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Forking Paths - Last day (18)
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milivella
Apr 3, 2012, 7:14:04 PM4/3/12
to
*You* can vote, even if you haven't followed the game so far, because the
only principle of the game is: only what's written in the current post
matters.
.
What had happened
-----------------
Tireless hero Adriano becoming one of Barcelona's key men as title challenge
is boosted by Atl.Madrid win
The Brazil international is not everybody's cup of tea, but he continues to
impress on the right for the Balugrana and his goal at the Calderón earned a
crucial three points
In a modern footballing world of prissy prima donnas and bad attitudes
galore, his effort for the cause should be an example to all.
Atl.Madrid 0 - 1 Barcelona
34' Adriano
.
What options you had
--------------------
Going with the hard working man worked, so you'll keep doing it. But _who_
will be the hard worker this time? Consider that your scouts tell you that
Gijon's strikers are on fire.
A. The hard working man will be the talent man: Messi. Everyone else can
rest if he runs.
B. Hard work is for midfielders: the strikers just have to have to rush in
the right moment. Your midfielders will have to run and run until they take
the ball, to cut the supplies to Gijon's strikers.
You chose B.
.
*WHAT HAPPENED*
---------------
Barcelona 2-0 Gijon
Gijon were lacklustre from the start, deserving to be behind early, but
their poor performance had much to do with the tireless running from the
Blaugrana midfield and the added cutting-edge of Pedro.
.
Why it happened
---------------
[Please consider that there's a brand new algorithm behind the next match!
This is the last sucking output of the old one.]
Barca was a team playing home against great strikers and focused on
hard-working midfielders.
The most similar situation was Everton playing against Chelsea on Februray
11: Everton too played home against a team with great strikers, and focused
on hard-working midfielders.
.
[I'll continue tomorrow or soon, with "what would have happened had you
chosen B, and why", and above all: the final path!]
--
Cheers
milivella
only principle of the game is: only what's written in the current post
matters.
.
What had happened
-----------------
Tireless hero Adriano becoming one of Barcelona's key men as title challenge
is boosted by Atl.Madrid win
The Brazil international is not everybody's cup of tea, but he continues to
impress on the right for the Balugrana and his goal at the Calderón earned a
crucial three points
In a modern footballing world of prissy prima donnas and bad attitudes
galore, his effort for the cause should be an example to all.
Atl.Madrid 0 - 1 Barcelona
34' Adriano
.
What options you had
--------------------
Going with the hard working man worked, so you'll keep doing it. But _who_
will be the hard worker this time? Consider that your scouts tell you that
Gijon's strikers are on fire.
A. The hard working man will be the talent man: Messi. Everyone else can
rest if he runs.
B. Hard work is for midfielders: the strikers just have to have to rush in
the right moment. Your midfielders will have to run and run until they take
the ball, to cut the supplies to Gijon's strikers.
You chose B.
.
*WHAT HAPPENED*
---------------
Barcelona 2-0 Gijon
Gijon were lacklustre from the start, deserving to be behind early, but
their poor performance had much to do with the tireless running from the
Blaugrana midfield and the added cutting-edge of Pedro.
.
Why it happened
---------------
[Please consider that there's a brand new algorithm behind the next match!
This is the last sucking output of the old one.]
Barca was a team playing home against great strikers and focused on
hard-working midfielders.
The most similar situation was Everton playing against Chelsea on Februray
11: Everton too played home against a team with great strikers, and focused
on hard-working midfielders.
.
[I'll continue tomorrow or soon, with "what would have happened had you
chosen B, and why", and above all: the final path!]
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
Apr 4, 2012, 4:34:09 PM4/4/12
to
-----------------------------------------
Player Ratings: Barcelona 1-2 Gijon
Goals from David Barral and Nacho Novo on his injury return give Manuel
Preciado's men a well-earned victory in Barcelona
Messi 8.0 Was Barcelona' key man this evening as he worked tirelessly for
his team. Scored a fine goal and worked Gregory and Jorge Garcia for the
full 90 minutes.
Why it would have happened
--------------------------
[Again: please consider that there's a brand new algorithm behind the next
match! This is the last sucking output of the old one.]
Barcelona was (indeed: would have been) a home team that had only one
player - its best forward - working tirelessy, and played against a team
whose strikers were on fire. The most similar situation was Cyprus playing
against Scotland on November 11, 2011: Cyprus too was a home team that had
only one player - its best forward (Demetris Christofi) - woriking
tirelessy, and played against a team whose strikers were on fire.
*WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
-----------------------
Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT! But
the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right man.
They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be managed by
someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
pick the correct outcome:
A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
B. Any other result.
You have 24 hours to vote.
[The story sucks, there would have been a more credible story if I could
continute it. But I hope that now the algo is good enough.]
--
Cheers
milivella
Futbolmetrix
Apr 4, 2012, 5:26:39 PM4/4/12
to
On 4/4/2012 4:34 PM, milivella wrote:
>
> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
>
> You have 24 hours to vote.
>
Whatever, A. And Santi Cazorla scoring at least a goal.
>
> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
>
> You have 24 hours to vote.
>
If I may, this was not one of the most successful games you have devised...
D
milivella
Apr 4, 2012, 5:41:31 PM4/4/12
to
Futbolmetrix:
> If I may
You may, indeed you have to.
> this was not one of the most successful games you have devised...
Definitely!
--
Cheers
milivella
> If I may
You may, indeed you have to.
> this was not one of the most successful games you have devised...
--
Cheers
milivella
Clément
Apr 5, 2012, 8:54:46 AM4/5/12
to
"milivella" escreveu:
> [The story sucks, there would have been a more credible story if I could
> continute it. But I hope that now the algo is good enough.]
Will you tell us about the algo later? Or is it just what you already
explained, "figure out the outcome of a given match, by looking at its
tactical deployment with the actual players replaced by similar ones"?
Abraço,
Luiz Mello
> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
Very torn on this one. But I'm going with A.
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
> [The story sucks, there would have been a more credible story if I could
> continute it. But I hope that now the algo is good enough.]
explained, "figure out the outcome of a given match, by looking at its
tactical deployment with the actual players replaced by similar ones"?
Abraço,
Luiz Mello
milivella
Apr 8, 2012, 3:33:19 PM4/8/12
to
> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
You chose B.
> -----------------------
>
> Forget Barca, you are suddently given the chance to manage the Spain NT!
> But the federation chose an odd way to choose whether you are the right
> man. They organized a match against Argentina in Madrid. Spain will be
> managed by someone else, but you know the exact line-ups and tactics:
> http://rssclash.altervista.org/0101.jpg
> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if you'll
> pick the correct outcome:
>
> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>
> B. Any other result.
---
WHAT HAPPENED
Spain 2-1 Argentina: two Nino tap-ins
Spain survived a late scare.
The Spain manager played a 4-4-2 formation. Arbeloa got the nod over Marc
Bertran, but the Tenerife player replaced him shortly before half time, due
to injury.
The Argentina manager pushed Gabriel Heinze into the centre of the defence,
and played Nelson Benitez at left-back. Jara was upfront.
Spain went into the lead very early on - Villa's pass across goal found Nino
at the far post, instantly justifying the manager's decision about his
strikers.
Villa left free
---------------
The goal came in the middle of an early spell of concerted Spain pressure,
with Villa the main reason why they started so strongly. Canuto was the man
closest to Villa, but seemed unsure of his responsibilities - was he meant
to be goalside of Villa and keeping a spare man at the back, or pushing
forward and providing an extra man in midfield? Villa was allowed to scamper
between the lines, into space, and had time on the ball to pick passes.
Canuto was also guilty of not tracking him for the goal.
Argentina were brave going forward. Neither Spain central midfielder looked
to break forward, so both Tissone and Lucho Gonzalez were free to push on,
and they combined well with the front three. It was notable how many men
Argentina got into the penalty box when the ball was wide.
Argentina pressure
------------------
The away side had their chances, many of them coming because Cuellar and
Pepe Mora didn't work well as a unit. Too many times they made the same
movement towards the ball, on other occasions they didn't clear quickly
enough. Communication seemed to be a problem - simple long balls forward
caused panic, and by the end of the first half Argentina had created far
more chances than Spain - Jara and Cetto missed good opportunities.
Argentina's wingers also looked threatening, especially Ismael Sosa down the
right. Monreal seemed concerned about Sosa's pace and stuck to him very
tightly, getting drawn into unnecessary fouls too many times - he was lucky
to escape without a card.
Spain good going forward
------------------------
Still, Spain ocassionally looked wonderful when they had the ball. Ricardo
and Xabi Alonso played sensible balls out to the wide players, but the main
quality came from the movement of the front two - Villa dropped deep, whilst
Nino moved out to wide positions before sprinting inside.
The one man who wasn't particularly involved was Cazorla, who had rushed
back to be fit for this game. The presence of the pacey Nelson Benitez kept
him quiet - Heinze would have been much more vulnerable to pace, so it was a
good decision from the Argentina manager at left-back.
Second half
-----------
Villa played deeper in the second half, forming a midfield five at times by
dropping just ahead of Ricardo and Xabi Alonso. This meant he was less of an
obvious attacking threat, though he still sprayed some good passes out to
the flanks.
The second half continued in broadly the same pattern as the first -
Argentina had pressure, Spain looked nervous.
Changes
-------
The Argentina manager brought on Sebastian Blanco with a quarter of the game
to go, but surprisingly removed Jara, with Ismael Sosa going upfront. This
was a strange move - Jara hadn't had a particularly good game, but with
Spain struggling in the air at the back, his physical presence was likely to
be more of a threat than Sosa's pace (or, looking it another way, the threat
of both would have been more of a threat than Sosa's pace alone). The
resulting front four was packed with pace and movement, but with Spain
defending increasingly deep, a more basic approach might have worked.
Spain's right-hand side changed in the second half. Aleman replaced Cazorla,
and Angel replaced Marc Bertran because of injury. Vicente came across to
that side to overload Argentina in the left-back position, and Nino
converted Vicente' low cross for the second.
Bordagaray came on for canuto as the Argentina manager went for the win late
on, in a ramshackle 4-2-4 system. All four attacking players wanted to come
inside, though, which was strange as Argentina had looked at their most
threatening when they'd put crosses into the box. Sebastian Blanco caused
problems with his delivery from corners and forced Cuellar to put into his
own net, but Spain held out.
Conclusion
----------
Neither side overwhelmingly won the the tactical battle here. Spain won the
game but Argentina probably created more goalscoring opportunities, and had
long spells where they put Spain under considerable pressure. They lacked
composure and ruthlessness in the final third - a little more of that, and
they may have caused a shock.
Spain generally played well when Villa got on the ball. His movement early
on constantly threatened to unlock Argentina. The Spain manager would
probably have thrown on an additional central midfielder or defender late on
to help Spain protect the lead, but the double injury problem at right-back
limited the changes he could make, which caused a nervous final few minutes.
You lost!
---
WAIT, IT WOULD NEVER HAPPEN IN THE REAL WORLD!
Well, somehow it did:
http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/03/15/europe/uefa-champions-league/manchester-united-fc/olympique-de-marseille/1058605/
--
Cheers
milivella
El Kot
Apr 8, 2012, 4:01:00 PM4/8/12
to
milivella wrote:
>> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
>>
>> *WHAT OPTIONS YOU HAVE*
>>
>> Now, you'll be the next Spain manager (and "win" Forkig Paths) if
>> you'll pick the correct outcome:
>>
>> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>>
>> B. Any other result.
>
> You chose B.
>
> ---
>
> WHAT HAPPENED
>
> Spain 2-1 Argentina: two Nino tap-ins
[snip]
>> you'll pick the correct outcome:
>>
>> A. Spain winning by 2 or more goals.
>>
>> B. Any other result.
>
> You chose B.
>
> ---
>
> WHAT HAPPENED
>
> Spain 2-1 Argentina: two Nino tap-ins
> You lost!
? How come? It was not a win "by 2 or more goals".
--
No, no, you can't e-mail me with the nono.
milivella
Apr 8, 2012, 4:15:49 PM4/8/12
to
El Kot:
>> You lost!
>
> ? How come? It was not a win "by 2 or more goals".
Sorry, you (i.e. both the persons who voted) chose A. Thanks for spotting my
mistake.
Of course I'd like to know your opinion about this last version of the game,
despite being just a proof of concept (and of course I'll reply to your
previous observations).
--
Cheers
milivella
>> You lost!
>
> ? How come? It was not a win "by 2 or more goals".
mistake.
Of course I'd like to know your opinion about this last version of the game,
despite being just a proof of concept (and of course I'll reply to your
previous observations).
--
Cheers
milivella
El Kot
Apr 9, 2012, 12:19:27 PM4/9/12
to
again, it highlights the difference of opinion about football between humans and
FM. (I would have voted A too.)
milivella
Apr 27, 2012, 10:34:39 AM4/27/12
to
Clément:
> "milivella" escreveu:
1. Randomly select a match from the 2010-11 season.
2. Randomly assign one of the team (Team A) to Spain. The other team (Team
B) will be Spain's opponents, e.g. Argentina.
3. Replace each player from Team A with the Spanish player most similar to
him, and each player from Team B with the Argentinian player most similar to
him. Similarity between two players = square root of the sum of all the
squares of the differences between their Football Manager numerical
attributes.
--
Cheers
milivella
> "milivella" escreveu:
>
>> [The story sucks, there would have been a more credible story if I could
>> continute it. But I hope that now the algo is good enough.]
>
> Will you tell us about the algo later? Or is it just what you already
> explained, "figure out the outcome of a given match, by looking at its
> tactical deployment with the actual players replaced by similar ones"?
Yes, it's just this. The exaxct algorithm I followed is:
>> [The story sucks, there would have been a more credible story if I could
>> continute it. But I hope that now the algo is good enough.]
>
> Will you tell us about the algo later? Or is it just what you already
> explained, "figure out the outcome of a given match, by looking at its
> tactical deployment with the actual players replaced by similar ones"?
1. Randomly select a match from the 2010-11 season.
2. Randomly assign one of the team (Team A) to Spain. The other team (Team
B) will be Spain's opponents, e.g. Argentina.
3. Replace each player from Team A with the Spanish player most similar to
him, and each player from Team B with the Argentinian player most similar to
him. Similarity between two players = square root of the sum of all the
squares of the differences between their Football Manager numerical
attributes.
--
Cheers
milivella
milivella
Apr 27, 2012, 11:53:26 AM4/27/12
to
El Kot:
Would you have voted A (i.e. home-playing Man Utd winning by two or more
goals against Marseille) if the line-ups were these
http://i.imgur.com/V1Fga.jpg
?
If so, you have a difference of opinion with reality, not with FM. ;)
If not, I guess that the problem is that the similarities between the Man
Utd vs. Marseille players above and the Spain vs. Argentina players in this
path are loose.
But I think that this problem could be solved removing the nationality
limit, i.e. replacing Rooney not with the most similar _Spanish_ player, but
with the most similar player _from anywhere_. This makes a lot of
difference. E.g. here are the 62 players who were most similar to Messi in
2010-11, in order:
Cristiano Ronaldo
Silva, David
Ribéry, Franck
Kaká
Robben, Arjen
Ronaldinho
van Persie, Robin
Villa, David
Pandev, Goran
Arshavin, Andrey
Pato
Agüero, Sergio
Benzema, Karim
Cazorla, Santiago
Iniesta, Andrés
Robinho
Simão
Pedro
Higuaín, Gonzalo
Tevez, Carlos
Di María, Angel
Mata, Juan Manuel
Zárate, Mauro
Sneijder, Wesley
Cole, Joe
Rooney, Wayne
Eto'o, Samuel
Gervinho
Domínguez, Alejandro
Cassano, Antonio
Forlán, Diego
Vucinic, Mirko
Rossi, Giuseppe
Perotti, Diego
Totti, Francesco
Anelka, Nicolas
Reyes, José Antonio
Del Piero, Alessandro
van der Vaart, Rafael
Castro, Gonzalo
Ménez, Jérémy
Nasri, Samir
Palacio, Rodrigo
Granero, Esteban
Suárez, Luis
Farfán, Jefferson
Nani
Nenê
Maxi Rodríguez
Lennon, Aaron
Martínez, Jorge
Hazard, Eden
Mutu, Adrian
Afellay, Ibrahim
dos Santos, Giovani
Young, Ashley
Kalou, Salomon
Mancini
Vahirua, Marama
Giovinco, Sebastian
Piatti, Pablo
Modric, Luka
With no limits you replace Messi with Ronaldo, if you have to pick e.g. a
Croatian player you replace Messi with Modric: it's clear that in the latter
case you'll feel that the outcome of the Paths match is random.
--
Cheers
milivella
goals against Marseille) if the line-ups were these
http://i.imgur.com/V1Fga.jpg
?
If so, you have a difference of opinion with reality, not with FM. ;)
If not, I guess that the problem is that the similarities between the Man
Utd vs. Marseille players above and the Spain vs. Argentina players in this
path are loose.
But I think that this problem could be solved removing the nationality
limit, i.e. replacing Rooney not with the most similar _Spanish_ player, but
with the most similar player _from anywhere_. This makes a lot of
difference. E.g. here are the 62 players who were most similar to Messi in
2010-11, in order:
Cristiano Ronaldo
Silva, David
Ribéry, Franck
Kaká
Robben, Arjen
Ronaldinho
van Persie, Robin
Villa, David
Pandev, Goran
Arshavin, Andrey
Pato
Agüero, Sergio
Benzema, Karim
Cazorla, Santiago
Iniesta, Andrés
Robinho
Simão
Pedro
Higuaín, Gonzalo
Tevez, Carlos
Di María, Angel
Mata, Juan Manuel
Zárate, Mauro
Sneijder, Wesley
Cole, Joe
Rooney, Wayne
Eto'o, Samuel
Gervinho
Domínguez, Alejandro
Cassano, Antonio
Forlán, Diego
Vucinic, Mirko
Rossi, Giuseppe
Perotti, Diego
Totti, Francesco
Anelka, Nicolas
Reyes, José Antonio
Del Piero, Alessandro
van der Vaart, Rafael
Castro, Gonzalo
Ménez, Jérémy
Nasri, Samir
Palacio, Rodrigo
Granero, Esteban
Suárez, Luis
Farfán, Jefferson
Nani
Nenê
Maxi Rodríguez
Lennon, Aaron
Martínez, Jorge
Hazard, Eden
Mutu, Adrian
Afellay, Ibrahim
dos Santos, Giovani
Young, Ashley
Kalou, Salomon
Mancini
Vahirua, Marama
Giovinco, Sebastian
Piatti, Pablo
Modric, Luka
With no limits you replace Messi with Ronaldo, if you have to pick e.g. a
Croatian player you replace Messi with Modric: it's clear that in the latter
case you'll feel that the outcome of the Paths match is random.
--
Cheers
milivella
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