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This Is the Year for a Nadal-Federer Final - AH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

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Aug 27, 2011, 11:37:13 AM8/27/11
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This Is the Year for a Nadal-Federer Final

By Tim Joyce - August 27, 2011

As the last Slam championship of the year is upon us it’s interesting to
note that, unlike in previous years, the men’s field is relatively open.
Well, to be more specific, open for the top four men. While there is
nearly zero chance of anyone outside the top four of Novak Djokovic,
Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer or Andy Murray winning the Open, it is still
hard to predict a winner from this quartet.
Simply put – Djokovic is tired, Nadal has been inconsistent, Federer
isn’t the player he was and Murray is just too unpredictable. So
choosing a winner from this bunch is a hunch more than anything else.
Running through past permutations, each of these brilliant players has
notched an important victory over the others in big events.

Additionally, each has intense motivation going for them. For Djokovic,
it’s the chance of continuing his record-setting pace. Nadal seeks to
make up for his devastating loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon and defend his
title. Federer, stubborn as all great champions are, wants to prove his
doubters wrong and show that he can win a major at 30. And Murray is
aching to win his first Slam, something long forecasted for him.

Though he would eventually lose to Rafael Nadal in the final of last
year’s US Open, Djokovic’s come-from-behind semifinal victory over Roger
Federer – in which he faced down a match point – can be viewed as the
starting “confidence point” of Djokovic’s extraordinary run which has
seen the 24 year-old Serb compile an astounding 57-2 match record in 2011.

It was an especially gratifying win for Djokovic as he had lost to
Federer in the three previous US Opens. And it may give Djokovic extra
confidence this year as the two are slated to meet yet again if the draw
plays out to form. In fact, this will be the 14th out of the last 16
Slams in which Djokovic and Federer are in the same half of the draw.
What are the chances? (for those unfamiliar with tennis draws, the sport
doesn’t follow the conventional method of, say, the NCAA where 1 plays 4
and 2 plays 3. Tennis has it that the semifinal and quarterfinal
opponents are random). And, more to the point, what does it do to the
chances of either player making the final?

For Roger Federer it is, as odd as this sounds, a favorable draw to
encounter Djokovic, and not Nadal, in the semifinals. Federer’s
struggles with Nadal are well known. Nadal used to embody a kryptonite
of the clay early on in their rivalry but that quickly spread to all
surfaces.

Even more importantly though, Federer has a way of still getting to
Djokovic in a way that Nadal cannot. After all, Federer defeated
Djokovic in the penultimate round of the French Open before being
vanquished by Nadal in the final. And with Djokovic tired from his
winnings ways (one of the negative effects of winning streaks is that
fatigue builds up because one is always playing in finals) he’d be ripe
for Federer to pull off another Slam upset.

Federer has always played his best in Flushing. One can argue that it’s
his best Slam, having won from 2004-2008 and never failing to reach the
semis since. But for Federer to face off in a sensational semi against
Djokovic, he’ll have to navigate some obstacles.

Though Federer shouldn’t have much of a problem through the first four
rounds (he could face future American hope Ryan Harrison in the third
round), his quarterfinal foe will present difficulty. Awaiting him in
the quarters is likely Jo Wilfred Tsonga or the top ranked American,
Mardy Fish. Tsonga pulled off a stunning victory over Federer at
Wimbledon, coming from two sets down to shock Federer in the
quarterfinals. And he beat Federer on the hard courts a couple of weeks
ago in Montreal. If Federer and Fish were to meet,

Federer should have a far easier time, as his dominating 6-1 record
against Fish indicates.

Like Federer, Djokovic doesn’t appear to face much of a challenge during
the first week of action. He’ll get a daunting foe in the quarters
though against either Tomas Berdych or Gael Monfils. But Djokovic has
had little trouble in the past with either player. Berdych, if his
powerful groundstrokes are consistent, would pose a threat.

On the other half of the draw are the other members of the top four -
defending champion Nadal and Murray. Again, just like with Federer and
Djokovic, neither player appears to have a scary opponent through the
fourth round. Right now, many experts in the tennis world believe this
to be Murray’s best shot at Slam glory.

But Murray has clearly the most difficult quarterfinal possibilities.
The mercurial Scot will likely face hard serving John Isner, 2009 US
Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro or, if form holds, Robin Soderling.

Right now Del Potro is an unknown commodity. He was making tremendous
strides earlier in the year in his comeback from wrist injuries but his
progress has been stalled of late. He can’t be counted out as a factor
though. He has the ability to hit anyone off the court, including the
counter-punching Murray.

Isner is a nightmare matchup for anyone – just ask Nadal, who barely
escaped with a victory against the tall American at the French Open. And
he’d pose tremendous problems for Murray.

For Nadal, he should also coast through the first several rounds. His
foe in the final eight could be fellow Spaniard David Ferrer – who beat
Nadal at the Open in 2007 – or sentimental fan favorite Andy Roddick.
Roddick has had an abysmal year. In actuality, he hasn’t played well at
the Slams since his heartbreaking loss to Federer in the 2009 Wimbledon
final, having reached only one quarterfinal in his last seven majors.
Look for Roddick to be extra motivated at his favorite event and he
should meet Nadal in the quarters.

It’s not the norm to have all four top seeds make the semis. But I
envision that will happen at the Open. If there is one player who is
vulnerable it’s Murray as his draw is less forgiving.

It should be exciting stuff, this upcoming Flushing fortnight,
especially because of the unique interplay among the top players; Nadal
can’t beat Djokovic right now, Federer can’t beat Nadal but he can upset
Djokovic, and Murray can look brilliant or terrible against them all.

Federer, if he can survive a tough quarter, will defeat Djokovic and
finally – finally – play Nadal for the US Open championship. As wishful
thinking or illogical as this may seem, the way the draw is set up makes
it a highly possible scenario. This much is certain – Novak Djokovic
will not be adding a third trophy to his 2011 Slam collection.

http://www.realclearsports.com/articles ... 97399.html

Patrick Kehoe

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Aug 27, 2011, 3:50:17 PM8/27/11
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On Aug 27, 8:37 am, TT <as...@usenet.org> wrote:
> This Is the Year for a Nadal-Federer Final
>
> By Tim Joyce - August 27, 2011

That would be good news for Rafa, an answered prayer!

P

Luke Tang

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Aug 27, 2011, 5:02:21 PM8/27/11
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On Aug 27, 8:37 am, TT <as...@usenet.org> wrote:

Let's hope Nadal & Federer do play each other at US Open this year!
The last chance

uly...@mscomm.com

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Aug 27, 2011, 8:15:50 PM8/27/11
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Neither Rafa nor Fed will make the final. Both of their current forms
are positively dismal, based on summer results. It will Djoker and
someone else, perhaps Murray, but probably a darkhorse.

Pedro Dias

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Aug 27, 2011, 9:50:13 PM8/27/11
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I wouldn't put that much stock in the Summer results as predictors.
Still, I have trouble seeing a final without Djokovic (much as I'd
prefer one), and no trouble at all imagining Federer and Nadal being
upset, so there is something of wisdom in your words, young Skywalker.

Superdave

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Aug 27, 2011, 10:48:31 PM8/27/11
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Your logic is sound as usual babe.

BUT

shit happens and it's time Fed was on the side of lady luck.

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