Fantasy Scout: H-index, Some Stats
milivella
Michael once suggested to have the H-index as the score of a scout (a
scout has an H-index of n if he has n players with at least n caps).
While I don't agree with such a proposal (1. choices so far have been
made following a different criterion 2. one Messi should win against
two Angeleris), it's interesting to check the H-index of all the
scout:
4 Andrea (Gago 23, Anderson 8, Walcott 8, Dossena 6)
4 Benny (Mandanda 9, Bentley 5, de la Red 4, Pique 4)
3 Daniele (Cazorla 16, Guia 14, Cavenaghi 3)
2 Alberto (Banega 2, Lavezzi 2)
2 Alessandro (Quagliarella 14, Rossi 3)
2 Michael H. (Tasci 7, Beck 3)
2 William (Arbeola 5, Young 2)
1 Enzo (Busquets or Llorente 1)
1 Generoso (Di Maria 2)
1 Jesus (Alexandre Pato 7)
1 Tom (Agbonlahor 2)
2. Some stats
Scouts: picked players
25 Andrea
23 Benny
17 Michael H.
14 Daniele
11 Tom
9 Jesus
7 Generoso, William
6 Mark
5 Alessandro
4 Alberto, Enzo
2 Michael M.
Players: points scored
23 points: 1 player
...
16 1
...
14 2
...
9 1
8 2
7 3
6 1
5 2
4 4
3 7
2 8
1 10
0 97
Players: most present given names (bar Brazilian players)
4 Fernando
3 Andrea, Diego, Gabriel
2 Alvaro, Christian, David, Ezequiel, Federico, James, Jonathan,
Lorenzo, Marco, Mathieu
Players: year of birth
1980 3
1981 1
1982 4
1983 6
1984 7
1985 23
1986 20
1987 26
1988 22
1989 12
1990 11
1991 2
1992 2
Players: month of birth
Jan 25
Feb 16
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 11
Jun 9
Jul 9
Aug 6
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 5
Dec 6
Players: year of pick
2007 28
2008 75
2009 36
Players: month of pick
Jan 48
Feb 17
Mar 10
Apr 5
May 25
Jun 3
Jul 1
Aug 2
Sep 0
Oct 11
Nov 4
Dec 13
Players: caps when picked
0 caps: 117 players
1 15
2 7
Nations: picked players
33 Italy
27 Brazil
18 Argentina
16 France
14 England
13 Spain
12 Germany
6 Netherlands
Nations: number of scouts that have picked at least one player
8 Argentina, England, France, Italy, Spain
7 Brazil
6 -
5 Netherlands
4 -
3 Germany
(Note: there are 13 scouts)
All the stats have been computed in the spreadsheet that you can
download from the site:
http://fantasyscout.altervista.org/data.xls
If you have any idea for a query, please submit it.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
ranked by their average Elo score from January 1, 1970 to April 1,
2009"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strongest_Football_Nations_by_Elo_Ratings
you see that the first 8 are Brazil, Germany, Italy, England,
Netherlands, Argentina, France and Spain, i.e. the 8 nations from
which you can pick players in Fantasy Scout. (Next are Russia and
Czech Republic: to be considered for any proposal to broaden the
pool.)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> Michael once suggested to have the H-index as the score of a scout (a
> scout has an H-index of n if he has n players with at least n caps).
> While I don't agree with such a proposal (1. choices so far have been
> made following a different criterion 2. one Messi should win against
> two Angeleris)
Let me change my mind about point #2: OK, one Messi should win against
two Angeleris, but it's just a theoretical example. In the real game,
if in many years you pick just one Messi and plenty of zero-pointers,
it's fair that you're beaten by people that pick NT-level players with
more regularity.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> In the real game,
> if in many years you pick just one Messi and plenty of zero-pointers,
> it's fair that you're beaten by people that pick NT-level players with
> more regularity.
(And this would happen not only checking the H-index, but with the
actual rule as well.)
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
This has suddenly became a matter of debate, because it has been
proposed to add Portugal and Sweden to the pool.
Now - keeping in mind that the average Elo score over the last 40
years is just one possible metrics of the strength of NTs - the
positions 9-13 are:
9 USSR 1855.7
10 Czechoslovakia 1845.2
11 Yugoslavia 1828.2
12 Portugal 1810.6
13 Sweden 1796.9
So Portugal and Sweden are not the next ones... but it depends on the
way you consider NTs #9-11 in their actual form:
- Is Russia stronger than Portugal and Sweden? Not so sure.
- Czech Republic seems to have kept Czechoslovakia's strength, so they
should be preferred to Por and Swe.
- Serbia is definitely < Yugoslavia.
So, if you agree with a 12 (or more) nation army (po-po-po-po-po-po-
po), it should be OK to add Portugal and Sweden, as well as Russia and
Czech Republic.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> This has suddenly became a matter of debate, because it has been
> proposed to add Portugal and Sweden to the pool.
The problem could be framed in the following way (as well as in
different ways):
1. Should the list of eligible nations be fixed or change over time?
Mark is for a fixed list, and I too think that this is the best
solution.
2. How many eligible nations there should be?
Both Mark and Michael saw 10 as a good number, because after the top
10 the distance between a nation and the next one is little, indeed
you can argue forever which nations are in the 10th-15th positions.
3. Which nations?
If we're a fixed list (1) of 10 nations (2), we can look at all-time
rankings. Let's take the all-time WC table:
http://www.planetworldcup.com/NATIONS/maraton.html
PL W D L GOALS PTS
1.Brazil 92 64 14 14 201- 84 206
2.Germany 92 55 19 18 190-112 184
3.Italy 77 44 19 14 122- 69 151
4.Argentina 65 33 13 19 113- 74 112
5.England 55 25 17 13 74- 47 92
6.France 51 25 10 16 95- 64 85
7.Spain 49 22 12 15 80- 57 78
8.Sweden 46 16 13 17 74- 69 61
9.Netherlands 36 16 10 10 59- 38 58
10.Russia *** 37 17 6 14 64- 44 57
11.Serbia ** 40 16 8 16 62- 56 56
12.Uruguay 40 15 10 15 65- 57 55
13.Poland 31 15 5 11 44- 40 50
14.Hungary 32 15 3 14 87- 57 48
15.Mexico 45 11 12 22 48- 84 45
16.Czech Republic * 33 12 5 16 47- 49 41
17.Austria 29 12 4 13 43- 47 40
18.Belgium 36 10 9 17 46- 63 39
19.Portugal 19 11 1 7 32- 21 34
20.Romania 21 8 5 8 30- 32 29
The 6 original nations are in the top 6 spots, and the 8 actual
nations are in the first 9 spots. Sweden is 8th, so it seems good to
include it; but Portugal is 19th. E.g. Russia could be chosen instead
of Portugal.
Things don't change that much if you factor in the strength of
oppositions, de-factoring the number of matches played at the same
time:
http://www.maasranking.nl/WorldCup.htm
1 Brazil 100.000
2 Germany 98.538
3 Italy 96.951
4 England 94.872
5 Argentina 94.367
6 Spain 92.558
7 Croatia 90.651
8 Netherlands 90.042
9 France 89.548
10 Sweden 89.543
11 Serbia & Montenegro 88.239
12 Poland 87.643
13 Romania 87.260
14 Paraguay 86.995
15 Uruguay 86.568
16 Ukraine 86.252
17 Hungary 85.799
18 Belgium 85.129
19 Portugal 85.106
20 Scotland 85.106
The 8 actual nations are still in the top 9; this time Croatia is the
intruder, but Sweden is in the top 10 anyway; Portugal is still 19th.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
> The 6 original nations are in the top 6 spots, and the 8 actual
> nations are in the first 9 spots. Sweden is 8th, so it seems good to
> include it; but Portugal is 19th. E.g. Russia could be chosen instead
> of Portugal.
> The 8 actual nations are still in the top 9; this time Croatia is the
> intruder, but Sweden is in the top 10 anyway; Portugal is still 19th.
From this point of view, it could seem curious that both Mark and
Michael (the only contestants to have expressed their opinion so far -
and I thank them for having done it) have ruled out Sweden but not
Portugal. Of course their choice makes sense from other perspectives.
Maybe this contradiction (WC all-time table vs. subjective perception)
is a sign that it's difficult to have a clear ranking after spot
#8? :/
--
Cheers
milivella