19 out of reach for Nadal?

[rec.sport.tennis]

At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?

[SliceAndDice]

On Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 11:53:33 AM UTC-4, rec.sport.tennis wrote:
> At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
> Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?

Definitely possible for him to win 3 more French Opens. Barring Thiem and maybe Zverev, can't think of anyone who has a decent clay court game.

[stephenJ]

Nope, Nadal could reach 20+ so Roger better keep playing.


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[John Liang]

On Monday, July 17, 2017 at 1:53:33 AM UTC+10, rec.sport.tennis wrote:
> At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
> Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?

Possible, but clay is most physical demanding surface and as he gets older than the windows of opportunity narrows each year. Who knows what will happen to both Nadal and Federer next year ? They are old now their slam winning days could stop any time. We all know Nadal took 3 years to get his form back, if he presses too hard he could be up for a career ending injury. I think 19 is out of reach for Nadal.

[hu...@whoever.com]

On Sunday, July 16, 2017 at 8:53:33 AM UTC-7, rec.sport.tennis wrote:
> At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
> Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?

He is still significantly superior to all others on clay, so he'll be a contender there for 2-3 more years. At least.

On slower HCs like the AO used to be just a couple years ago, he could compete.

Federer is not going to be around to challenge him there, too much longer. Djokovic is waning, and he is likely not the favorite he was the last few years in their matchups.

So 19 is definitely not out of reach. I do suspect though that his challenges will come from the physical side. His body has held up well this year, perhaps even surprisingly so, but his style and mileage will make it extremely difficult.

Of course, he could retool, and become like the player that won the 2010 US Open. Awfully difficult.

Definitely possible, and not out of reach. Although—and this would have been unimaginable a year ago—Federer looks more more likely to win 20 than Nadal is to win 19.

[Carey]

Nadal reaching nineteen? I don't think so...

We will see.

[bob]

On 16 Jul 2017 15:53:32 GMT, "rec.sport.tennis"

<rec.spor...@gmail.com> wrote:

>At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
>Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?

18 is out of reach, let alone 19.

he needed that AO to have any chance to catch federer in slam count.
and without more wimbledons, wouldn't be GOAT in my book.

bob

[Patrick Kehoe]

We can now see with more clarity just how significant AO 2017 and the men's final there really was for the Feds-Rafa duelling majors race. 17-14 they stood at the start of play in Melbourne this January. IF, had Rafa held onto that lead in their epic 5th set, it's 15-17 with the FO coming up, which Rafa WON, going away, so to speak, to make the accounting 16-17. Amazing to consider.

Yes, this is coulda/woulda type speculation, but with a grounding of near certainly we can say Feds at 17 and Rafa at 16 would have changed their historical relationship heading into Wimbledon (perhaps) significantly. All the talk would have been markedly different. Would the result have been altered? Personally, I DON'T believe it would have changed anything much. But we will never know.

Can you imagine, 1 major between them 1st of July?

Didn't happen and the gap is now a gulf, given where they are in their respective careers. 4 majors to tie and 5 to supersede would be asking a lot for a player who hasn't won a major off of the clay in a LONG time.

P

[SliceAndDice]

He is only 31 (going by the current trend, still have a few years left in him) and if Djokovic does not find his way back and the GenNextNext is equally as useless as GenNext, he does have a good chance. Lots of ifs though, and I have a feeling Fed is not done yet.

[bob]

On Tue, 18 Jul 2017 18:31:18 -0700 (PDT), Patrick Kehoe
<pke...@telus.net> wrote:

>On Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 6:16:57 PM UTC-7, bob wrote:
>> On 16 Jul 2017 15:53:32 GMT, "rec.sport.tennis"
>> <rec.spor...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> >At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
>> >Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?
>>
>> 18 is out of reach, let alone 19.
>>
>> he needed that AO to have any chance to catch federer in slam count.
>> and without more wimbledons, wouldn't be GOAT in my book.
>>
>> bob
>
>We can now see with more clarity just how significant AO 2017 and the men's final there really was for the Feds-Rafa duelling majors race.

i saw it the second it happened.

> 17-14 they stood at the start of play in Melbourne this January. IF, had Rafa held onto that lead in their epic 5th set, it's 15-17 with the FO coming up, which Rafa WON, going away, so to speak, to make the accounting 16-17. Amazing to consider.
>Yes, this is coulda/woulda type speculation, but with a grounding of near certainly we can say Feds at 17 and Rafa at 16 would have changed their historical relationship heading into Wimbledon (perhaps) significantly. All the talk would have been markedly different. Would the result have been altered? Personally, I DON'T believe it would have changed anything much. But we will never know.
>Can you imagine, 1 major between them 1st of July?
>Didn't happen and the gap is now a gulf, given where they are in their respective careers. 4 majors to tie and 5 to supersede would be asking a lot for a player who hasn't won a major off of the clay in a LONG time.

rafa has 0 chance to catch 18. but he may get another FO. maybe 1
other slam, with luck.

bob

[Tuan]

Looking back that AO fifth set was far less "epic" than it seemed at the time. After Fed's wobbly first game which he lost, Nadal was pressured all the time and every Nadal serving game had break points, while Fed's serving games were comfortable until the very last game (which is understandable). Total points won were 40 Federer, 29 Nadal. Winners 23 Fed, 13 Nadal (equal numbers of UF). Nadal minimised his loss, but it could easily have been 6-1 or 6-2 Federer.

[Whisper]

All true. Yet, still, we can't really rule Rafa out of winning
USO/AO/FO next 3 slams & suddenly we have that 1 slam gap going into
Wimbledon. Your alternate universe example above could be a reality,
just 1 year later - 19-18 rather than 17-16. In fact it could be a
great prediction in hindsight. Might bookmark this post.

: )





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[stephenJ]

On 7/18/2017 8:16 PM, bob wrote:
> On 16 Jul 2017 15:53:32 GMT, "rec.sport.tennis"
> <rec.spor...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> At best I can see him winning one more slam away from Roland Garros.
>> Which leaves him needing 3 more FOs to tie with RF. Possible?
>
> 18 is out of reach, let alone 19.

Way too pessimistic. Nadal has 5 years of youth on Fed. That's 20 more
chances.




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[John Liang]

He is 5 years younger than Federer but his competitiveness on non clay court surfaces is nowhere near as Federer's level as he gets older. He failed to reach a single Wimbledon QF in 5 Wimbledon, He has not gone past 4th round since 2013 at USO. His conversion rate in non clay court final in the last few years is 1 win out of 4 finals and 5 out of 12 life time. Do you seriously believe he will continue to win every FO in the next few years or suddenly turning his bad fortune at Wimbledon and USO in the later part of his career. I don't.