's about 400 Earth radii if I've done the
> arithmetic right. The distance is cumulative, so a simple estimate
> is that it will take another 366 years (365 orbits for the asteroid)
> before there's another close approach. However, the recent Earth
> encounter must have changed the orbit, so the simple estimate is
> probably wrong. There are also likely to be non-gravitational
> effects. This object is probably not one to worry about in the near
> term, but this sort of rough estimate is no substitute for a proper
> orbit calculation.
>

This could explain the observation of Halliday that there seems to be
a statistical increase also in late Summer and Fall.

In any case, the Air Force needs to release its satellite detections
of these fireballs. For one thing they might be able to detect the
meteors before they have any appreciable interaction with the
atmosphere. For large meteors, of oblong shape, the atmospheric
interaction could alter their direction, thus giving a misleading
interpretation of their original orbits.

For many people the Air Force not sharing all the technical means at
its disposal led to the loss of the shuttle Columbia crew. It must not
be said that its keeping its meteor detections capability secret led
to the loss of an entire city.

Bob Clark

[Brad Guth]

> ...http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22feb_febru...

Since when do mainstream oligarchs care about the rest of us?

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 27, 3:57 pm, will...@cfa.harvard.edu (Steve Willner) wrote:
> ...

> One analysis of the actual orbit of the Chelyabinsk object is athttp://arxiv.org/abs/1302.5377

> I don't know whether the analysis is correct or not, but at least the
> authors explain their methods and assumptions.  I expect a similar
> analysis combining the camera and infrasound data should do much
> better.
>
> --

Even more so if the Air Force shared its satellite meteor detection
data.

Bob Clark

[Brad Guth]

Soon enough we'll get an asteroid per day, as added to the growing
stack of potentially lethal items encountering Earth.

[Davoud]

Robert Clark:

> For many people the Air Force not sharing all the technical means at
> its disposal led to the loss of the shuttle Columbia crew. It must not
> be said that its keeping its meteor detections capability secret led
> to the loss of an entire city.

It doesn't matter how many people believe some nonsense about the
Columbia, it's not true. Can you imagine how many hours or days in
advance the AF would have to have known a meteor was going to collide
with the Columbia!? Not possible. The Air Force has no "meteor
detections capability," secret or otherwise, because the AF is not in
the business of detecting meteors, even if it does so inadvertently
from time to time. The AF does not operate the U.S. space
reconnaissance program.

By that token, if a meteor destroys a whole city it won't be the fault
of the Air Force except in deranged minds. For each nutter who blamed
the Air Force for not detecting a meteor there would be two other
nutters who blamed the AF for not shooting down a UFO.

We mustn't let conspiracy theorists and other nut cases run our science.

--
I agree with almost everything that you have said and almost everything that
you will say in your entire life.

usenet *at* davidillig dawt cawm

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 28, 3:21 pm, Davoud <s...@sky.net> wrote:
> Robert Clark:
>
> >  For many people the Air Force not sharing all the technical means at
> > its disposal led to the loss of the shuttle Columbia crew. It must not
> > be said that its keeping its meteor detections capability secret led
> > to the loss  of an entire city.
>
> It doesn't matter how many people believe some nonsense about the
> Columbia, it's not true. Can you imagine how many hours or days in
> advance the AF would have to have known a meteor was going to collide
> with the Columbia!? Not possible. The Air Force has no "meteor
> detections capability," secret or otherwise, because the AF is not in
> the business of detecting meteors, even if it does so inadvertently
> from time to time. The AF does not operate the U.S. space
> reconnaissance program.
>
> By that token, if a meteor destroys a whole city it won't be the fault
> of the Air Force except in deranged minds. For each nutter who blamed
> the Air Force for not detecting a meteor there would be two other
> nutters who blamed the AF for not shooting down a UFO.
>
> We mustn't let conspiracy theorists and other nut cases run our science.
>
> --

Needless to say, the implication was not that Columbia was destroyed
by a meteor, but that the Air Force's various imaging and detection
capabilities were not shared before Columbia attempted re-entry.
In regards to the Air Force having meteor detection capability the
Air Force has acknowledged this.

Bob Clark

On Feb 23, 6:09 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

>...

[ji...@specsol.spam.sux.com]

In sci.physics Robert Clark <rgrego...@yahoo.com> wrote:

<snip>

> In any case, the Air Force needs to release its satellite detections
> of these fireballs. For one thing they might be able to detect the
> meteors before they have any appreciable interaction with the
> atmosphere. For large meteors, of oblong shape, the atmospheric
> interaction could alter their direction, thus giving a misleading
> interpretation of their original orbits.

So what if they did?

What would it change other than perhaps the time it takes to figure out
where the thing came from?

Maybe if it were accurate enough and fast enough there could be a radio
broadcast in the area where the meteror is going to hit along the lines
of "Bend over and kiss your ass goodby. You will be hit by a meteor in
27 seconds".

The technology does not exist to shoot down a rock, which is an oxymoron
anyway as the only thing that can be "shot down" is airplanes.

The money does not exist to develop a system to do anything meaningfull
to a falling rock.

The money does not exist to then deploy a system to do anything meaningfull
to a falling rock.

In the 237 year history of the USA how much meteor damage has the USA
suffered?

This is all just arm waving bafflegab.






--
Jim Pennino

[Greg (Strider) Moore]

"Robert Clark" wrote in message
news:ee2bd649-a99d-4b19...@y4g2000yqa.googlegroups.com...

>
>
> For many people the Air Force not sharing all the technical means at
>its disposal led to the loss of the shuttle Columbia crew.

In what reality?

The Air Force would have gladly shared the data had it been asked for. They
had done so in the past when asked.

> It must not
>be said that its keeping its meteor detections capability secret led
>to the loss of an entire city.
>
> Bob Clark
>
>

--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

[Robert Clark]

On Feb 28, 2:38 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
...

>  If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
> it  has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
> fireballs  are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
> last year in February also during a close approach.

> ...

On Mar 5, 11:31 am, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:
>
> Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
> Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
> http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/
>
>   Bob Clark

Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.


Bob Clark

[bob haller]

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....

And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........

[Brad Guth]

The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several
thousands years to come.

[Robert Clark]

Why just the Sirius Oort clouds? It has been suggested that the Alpha
Centauri system Oort clouds and ours already intermingle.


Bob Clark

[Robert Clark]

Yes, you linked:

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1985/1985_Stothers.pdf

This proposes oscillation of the Sun about the galactic plane over
time scales of millions of years as the cause. Other possible causes
described here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event#Patterns_in_frequency


Bob Clark

[Brad Guth]

Sirius(a) was one a very big sucker, and most of its mass is
supposedly still out there in addition to whatever planets, moons and
asteroids it once had a very strong tidal radius grip upon.

[Robert Clark]

On Mar 6, 1:27 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> ...

> This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
> perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
> close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.
> For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
> expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
> large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
> So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
> either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
> Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.
> Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
> time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
> begin piling up greater and greater.
>

Another recent comet came unusually close to the Earth in 2010:

Comet and Earth to Have Rare Close Encounter.
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist Date: 01 October 2010
Time: 08:41 AM ET
[quote]Rare close encounter
This fall, Comet Hartley 2 will again be passing through the inner
solar system, reaching its closest point to the sun (called
perihelion) on Oct. 28 at a distance of 98.4 million miles (158.4
million km).
And while en route to the sun, it will also make a very close approach
to the Earth. In fact, at 3 p.m. ET on Oct. 20, the comet will be at
its closest point to our planet at a distance of 11.2 million miles
(18 million km).
It's quite unusual for any comet to approach this close to Earth. Such
an event only happens on average perhaps three or four times a
century.
[url]http://www.space.com/9240-comet-earth-rare-close-encounter.html[/
url][/quote]

So in a year the chance of a comet getting this close is between 1 in
33 to 1 in 25. Then over a 3 year period about 1 chance in 10. Now the
chance of all these rare events occurring within the same short time
frame is in the range of tens of billions to one.

Additionally we have the unusual comet coming up in November this
year, Comet ISON, expected to be one of the brightest in history:

The 9 Most Brilliant Comets Ever Seen.
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist Date: 05 October 2012
Time: 12:24 PM ET
[quote]Comets that are visible to the naked eye during the daytime are
rare, but such cases are not unique. In the last 332 years, it has
happened only nine other times. Here is a listing of past comets that
have achieved this amazing feat.
[url]http://www.space.com/17918-9-most-brilliant-great-comets.html[/
url][/quote]

Now based on this rarity, the combination of unlikely events
happening on such a short time scale raises to an unlikelihood of
hundreds of billions to one.

This comet also will get unusually close to Mars at 0.07 AU, 10
million km:

Comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) is on its way to skirt around the Sun in
November 2013. Will Comet ISON achieve Great Comet status? I summarize
what we know about this promising comet and what it might become.
[quote]Earth and Mars Close Approaches.
Comet ISON makes two interesting close approaches. The first, in
October 2013, we will watch the comet pass by Mars at the small
distance of only 0.07 AU. This distance is small on the grand scale of
the Solar System, but it is still 10 million kilometers. The close
encounter may make comet ISON observable to NASA and ESA's spacecraft
orbiting Mars. Maybe we can even hope to see a picture of ISON from
NASA's Curiosity rover?
Although there is no possibility of such a close approach between the
Earth and comet, the second close approach I want to bring up will be
between the comet's orbit and the Earth. In January 2014, the Earth
will swing past a part of space that Comet ISON already traveled
through, at a small distance of only 0.03 AU. This encounter brings up
the possibility of a meteor shower on Earth. Meteor showers from Oort
Cloud comets are rare events indeed. Stay tuned while astronomers
consider this possibility.
[url]http://www.astro.umd.edu/~msk/blog/articles/comet-ison-jan13[/
url]
[/quote]

Assuming comets get so close as a small fraction of an AU to Mars as
rarely as they do to Earth, then on that basis we would also conclude,
aside from the brightness issue, that this comet adds another order of
magnitude to the unlikelihood of all the events occurring on such a
short time frame. (This consideration does not tack on another factor
of ten since this comet is already counted. It just offers another way
to draw the same conclusion.)

Note also the unlikelihood is almost certainly actually trillions to
one because the case of a comet the size of Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding
Spring) getting within just thousands of kilometers of a terrestrial
planet has to be [I]extremely[/I] rare, much worse than the 40 to 1 I
estimated previously.

This comet remember dwarfs the size of the asteroid that wiped out
the dinosaurs and would cause an even worse global extinction level
event if one of such size were to impact Earth.

Now note that trillions to one odds are such that we would not expect
it to happen during the entire age of the Solar System.


Bob Clark

[bob haller]

perhaps this area of space has more debris, or something unknown is
distorting their orbits?

[bob haller]

On Mar 11, 11:20 pm, Fred J. McCall <fjmcc...@gmail.com> wrote:

> bob haller <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
>
> >perhaps this area of space has more debris, or something unknown is
> >distorting their orbits?
>

> Or perhaps God farted.
>
> Get a new whine, Bobbert.
>
> --
> "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
>  territory."
>                                       --G. Behn

given the err astronomical odds involved my theory is better than your
farts.........

so whats your theory?

[Robert Clark]

On Mar 11, 8:55 pm, bob haller <hall...@aol.com> wrote:
> On Mar 11, 1:34 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:

> ...

> >  Now note that trillions to one odds are such that we would not expect
> > it to happen during the entire age of the Solar System.
>
> >   Bob Clark
>
> perhaps this area of space has more debris, or something unknown is
> distorting their orbits?

Here are some suggested physical phenomena that could cause periodic
cometary impacts that were proposed to explain the periodic
extinctions that have been observed in Earth's fossil record:

Extinction event.
Patterns in frequency
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event#Patterns_in_frequency

It is notable that one of them suggests such an increase in comets
should be occurring geologically "soon":

CAMBRIDGE CONFERENCE DIGEST, 02/02/98
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc020298.html

Another perhaps more benign explanation is a theory proposed in 2007
there should be an increase in the number of sun grazing comets the
next few years:

Kreutz Sungrazers
"Several members of the Kreutz family have become Great Comets,
occasionally visible near the Sun in the daytime sky. The most recent
of these was Comet Ikeya–Seki in 1965, which may have been one of the
brightest comets in the last millennium.[1] It has been suggested that
another cluster of bright Kreutz system comets may begin to arrive in
the inner Solar System in the next few years to decades.[2]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kreutz_Sungrazers

This appears to have been validated:

"Suicide" Comet Storm Hits Sun—Bigger Sun-Kisser Coming?
Andrew Fazekas
for National Geographic News
Published January 17, 2011
[Quote]A recent storm of small comets that pelted the sun could herald
the coming a much bigger icy visitor, astronomers say.
Since its launch in 1995, NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory,
or SOHO, orbiter has captured pictures of 2,000 comets as they've
flown past the sun.
Most of these comets are so-called sungrazers, relatively tiny comets
whose orbits bring them so near the sun that they are often vaporized
within hours of discovery.
The sun-watching telescope usually picks up one sungrazer every few
days. But between December 13 and 22, SOHO saw more than two dozen
sungrazers appear and disintegrate.
Seeing "25 comets in just ten days, that's unprecedented," Karl
Battams, of the United States Naval Research Laboratory in Washington,
D.C., said in a statement. "It was crazy!"
According to Battams and colleagues, the comet swarm could be
forerunner fragments from a much larger parent comet that may be
headed along a similar path. And such a large icy body coming so near
the sun would result in a spectacular sky show.[/quote]
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/01/110117-comets-storm-sun-soho-nasa-sungrazing-science-space/

It's interesting this prediction of the SOHO scientists appears to be
confirmed by the discovery of the sungrazing Comet ISON in September,
2012, expected to be one of the brightest comets in history

In any case an increase of sun grazers could also correspond to an
increase in close flybys of comets by the terrestrial planets. A
problem though is this increase could itself be due to a disruption of
the comets in the Oort Cloud.

Bob Clark

[Jeff Findley]

In article <13a4ac54-a680-4968-a329-b355aeed1357
@k4g2000yqn.googlegroups.com>, hal...@aol.com says...

>
> perhaps this area of space has more debris, or something unknown is
> distorting their orbits?

Unsupported assertion. But then, that's your favorite kind of
assertion.

Jeff
--
"the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would
magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper
than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in
and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer

[Brad Guth]

As the considerable mass of those Sirius stars and their extensive
Oort cloud closes in, we're in for an ever increasing cosmic show of
force, as well as contributions from this other Oort cloud.

Those Sirius stars used to be worth 12.5 Ms, unless there was once a
third one.

[Robert Clark]

Last weekends meteor over the east coast U.S. was not uncommon
according to NASA:

Boulder-Size Asteroid Caused Friday's East Coast Meteor, NASA Says.
By Mike Wall | SPACE.com – Sat, Mar 23, 2013
[url]http://news.yahoo.com/boulder-size-asteroid-caused-fridays-east-
coast-meteor-194918370.html[/url]

It's estimated about 100 of these meter-sized boulders hit the
Earth's atmosphere every year; this one was uncommon in being over a
heavily populated area. The fireball over the Bay Area in California
in February also was not an uncommonly large one.
However, there may be a characteristic of the east coast meteor that
is uncommon, and that is its speed. It's been estimated to have been
traveling at perhaps 20 miles per second:

Fiery meteor streaks across Massachusetts’ night sky, seen up and down
the East Coast
03/22/2013 11:58 PM
[Quote]
“This is not nearly as big as [Russia’s meteor], not in a long shot,”
said Beatty. “There’s a hundred tons of meteorite that hit the Earth’s
atmosphere every day. [This] was a large-ish object that may have been
the size of about a washing machine, approximately.”
Beatty said the object hit the planet’s atmosphere traveling northwest
to southeast at an estimated 20 miles-per-second, but it could have
been anywhere from 15 to 50 miles-per-second.[/quote]
http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/2013/03/22/fiery-meteor-streaks-across-massachusetts-night-sky-seen-and-down-the-east-coast/jYTaZUlkOhf4tK4UkiS8hO/story.html

East coast residents marvel at Friday night meteor.
Mar 23, 2013 5:32 PM EDT Updated: Mar 23, 2013 6:03 PM EDT
[Quote]
Beatty tells FOX 25 Friday night's meteor was traveling at a speed
equivalent to traveling from Boston to New York in about 10 seconds.[/
quote]
http://www.myfoxboston.com/story/21776174/2013/03/23/east-coast-residents-marvel-at-meteor#ixzz2Og4hz4VH

The distance from Boston to New York is 190 miles. The meteor was
seen from Boston to New York. Then fixing the time by video cameras
when it appeared over Boston compared to New York would give us an
accurate idea of its speed.

IF it really was traveling at 20 miles per second then that would put
it in an unusual category since that would put it at the highest speed
ever measured for a meteor:

64,000 mph asteroid was fastest on record.
By Brian Dodson
December 30, 2012
[quote]
At about 14:51 GMT on April 22, 2012, a fireball was seen throughout
the western United States, accompanied by a loud booming sound heard
over much of California's Sierra Nevada mountains around Lake Tahoe.
Scientists have now carried out a thorough analysis of the meteorite
and found that it was the fastest meteor ever recorded at 28.6 km/s
(64000 mph).[/quote]
http://www.gizmag.com/sutters-hill-meteor-fastest-kiloton-radar/25552/

Sutter’s Mill Meteor Fastest, Most Diverse Ever.
December 21, 2012 at 04:57 Merryl Azriel
[url]http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/12/21/sutters-mill-meteor-
fastest/[/url]

A speed of 20 miles per second for the east coast meteor would put it
slightly ahead of the Sutter's Mill meteor which was at 64,000 mph,
17.8 miles per second.

NASA is putting up a list of bolides, fireballs on its NEO web page:

Fireball and Bolide Reports.
[url]http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/[/url]

So far it only has the the Chelyabinsk meteor on the list. I think it
should also include meteors of size as the east coast and Bay Area
meteors, even if ones this size occur a hundred times a year. Such
events may still have unusual characteristics that would be uncovered
by open dissemination of their physical aspects.

The American Meteor Society has released an analysis of the number of
reports made to them by the public of fireballs over the last few
years. They conclude that while there has been a definite increase,
because of the increasing awareness and the technical tools to report
such events, no conclusion can be made about whether this represents a
real increase in the number of events:

Fireball Tracking System Analysis.
Analysis of the AMS Citizen Science Based Fireball Tracking System.
[url]http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs/fireball-tracking-system-
analysis/[/url]


Bob Clark

[bob haller]

On Mar 27, 1:17 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Last weekends meteor over the east coast U.S. was not uncommon
> according to NASA:
>
> Boulder-Size Asteroid Caused Friday's East Coast Meteor, NASA Says.
> By Mike Wall | SPACE.com – Sat, Mar 23, 2013
> [url]http://news.yahoo.com/boulder-size-asteroid-caused-fridays-east-
> coast-meteor-194918370.html[/url]
>
>  It's estimated about 100 of these meter-sized boulders hit the
> Earth's atmosphere every year;  this one was uncommon in being over a
> heavily populated area. The fireball over the Bay Area in California
> in February also was not an uncommonly large one.
>  However, there may be a characteristic of the east coast meteor that
> is uncommon, and that is its speed. It's been estimated to have been
> traveling at perhaps 20 miles per second:
>
> Fiery meteor streaks across Massachusetts’ night sky, seen up and down
> the East Coast
> 03/22/2013 11:58 PM
> [Quote]
> “This is not nearly as big as [Russia’s meteor], not in a long shot,”
> said Beatty. “There’s a hundred tons of meteorite that hit the Earth’s
> atmosphere every day. [This] was a large-ish object that may have been
> the size of about a washing machine, approximately.”
> Beatty said the object hit the planet’s atmosphere traveling northwest
> to southeast at an estimated 20 miles-per-second, but it could have

> been anywhere from 15 to 50 miles-per-second.[/quote]http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/2013/03/22/fiery-meteor-streaks-acros...

>
> East coast residents marvel at Friday night meteor.
> Mar 23, 2013 5:32 PM EDT Updated: Mar 23, 2013 6:03 PM EDT
> [Quote]
> Beatty tells FOX 25 Friday night's meteor was traveling at a speed
> equivalent to traveling from Boston to New York in about 10 seconds.[/

> quote]http://www.myfoxboston.com/story/21776174/2013/03/23/east-coast-resid...

Norad tacks stuff like this, it would be interesting if they released
just a number of events per year.....

[Brad Guth]

That might suggest our government agencies haven't always been telling
us the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Perhaps making our
oligarchs into unhappy campers is not such a good idea, because the
last time they made 911 happen and otherwise took down the wrong 747.

[Brad Guth]

On Feb 17, 8:26 am, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>  I really don't like coincidences in science. Reports are asteroids
> the size of 2012 DA14  getting this close occur about once in 30
> years. And meteors the size of the Russian one enter our atmosphere
> about similar frequency. But the problem is their both occurring in
> the same 24 hour period. If you imagine the asteroid arriving on a
> particular day, the question to ask is what is the probability of the
> Russian meteor arriving on that same day? Once in 30 years, and then
> 365 days in a year, means the chance of this happening is like 1 in
> 10,000. That's disturbingly unlikely.
> On the other hand if this really is just coincidence, then it should
> be kept in mind that chances this low have been quoted in regards to
> large asteroids impacting Earth in our lifetime.
>
> Bob Clark

Thanks to Google NOVA, we learn what it was and kinda where it came
from, and as it turns out there was no recent asteroid coincidence,
other than our Oort cloud and the merging Sirius Oort cloud will each
deliver millions of significant asteroids as potential NEOs in
addition to all the thousands of local asteroid belt items that can be
easily disrupted enough to head directly towards us, as well as making
any 19+ meter rock of 10,000+ tonnes seem relatively small by
comparison of what's actually out there and having our name on it.

Getting the USAF or any other military agency to share public funded
science with our mostly civilian NASA probably isn't going to happen,
at least not within our generation nor the next dozen that are
national and personal debt screwed to the tune of 18+ trillion anyway.

Thanks to our NASA/Apollo era of double/triple agents getting away
with all sorts of mutually perpetrated cold-war cloak and dagger plus
Paperclip Nazi stuff, is why any cross-agency collaboration simply
isn't going to happen unless there's significant job security or some
other military industrial complex benefits besides doing what's
right. Of course protecting our own butts is going to benefit others,
which should seriously piss off the oligarchs to no end.

This (EC 2013) is simply yet another “I told you so”.

It’s certainly heating up, as one by one we get to play dodge asteroid
and otherwise prey a lot. Almost daily we get another undiscovered
asteroid sneaking past our radars as it passes inside of our moon’s
orbit, and it’ll be those of retrograde added velocity that’ll always
impose the greatest sneak attack threat.

2013 EC as yet another 19+ meter killer asteroid that could have been
headed directly for us. For all we know, as the Sirius Oort cloud
closes in, we’re in for a gauntlet of even bigger surprises unless
those observations pick up and our long-range radars are never turned
off.

Too bad our spendy JWST still can’t be counted on, because the Sirius
Oort cloud that has lots to offer is going to keep us wondering,
what’s next. At least once we’ve tunneled ourselves deep into our
physically dark and extremely tough moon, we’ll be safe from all but
the most planet killer asteroids or planetoids headed our way via
Sirius that released all sorts of big stuff.

This is simply becoming yet another “I told you so”, with an ever
increasing asteroid threat looming and growing by the year. It’s
certainly heating up, as one by one we get to play dodge asteroid.
Perhaps pretty soon it’ll start acting more like Whack-a-Mole. Almost
daily an undiscovered asteroid sneaks past our radars as it passes
inside of our moon’s orbit (Apollo style), and it’ll be those of
retrograde added velocity that’ll always impose the greatest threat.
Fortunately, most will be of less than 10 meters and for the most part
harmlessly self-destruct before reaching the ground.

Conservatively those Sirius Oort clouds could easily represent a
million fold the mass of our Oort cloud, especially with the tidal
loss of its planets and asteroid belts, not to mention its enormous
Oort cloud radius that’s well populated.

2013-EC as simply yet another 19 meter killer asteroid that could have
just as easily been headed directly for us. For all we know, as the
Sirius Oort cloud closes in, we’re in for quite a busy gauntlet of
even bigger surprises, unless our observations pick up and our long
range radars are never turned off.

Too bad our spendy JWST can’t be counted on for spotting those IR cool
asteroids, because the Sirius Oort cloud that has lots to offer is
going to keep us on our toes and wondering, what’s next. At least once
we’ve tunneled ourselves sufficiently deep into our moon, we’ll be
relatively safe from all but the most planet killer asteroids or
planetoids headed our way via those Sirius stars closing in at 7.6 km/
sec plus whatever proper motions of orbital velocity differentials
that can easily add up to 60+ km/sec.

The real coincidence we can all identify with is how such a lethal
threat is handed off to us by our peers, as yet another no big deal
because it missed us, and obviously we really don’t care about
Russians or any other nation that’s put at risk. Google-NOVA was
attempting to point this out, but even they have higher authority to
obey, so they can only go so far within the context of their televised
infomercial, whereas naming names and finger pointing isn’t allowed.

[Robert Clark]

On Mar 27, 1:17 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Last weekends meteor over the east coast U.S. was not uncommon
> according to NASA:
>
> Boulder-Size Asteroid Caused Friday's East Coast Meteor, NASA Says.
> By Mike Wall | SPACE.com – Sat, Mar 23, 2013
> [url]http://news.yahoo.com/boulder-size-asteroid-caused-fridays-east-
> coast-meteor-194918370.html[/url]
>
>  It's estimated about 100 of these meter-sized boulders hit the
> Earth's atmosphere every year;  this one was uncommon in being over a

> heavily populated area. Thefireballover the Bay Area in California

> in February also was not an uncommonly large one.
>  However, there may be a characteristic of the east coast meteor that
> is uncommon, and that is its speed. It's been estimated to have been
> traveling at perhaps 20 miles per second:
>
> Fiery meteor streaks across Massachusetts’ night sky, seen up and down
> the East Coast
> 03/22/2013 11:58 PM
> [Quote]
> “This is not nearly as big as [Russia’s meteor], not in a long shot,”
> said Beatty. “There’s a hundred tons of meteorite that hit the Earth’s
> atmosphere every day. [This] was a large-ish object that may have been
> the size of about a washing machine, approximately.”
> Beatty said the object hit the planet’s atmosphere traveling northwest
> to southeast at an estimated 20 miles-per-second, but it could have

> been anywhere from 15 to 50 miles-per-second.[/quote]http://www.boston.com/metrodesk/2013/03/22/fiery-meteor-streaks-acros...

>
> East coast residents marvel at Friday night meteor.
> Mar 23, 2013 5:32 PM EDT Updated: Mar 23, 2013 6:03 PM EDT
> [Quote]
> Beatty tells FOX 25 Friday night's meteor was traveling at a speed
> equivalent to traveling from Boston to New York in about 10 seconds.[/

> quote]http://www.myfoxboston.com/story/21776174/2013/03/23/east-coast-resid...

>
>  The distance from Boston to New York is 190 miles. The meteor was
> seen from Boston to New York. Then fixing the time by video cameras
> when it appeared over Boston compared to New York would give us an
> accurate idea of its speed.
>
>  IF it really was traveling at 20 miles per second then that would put
> it in an unusual category since that would put it at the highest speed
> ever measured for a meteor:
>
> 64,000 mph asteroid was fastest on record.
> By Brian Dodson
> December 30, 2012
> [quote]

> At about 14:51 GMT on April 22, 2012, afireballwas seen throughout

> the western United States, accompanied by a loud booming sound heard
> over much of California's Sierra Nevada mountains around Lake Tahoe.
> Scientists have now carried out a thorough analysis of the meteorite
> and found that it was the fastest meteor ever recorded at 28.6 km/s
> (64000 mph).[/quote]http://www.gizmag.com/sutters-hill-meteor-fastest-kiloton-radar/25552/
>
> Sutter’s Mill Meteor Fastest, Most Diverse Ever.
> December 21, 2012 at 04:57   Merryl Azriel
> [url]http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/12/21/sutters-mill-meteor-
> fastest/[/url]
>
>  A speed of 20 miles per second for the east coast meteor would put it
> slightly ahead of the Sutter's Mill meteor which was at 64,000 mph,
> 17.8 miles per second.
>
>  NASA is putting up a list of bolides, fireballs on its NEO web page:
>

> Fireballand Bolide Reports.

> [url]http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/[/url]
>
>  So far it only has the the Chelyabinsk meteor on the list. I think it
> should also include meteors of size as the east coast and Bay Area
> meteors, even if ones this size occur a hundred times a year. Such
> events may still have unusual characteristics that would be uncovered
> by open dissemination of their physical aspects.
>
>  The American Meteor Society has released an analysis of the number of
> reports made to them by the public of fireballs over the last few
> years. They conclude that while there has been a definite increase,
> because of the increasing awareness and the technical tools to report
> such events, no conclusion can be made about whether this represents a
> real increase in the number of events:
>

> FireballTracking System Analysis.
> Analysis of the AMS Citizen Science BasedFireballTracking System.

> [url]http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs/fireball-tracking-system-
> analysis/[/url]
>
>   BobClark

A program to detect meteor impacts on the Moon saw its largest one
in its eight year history on March 17th:

ScienceCasts: Bright Explosion on the Moon.
Published on May 16, 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYloGuUZCFM&

The video mentions there were some bright fireballs over Earth the
same day so the events are believed related.
This was 5 days before the east coast fireball and such fireball
events occur on average twice a week somewhere on Earth, so they are
not necessarily connected. Still it is notable this March 17th impact
on the Moon was the brightest one they've seen in eight years.

Bob Clark

[Robert Clark]

"Robert Clark" <rgrego...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:ac10fc90-14af-457b...@a8g2000yqp.googlegroups.com...

> ...

>
> NASA is putting up a list of bolides, fireballs on its NEO web page:
>
> Fireballand Bolide Reports.
> [url]http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/[/url]
>
> So far it only has the the Chelyabinsk meteor on the list. I think it
> should also include meteors of size as the east coast and Bay Area
> meteors, even if ones this size occur a hundred times a year. Such
> events may still have unusual characteristics that would be uncovered
> by open dissemination of their physical aspects.
>
> The American Meteor Society has released an analysis of the number of
> reports made to them by the public of fireballs over the last few
> years. They conclude that while there has been a definite increase,
> because of the increasing awareness and the technical tools to report
> such events, no conclusion can be made about whether this represents a
> real increase in the number of events:
>
> FireballTracking System Analysis.
> Analysis of the AMS Citizen Science BasedFireballTracking System.
> [url]http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireballs/fireball-tracking-system-
> analysis/[/url]
>

Meteor Sparks Incredible Fireball Over US Midwest (Video).
By Miriam Kramer, Staff Writer | September 30, 2013 03:18pm ET
<Quote>
"This was a very bright event," Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment
Office told Spaceweather.com. "Flares saturated our meteor cameras, and made
determination of the end point (the terminus of the fireball's flight
through the atmosphere) virtually impossible. Judging from the brightness,
we are dealing with a meter class object."</quote>
http://www.space.com/23001-meteor-fireball-ohio-video.html


By Deborah Byrd in
BLOGS | EARTH | HUMAN WORLD on Sep 28, 2013
U.S. sees another bright fireball on September 27.
<Quote>
September 2013 has been busy for sightings of bright fireballs. The one at
11:33 p.m. local time on September 27 was the 14th fireball sighting in the
U.S. in September.
The American Meteor Society (AMS) has reported at least 373 reports of
another bright fireball – a very bright meteor, likely a small chunk of
natural incoming space debris – over the U.S. last night (September 27,
2013). These reports followed a similar event over approximately the same
area the day before (September 26). The AMS called the coincidence of two
bright fireballs, or bright meteors, spotted over approximately the same
region on consecutive days "surprising." Witnesses from Georgia, Illinois,
Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia reported a bright light
moving across the night sky on September 27 at around 11:33 p.m. local time,
according to the AMS.
Fireball might sound ominous, but it is just the word astronomers use to
mean bright meteor. As seen from a whole-Earth perspective, fireballs are
seen often. It’s unusual to have two appear on consecutive nights over the
same region, however.
September 2013 has been a busy month for sightings of bright meteors,
according to the AMS. Last night’s event marks the 14th fireball sighting
with at least 25 witnesses in September, the most ever since the AMS started
recording sightings online, they say.</quote>
http://earthsky.org/earth/u-s-midwest-sees-another-bright-fireball


The coincidences keep building and building ...


Bob Clark


--
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com

[David Staup]

On 2/28/2013 1:43 PM, Brad Guth wrote:
> On Feb 28, 11:38 am, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> On Feb 27, 1:33 pm, j...@specsol.spam.sux.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> In sci.physics Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>>> That video I linked to previously and ones like it may also be able
>>>> to address this question:
>>
>>>> An Asteroid's Parting Shot.
>>>> By Phil Plait
>>>> Posted Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, at 8:00 AM
>>>> http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/02/19/near_earth_astero...
>>
>>>> The video shows 2012 DA14 slowing moving through the frame, and
>>>> meteors and artificial satellites streaking rapidly through the frame.
>>>> Assuming we are able to distinguish the satellites, perhaps by
>>>> knowing already their positions, perhaps we can determine if the
>>>> number of meteors shown here are higher than normal.
>>>> Better would be longer exposures that include at least the time
>>>> period of the Russian meteor impact.
>>
>>>> Bob Clark
>>
>>> While people here have been speculating all sorts of nonsense, astronomers
>>> from the University of Antioquia in Medellin, Colombia have figured out
>>> where the Russian meteor came from and that it has no relationship to
>>> the other close passing asteroid.
>>
>>> http://www.space.com/19974-russian-meteor-explosion-origin-size.html
>>
>> The Fireballs of February.
>> Feb. 22, 2012
>> ...
>> "They all hail from the asteroid belt—but not from a single location
>> in the asteroid belt," he says. "There is no common source for these
>> fireballs, which is puzzling."
>> "This isn't the first time sky watchers have noticed odd fireballs in
>> February. In fact, the "Fireballs of February" are a bit of a legend
>> in meteor circles.
>> "Brown explains: "Back in the 1960s and 70s, amateur astronomers
>> noticed an increase in the number of bright, sound-producing deep-
>> penetrating fireballs during the month of February. The numbers seemed
>> significant, especially when you consider that there are few people
>> outside at night in winter. Follow-up studies in the late 1980s
>> suggested no big increase in the rate of February fireballs.
>> Nevertheless, we've always wondered if something was going on."
>> "Indeed, a 1990 study by astronomer Ian Holliday suggests that the
>> 'February Fireballs' are real. He analyzed photographic records of
>> about a thousand fireballs from the 1970s and 80s and found evidence
>> for a fireball stream intersecting Earth's orbit in February. He also
>> found signs of fireball streams in late summer and fall. The results
>> are controversial, however. Even Halliday recognized some big
>> statistical uncertainties in his results."
>> ...http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/22feb_febru...
>>
>> Note this was from last year, not this year in regard to this
>> February's unusual meteor and asteroid encounters. But what's key is
>> the article notes this has been noticed in other February's.
>> The article suggests greater number of fireballs in February. It also
>> mentions they are typically slow, long-lasting, and penetrate deep in
>> the atmosphere. I don't know about the slow part, but the long-lasting
>> and deep penetration aspects could be due to larger meteors during
>> February's.

>> If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
>> it has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
>> fireballs are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
>> last year in February also during a close approach.

>> Also notable as Steve Willner mentioned the two orbital crossings
>> could result in rather close approaches on the second crossing as
>> well:

>>
>> On Feb 26, 1:56 pm, will...@cfa.harvard.edu (Steve Willner) wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> ...
>>

>>>> Does this mean there are two close approaches per orbit? It doesn't
>>>> necessarily have to be since where the two orbits "cross" does not
>>>> mean the two bodies have to be there at the same time.
>>
>>> Yes, exactly. Typically one body will be far away when the other is
>>> near a crossing point.
>>
>>>> if they are close at one "crossing" point, they should be
>>>> relatively close at the other.
>>
>>> About half a day away at the next crossing point, given the period of
>>> 366.24 days. That's about 400 Earth radii if I've done the
>>> arithmetic right. The distance is cumulative, so a simple estimate
>>> is that it will take another 366 years (365 orbits for the asteroid)
>>> before there's another close approach. However, the recent Earth
>>> encounter must have changed the orbit, so the simple estimate is
>>> probably wrong. There are also likely to be non-gravitational
>>> effects. This object is probably not one to worry about in the near
>>> term, but this sort of rough estimate is no substitute for a proper
>>> orbit calculation.
>>
>> This could explain the observation of Halliday that there seems to be
>> a statistical increase also in late Summer and Fall.

>>
>> In any case, the Air Force needs to release its satellite detections
>> of these fireballs. For one thing they might be able to detect the
>> meteors before they have any appreciable interaction with the
>> atmosphere. For large meteors, of oblong shape, the atmospheric
>> interaction could alter their direction, thus giving a misleading
>> interpretation of their original orbits.
>>

>> For many people the Air Force not sharing all the technical means at

>> its disposal led to the loss of the shuttle Columbia crew. It must not

>> be said that its keeping its meteor detections capability secret led
>> to the loss of an entire city.
>>
>> Bob Clark
>

> Since when do mainstream oligarchs care about the rest of us?
>


Yo goofy

NO ONE here is going to respond to your silliness

everyone knows about GUTH VENUS


LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[Mike Collins]

Have you been composing this reply since February?

[David Staup]

oooo another idiot

snicker

liberal idiot to boot

that's 2 strikes

[Mike Collins]

You made a pathetic reply to an even more pathetic post which Brad Guth
made in February.
How is this a triumph?
And I'm not a liberal I'm a socialist.

[Sjouke Burry]

On 05.10.13 0:26, Mike Collins wrote:
> David Staup<dst...@charter.net> wrote:

Big cut

> And I'm not a liberal I'm a socialist.

Relax... we all make misguided choices......

[Robert Clark]

"Robert Clark" <rgrego...@yaSPAMBLOCKhoo.com> wrote in message
news:l2jk18$pu$8...@dont-email.me...

> "Robert Clark" <rgrego...@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:ac10fc90-14af-457b...@a8g2000yqp.googlegroups.com...
> On Mar 27, 1:17 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> Last weekends meteor over the east coast U.S. was not uncommon
>> according to NASA:
>>
>> Boulder-Size Asteroid Caused Friday's East Coast Meteor, NASA Says.

>> By Mike Wall | SPACE.com - Sat, Mar 23, 2013

> another bright fireball - a very bright meteor, likely a small chunk of
> natural incoming space debris - over the U.S. last night (September 27,

> 2013). These reports followed a similar event over approximately the same
> area the day before (September 26). The AMS called the coincidence of two
> bright fireballs, or bright meteors, spotted over approximately the same
> region on consecutive days "surprising." Witnesses from Georgia, Illinois,
> Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
> Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia reported a bright light
> moving across the night sky on September 27 at around 11:33 p.m. local
> time, according to the AMS.
> Fireball might sound ominous, but it is just the word astronomers use to
> mean bright meteor. As seen from a whole-Earth perspective, fireballs are
> seen often. It's unusual to have two appear on consecutive nights over the
> same region, however.
> September 2013 has been a busy month for sightings of bright meteors,
> according to the AMS. Last night's event marks the 14th fireball sighting
> with at least 25 witnesses in September, the most ever since the AMS
> started recording sightings online, they say.</quote>
> http://earthsky.org/earth/u-s-midwest-sees-another-bright-fireball
>
>
> The coincidences keep building and building ...
>

Russian Meteor Explosion Might Mean Earth Gets Hit More Often Than We
Think - Wired Science.
BY ADAM MANN 10.07.13 9:30 AM
<Quote>
The latest analysis of the bollide that burst over Chelyabinsk, Russia in
February suggests that the risk from such airbursts - which occur when
friction in our atmosphere heats up a meteor - may be greater than
previously thought.<Quote>
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/10/chelyabinsk-frequent-impact/

Whether it's that impacts of such large bolides occur more frequently than
we thought or if there is an unusual increase just recently, both
possibilities are worrisome.

[Robert Clark]

"Robert Clark" <rgrego...@yaSPAMBLOCKhoo.com> wrote in message

news:l3hmfc$aei$9...@dont-email.me...
>> ...

Meteor in Chelyabinsk impact was twice as heavy as initially thought.
Quirin Schiermeier
06 November 2013
[quote]The asteroid that exploded on 15 February this year near the city of
Chelyabinsk in the Urals region of Russia was the largest to crash to Earth
since 1908, when an object hit Tunguska in Siberia. Using video recordings
of the event, scientists have now reconstructed the asteroid's properties
and its trajectory through Earth's atmosphere. The risk of similar objects
hitting our planet may be ten times larger than previously thought, they now
warn.
[url]http://www.nature.com/news/risk-of-massive-asteroid-strike-underestimated-1.14114[/url][/quote]

DEVASTATING Chelyabinsk METEOR STRIKES: '7x as likely' as thought.
NASA's checked its space rock maths and it's not good news
By Iain Thomson, 6th November 2013
[quote]NASA has revealed new research on the Chelyabinsk meteorite that
exploded over Russia in February, and the findings aren't good: not only
does it look like the astronomic models about the number of similar-sized
things reaching Earth are wrong, but also the damage they can do is much
greater than expected.
"If you look at the number of impacts detected by US government sensors over
the past few decades you find the impact rate of kiloton-class objects is
greater than would be indicated by the telescopic surveys," said Bill Cooke,
meteoroid environment office lead at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center at
a press conference on Wednesday.
[url]http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/11/06/chelyabinsksized_meteors_impacts_seven_times_more_common_than_first_thought/[/url][/quote]

[Robert Clark]

There was another close asteroid flyby last week:

Asteroid the size of a house to pass ‘close’ to Earth, Nasa says.
The space object is the same size as the one that exploded over Russia in
2013.
ADAM WITHNALL Author Biography Sunday 07 September 2014
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/asteroid-the-size-of-a-house-to-pass-close-to-earth-nasa-says-9716847.html

There was a fireball over Spain the next day. The Spain fireball is referred
to as a "super bolide" here:

Spain Super Bolide 08SEP2014
Barcelona, Spain Super Bolide 0655 am 08SEP2014
Meteorites likely produced!
http://lunarmeteorit...-08sep2014.html

In the second video on this page it looks really huge. Anyone see any
estimates on its size?
I'm in the distinct minority in still thinking there is a connection between
asteroid close approaches and meteorite fireballs, like in the Russian
meteorite case and in this Spanish case.

Bob Clark

------------------------------------------------------------------

Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com

------------------------------------------------------------------
==============================================================

"Robert Clark" wrote in message news:l5g5od$ep1$9...@dont-email.me...

==============================================================

[Robert Clark]

Just because we don't understand how there can be a connection between two
events does not mean there can not be one. The conclusion that the events
were connected was based on the unlikelihood of their occurring in close
proximity in time. IF it continues to happen that close flybys are
accompanied by large meteorite fireballs then that would lead to a search
for a mechanism to explain how they could be related despite their appearing
from different directions in space.

Bob Clark


------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-stage-to-orbit was already shown possible 50 years ago
with the Titan II first stage.
In fact, contrary to popular belief SSTO's are actually easy.
Just use the most efficient engines and stages at the same time,
and the result will automatically be SSTO.
Blog: Http://Exoscientist.blogspot.com
------------------------------------------------------------------

"Chris L Peterson" wrote in message
news:v16b1a195h8ktgp7e...@4ax.com...

On Sat, 13 Sep 2014 14:01:14 -0400, "Robert Clark"
<rgrego...@gmSPAMBLOCKail.com> wrote:

>I'm in the distinct minority in still thinking there is a connection
>between
>asteroid close approaches and meteorite fireballs, like in the Russian
>meteorite case and in this Spanish case.

In neither case was there any connection between meteors and large
asteroids observed near Earth. This is 100% certain, as the orbits are
known.

[Poutnik]

Dne 14.9.2014 v 16:25 Robert Clark napsal(a):

> Just because we don't understand how there can be a connection between
> two events does not mean there can not be one. The conclusion that the
> events were connected was based on the unlikelihood of their occurring
> in close proximity in time. IF it continues to happen that close flybys
> are accompanied by large meteorite fireballs then that would lead to a
> search for a mechanism to explain how they could be related despite
> their appearing from different directions in space.
>
>
> Bob Clark
>

If they shared the similar orbit characteristics, than they were very
probably related.

As is is very common small objects progresively desintegrates
creating debris. Many meteoroids are some debris of larger comets,
following their orbits.

If they do not share them, they were not.

--
Poutnik