Hey Brian, no UK election polls?

[The Iceberg]

How come you haven't posted any UK election polls? It all happens tomorrow, is it cos Trump
Isn't in them or something? I wanna know what they are saying!

[Brian Lawrence]

On 07/06/2017 18:44, The Iceberg wrote:

> How come you haven't posted any UK election polls? It all happens tomorrow, is it cos Trump
> Isn't in them or something? I wanna know what they are saying!

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017>

The Conservative lead since Sunday averages 7.3%.

This a pretty good prediction:
<http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html>

The quick summary of that: Con to gain 31 seats, lose 4; Lab to gain 6,
lose 20; Lib-Dems to lose 5; SNP to lose 7 - all others remain the same.

Total MPs Con 358, Lab 218, L-D 3, SNP 49, PC 3, Green 1 (N.Ireland 18)

CON absolute majority 33, but a bigger working majority than that - some
NIrl MPs support Conservatives, Sinn Fein refuse to take their seats.

Generally most of the pollsters have tended to overestimate the Labour
vote and underestimate the Conservative.

*Incumbent parties tend to lose ground during the campaign, but regain
some of that during the last few days.

The big unknown for pollsters is what Labour and UKIP Remainers do. In
theory many of them might be expected to vote Conservative, but how many
and in which constituencies isn't easy to predict.

Recent activity has seen Labour (Corbyn really) campaigning in safe
Labour seats and Conservative (mostly May) campaigning in seats they
could take from Labour (or SNP). This suggests that Labour have been
trying to ensure a respectable share of the total vote, while Tories
are still aiming to gain seats.

Personally I would not be surprised by an overall Conservative majority
of between 50 & 100.

I didn't post anything on the assumption that not many other posters
have much interest.

[Tim]

. If the young turnout to vote more than they usually do Labour will do
better than expected. I expect a slightly increased Tory majority
though,but very much hope I’m wrong.

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[Brian W Lawrence]

As an afterthought, %age of vote for two main parties in recent elections:

CON-LAB Leaders
===============================
2015 36.9-30.4 Cameron-Milliband
2010 36.1-29.0 Cameron-Brown
2005 32.4-35.2 Blair-Howard
2001 31.7-40.7 Blair-Hague

Conservative share in polls published since Sunday is between 41 & 46%
(excluding the Qruisly/Wired poll, which is not a conventional poll).

Labour between 33 & 41%

The Conservatives look like getting their biggest share of the vote
since 1992, while Labour could see their biggest since 2001.



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[The Iceberg]

Why would anyone young vote Labour? One of first things they prob remember is that war criminal Bliar illegally invading Iraq.

[*skriptis]

The Iceberg <iceber...@gmail.com> Wrote in message:

> Why would anyone young vote Labour? One of first things they prob remember is that war criminal Bliar illegally invading Iraq.
>

But hasn't Cameron done the same/similar in destroying Libyan
state and helping create hell there and causing all sorts of
problems for Europe with Africans coming in huge numbers, now
that there's no Gaddaffi
to hunt them down and prevent them from
invading Europe?

It was Hillary's thing mainly, and that scumbag Sarkozy was in it,
but Cameroon participated as well.


Is Corbin more Blair than May is Cameroon?

--

[Brian W Lawrence]

On 08/06/2017 13:59, The Iceberg wrote:

> Why would anyone young vote Labour? One of first things they prob remember is that war criminal Bliar illegally invading Iraq.

I'd wager that most young people have no idea who Tony Blair is

[The Doctor]

In article <ohbi9q$ktp$1...@ls237.t-com.hr>,

Corbyn is throwback to Communism.

May is a throwback to Thatcher.
--
Member - Liberal International This is doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca Ici doctor@@nl2k.ab.ca
Yahweh, Queen & country!Never Satan President Republic!Beware AntiChrist rising!
https://www.empire.kred/ROOTNK?t=94a1f39b Look at Psalms 14 and 53 on Atheism
UK Stop Theresa MAy MT V2 and Impotent Corbyn, Vote Farron and LDEm!!

[Carey]

Well... so much for that. ;)


It'll be interesting to watch Treeza Mayhem and Arlene Foster, now [shudders].

[Brian W Lawrence]

On 09/06/2017 16:34, Carey wrote:

> It'll be interesting to watch Treeza Mayhem and Arlene Foster, now [shudders].

It's being reported that the agreement is a 'confidence and supply'
arrangement. In essence the 10 DUP MPs will vote with the government
on motions of confidence/no confidence or supply (budget). MPs can also
abstain instead if they prefer to do that.

Foster may gain some benefits in return for the support, but is not
likely to have much (or any) influence in policy.

In practice the government only needs a couple of DUP votes. The seven
Sinn Fein MPs will not take their seats, and the 4 speakers (the
official speaker has three deputies - two Labour MPs and one
Conservatives - Speaker Bercow is a Conservative MP) only vote from
the Speaker's chair if a motion is tied. This means that there are
a maximum of 639 MPs who can vote, so only 320 votes are needed for
a majority.

[The Iceberg]

If only she was a throw back to Mrs Thatch, but she is nothing like the Great Iron Lady! Mrs Thatch would've had us out of the EUSSR asap instead of all this faffing around + she'd have got a giant majority given the situation and vs Corbyn.

[The Iceberg]

Thanks for the info Brian, knew they didn't really need 326 but nice to know the official stats

[Brian W Lawrence]

On 08/06/2017 13:16, Brian Lawrence wrote:

> The Conservative lead since Sunday averages 7.3%.
>
> This a pretty good prediction:
> <http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html>
>
> The quick summary of that: Con to gain 31 seats, lose 4; Lab to gain 6,
> lose 20; Lib-Dems to lose 5; SNP to lose 7 - all others remain the same.
>
> Total MPs Con 358, Lab 218, L-D 3, SNP 49, PC 3, Green 1 (N.Ireland 18)

That website now has an article that discusses their prediction failure.

<http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html>

Scroll down to "Voters astonish pollsters".

"For yet another time, the pre-election campaign polls contained
considerable error. The final average of the campaign polls showed an
average Conservative lead over Labour of 6.8pc, whereas the actual
difference in vote share was only 2.5pc.

"That gives a poll error of over 4pc, which is only partially better
than the poll error in 2015 of around 6pc."

"The polling data also seems to have confused the attempts to quantify
the effect of the EU referendum. The data suggested that Remain voters
would stick with their 2015 party, but the pattern of seat results
suggest that seats in Remain areas saw significant defections away from
the Conservatives.

"Allowing for both of these problems, the basic model, given the correct
inputs would have predicted the result to within about ten seats. This
is similar model error to that seen in previous years.

"It may be that this year's polling error was the mirror image of 2015.
Last time, the pollsters asked respondents whether or not they intended
to vote, and many young people over-confidently predicted that they
would vote. To compensate, pollsters started disregarding what people
said and used their own models to work out whether someone would vote.
But the younger voters seem to have been so enthused by Jeremy Corbyn's
Labour party that they voted in larger numbers than predicted. Truly
"voters astonish pollsters". And us."

** ** **

It does seem likely that young people voted in larger numbers than in
previous elections, though this hasn't yet been confirmed. One pointer
is the increased turnout compared to the 2015 election. Turnout last
Thursday was 68.7% an increase of 2.3%. I dug out the numbers for
turnout in the separate countries:

England 69.1% +3.2%
Scotland 66.4% -4.7% <-------- !!!
Wales 68.6% +3.0%
N Ireland 65.4% +7.3%

On the face of it, in Scotland many people who voted SNP in 2015 didn't
vote at all this time. SNP share fell by 13.1% while Conservative share
increased by 13.7%. Labour share also increased a little - 2.8%, while
Lib-Dem share fell slightly (by 0.8%), although they did take 3 seats
from the SNP, and were only 3 votes short of taking Fife North East too.

Without a full analysis it looks as though turnout was down in the vast
majority of the 59 Scottish constituencies. Probably all 18 of the
Northern Irish constituencies saw an increased in turnout. There seem to
have been a few of the 40 Welsh seats seeing a reduction. England, with
533 seats have rather more with negative T/O.

The link above also analyses the results using the probably
redistribution in seats due in 2018. The 650 seats will be reduced to
600. With 600 MPs elected any party will need 301 for a majority. The
Conservatives would have won 298, leaving them short by three. Labour
would have won 245.

[Brian W Lawrence]

As soon as I hit send I remembered another observation.

The Conservatives were 8 MPs short of winning a majority. Looking at the
8 seats where Labour candidates defeated Conservative candidates by the
smallest margins, if only around 400 Labour voters had voted
Conservative - in the necessary constituencies - the Tories could have
had a majority.

I think that was true recently in another election :-)

[Pelle Svanslös]

Thanks.