Italy win win the world cup
Raja, The Great
Nice article.
The Eliminator: Who will win?
Email Print Share
By Paul Carr
ESPN Stats & Information
(Archive)
Some people consider picking a World Cup champion an art. Some
consider it a science. Some take the easy way out and always choose
Brazil. That isn't a bad strategy, since it has proven to be right
five times in 18 World Cups. But automatically picking the favorite
isn't the most entertaining way to prognosticate.
The Eliminator is.
The Eliminator doesn't pick a winner. It chooses 31 losers, using
historical statistics and trends to identify the traits of a champion
and apply those criteria to this year's teams, banishing countries a
few at a time until only one is left standing. Here we go ...
• We'll start with the minnows. Since FIFA began its world rankings in
1993, no country outside the top 20 has won the World Cup. The
rankings are often disparaged, and they will change before the
tournament, but we can safely knock out any country currently outside
the top 60. Goodbye to New Zealand (80th), North Korea (102nd) and
host country South Africa (81st).
• No European country has ever won after suffering more than one
qualifying loss. That eliminates Greece, Serbia, Slovakia and
Slovenia. No real surprises there.
• No country has ever won the World Cup after finishing fourth or
worse in its final qualifying group. This applies only to CONMEBOL in
this cycle, and the rule eliminates a pair of two-time champions in
Argentina and Uruguay.
• While we're in South America, let's point out that no country has
ever won after allowing more than one goal per game in qualifying.
Adios, Chile (22 goals allowed in 18 matches).
• Every champion except one (1958 Brazil, which played only two
qualifiers) has averaged at least 1.5 goals per game in qualifying.
Australia, Paraguay and Algeria may exit stage left.
• Aside from the first two World Cups, no country has ever won without
reaching at least the quarterfinals in a previous tournament. See ya,
Ghana, Honduras, Ivory Coast, Japan and Nigeria.
• Using this step earlier would have simplified the process but also
would have deprived us all of so much fun: No country from Africa or
Asia has ever won. Goodbye to Cameroon and South Korea.
• Brazil is the only country to win a World Cup in the opposite
hemisphere, from an East/West standpoint. Plus no CONCACAF country has
ever won. That's a double whammy for Mexico and the United States.
• As counterintuitive as this may sound, the only European country to
win following a perfect qualifying campaign was 1934 Italy, which
played exactly one qualifier. This drops a couple big guns:
Netherlands and Spain.
• Brazil is the only country to participate in every World Cup, and no
other country has ever emerged from Brazil's group to win the title.
That eliminates Portugal.
• Conversely, no country has ever come out of Portugal's group to win
the World Cup, which knocks out perennial favorite Brazil.
• Never has any country come out of the Netherlands' group to win the
title. Tot ziens, Denmark.
• In the past 50 years, no non-host country has won the World Cup
without having previously won a World Cup. The Swiss and their
neutrality lasted longer than expected, but the time has come for them
to depart.
• The only first-time European winners in the past 60 years are France
and England. Both won as tournament host, but neither has ever won a
World Cup outside its own borders, let alone 5,000 miles from home.
• This leaves four-time champion Italy and three-time winner Germany,
which would be a rematch of the 1982 final in Madrid, which Italy won
3-1.
Very little separates these two traditional powers, each of which has
recent and distant history working in its favor. Italy won in 2006 and
Germany took third. Italy is the only European country to win
consecutive titles, in 1934 and 1938. Germany won the ensuing World
Cup after its third-place finish in 1970.
Italy is grouped with Slovakia and has won the World Cup all three
times after playing Czechoslovakia or any of its descendents. Germany
won the 1974 World Cup, which was the only other time that Die
Mannschaft shared a group with Australia.
However, the bottom line is simple. Despite reaching the quarterfinals
in four straight World Cups, Germany hasn't won a title since the
country and its national team reunified shortly after West Germany won
the 1990 World Cup. Ciao, Germany.
Say hello to Italy, The Eliminator's 2010 World Cup champion.
Pedro Dias
bubba
> http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/page/worldcup101-03192...
YAY RAJA CAN CCP!!!!!!!!!!
Raja, The Great
> I thought you were going to stop off-topic posts.
If you call yourself pedro and have no interest in soccer, you might
as well kill yourself.
Patrick Kehoe
> http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/page/worldcup101-03192...
>
++ ITALY???????????????? They were the joke winner last time...
totally outplayed and fluked it out... the 2006 world cup winners
Italy by FAR the weakest winning side in the last 40 years relative to
the best teams... AND BORING beyond belief!!!!!!!
P
Insane Ranter
Lord of War
>
> - Show quoted text -
They scored the second most goals and had the least against. The game
vs germany was by far the mosr exciting in recent history. Boring????
Weak???? Are you talking about Italy or yourself???
Raja, The Great
> vs germany was by far the mosr exciting in recent history. Boring????
A lot of people hate Italy. Its a racist thing. And also Italy have a
history of defensive and dull football. But they werent boring in
2006.
Lord of War
>
> - Show quoted text -
Yes, I agree alot of people hate the Azzurri. However, during the last
world cup where I live (Toronto, Canada) a sports show had a story a
few days after the final and they showed that the Azzurri are by far
the most liked and celebrated national team in the world even by non-
italians. They showed how even in Brazil, Brazilians cheered the
Azzurri on after Brazil was sent packing. The journalist doing the
story even went further by calling all Azzurri fans "The Azzurri
Nation". The Azzurri seem to be hated by two groups. The Australians
and the French. The astralians hate them becasue they fell they where
done hard by the Azzurri in the world cup and French hate the Azzurri
because from the national sides to the club sides Italy always wins
more trophies than france. Also, Italy has reall Italians on their
national team and France gets their national team players form poor
slums in north africa.
Deeppe
> On Mar 22, 1:27 pm, "Raja, The Great" <zepflo...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > A lot of people hate Italy. Its a racist thing.
> Italy has reall Italians on their
> national team and France gets their national team players form poor
> slums in north africa.
..................You were saying Raja?
MH
Cute, but one could just as easily have eliminated Italy at the very
beginning. eg. by saying no European WC winner has ever defended its
title outside of Europe. Or no team that has qualified from a group
containing Ireland has ever won the WC.
Abubakr
Don't even need to go that refined, they could have been eliminated by
the trend that no European country has ever won a WC held outside
Europe. Easy.
Quincy
> However, the bottom line is simple. Despite reaching the quarterfinals
> in four straight World Cups,
There we go. Actually, Germany reached the quarterfinals in 14
(fourteen) straight World Cups and not in 4, so what now?
Patrick Kehoe
>
> - Show quoted text -
++ Only Italians and Serie A fanatics held out hope for Italy to win
the WC that year... they were like 5th favourites heading in and THEY
WERE BORING... they are ALWAYS BORING... always playing for the
counter strike, defending in mass numbers, blunting attacks, holding
up with great technical back play and solid goal keeping with mid-
fielders who work double time in their own end... and frankly most
people around the world DREAD Italy making a world cup final, unless
they are Italians PRECISELY BECAUSE OF how they have always played...
if you don't know that you don't know JACK about football...
P
Patrick Kehoe
>
> - Show quoted text -
++ Sounds like something Bob Lenaduzzi would say... absolutely BS...
we LOVE the Italian players... but they are straightjacketed time
after time whenever they have to play for the national team...
P
Lord of War
It is you who knows nothing. Listen fuckface. Teh most inportant thing
is to win the WC. Does it matter how you win it??? Looks like you did
not watch the last WC. Italy was very excting...... again they scored
the second most goals. Your points are not fact. Who do you go for
bigshot????? Let me guess.... Australia......... I think I hear the
dingo eating your baby!
Superdave
In 2006 my experts told me Italy would win and they were correct.
This year they say Brazil. These people seem to know a lot BTW.
Insane Ranter
Superdave
wrote:
I hope not but they seem to know a lot and are right most of the time.
Could be they just are the best at analyzing all the data and predicting a
winner.
Patrick Kehoe
>
> - Show quoted text -
++ You are very correct, Italy did indeed win, the bottom line of a
now corporatist entertainment predicated game... sadly, the Italian
national team do not invest the game with invention and creativity as
a system (though their individual players at club level are
outrageously talented), they become robotic functionaries, driven to
perform defensive processes and reactively opportunistic offensive
schemes... the game is overburdened with defensive play, all too
often... Italy and German's great legacy to the world game... and only
the infantile resort to calling people names... :))))
P
Binder Dundat
The reason to resort to that type of style is that in order to win the
World cup you have to play 7 games in less than a month. It is like
running a marathon a week. Unless you use all 22 players equally
( field two teams) you really can not do it playing all out attacking
football ( especially in the later rounds where you may have overtime
and on top of that most of the time the World cup is played in the
hottest part of the summer.) It may not be pretty but it is the best
way to win.
Or you could use steroids or speed or cocaine, but even then you would
crash before the month is out.
Patrick Kehoe
++ Yes, you are right... and winning 'means' everything in the glory
of the moment, sporting enterprise as conquest... and yet there are
ironies and contradictions as well... the 1982 Brazilian team, though
suffering ever after for NOT WINNING, and baring that 'shame'
domestically, is STILL remembered globally and is a much esteemed
side... one of the most talked about noted and regarded sides that
ever played in the world cup given it's phenomenal and stylish
offensive play... that side is much more famous than the Italians...
in fact, the Brazilian's were named the world team of 1982 NOT the
Italian side...
> It is like running a marathon a week. Unless you use all 22 players equally
> ( field two teams) you really can not do it playing all out attacking
> football ( especially in the later rounds where you may have overtime
> and on top of that most of the time the World cup is played in the
> hottest part of the summer.) It may not be pretty but it is the best
> way to win.
++ Though today, playing total defense is retrograde football as
well... even the Italians are TRYING to be more attack orientated...
but that acculturation, that tendency has proven VERY difficult to
root out of their game internationally...
> Or you could use steroids or speed or cocaine, but even then you would
> crash before the month is out.
++ okayyyyyy ?
Cheers,
P
topspin
Even simpler. The WC has been played in continents/countries with no
real history of football twice in recent years - 1994 US, 2002 S Korea/
Japan.
Results 1994 Brazil bt Italy (boring, boring match); 2002 Brazil bt
Germany.
South Africa is a country where football is highly popular, but it is
a continent which has not held a WC before, and there is no history of
international competition with the big countries.
So...Brazil to win, beating either Italy (in a boring match), Germany,
or Spain, Or England, Or Netherlands.
Deeppe
> ++ Yes, you are right... and winning 'means' everything in the glory
> of the moment, sporting enterprise as conquest... and yet there are
> ironies and contradictions as well...
Regardless of what you think of it, it's an axiom in all major sports
across the world that "defense wins championships".
Keep on hitting your head against that wall, but it ain't moving for
ya.
Bob
> On Mar 23, 9:55 am, Patrick Kehoe <pke...@telus.net> wrote:
>
>> ++ Yes, you are right... and winning 'means' everything in the glory
>> of the moment, sporting enterprise as conquest... and yet there are
>> ironies and contradictions as well...
>
>
> Regardless of what you think of it, it's an axiom in all major sports
> across the world that "defense wins championships".
that's because ref'ing is almost never adequate and allows teams that choose
to disrupt the game by substituting physical contact for ball handling
skills/athleticism.
Patrick Kehoe
++ That's true... and no one, I hope, is arguing that really, it's
such an obvious point, a cliched given in sport... it's just some
teams take defensive play into the realm of boredom cubed... which
doesn't help promote the game...
P
Bob
> On Mar 23, 11:11 am, Deeppe <tut...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> On Mar 23, 9:55 am, Patrick Kehoe <pke...@telus.net> wrote:
>>
>>> ++ Yes, you are right... and winning 'means' everything in the glory
>>> of the moment, sporting enterprise as conquest... and yet there are
>>> ironies and contradictions as well...
>>
>> Regardless of what you think of it, it's an axiom in all major sports
>> across the world that "defense wins championships".
>>
>> Keep on hitting your head against that wall, but it ain't moving for
>> ya.
>
> ++ That's true... and no one, I hope, is arguing that really,
I am. There is no objective reason why defense should win more championships
than offense if defensive team weren't allowed to disrupt the flow of the
game at minimal cost through niggling fouls.
FF
> Patrick Kehoe wrote:
> > On Mar 23, 11:11 am, Deeppe <tut...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Regardless of what you think of it, it's an axiom in all major sports
> >> across the world that "defense wins championships".
> >>
>
> I am. There is no objective reason why defense should win more championships
> than offense if defensive team weren't allowed to disrupt the flow of the
> game at minimal cost through niggling fouls.
Obviously, in order to win you have to be professional in both defense
and offense. Or rather, you have to be professional in defense and
brilliant in offense. Like Spain at the Euros (but let's see what
they'll do at the WCup). Recently indeed there's a little more
emphasis put on the offense, but not as much as it should be.
So there can be objective reasons why offensive teams who don't defend
adequately lose against solid defensive teams that are also good on
the counter. Like Barca last season against Chelsea (that is, it would
have happened except for the reffing).
That said, the refs indeed favor defensive teams, but not so much by
allowing niggling fouls but first of all by not calling a lot of PKs.
The best example of course being Italy 06. Sometimes, as in Chelsea -
Barca, it can also happen that an offensive team is favored.
Patrick Kehoe
>
> - Show quoted text -
++ If you have coached the game at any substantial level, you know
defensive ability is critical given the scoring ratios of football...
P
Bob
Have you noticed how low scoring affairs at the elite level are almost
always very physical and with no flow in the game? (physical in the sense of
'involving physical contact')
It is natural that less skilled teams play the counter, but teams that spend
all of their time defending would lose more games than they would win if
referees systematically called (and issued cards for constant fouling) the
holding, shirt pulling, shoving and general playing of the man instead of
the ball that we see in football.
Insane Ranter
Italy turns games into brawls you mean? Italy/USA WC 2006 and the
whole Final headbutt thing?
Bob
There are objective reasons for defensive teams to win matches, but
excluding times when luck plays a large role, I don't see any inherent
factor explaining how spending most of the time defending in the last 30
meters is more often than not offset by playing the counter unless defenders
can count on systematically disrupting the attacking game.
Bob
Well, let's say that it isn't uncommon for brawls to result from persistent
fouling not called by refs.
penco
Italy won 4 world cups. The are the current champions. Enough said. I
don't care if they have to win every game 1-0 to win it all. I love
celbrating
Patrick Kehoe
++ And Italians internationally are fantastic players contributing
great skill globally... that said, it will be difficult for them to
even make the semi's in South Africia... they don't have the team this
year, imho...
P