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My aces prediction

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TT

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Jul 18, 2017, 1:52:44 AM7/18/17
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I predicted after round 2 that the final amount of aces at Wimbledon
(men) would be 2520 (+- 202 with 95% certainty).

The final amount of aces was 2532 - 13 more than my prediction.

Totally normal speed courts this year, of course.

Wimbledon Aces/points
2004 0,089
2005 0,092
2006 0,089
2007 0,086
2008 0,090
2009 0,100
2010 0,113
2011 0,092
2012 0,095
2013 0,101
2014 0,111
2015 0,104
2016 0,096
2017 0,093

Bharath Purohit

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Jul 18, 2017, 4:37:55 AM7/18/17
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TT , you are one of the most knowledgeable people here in RSt ! Cheers !!

Bharath Purohit

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Jul 18, 2017, 4:39:02 AM7/18/17
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Btw, i was searching for your thread on all great players with their flaws type post that you posted couple of years back. Time to update it now.

The Iceberg

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Jul 18, 2017, 4:52:20 AM7/18/17
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that's a remarkably close prediction!

AZ

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Jul 18, 2017, 5:11:13 AM7/18/17
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And this means exactly what in practical terms? On average, there is 10% chance that any point can be decided by an ace in Wimbledon? Good to know I guess.

In a somewhat related thought, can standalone, predetermined shots like aces be a reliable metric to measure the "slowness" or "fastness" of the court when we want to consider the efficiency the whole array of shots in dynamic tennis rallies? I doubt it. It's like comparing shooting arrows from a standing position and exchanging arrows while running in different directions. Not really comparable. Too many factors to consider to reduce it into a single stat.
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