1-0 vs England
3-2 vs Spain
2-1 vs Sweden
Incredibly, Healy scored all six of Northern Ireland's goals in those
games. He now has 29 goals goals in 56 international appearances - a
goals per game ratio of .52, which is better than what Michael Owen
and Thierry Henry have managed playing against largely the same teams.
(Of course, Healy has never played in a major international tournament
and still may not.)
Who are some other players to have combined mediocre club careers with
fantastic international records? The one I can think of is Milan
Baros, who has scored 30 goals in 52 games with the Czech Republic (as
of Oct 10, 2006). But Baros has played for Liverpool and Lyon - that's
a far cry from meadering with Leeds in the Championship.
Florin Raducioiu? 21 goals in 40 games for Romania.
Didn't make much of a splash wherever he went, did
he? (and he played for an awful lot of different clubs)
While not exactly fitting your criteria the one-tournament
wonders Totò Schillaci and Angelos Charisteas also
spring to mind. And somehow I keep thinking of Pauleta.
There must be more examples for strikers excelling in
their respective national teams while having a mediocre
career, but perhaps none as blatant as David Healy.
Ciao,
Werner
Another point here is that nobody in Northern Ireland's history has
accomplished a goal total even close to Healy's. Behind him, #2 is
Colin Clark with 13 goals on 0.34 gpg.
Of course, Healy's club career might yet pick up. At Leeds this
season, it's tough to score goals, and he's still never played a full
season as a starter anywhere. In spite of that, he has been
consistently productive. At the Championship level, he has 73 goals in
190 starts and 66 sub appearances.
P
> Florin Raducioiu? 21 goals in 40 games for Romania.
> Didn't make much of a splash wherever he went, did
> he? (and he played for an awful lot of different clubs)
That gave me an idea.
Active European players with 20+ international goals (at least 1/3
goals per game):
1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
2. Jan Koller - 48 (75)
3. Pauleta - 47 (89)
4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45 (88)
5. Raul - 44 (102)
6. Patrick Kluivert - 40 (79)
7. Thierry Henry - 39 (91)
8. Michael Owen - 36 (80)
9. Henrik Larsson - 36 (93)
10. David Trezeguet - 35 (68)
11. Dimitar Berbatov - 34 (55)
12. Andriy Shevchenko - 33 (72)
13. Milan Baros - 30 (52)
14. David Healy - 29 (56)*
15. Nuno Gomez - 27 (63)
16. Marcus Allback - 27 (64)
17. Van Nistelrooy - 28 (54)
18. Morientes - 27 (47)
19. Christian Vieri - 23 (49)
20. Filippo Inzaghi - 23 (53)
-----
Sorted by goalscoring rate:
1. Jan Koller - .64 (48/75)
2. Dimitar Berbatov - .618 (34/55)
3. Milan Baros - .577 (30/52)
4. Morientes - .574 (27/47)
5. Pauleta - .528 (47/89)
6. Van Nistelrooy - .519 (28/54)
7. David Healy - .518 (29/56)*
8. David Trezeguet - .515 (35/68)
9. Jon Dahl Tomasson - .511 (45/88)
10. Patrick Kluivert - .506 (40/79)
11. Christian Vieri - .469 (23/49)
12. Hakan Sukur - .467 (50/107)
13. Andriy Shevchenko - .458 (33/72)
14. Michael Owen - .45 (36/80)
15. Filippo Inzaghi - .434 (23/53)
16. Raul - .431 (44/102)
17. Thierry Henry - .429 (39/91)
18. Nuno Gomez - . 429 (27/63)
19. Marcus Allback - .422 (27/64)
20. Henrik Larsson - 36/93 (.387)
Healy ranks 14th in goals and has the 7th highest strike rate. The
other 19 players on this list have played and scored in the Champions
League. Healy, of course, has never even played in the Premiership.
Also, do mine eyes deceive me or is Jan Koller the best striker in the
world.
> While not exactly fitting your criteria the one-tournament
> wonders Totò Schillaci and Angelos Charisteas also
> spring to mind. And somehow I keep thinking of Pauleta.
They are all interesting cases. Schillaci and Charisteas are mediocre
players who played out of their skins for one four-week period and
Pauleta is a prolific scorer at every level except the big stage.
> There must be more examples for strikers excelling in
> their respective national teams while having a mediocre
> career, but perhaps none as blatant as David Healy.
Yep. No way anyone else has ever scored 29 goals for his country while
spending his entire club career in the second division.
> Of course, Healy's club career might yet pick up. At Leeds this
> season, it's tough to score goals, and he's still never played a full
> season as a starter anywhere. In spite of that, he has been
> consistently productive. At the Championship level, he has 73 goals in
> 190 starts and 66 sub appearances.
I'm sure he'll get his chance in the Premiership, especially if Leeds
are relegated as looks likely at the end of the season. But he is 27,
not some emerging young thing. By the way, here are the international
records of the current top five scorers in the Championship:
1. Michael Chopra (English) - no caps
2. Diomansy Kamara (Senegalese) - 3 (0)
3. Grzegorz Rasiak (Polish) - 34 (8)
4. Robert Earnshaw (Wales) - 23 (9)
5. Steve Howard (English) - no caps
All combined: 17 goals, 60 appearances
Healy (22nd on the charts): 29 goals, 56 appearances
Suppose that that 0.283 (= 17/60) is the expected strike rate for
Healy, and that Healy's actual strike rate is a Poisson random
variable with the corresponding mean (sorry for the statistical
jargon). This gives the probability of having as many as 29 goals in
56 caps as almost exactly 1 in 1000.
That's quite a longshot, of course, but with dozens of international
strikers coming and going each year, it hardly pushes the bounds of
possibility.
P
It's more of a longshot than that. Healy does not play for a middling
European country. He plays for an otherwise very poor one. Northern
Ireland's first match in the European qualifiers was a home 3-0 defeat to
Iceland, which seemed in keeping with recent results. This is a team that
went something like 14 games without scoring, not so very long ago.
Leeds might be relegation material in the Championship, but they are a lot
closer to Birmingham and Derby than Northern Ireland are to Italy or
France.
Huw
... and if Northern Ireland only played games against Italy or France,
then Healy's strike rate would be much less probable. But Healy's 29
goals include a recent hat trick against Liechtenstein, as well as
plenty of other games that provided ample opportunity to score. (And
on a statistical note, the Poisson model usually provides *low*
estimates of the probability of unlikely events.)
P
But Healy has scored against England, Spain and Sweden recently, so it's far
from a case of boosting his numbers against the minnows. (At least, no more
than any other striker.) The point remains, that the gap between an
*average* European national side and Northern Ireland is greater than the
gap between Leeds and an average Championship side.
Huw
Interestingly, Healy has already more international goals than all but three
players in the entire history of the Italian national team (Riva, Meazza,
and Piola). This is one of the weirdest anomalies in international football
(not Healy, the fact that no Italian striker is able to rack up goals
consistently).
Daniele
I am sure plenty of Italians have managed good strike rates. They
probably just didn't play long enough. See Vieri and Inzaghi, who
scored 23 goals each but earned just 49 and 53 caps respectively.
Meanwhile, the four leading international goalscorers currently
playing are:
1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
2. Jan Koller - 48 (75)
3. Pauleta - 47 (89)
4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45 (88)
Four years ago, I had a Turkish roommate who would often ask me to
define English words he had never heard before. When he asked about
"euphemism" I said a good example would be calling Sukur a striker. No
offense to the half-Turks on this newsgroup, but if Sukur died
tomorrow and was reincarnated as an Italian, he would not go on to
make 107 appearances for his country.
Another difference between Healy and the Italians is that Healy almost
always starts and usually plays 90 minutes. For instance, Luca Toni's
strike rate of 0.38 may not seem too impressive, but in 26 caps, he's
only made 17 starts, of which only 4 were compete games. As a full-
time player, his strike rate might be closer to 0.6.
> Meanwhile, the four leading international goalscorers currently
> playing are:
>
> 1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
> 2. Jan Koller - 48 (75)
> 3. Pauleta - 47 (89)
> 4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45 (88)
Since you didn't seem to mention it, this looks like UEFA only.
P
> Another difference between Healy and the Italians is that Healy almost
> always starts and usually plays 90 minutes. For instance, Luca Toni's
> strike rate of 0.38 may not seem too impressive, but in 26 caps, he's
> only made 17 starts, of which only 4 were compete games. As a full-
> time player, his strike rate might be closer to 0.6.
Yep. Perhaps one should focus more on the goals per minute ratio than
the goals per game ratio. But even the latter is fairly revealing.
Ranked by strike rate, Sukur is 12th, Pauleta is 5th, and Tomasson is
9th. Koller is number one, which again is totally baffling to me.
It seems to me the best way for a striker to score as many as 50 goals
(Sukur has already done it and the other three will probably get
there) is to play for one of the nations that are good enough to
create lots of chances but don't have a surfeit of international
caliber strikers. Koller and Pauleta, and especially Sukur and
Tomasson, were first choice for their respectively countries almost by
default.
> > Meanwhile, the four leading international goalscorers currently
> > playing are:
>
> > 1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
> > 2. Jan Koller - 48 (75)
> > 3. Pauleta - 47 (89)
> > 4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45 (88)
>
> Since you didn't seem to mention it, this looks like UEFA only.
Yep. I thought it would distort the picture to include players like
Ali Daei (109 goals in 149), Hwang Sun-Hong (50 in 103), and Archie
Thompson (13 goals in one game against American Samoa!). And it would
have been too much work to collect data for all the federations.
I agree that goals per game is revealing. In my experience, it's often
more informative than goals per minute, which is biased in favor of
substitutes (since more goals are scored towards the end of a game).
> Ranked by strike rate ... Koller is number one, which again is totally baffling to me.
It's certainly very interesting, particularly since he only has one
hat trick. A couple of possibilities that come to mind ...
1. In Koller's caps, the Czech Republic has scored a remarkable 2.27
goals per game. He has contributed to that, but so have his teammates,
and his team's open style of play.
2. With its emphasis on crosses and set pieces, international soccer
might reward big forwards. Like Koller, Peter Crouch has a much higher
strike rate internationally (though Healy is only 5'8).
P
> I agree that goals per game is revealing. In my experience, it's often
> more informative than goals per minute, which is biased in favor of
> substitutes (since more goals are scored towards the end of a game).
That's true. It's worth pointing out though that only SOME strikers
score prolifically as substitutes. Peter Crouch, for example, has not
scored from his 11 substitute appearances in the Premiership this
season. But his goals per starts ratio is outstanding: 9 in 16. My
impression is that it's usually quick strikers running at tired
defenders who score the late goals.
> > Ranked by strike rate ... Koller is number one, which again is totally baffling to me.
>
> It's certainly very interesting, particularly since he only has one
> hat trick. A couple of possibilities that come to mind ...
> 1. In Koller's caps, the Czech Republic has scored a remarkable 2.27
> goals per game. He has contributed to that, but so have his teammates,
> and his team's open style of play.
Yep. That would also shed light on why Milan Baros' goalscoring record
for the Czechs is so much better than what he has managed at club
level.
> 2. With its emphasis on crosses and set pieces, international soccer
> might reward big forwards. Like Koller, Peter Crouch has a much higher
> strike rate internationally (though Healy is only 5'8).
This is less convincing to me. Even if it's generally true that
international sides emphasize crosses and set pieces, I don't feel the
Czechs do. And Peter Crouch, despite famously having a good touch for
a big man, is a rather rubbish header of the ball. In view of his
flyweight physique, I'd say the real reason he scores more in
international football than the Premiership is that he gets more
protection from referees. He scores more in the Champions League too.
> Active European players with 20+ international goals (at least 1/3
> goals per game):
> 1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
> 17. Van Nistelrooy - 28 (54)
> 18. Morientes - 27 (47)
19. Del Piero - 27 (82)
Daniele
Even though some players may be better suited to a substitute role, I
suspect that just about everyone scores more goals per minute as a
sub. For example, Crouch might not have scored as a sub this year, but
I checked his Premiership stats from 2005/06 ... only 4 goals in 27
starts but 2 in 5 sub appearances (~70 minutes total).
> Even if it's generally true that
> international sides emphasize crosses and set pieces, I don't feel the
> Czechs do. And Peter Crouch, despite famously having a good touch for
> a big man, is a rather rubbish header of the ball.
You may well be right. If you're an England fan, it might be
interesting to break down Crouch's international goals. Off the top of
my head, the only one I remember is Beckham-to-Crouch against T&T, so
I might be over-generalizing.
P
Vieri could have had a much better record, but he systematically was able to
find little nagging muscular injuries to wiggle out of national team duty
every time there was an away match in Azerbaijan (he was usually back in
full form the following Sunday).
But I think you're right about the general picture: in national teams with
more depth, it's more difficult to maintain your starting spot as a starter.
Then again:
Klinsmann 47 goals in 106 appearances.
Batistuta 56 in 78
Ronaldo 62 in 97
Daniele
Michael Ballack - 35 (75)
> 11. Dimitar Berbatov - 34 (55)
Miroslav Klose - 33 (67)
> 12. Andriy Shevchenko - 33 (72)
> 13. Milan Baros - 30 (52)
>
> 14. David Healy - 29 (56)*
> 15. Nuno Gomez - 27 (63)
> 16. Marcus Allback - 27 (64)
>
> 17. Van Nistelrooy - 28 (54)
> 18. Morientes - 27 (47)
> 19. Christian Vieri - 23 (49)
> 20. Filippo Inzaghi - 23 (53)
Lukas Podolski - 22 (38)
> Lukas Podolski - 22 (38)
How many of those was against San Marino in that 13-0 thumping? :-)
AFAIR: 4
MM
Active European players with 20+ international goals (at least 1/3
goals per game):
1. Hakan Sukur - 50/107 (.467)
2. Jan Koller - 48/75 (.64)
3. Pauleta - 47/89 (.528)
4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45/88 (.511)
5. Raul - 44/102 (.431)
6. Patrick Kluivert - 40/79 (.506)
7. Thierry Henry - 39/91 (.429)
8. Michael Owen - 36/80 (.45)
9. Henrik Larsson - 36/93 (.387)
10. David Trezeguet - 35/68 (.515)
11. Michael Ballack - 35/75 (.44)
12. Dimitar Berbatov - 34/55 (.618)
13. Miroslav Klose - 33/67 (.493)
14. Andriy Shevchenko - 33/72 (.458)
15. Milan Baros - 30/52 (.577)
16. David Healy - 29/56 (.518)*
17. Van Nistelrooy - 28/54 (.519)
18. Morientes - 27/47 (.574)
19. Marcus Allback - 27/64 (.422)
20. Christian Vieri - 23/49 (.469)
21. Filippo Inzaghi - 23/53 (.434)
22. Lukas Podolski - 22/38 (.579)
-----
Sorted by goalscoring rate:
1. Jan Koller - 48/75 (.64)
2. Dimitar Berbatov - 34/55 (.618)
3. Lukas Podolski - 22/38 (.579)
4. Milan Baros - 30/52 (.577)
5. Morientes - 27/47 (.574)
6. Pauleta - 47/89 (.528)
7. Van Nistelrooy - 28/54 (.519)
8. David Healy - 29/56 (.518)*
9. David Trezeguet - 35/68 (.515)
10. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45/88 (.511)
11. Patrick Kluivert - 40/79 (.506)
12. Miroslav Klose - 33/67 (.493)
13. Christian Vieri - 23/49 (.469)
14. Hakan Sukur - 50/107 (.467)
15. Andriy Shevchenko - 33/72 (.458)
16. Michael Owen - 36/80 (.45)
17. Michael Ballack - 35/75 (.44)
18. Filippo Inzaghi - 23/53 (.434)
19. Raul - 44/102 (.431)
20. Thierry Henry - 39/91 (.429)
21. Marcus Allback - 27/64 (.422)
22. Henrik Larsson - 36/93 (.387)
Average strike rate to reach 20+ goals: .498 (without Henrik Larsson,
whose rate is significantly lower than all the others, it's .504)
* Del Piero still left out because he doesn't meet the somewhat
arbitrary .333 goals/game requirement
* Van Nistelrooy moved up because I miscounted last time
* Healy: 16th by goals, 8th by rate
* Ballack: 11th and 17th, despite being a midfielder(!)
Oh hell. I erased Nuno Gomes from this list for some reason.
With Ireland needing 4 minutes of added time to get a 2-1 win in San Marino,
perhaps it's time to reevaluate that thumping?
Gabbage wrote:
> On Mar 29, 5:55 pm, "Werner Pichler" <wpich...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>>Florin Raducioiu? 21 goals in 40 games for Romania.
>>Didn't make much of a splash wherever he went, did
>>he? (and he played for an awful lot of different clubs)
>
>
> That gave me an idea.
>
> Active European players with 20+ international goals (at least 1/3
> goals per game):
>
> 1. Hakan Sukur - 50 (107)
>
> 2. Jan Koller - 48 (75)
> 3. Pauleta - 47 (89)
> 4. Jon Dahl Tomasson - 45 (88)
> 5. Raul - 44 (102)
> 6. Patrick Kluivert - 40 (79)
>
> 7. Thierry Henry - 39 (91)
> 8. Michael Owen - 36 (80)
> 9. Henrik Larsson - 36 (93)
> 10. David Trezeguet - 35 (68)
> 11. Dimitar Berbatov - 34 (55)
> 12. Andriy Shevchenko - 33 (72)
> 13. Milan Baros - 30 (52)
Shouldn't Robbie Keane be in there somewhere ? His strike rate
isn't great (last figures I saw were 29/72, but that is not out of the
range you are looking at.
Klose has over 30 goals and about a .500 strike rate. maybe slightly
better.
Ballack has at least 35 in around 75-80 games (my numbers may be out of
date)
>
> 14. David Healy - 29 (56)*
> 15. Nuno Gomez - 27 (63)
> 16. Marcus Allback - 27 (64)
>
> 17. Van Nistelrooy - 28 (54)
> 18. Morientes - 27 (47)
> 19. Christian Vieri - 23 (49)
> 20. Filippo Inzaghi - 23 (53)
Mutu also has over 20, so there may be several missing from your list.
del Piero also qualifies I think.
Gabbage wrote:
> Here is a player who has had a fairly undistinguished career in the
> Championship (9 goals for Leeds this season) inspiring one of
> football's minnows to three of the most shocking results in
> international football in the past year:
>
> 1-0 vs England
> 3-2 vs Spain
> 2-1 vs Sweden
>
> Incredibly, Healy scored all six of Northern Ireland's goals in those
> games. He now has 29 goals goals in 56 international appearances - a
> goals per game ratio of .52, which is better than what Michael Owen
> and Thierry Henry have managed playing against largely the same teams.
> (Of course, Healy has never played in a major international tournament
> and still may not.)
>
> Who are some other players to have combined mediocre club careers with
> fantastic international records?
Enzo Scifo springs to mind. Always seemed better in a Belgium shirt than
for whatever club he played for.
Karel Poborsky also comes to mind. Journeyman player at club level, but
consistently distinguished for the Czechs.
Although they didn't score as many as healy, both Billy Hamilton and
Gerry Armstrong of Northern Ireland attained more distinction at
international level than they ever did for their clubs. Armstrong even
ended up playing for Mallorca on the strength of his WV 1982
performance. IIRC he was a 3rd division player in England.
Gabbage wrote:
> Here is a player who has had a fairly undistinguished career in the
> Championship (9 goals for Leeds this season) inspiring one of
> football's minnows to three of the most shocking results in
> international football in the past year:
>
> 1-0 vs England
> 3-2 vs Spain
> 2-1 vs Sweden
>
> Incredibly, Healy scored all six of Northern Ireland's goals in those
> games. He now has 29 goals goals in 56 international appearances - a
> goals per game ratio of .52, which is better than what Michael Owen
> and Thierry Henry have managed playing against largely the same teams.
> (Of course, Healy has never played in a major international tournament
> and still may not.)
>
> Who are some other players to have combined mediocre club careers with
> fantastic international records?
While his record is not as notable as Healy's,
James McFadden is a bit similar:
10 goals in 31 games for Scotland
8 in 92 for Everton, and hasn't really permanently established himself
in their first team.
> Interestingly, Healy has already more international goals than all but three
> players in the entire history of the Italian national team (Riva, Meazza,
> and Piola). This is one of the weirdest anomalies in international football
> (not Healy, the fact that no Italian striker is able to rack up goals
> consistently).
Does Italy have tend to have long-standing consistent strikers? Seem
that their strikers either star for one WC or are heavily rotated.