1989 and 2011: Compare and Contrast / The Arab Counterrevolution

[Reflection Cafe]

How does a revolution travel? Is geography a factor? Or culture? Why is the bug so virulent in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria, but largely dormant in Morocco and Jordan?

The explanation clearly needs to be looked for in what the countries in question had in common rather than in the differences between them.

http://www.reflectioncafe.net/2011/09/1989-and-2011-compare-and-contrast.html

The Arab world’s immediate future will very likely unfold in a complex tussle between the army, remnants of old regimes, and the Islamists, all of them with roots, resources, as well as the ability and willpower to shape events. Regional parties will have influence and international powers will not refrain from involvement. There are many possible outcomes—from restoration of the old order to military takeover, from unruly fragmentation and civil war to creeping Islamization. But the result that many outsiders had hoped for—a victory by the original protesters—is almost certainly foreclosed.

http://www.reflectioncafe.net/2011/09/arab-counterrevolution.html