On Tuesday, May 29, 2018 at 4:12:33 AM UTC-7, Manuel aka Xax wrote:
> Le lundi 28 mai 2018 20:42:50 UTC+2, Patrick Kehoe a écrit :
[SNIPPED]
> To me, it was a good tactic for Federer to go for the #1, playing Rotterdam (iirc), not for the bonus week(s?) he added to his legacy, just to open a "new front" vs Rafa...
** I agree... one small tournament and you get back to #1, a no-brainer really...
> I mean, it was clear right after AO that Roger was not likely to schedule more clay tournaments than he did last year :-)
** Right... you don't mess with perfect planning... :)
> Hence, apart from an unexpected poor clay season from Rafa, we all knew it was just a matter of time before Nadal took the spot back, most likely after the French.
** Yes...
> Fed "invited" Rafa to replicate his brilliant 2017 clay season results :-)
> Smart move, given the amount of big tournaments clay season has, esp when compared with grass.
** True...
> > ++ Holding ones confidence and competence for 3+ hours to get the job done... just insanely difficult against Rafa... as we all know... because we haven't seen anyone come up with a sufficiently invasice COUNTER stratedgy against Rafa on clay... OTHER THAN NOLE, no ones been able to put together the game style and keep at it long enough on clay to beat him... amazing!
> You forgot Soderlin ;-)
> Okay, that was just one match.
> Yet their famous Wimbledon match (when Robin mocked Rafa's panties ritual) was tense and very competitive, Robin had got under Rafa' skin before their 2009FO encounter.
** True... though Sods and Rafa was ALL about Sods being able to dictate, defend and counter then take the offense with hammer-blow power-shots and hang in for hours... not a 'formula' as such... not a template... :) Except for Theim; he seems to want to create a mini-Sods template to battle Rafa on clay... :)
> Big hitters often got the upper hand on Nadal, especially tall ones, Robin was able to "do it" on clay, as opposed to everybody else.
** Sods could defend and thus 'absorb' Rafa sufficiently on clay to then actually counter-hit Rafa, which no one could do on the Paris clay... in other words he could translate his power tennis with enough defensive soundness and very formidable 'big-point' conversions to really rough Rafa up... amazingly!
> > ++ Agreed. Hard earned. Taking it on the chin to 'experience' the moment(s) against Rafa on a clay court to try and work out what set of patterns have to be played to get the better of the great man. That's one thing that Nishikori seems destined to bring to the clay court against Rafa; he has some successful patterns but then NOTHING... yes, injuries are his best excuse... but, basically after that near win over Rafa in Rome years ago - NOTHING.
> Good pick Nishi, I had almost forgot how he had Nadal on the ropes once, and was to win, that I got really disappointed by their next matches.
> You put it right: felt like a promise never to be uphold.
> Sadly, injuries didn't explain the outcome of their matches since that "promise".
** No, they don't... but, he's also not had the ability to produce 6 months of consistant big match ball striking in order to peak his ground game, and that's a must going in against Rafa on the clay... groove technically, cardio-peaking fitness capacity, mental resilience all adding up to sustainable confidence to produce a willfull fighting attitude to hang in there and battle Rafa WITH the proper tools for the contest... Nish has all of that BUT CANNOT seem to be able to produce 4 to 6 months of sustained top play to actually make it happen when the spring comes and he inevitably runs into Rafa... sucks he doesn't have the body-type to be able to 'warrior-it-out' against the top guys... he's so talented...
> As perfect as 2017 Federer's schedule was, it was mostly a bet when decision were made, imo.
** Sure. No way Feds expected to win the 2017 AO, but he did and then the calculus totally changed... he didn't even expect to win in Miami (after winning Indian Wells); he said on French Radio that he thought he would be exhaused half way through Miami, but he kept winning and 'not feeling terrible' (my best translation)... I thought that was a telling way of putting it... he EXPECTED to feel waxed in Miami 2017... BUT, then he and Sven and Pierre Paganini (who has become more of a fator in his planning as he's gotten older) decided to try and skip the clay (as we all know) and that was LARGELY based on Pagainin's assessent as to how Federer would hold up in relation to maximizing his Wimdeldon chances... AND BOOM... that worked out too...
> Same about this year, or near the same : with the uncanny bonus of "now every
other player knows that this bet had worked once" :-)
** Yes, there's a kind of 'psychological precident' for his loading up for the grass at the expense of the clay... and Rafa and his team keep to their pattern of planning precisely because they are also STILL winning almost everything on clay, so - for them - the pattern his kept to - it would be IDIOTIC to pass up on all those massive tournament wins... so there's a kind of 'resolution to necessity' each (Feds and Rafa) have selected for themselves... so far, so good, for each... cannot blame them... AND YET THE FIELD and talented elites ARE GAINING!
> Yet, it's way too early for me to speculate about either Roger next Wim or future FO... Even if I agree that Federer might be thinking he can wait for Nadal to get slowed down a bit (or more) by inevitable age toll :-)
** Yes... it's almost beyond probability (or calculable probability) for Federer to 'know' that waiting out Rafa will be ANYTHING LIKE a successful stratedgy... Federer IS AFTER ALL 5 years older and age tends to trump EVERTHING in the high stakes game of career probabilities and maximizing winning outcomes... And (I know I have) predicting Rafa's physical decline has been a fools bet for many years now... even approaching 32 and with cycles of injuries behind him, it's proven problematic, and frankly foolish, predicting just WHEN Rafa's going to start his major DOWN SLIDE preformance/results wise, especially on clay :)
> I also can picture a FO title for Federer, without having to play Nadal (either not there because of injury, or having been ousted by a less dangerous player for Roger than Rafa has always been, thanks to lefty+huge spin)
** Though, Feds would have to give up his current grass stratedgy... I wonder if Federer gets upset this Wimbledon, will he change things up again and go for the French? Or is he actually waiting for Rafa to have some marked slip in over all performance first? Which would be sort of pathetic, really...
> > ++ I am known to have shouted at the television (on many an occassion) that very plee! :)
> I've been DELIGHTED by the way Simone has been playing Rafa so far.
> He went for near every shot, and had Nadal on the ropes more than once.
> He borrowed a good deal from Federer'17 gameplan, and has been able to execute it ON CLAY quite brilliantly: refusing as much as possible to play away from the baseline, hitting flat & fast 1HBH, either to fix Nadal on one side or to kill a rally.
** That sort of power out put tennis seems to be how Theim has decided he's going to face up to Rafa - win or lose... Theim's fit enough and getting mentally tough enough to make a considerable fight against Rafa on clay over 5... IF Theim can get all the way into the last 3 rounds of the tournament... then it's just a matter of producing on 'the day' against Rafa... Theim has enough big match experience and winning sets off of Rafa to FINALLY see if he can measure up... because he's got the big serve, massive forehand, reliable backhand wing to hang in, the fitness and the dawning belief... can he put it all together? That's the last piece of the puzzle...
> Never seemed destroyed by the loss of a set, which is even more remarkable since he was up a break in the second, he could have totally melted in the third, and he did quite the opposite.
> I didn't checked stats, but I would be quite surprised if he had not hit more winners than Nadal so far... ON CLAY !
** He was leading on the stats when I saw them, but didn't see the final results...
> I also bet that Nadal UE are higher than usual, for Bolelli is forcing him to "overplay" (not sure how well that translate from french !) a lot more often that expected when reigning champ is facing any lucky looser.
** Even today, Rafa had more than his usual UE's and that was in a set he won 6-2... Rafa's 'stats' are changing as he gets past 30... even on the clay... but his run-around forehand and court patterning for offensive strikes on clay are still ASTOUNDING good... he seems FULL of energy - positive energy... no one has 'scared' him yet this tournament... nor pushed him toward his limits not even SB...
> > Good takin' Manuel!
> > P
> Thanks, always nice to chat about tennis :-)
> RST "Signal to Noise Ratio" isn't improving, far too often trolling about who's BOAT, GOAT, and other endless and often sterile debates.
** TOO TRUE M!
> You're among the few posters I actually enjoy reading / replying.
> As much as I've been enjoying this tennis era : how not to (?), when 3 of the most successful players ever have been on stage at the same moment, not forgetting the two 3 slams wonders (so far !) that managed to "steal" their well-earned own titles in such a high density field (not only speaking about top 5), as much I regret the days I started reading (and few months later, posting in) RST.
** You and I both... Fed/Rafa/Nole... all legends... producing dizzying tennis and epic matches... and a more than decent revolving, supporting, cast over the years... tennis certainly in a good place but I have SO MANY writing and editing projects on the go, I don't get much time to drop in to RST...
> I'm really fed up with fanboyism, some have even managed to make me starting to "un-like" players I used to like a lot, because of their biased posts.
> Having so many people posting mostly to keep arguing about something also had me missing even more former memebers (Erich, not only for his excellent highlights, Joe and few more that I fail, right now, to remember names.
** Totally agree... Joe Ramirez, Erich, Rodjk, Javier Gonzalez, Habib, Jack, Sakari, Jesper, bg, (had a great friend on the board and blanking trying to rembmber his name... getting old! :)
P