what can fed do?
steve jaros
at the FO is the serve game.
On Fed's serve, Fed's first serve is clearly a bigger weapon than
Nadal's, so if he lands his first serve he will usually win the point.
However, his second serve is nothing special, and Nadal can easily
return such as to achieve a neutral position in the rally, meaning he
has a good 50% chance to win the point.
Thus, Fed is vulnerable to being broken when he just happens to have a
bad game landing first serves. Sadly for him, that happens at least once
a set, so a Nadal break of serve is likely each set.
In contrast, even though Nadal's first serve is not much of a weapon
(yeah, it occasionally is, but not usually), and his second serve is
nothing at all, it doesn't matter much because he can use his lefty
delivery to send both serves to Fed's backhand.
And Fed's backhand return, which he typically bunts or chips back, is
easy for Nadal to whip around the court. Thus, Nadal has a good chance
to win any point on his own serve, making a Fed break unlikely in any set.
So what can Fed do? IMHO, he should take a page from what Sampras would
do when playing baseliners on grass or fast HC: Almost never chip or
slice the backhand return of serve, just go for broke and rip away at
it. Sure, most of the time, the ball will just spray off the frame or
sail out or into the net. But, if he happens to nail 2 or 3 in a given
game, he can 'steal' a break of serve.
IOW's, while the go-for-broke approach on the backhand return will lose
more points than if Fed plays it safe, it gives him a better chance to
win points in bunches, which is the key to getting a break of serve.
If Fed does this, and has a good day hitting a high first serve %, he
can win the match.
Not likely, but IMO it's his only hope.
--
before agriculture, food-finding was the only occupation
for humans.
- Alan Weisman
number_six
Short service games for Rafa are bad for Fed.
Considering how poorly Fed's tactics have worked in his previous RG
finals against Nadal, I'd be curious to see Fed say, okay, I'll try to
be unspectacular but very, very, solid. I'll try to make this a 70-
minute first set, and at least a 4-hour match, and see if any
vulnerability develops in a very extended match.
It can't work any worse than the stubborn, maladaptive stuff he's
already tried. I'm not blaming Fed for the losses -- Nadal is as tough
a clay court foe as they come -- no, it's the tactical rut Fed gets
into that should be second-guessed.
TennisGuy
+1
steve jaros
> I might lean the opposite of go-for-broke trying to grab a break.
> Short service games for Rafa are bad for Fed.
>
> Considering how poorly Fed's tactics have worked in his previous RG
> finals against Nadal, I'd be curious to see Fed say, okay, I'll try to
> be unspectacular but very, very, solid. I'll try to make this a 70-
> minute first set, and at least a 4-hour match, and see if any
> vulnerability develops in a very extended match.
IMO, that's exactly the wrong tack. Fed can't outlast rafa. He has to
have plenty of energy for his own service games. If he isn't broken, he
can win the TBs.
But he can't waste energy on futile rallies on rafa's serve games. End
those games quickly, one way or the other.
--
Conservatives are the niggers of the Nixon administration.
- Pat Buchanan
Superdave
not bad jaros. not bad at all. yes a key is holding his own serve at any price.
once he's broken. he's done.
Ali Asoag
> But he can't waste energy on futile rallies on rafa's serve games. End
> those games quickly, one way or the other.
>
Actually this is a good proposal. Try to hit winners right away on
Rafa's service game!
steve jaros
Yes, he has to go for broke on the return of serve. Might get lucky and
hit some winners and steal a break, but if not, at least the games end
quick and less energy is expended.
If he chips the backhand return, rafa will just have him on a string
for several shots before winning the point, and fed will have wasted
energy to no effect.
--
So wrong it is to confound independence with liberty.
No one is less independent than a citizen of a free state.
- De Tocqueville
Patrick Kehoe
> in my infinitely expert opinion, the reason nadal handles fed so easily
> at the FO is the serve game.
Has Feds ever served really well against Nadal in a match at the
French Open in 4 tries? NO! So you certainly have a point.
> On Fed's serve, Fed's first serve is clearly a bigger weapon than
> Nadal's, so if he lands his first serve he will usually win the point.
> However, his second serve is nothing special, and Nadal can easily
> return such as to achieve a neutral position in the rally, meaning he
> has a good 50% chance to win the point.
That's where the change in balls from the Dunlop to Babolat has really
worked for Federer. He's serving more aces than he's ever served, per
match, at the French because of the conditions but mainly because of
the balls... I've said this 10 times around here - Federer LOVES
them... he's really hitting his second serve too... Annacone has
definately been a motivator to 'hit' the second serve about 10k
faster... that really made it difficult for Nole to win second service
points AND Nadal has, as you rightly pointed out, feasted on Feds
second serves at times... that's not happening, so far at the FO...
how will Rafa's points production suffer if he cannot win his 'normal
quota' of second serve points... it's almost a hidden feature that
might be critical, either way...
> Thus, Fed is vulnerable to being broken when he just happens to have a
> bad game landing first serves. Sadly for him, that happens at least once
> a set, so a Nadal break of serve is likely each set.
And Nadal has been consipuously broken more this clay season than I
can EVER remember... he's used to bending and NOT being broken and yet
this season he's failed to hold more than ever... against weaker
players it hasn't hurt him... against Djokovic it did leading into
Paris... and his first 2 rounds it hurt him... that's where some of
his confidence has been dented... that and his forehand suddenly going
off line more than ever... ala Fed starting in late 2007...
interesting parallel there...
> In contrast, even though Nadal's first serve is not much of a weapon
> (yeah, it occasionally is, but not usually), and his second serve is
> nothing at all, it doesn't matter much because he can use his lefty
> delivery to send both serves to Fed's backhand.
Yes... that's true and Fed does get 'worn down' trying to corral it...
in November in London and in the first set in Madrid? was it? Fed
showed some signs of getting to that serve to the backhand... Annacone
will have been showing Djokovic's big wide returns, stepping in and
letting fly, as proof that it can be done... you just have to stick
with hit (like Fed net rushing)... even when Joker got burned wide he
KEPT AT IT and then HE was able to break Nadal down confidence
wise... in the Joker semi Fed returned better than I can remember
since - literally - 2007-ish... Fed was that good... makes one wonder
if the 2 days off Fed has was the reason and with only one day off how
can he manage it again...
> And Fed's backhand return, which he typically bunts or chips back, is
> easy for Nadal to whip around the court. Thus, Nadal has a good chance
> to win any point on his own serve, making a Fed break unlikely in any set.
Except that the ball IS receptive to slices - imparting slices - this
ball works for spinning when initially put on the ball but it's
difficult to spin the ball off a ball that comes to you spinning! So
you have to be the guy making the first strike to get all the action
you want... That's why Nadal is having 'range' issues hitting long and
wide more than usual because he's trying to buggy whip wide or to the
baseline with his normal action and it's already been hit to him with
spin so the babolat is trampolining off his strings long and wide...
it's causing him 'control issues' he's never had at Roland Garros
before... and his UE's count is considerably higher than it's ever
been as a result... he'll have to watch that aspect of his game, if he
wants to finish off Feds...
> So what can Fed do? IMHO, he should take a page from what Sampras would
> do when playing baseliners on grass or fast HC: Almost never chip or
> slice the backhand return of serve, just go for broke and rip away at
> it. Sure, most of the time, the ball will just spray off the frame or
> sail out or into the net. But, if he happens to nail 2 or 3 in a given
> game, he can 'steal' a break of serve.
Nadal is more vulnerable now off the serve than he's been since I can
remember and he KNOWS it... that's one issue that's getting under his
skin, mentally... and I am sure that he and Uncle Toni have been
working on the off day to try and get Rafa into a pattern of moderate
first serves with placement to try and keep his percentages up and not
give Fed the initiatives Joker began to find in the Nadal service
games as the season moved toward Paris... that's a cat and mouse game
that will also be a big key... Fed will NOT want to serve 1st in the
second set, if at all possible... because that's Nadal's PRIME attack
game after the 1st set... he LOVES to be returning off that game to
put the mental pressure on Federe with a great return game right out
of the gate...
> IOW's, while the go-for-broke approach on the backhand return will lose
> more points than if Fed plays it safe, it gives him a better chance to
> win points in bunches, which is the key to getting a break of serve.
Could be... I would add Fed needs to hit down the lines with less go
for broke and just get it as deep as possible (as he did against
Joker) and then he's in great position to put the big strike on the
NEXT ball... going wide to Rafa's forehand has been shown by Djokovic
to be an growing issue for Rafa... he covered it against Murray fairly
well because Murray's set up ball wasn't wide enough to the back hand
of Nadal (which Nadal almost ALWAYS hits cross court, especially under
pressure)... that's one Fed will have to identify and punish WITHOUT
CONSTANTLY over hitting it... this is where Rafa's stiffening body
position a the moment of striking the wide/stretched forehand return
(due to Rafa's lesseing flexibility in the knees) is showing up ...
> If Fed does this, and has a good day hitting a high first serve %, he
> can win the match.
I agee, serving is the key to getting a win... and that's why he's
struggled since 2007... and that's where Annacone will either have
earned his money or NOT... :)))
> Not likely, but IMO it's his only hope.
Interesting views... thanks for sharing...
P
Superdave
Have you noticed he is going for returns now? No more of that STUPID bunting the
ball back. This alone will make for a big difference in the match.
Yama
I tend to agree...his normal return game doesn't really work well against
Nadal. His own service game is strong, but prone to breakdowns, and you
only need it to break down once per set.
It's best-of-5, if one strategy does not work, he can attempt another.
If he can avoid being frustrated, and it's not too windy, I think he has
a legit shot of winning.
Fedal matches at RG have always been kinda bad, I hope it's at least
a good match.
PeteWasLucky
No, I disagree. Federer can outlast Nadal, and I agree with #6 , I
would like to see Federer extending the rally and pushing Nadal to be
the one to go for the winner.
Federer plays a balanced game, a balance between forehand and
backhand, and doesn't keep running around his backhand as Nadal does.
Federer has the tools to beat Nadal but he needs to find the way to
get rid of his fear of Nadal.
I said many times that Nadal doesn't like high balls. He likes to be
the one sending them high but not on the receiving end for them.
I want to see Federer boring Nadal, high balls, high balls, high
balls.
Federer tries to speed up the pace, but it never matters, because it's
slow clay and Rafa is always behind the baseline defending very well
and Federer keeps doing UE's.
Nadal's backhand and forehand become useless when he gets high balls.
Manco
he's down 30-0, tank the game. 0-30, go for it.
PeteWasLucky
> For one thing only expend energy returning on the first 2 points. If
> he's down 30-0, tank the game. 0-30, go for it.
What about if it's 30-30?
kaennorsing
Break serve. :-)
PeteWasLucky
So if you give him a chance to win two consecutive points from 30-30,
who don't we give him a chance to win two consecutive points from 30-0
to go 30-30?!
Whisper
Not bad. My feeling is he has to hit a lot of winners, so your
suggestion is a good one as far as winning the point or setting up a winner.
The problem is he will make a lot more errors than he normally does,
which will not fit will with his psyche. He just needs to suck up the
erros & keep his mind on the overall strategy. I think it's a case of
'can't teach an old dog new tricks' unfortunately.
I think absolutely Fed has to win the 1st set to have any chance. If he
can do that & ride his luck on some top notch aggressive play, + get
some luck & lapse from Rafa he may pull it off. Can't see it better
than 10% odds however.
Whisper
> I might lean the opposite of go-for-broke trying to grab a break.
> Short service games for Rafa are bad for Fed.
>
> Considering how poorly Fed's tactics have worked in his previous RG
> finals against Nadal, I'd be curious to see Fed say, okay, I'll try to
> be unspectacular but very, very, solid. I'll try to make this a 70-
> minute first set, and at least a 4-hour match, and see if any
> vulnerability develops in a very extended match.
>
Kidding?
You're suggesting Fed beats Rafa at his own game over 5 sets in FO
final? If you were my coach I'd fire you on the spot.
Whisper
Wow. Who snuck the dumbarse juice into rst.
Whisper
Yep.
Whisper
Yes. And don't get discouraged if it doesn't work for a set or 2.
Might get lucky & it works immediately.
Whisper
This is the advice Uncle Toni would give to Fed.
; )
Whisper
> For one thing only expend energy returning on the first 2 points. If
> he's down 30-0, tank the game. 0-30, go for it.
Yes. He's not going to outlast Rafa, or have much success bunting balls
back. Rafa will be zoned in & make very few errors, so bunting or
trying to outlast him is the very last thing you'd do.
Whisper
Still be aggressive at 1st opportunity, but not recklessly so.
Gracchus
> Not bad. My feeling is he has to hit a lot of winners, so your
> suggestion is a good one as far as winning the point or setting up a winner.
> The problem is he will make a lot more errors than he normally does,
> which will not fit will with his psyche. He just needs to suck up the
> erros & keep his mind on the overall strategy. I think it's a case of
> 'can't teach an old dog new tricks' unfortunately.
> I think absolutely Fed has to win the 1st set to have any chance. If he
> can do that & ride his luck on some top notch aggressive play, + get
> some luck & lapse from Rafa he may pull it off. Can't see it better
> than 10% odds however.
Interesting discussion. I like the "fireball" strategy. Better to roll
the dice with high-risk tennis than get into rallies and let Nadal pin
him in a corner and suck the life out of him. If he gets that first
set, the tone could change a lot.
Superdave
yeah Fed really needs to go for his returns and serve extremely well.
drop shot like crazy when rafa retreats too deep and just royally piss
him off with varied and trick play.
most of all DO NOT MAKE UNFORCED ERRORS.
that is how rafa wins most of his matches.
Whisper
> On Jun 5, 5:43 pm, Whisper<beaver...@ozemail.com> wrote:
>
>> Not bad. My feeling is he has to hit a lot of winners, so your
>> suggestion is a good one as far as winning the point or setting up a winner.
>
>> The problem is he will make a lot more errors than he normally does,
>> which will not fit will with his psyche. He just needs to suck up the
>> 'can't teach an old dog new tricks' unfortunately.
>
>> I think absolutely Fed has to win the 1st set to have any chance. If he
>> some luck& lapse from Rafa he may pull it off. Can't see it better
>> than 10% odds however.
>
> Interesting discussion. I like the "fireball" strategy. Better to roll
> the dice with high-risk tennis than get into rallies and let Nadal pin
> him in a corner and suck the life out of him. If he gets that first
> set, the tone could change a lot.
>
Yes. At least on paper Fed has the ability to hit winners & win many
big points v Rafa, but doesn't have the game to outlast him as some
clowns are suggesting here. They genuinely think Fed just rallying
until Rafa cracks from the baseline is a viable strategy?
Whisper
> On Sun, 05 Jun 2011 20:51:42 +1000, Whisper<beav...@ozemail.com> wrote:
>
>> On 5/06/2011 4:42 PM, Manco wrote:
>>> For one thing only expend energy returning on the first 2 points. If
>>> he's down 30-0, tank the game. 0-30, go for it.
>>
>>
>> Yes. He's not going to outlast Rafa, or have much success bunting balls
>> trying to outlast him is the very last thing you'd do.
>>
>
>
> yeah Fed really needs to go for his returns and serve extremely well.
>
> drop shot like crazy when rafa retreats too deep and just royally piss
> him off with varied and trick play.
>
> most of all DO NOT MAKE UNFORCED ERRORS.
>
> that is how rafa wins most of his matches.
Yeah, Fed has the big shots, the dropshots etc. Just needs to have the
balls to use them at the right time & be optimistic. It's high risk
obviously, but it will give him a chance.
Definition os stupidity - doing the same thing over & over & expecting a
different result.
Superdave
No. But I do believe David slayed Goliath with a slingshot and a stone.
I also believe Fed can slay Nadal with dynamite returns, nuclear serves
and spectacular drop shots.
Gracchus
> Yes. At least on paper Fed has the ability to hit winners & win many
> big points v Rafa, but doesn't have the game to outlast him as some
> clowns are suggesting here. They genuinely think Fed just rallying
> until Rafa cracks from the baseline is a viable strategy?
About as effective as expanding your chest to kill a constricting
anaconda.
I remember Bernd Karbacher coming out against Michael Chang at the USO
with a fireball strategy once. It was working quite well, but he
couldn't sustain it. Chang came back and retrieved Karbacher into
submission.
bob
wrote:
my pick for fed to win is 1 thing: he must take some freebies at net
when the chance arises. simple as that.
bob
Whisper
> On Sun, 05 Jun 2011 22:35:01 +1000, Whisper<beav...@ozemail.com> wrote:
>
>> On 5/06/2011 9:55 PM, Gracchus wrote:
>>> On Jun 5, 5:43 pm, Whisper<beaver...@ozemail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Not bad. My feeling is he has to hit a lot of winners, so your
>>>> suggestion is a good one as far as winning the point or setting up a winner.
>>>
>>>> The problem is he will make a lot more errors than he normally does,
>>>> which will not fit will with his psyche. He just needs to suck up the
>>>> erros& keep his mind on the overall strategy. I think it's a case of
>>>> 'can't teach an old dog new tricks' unfortunately.
>>>
>>>> I think absolutely Fed has to win the 1st set to have any chance. If he
>>>> can do that& ride his luck on some top notch aggressive play, + get
>>>> some luck& lapse from Rafa he may pull it off. Can't see it better
>>>> than 10% odds however.
>>>
>>> Interesting discussion. I like the "fireball" strategy. Better to roll
>>> the dice with high-risk tennis than get into rallies and let Nadal pin
>>> him in a corner and suck the life out of him. If he gets that first
>>> set, the tone could change a lot.
>>>
>>
>>
>> big points v Rafa, but doesn't have the game to outlast him as some
>> clowns are suggesting here. They genuinely think Fed just rallying
>> until Rafa cracks from the baseline is a viable strategy?
>>
>
>
> No. But I do believe David slayed Goliath with a slingshot and a stone.
>
> I also believe Fed can slay Nadal with dynamite returns, nuclear serves
> and spectacular drop shots.
So do I. Can he make enough of them, & at the rate time?
number_six
The hitter's chance hasn't worked in the past and it's not working
today.
Heretofore, Fed has *never* attempted the approach I suggested. It
might well have fallen short, but we'll never know, because in all his
RG matches with Nadal, Fed has never tried it.
Rodjk #613
Pretty much what is happening today.
Rodjk #613
steve jaros
> Interesting views... thanks for sharing...
Likewise, i enjoyed reading your response.
--
10 years from now we'll still be on top.
- p. diddy, 1997
steve jaros
Good point about "teaching dogs new tricks". Fed reminds me of Becker in
that he has an ego thing about being able to rally from the baseline. 20
years ago, to my great frustration, Becker would often choose to stay
back and rally with Agassi/Wilander types just because he had this
stubborn ego-streak that told him he *could* do it. Similarly, Federer
seems to feel the need to prove he can beat Rafa at his own game,
despite (like Becker) all evidence to the contrary ...
This is a psychological hurdle that may bar him from the correct approach.
--
I don't feel we did wrong by taking this great country away
from the Indians. There were a great number of people who
needed new land, and the Indians were selfishly trying to
keep it for themselves.
- John Wayne