On Oct 30, 6:18�pm, "Robert L. Oldershaw" <
rlolders...@amherst.edu>
wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 30, 2012 5:42:41 PM UTC-4, Martin Hardcastle wrote:
> > In article <
mt2.0-9205-1351613...@hydra.herts.ac.uk>,
>
> > Yes: three. Firstly, a population of compact objects as the major
>
> > explanation for the dark matter is ruled out by microlensing
>
> > observations, as you know very well. Second, the luminosities you
>
> > 'predict' -- and I use the scare-quotes because you have not told us
>
> > how you do this calculation --
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------
>
> 1. I believe that the conclusions you draw from existing microlensing results pertaining to stellar-mass objects are premature and far more uncertain than you claim.
>
> You probably would have also summarily ruled out trillions of planetary-mass microlenses until Sumi et al apparently discovered them in 2011.
The OGLE {1,2,3} results are pretty straight forward. The dominant
fraction of dark matter cannot be these objects. This does in no way
contradict the Sumi, et al, results. You know this because you have
been given the results from the various microlensing collaborations
over and over and over and over and over and over and you have no
technical argument beyond "BUT MIKE HAWKINS SAYS...."
Further, you have forgotten your own thoughts on the Sumi, et al
results. What happened to the caution about how the the microlensing
events were being extrapolated from a star forming region out over the
entire volume of the galaxy?
>
> As I have pointed out numerous times here: (a) the existing microlensing interpretations are highly model-dependent, and others like Hawkins make a viable case for the type of population I have predicted.
Robert, the technical criticisms of Hawkins' work are legion in both
the published literature and on this newsgroup. You need to do more
than say "BUT MIKE HAWKINS SAYS..." because if that's your only
foothold in reality you are in deep trouble.
I have personally posted the criticisms repeatedly in the past but you
ignored the criticisms and refused to engage.
Let's go to your comments:
1) "the existing microlensing interpretations are highly model-
dependent"
What models would those be?
Can you name them?
Can you explain what issues you have with the models?
What are the crucial parameters and assumptions of the model?
Can you give us some literature references to these models?
I'm rather curious because the last time I read the literature on the
subject, the results were pretty model-agnostic because the only thing
the microlensing collaborations are measuring is the optical depth of
the LMC. Do you have an issue with how events are identified as self-
lensing?
2) "others like Hawkins make a viable case for the type of population
I have predicted."
Hawkins' work is not taken seriously by the community at large, has
major technical flaws, and you've never cited anyone else.
You use Mike Hawkins as a lifeline. Not once have I ever seen you do a
deep dive into his work and justify it to anyone. Not once.
>
> You look at one set of negative data and interpretations, and I emphasize another set that is more positive.
What on Earth do you think you are talking about?
The MOA group observations you love to cite happen to have two issues
you do not discuss:
1) They are consistent with all the falsifying datasets I have ever
given you. Just because you've never once read the literature I have
cited you does not mean it is wrong.
2) They did not find your objects. ~ 1 M_sun objects have a far, far
larger signature than ~planet massed objects yet none of the
ultracompacts were found.
I, of course, would be happy to engage in a technical discussion on
this. Are you?
>
> This will eventually be resolved empirically, and not by anyone merely saying it has been resolved, no matter how loudly or often.
>
> 2. My X-ray luminosity predictions are based on the work of Hegyi, Kolb and Olive ["Black holes and local dark matter", ApJ 300(2), 492-495, 1986]. I'll stick with their analyses for the disk and halo until someone convinces me that better estimates are now available.
"...until someone convinces me" should be a warning flag to everyone.
>
> 3. Obviously, the total X-ray lunimosity of galaxies is not due entirely to my predicted populations, and I specifically mentioned this in my last post, as if it is even necessary! It is the unidentified and mis-identified X-ray components, and I include here the one they always chalk up to cataclysmic variables when all else fails, that might be produced by the predicted stellar-mass black holes.
>
> At any rate, it is abundantly clear that until microlensing research produces further breakthroughs like the Sumi et al results, or until NuSTAR discovers that there are FAR more black holes in our galaxy than people generally assume, it is a waste of time asking people to consider stellar-mass black holes as a viable dark matter candidate. They appear to be married to no-show WIMPs. Good luck with that!
The previous years of microlensing work is dismissed because it
doesn't produce the answer you want. You refuse to partake in a
meaningful discussion of the results you ignore.
The previous years of X-ray observations by more sensitive telescopes
is dismissed because it doesn't produce the answer you want. You
refuse to partake in a meaningful discussion of the results you
ignore.
Please stop acting like this in public. It diminishes you.