The UK Government Deluded About Brexit?

[Pelle Svanslös]

Last Wednesday, April 25th, May met the President of the European
Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, for dinner in London. Senior members of
the British and EU negotiating teams were also present.

The dinner was a total disaster. But just how badly it went, at least
from the European Commission’s point of view, has only just been revealed:

"Today's FAZ report on May's disastrous dinner with Juncker - briefed by
senior Commission sources -is absolutely damning.

May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems;
but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.

May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be
reelected as PM.

It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily
business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.

May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ
case against her data retention measures-three times.

EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue
could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June. Juncker
objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg
on rights to health care.

Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal,
Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.

May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks;
all confidential until the end of the process. Commission said
impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states &
European Parliament, so documents must be published.

EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses.
"Let us make Brexit a success" she told them. Juncker countered that
Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs
union: "Brexit cannot be a success".

May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been
fully briefed. She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as
a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in
reality. May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs
set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.
I.e., as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience)
then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit.

"The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was
only half way through the dinner).

May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because
there is nothing to that effect in the treaties. Her guests then
informed her that the EU is not a golf club. Davis then objected that EU
could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said
Juncker, then no trade deal.

Leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in
process (a point that Berlin had made repeatedly before).

"I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told
May as he left.

Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May
living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself. Merkel quickly
reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in
Britain still have illusions" comment.

FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is
a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?

Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will
collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.

What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by
Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless. The report
points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages
from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through. Presumably as a
result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental
misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27.

Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10
should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak."

Cliffe's analysis (third paragraph from the end) implies that May has
made a terrible mistake. She has put hardline Brexiteers in charge of
negotiating the UK's exit from the EU and its new trade relationships
after Brexit. They appear to be systematically deceiving her. As a
result, she is not in possession of the true facts.

Presumably these wrecking tactics are intended to further the
Brexiteers' real aim of a no-deal exit from the EU - the so-called
'clean Brexit'. But the cost of such an exit for the UK would be
terrible. Such behaviour from the Brexiteers is unbelievably
irresponsible. And it undermines May's own credibility, just as she is
seeking a new mandate from the British people to strengthen her hand in
the negotiations.

If the UK is to secure the smoothest possible end to the UK's membership
of the EU and the best possible relationship between the UK and the EU
in the future, the British team must conduct the negotiations in good
faith and with good will. The Brexiteers have demonstrated neither. May
must sack them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/04/30/the-uk-government-is-completely-deluded-about-brexit/#255e76a64f04