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The John de Lange RSS Olympic Games 2012 Men & Women Football Sophisticated Prediction Contest

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anders t

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Jul 3, 2012, 8:31:33 AM7/3/12
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Announcing The John de Lange RSS Olympic Games 2012 Men & Women Football
Sophisticated Prediction Contest. RSSers are welcome to participate.

NOTICE SPECIFICALLY: This is a politically correct contest. You must
predict both tournaments, and it is the combined result that counts.

Deadline for entries: July 25, 2012, 09:00 CET.

WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO ENTER?

1) ----
Download the spreadsheet at:
www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/spc_og2012mw_agnostic.xls

2) ----
Fill in your predictions (and change "Agnostic" to your name/sig):
Each team can end up in exactly one of the following positions:
a) be a Group #4 => G4
b) be a Group #3 => G3 (NOTE: men only)
c) be the worst Group #3 => GW3 (NOTE: women only)
d) be a QF loser => LQF
e) be a SF loser => LSF
f) be the Final loser => LF
g) be the Final winner => WF

In the columns E-K, and for each team, you are--should you accept the
mission--to assign your predicted probability of a team ending up in
the respective position.

Example: If you think GBR:s men have a 76.56% chance of ending up last in
their group, then you enter 0.7656 in the cell E3 in the spreadsheet.

Be careful to make sure there are OKs in all calculated checkpoints.
They must ALL be OK, for it to be a valid entry.

=============================================================
NOTA BENE!
This contest deploys the rule that the lowest allowable
prediction in any cell is 0.0001. There can thus be no 0s.
And, consequently, since all calculated checkpoints must
add up, all predictions in all cells will be some figure
lower than 1.
=============================================================

In columns O-U you can, if you like, enter "1"s in the corresponding
cell to simulate your results, and later on the actual outcome.

3) ----
Use the address in my usenet profile (you know what you must do first
to make the email address valid!



Send any further questions to this thread, perhaps I have forgotten
something, or something is wrong.



--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England 2011 (19th), UEFA 2008, World 2009
Message has been deleted

Werner Pichler

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Jul 4, 2012, 2:50:30 PM7/4/12
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On Jul 4, 8:45 pm, anders t <anthu_...@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:
> Hey! I spent some time off to produce this!
> No comments?
> Not even sarcasm? :)
>

I think it's a great idea, and I'll participate.
Just send another reminder before the games
actually begin.

Ciao,
Werner
Message has been deleted

Clément

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Jul 4, 2012, 4:05:47 PM7/4/12
to
"anders t" escreveu:
> Quoting Werner Pichler in rec.sport.soccer:
>>On Jul 4, 8:45 pm, anders t wrote:
>>> Hey! I spent some time off to produce this!
>>> No comments?
>>> Not even sarcasm? :)
>>
>>I think it's a great idea, and I'll participate.
>>Just send another reminder before the games
>>actually begin.
>
> Thanks! Will do!

Same here. I fully intend to play, and also on the UEFA WCQ SPC.
Message has been deleted

Jesper Lauridsen

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Jul 8, 2012, 1:16:26 PM7/8/12
to
On 2012-07-04, anders t <anthu_001@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:
> Hey! I spent some time off to produce this!
> No comments?
> Not even sarcasm? :)

The colour scheme is horrible. Blue and yellow are *never* good.

Message has been deleted

Abubakr

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Jul 9, 2012, 1:38:21 AM7/9/12
to
On 5/07/2012 6:17 AM, anders t wrote:
> Great!
>
> Myself, I have no idea how to assess the mens tournament, at least not yet.
> The womens tournament is easier, since the teams are the real NTs.

I think Spain, Brazil are strong and Great Britain is okay too, on paper
at least. But that's about all I can venture to predict with any
confidence. I don't know if that's enough to enter this competition. I'm
not really brushed up on the women's game in recent years either.


Message has been deleted

anders t

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Jul 9, 2012, 4:32:29 AM7/9/12
to
Reminder!

The Scrutineer

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Jul 9, 2012, 5:11:43 AM7/9/12
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"anders t" wrote in message
news:fo5lv7h78s5n692v3...@4ax.com...

> Reminder!

Who is in so far?

Message has been deleted

Futbolmetrix

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Jul 9, 2012, 10:12:41 AM7/9/12
to
On 7/9/2012 1:38 AM, Abubakr wrote:
>
> I think Spain, Brazil are strong and Great Britain is okay too, on paper
> at least.

I'm not so sure about Team GBR. They've never played together, and it's
unclear how much of a home field advantage they'll have.

On the other hand, Uruguay looks quite good. Along with promising
youngsters, they have also named Suarez and Cavani to the squad.

For what it's worth, the bookies have Brazil and Spain as favorites, GBR
and Uruguay a tad behind, Mexico and Switzerland as potential outsiders,
and all the others as no-hopers.

D

Futbolmetrix

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Jul 9, 2012, 10:20:59 AM7/9/12
to
On 7/3/2012 8:31 AM, anders t wrote:
>
> 2) ----
> Fill in your predictions (and change "Agnostic" to your name/sig):
> Each team can end up in exactly one of the following positions:
> a) be a Group #4 => G4
> b) be a Group #3 => G3 (NOTE: men only)
> c) be the worst Group #3 => GW3 (NOTE: women only)
> d) be a QF loser => LQF
> e) be a SF loser => LSF
> f) be the Final loser => LF
> g) be the Final winner => WF
>

Nice, but it is slightly unsophisticated. This is the one tournament
where the third place match matters, so I would add two entries for 3rd
and 4th place finish, instead of "SF loser."

D

Futbolmetrix

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Jul 9, 2012, 10:25:43 AM7/9/12
to
As for the women's tournament, Germany didn't qualify??? And whatever
happened to Norway? Now they're even behind Italy in the FIFA rankings!

Anyway, it looks as if the Yanks are favorites, closely followed by
Japan and Brazil. Sweden and France a bit behind, then GBR, CAN and
North Korea as outsiders. All the others are no hopers.


Abubakr

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Jul 9, 2012, 8:22:12 PM7/9/12
to
Uruguay are definitely a strong contender with their forwards now. I'll
give the predictions a try.


anders t

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Jul 10, 2012, 8:40:00 AM7/10/12
to
Oh my! Sorry, that particular piece of fact certainly escaped me. Of
course, the contest must be fixed. I'm on it, right now.

This also means that Jesus Petry, the only entrant right now, will have to
modify the entry and resend. Sorry for that...

anders t

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Jul 10, 2012, 9:20:51 AM7/10/12
to
UPDATED SECTION 2!
(See also comment from Futbolmetrix and my reply to that.)

Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:
>Announcing The John de Lange RSS Olympic Games 2012 Men & Women Football
>Sophisticated Prediction Contest. RSSers are welcome to participate.
>
>NOTICE SPECIFICALLY: This is a politically correct contest. You must
>predict both tournaments, and it is the combined result that counts.
>
>Deadline for entries: July 25, 2012, 09:00 CET.
>
>WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO ENTER?
>
>1) ----
>Download the spreadsheet at:
>www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/spc_og2012mw_agnostic.xls
>
>2) ----
>Fill in your predictions (and change "Agnostic" to your name/sig):
>Each team can end up in exactly one of the following positions:
>a) be a Group #4 => G4
>b) be a Group #3 => G3 (NOTE: men only)
>c) be the worst Group #3 => GW3 (NOTE: women only)
>d) be a QF loser => LQF
e) be the bronze medal game loser => 4TH
f) be the bronze medal game winner => 3RD
g) be the Final loser => LF
h) be the Final winner => WF
>
In the columns E-L, and for each team, you are--should you accept the
>mission--to assign your predicted probability of a team ending up in
>the respective position.
>
>Example: If you think GBR:s men have a 76.56% chance of ending up last in
>their group, then you enter 0.7656 in the cell E3 in the spreadsheet.
>
>Be careful to make sure there are OKs in all calculated checkpoints.
>They must ALL be OK, for it to be a valid entry.
>
>=============================================================
>NOTA BENE!
>This contest deploys the rule that the lowest allowable
>prediction in any cell is 0.0001. There can thus be no 0s.
>And, consequently, since all calculated checkpoints must
>add up, all predictions in all cells will be some figure
>lower than 1.
>=============================================================
>
In columns P-W you can, if you like, enter "1"s in the corresponding

anders t

unread,
Jul 16, 2012, 4:04:40 AM7/16/12
to
REMINDER!

One entry so far (Jesus Petry)!

NOTE: Less than nine days left now!

anders t

unread,
Jul 23, 2012, 1:07:35 PM7/23/12
to
REMINDER!
Two entries so far (Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix)!
NOTE: Less than TWO days left now!!!
(See also comment from Futbolmetrix and my reply to that.)

Announcing The John de Lange RSS Olympic Games 2012 Men & Women Football
Sophisticated Prediction Contest. RSSers are welcome to participate.

NOTICE SPECIFICALLY: This is a politically correct contest. You must
predict both tournaments, and it is the combined result that counts.

===============================================
Deadline for entries: July 25, 2012, 09:00 CET. <------- !!!
===============================================

WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO ENTER?

1) ----
Download the spreadsheet at:
www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/spc_og2012mw_agnostic.xls

2) ----
Fill in your predictions (and change "Agnostic" to your name/sig):
Each team can end up in exactly one of the following positions:
a) be a Group #4 => G4
b) be a Group #3 => G3 (NOTE: men only)
c) be the worst Group #3 => GW3 (NOTE: women only)
d) be a QF loser => LQF
e) be the bronze medal game loser => 4TH
f) be the bronze medal game winner => 3RD
g) be the Final loser => LF
h) be the Final winner => WF

In the columns E-L, and for each team, you are--should you accept the
mission--to assign your predicted probability of a team ending up in
the respective position.

Example: If you think GBR:s men have a 76.56% chance of ending up last in
their group, then you enter 0.7656 in the cell E3 in the spreadsheet.

Be careful to make sure there are OKs in all calculated checkpoints.
They must ALL be OK, for it to be a valid entry.

============================================================

MH

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Jul 23, 2012, 5:15:46 PM7/23/12
to
On 12-07-23 11:07 AM, anders t wrote:
> REMINDER!
> Two entries so far (Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix)!
> NOTE: Less than TWO days left now!!!
> (See also comment from Futbolmetrix and my reply to that.)

Will get one in, without too much thought so it won't be very good.
Message has been deleted

Clément

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Jul 23, 2012, 6:31:23 PM7/23/12
to
"anders t" escreveu:
> Quoting MH in rec.sport.soccer:
>>On 12-07-23 11:07 AM, anders t wrote:
>>> REMINDER!
>>> Two entries so far (Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix)!
>>> NOTE: Less than TWO days left now!!!
>>> (See also comment from Futbolmetrix and my reply to that.)
>>
>>Will get one in, without too much thought so it won't be very good.
>
> Great! With me that's going to be four entries.

I take it you didn't get mine?

Abra�o,

Luiz Mello

Message has been deleted

Abubakr

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Jul 24, 2012, 2:33:40 AM7/24/12
to
On 24/07/2012 4:28 PM, anders t wrote:
> I didn't at the time of writing, but I've got it now, thanks!
>
> So, valid entries so far: Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix, Cl�ment (and me), and
> awaiting the MH Challenger.

I'll try to get mine in tonight too.

The Scrutineer

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Jul 24, 2012, 6:00:44 AM7/24/12
to


"Abubakr" wrote in message news:julfk2$dp7$1...@dont-email.me...
If Clement is in, I'm in!!!

Futbolmetrix

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Jul 24, 2012, 6:39:03 AM7/24/12
to
On 7/24/2012 6:00 AM, The Scrutineer wrote:
>>
>> So, valid entries so far: Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix, Cl�ment (and me),
>> and
>> awaiting the MH Challenger.
>>
>> I'll try to get mine in tonight too.
>
> If Clement is in, I'm in!!!

And don't forget Aggie's entry!

D

Message has been deleted

anders t

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Jul 25, 2012, 2:00:38 AM7/25/12
to
Not much time left now! ~1 hour!

Valid entries from Jesus Petry, Futbolmetrix, Clem�nt. MH, and me. My entry
can be downloaded at '
www.allt2.se/b143990/sophcon/spc_og2012mw_anderst.zip '. It is pw-protected
and I'll disclose the pw when the comp is finished. So dl it now and verify
then.



Quoting anders t in rec.sport.soccer:

Abubakr

unread,
Jul 25, 2012, 7:40:03 AM7/25/12
to
I can't get in to your usenet profile. What's your email address?

Jesper Lauridsen

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Jul 25, 2012, 9:08:18 AM7/25/12
to
On Jul 25, 8:00 am, anders t <anthu_...@-nospam-hotmail.com> wrote:
> Not much time left now! ~1 hour!

I hadn't realised the deadline was so close. I have submitted, but 5
hours late.

Clément

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Jul 25, 2012, 9:50:14 AM7/25/12
to
"Jesper Lauridsen" escreveu:
> On Jul 25, 8:00 am, anders t wrote:
>> Not much time left now! ~1 hour!
>
> I hadn't realised the deadline was so close. I have submitted, but 5
> hours late.

The first match is still one hour and change away (as I type, it's 10:45
here, 14:45 in London), so I suppose your entry should be good?

It's up to anders, of course, but the more players, the merrier!

Abraço,

Luiz Mello

Clément

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Jul 25, 2012, 9:51:53 AM7/25/12
to
"Abubakr" escreveu:
>I can't get in to your usenet profile. What's your email address?

You have to remove the "-nospam-" thingy in his displayed address.

Abra�o,

Luiz Mello

anders t

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Jul 25, 2012, 10:32:46 AM7/25/12
to
Quoting Cl�ment in rec.sport.soccer:
Yes, unless there is any objection from those having already sent in, I'll
allow it. I've got both Abubakr's and Jesper's, and they look OK. I jave
noted to the protocol, though, that Jesper had uncoloured my beautiful
blue/yellow colour scheme. That, of course, means a penalty of +5 units. ;)

anders t

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Jul 28, 2012, 6:51:40 AM7/28/12
to
Average figures for the seven entries!

SORTED BY GENDER AND GROUP
-------------------------------------------------
GBR ,0621 ,2150 N/A ,3343 ,1036 ,1157 ,0861 ,0832
SEN ,2329 ,4172 N/A ,2356 ,0465 ,0279 ,0206 ,0192
UAE ,6643 ,2834 N/A ,0400 ,0035 ,0032 ,0028 ,0028
URU ,0407 ,0843 N/A ,2171 ,1421 ,1668 ,1789 ,1700

MEX ,1210 ,1914 N/A ,3336 ,1056 ,0954 ,0802 ,0729
KOR ,2543 ,2840 N/A ,3555 ,0418 ,0332 ,0168 ,0143
GAB ,4243 ,2771 N/A ,2400 ,0229 ,0157 ,0100 ,0100
SUI ,2005 ,2475 N/A ,3320 ,0793 ,0690 ,0424 ,0293

BRA ,0076 ,0358 N/A ,1629 ,1364 ,1524 ,2343 ,2706
EGY ,2378 ,2914 N/A ,3358 ,0599 ,0391 ,0194 ,0166
BLR ,3263 ,3842 N/A ,2211 ,0292 ,0200 ,0125 ,0067
NZL ,4282 ,2886 N/A ,2516 ,0168 ,0073 ,0037 ,0037

ESP ,0104 ,0358 N/A ,1704 ,1075 ,1744 ,2426 ,2589
JPN ,1846 ,2425 N/A ,3927 ,0607 ,0573 ,0336 ,0286
HON ,3823 ,3957 N/A ,1747 ,0243 ,0097 ,0073 ,0059
MAR ,4227 ,3260 N/A ,2027 ,0200 ,0129 ,0086 ,0072

-------------------------------------------------

GBR ,0973 N/A ,0324 ,5396 ,1100 ,1001 ,0600 ,0605
NZL ,2899 N/A ,3495 ,3124 ,0185 ,0178 ,0059 ,0059
CMR ,6026 N/A ,1962 ,1545 ,0185 ,0171 ,0055 ,0055
BRA ,0102 N/A ,0060 ,2889 ,1324 ,1776 ,2057 ,1792

JPN ,0512 N/A ,0353 ,3493 ,1219 ,1424 ,1300 ,1700
CAN ,1083 N/A ,0661 ,5658 ,1006 ,0776 ,0508 ,0308
SWE ,0326 N/A ,0303 ,4291 ,1151 ,1187 ,1528 ,1214
RSA ,8079 N/A ,0812 ,0775 ,0173 ,0102 ,0030 ,0030

USA ,0044 N/A ,0110 ,2089 ,1248 ,1466 ,2125 ,2918
FRA ,0519 N/A ,0473 ,4094 ,1361 ,1173 ,1286 ,1095
COL ,7800 N/A ,0867 ,1131 ,0087 ,0059 ,0027 ,0027
PRK ,1637 N/A ,0579 ,5515 ,0959 ,0687 ,0425 ,0197
-------------------------------------------------


SORTED BY GENDER AND WIN FINAL
-------------------------------------------------
BRA ,0076 ,0358 N/A ,1629 ,1364 ,1524 ,2343 ,2706
ESP ,0104 ,0358 N/A ,1704 ,1075 ,1744 ,2426 ,2589
URU ,0407 ,0843 N/A ,2171 ,1421 ,1668 ,1789 ,1700
GBR ,0621 ,2150 N/A ,3343 ,1036 ,1157 ,0861 ,0832
MEX ,1210 ,1914 N/A ,3336 ,1056 ,0954 ,0802 ,0729
SUI ,2005 ,2475 N/A ,3320 ,0793 ,0690 ,0424 ,0293
JPN ,1846 ,2425 N/A ,3927 ,0607 ,0573 ,0336 ,0286
SEN ,2329 ,4172 N/A ,2356 ,0465 ,0279 ,0206 ,0192
EGY ,2378 ,2914 N/A ,3358 ,0599 ,0391 ,0194 ,0166
KOR ,2543 ,2840 N/A ,3555 ,0418 ,0332 ,0168 ,0143
GAB ,4243 ,2771 N/A ,2400 ,0229 ,0157 ,0100 ,0100
MAR ,4227 ,3260 N/A ,2027 ,0200 ,0129 ,0086 ,0072
BLR ,3263 ,3842 N/A ,2211 ,0292 ,0200 ,0125 ,0067
HON ,3823 ,3957 N/A ,1747 ,0243 ,0097 ,0073 ,0059
NZL ,4282 ,2886 N/A ,2516 ,0168 ,0073 ,0037 ,0037
UAE ,6643 ,2834 N/A ,0400 ,0035 ,0032 ,0028 ,0028

-------------------------------------------------

USA ,0044 N/A ,0110 ,2089 ,1248 ,1466 ,2125 ,2918
BRA ,0102 N/A ,0060 ,2889 ,1324 ,1776 ,2057 ,1792
JPN ,0512 N/A ,0353 ,3493 ,1219 ,1424 ,1300 ,1700
SWE ,0326 N/A ,0303 ,4291 ,1151 ,1187 ,1528 ,1214
FRA ,0519 N/A ,0473 ,4094 ,1361 ,1173 ,1286 ,1095
GBR ,0973 N/A ,0324 ,5396 ,1100 ,1001 ,0600 ,0605
CAN ,1083 N/A ,0661 ,5658 ,1006 ,0776 ,0508 ,0308
PRK ,1637 N/A ,0579 ,5515 ,0959 ,0687 ,0425 ,0197
NZL ,2899 N/A ,3495 ,3124 ,0185 ,0178 ,0059 ,0059
CMR ,6026 N/A ,1962 ,1545 ,0185 ,0171 ,0055 ,0055
RSA ,8079 N/A ,0812 ,0775 ,0173 ,0102 ,0030 ,0030
COL ,7800 N/A ,0867 ,1131 ,0087 ,0059 ,0027 ,0027
-------------------------------------------------
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