Draft Analysis - by round
John Viveiros
Following the last two posts of individual position versus past draft
success, I thought I would compile the data by round.
QB RB WR TE OL DL LB DB
E1def 1-2 1-5 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-10 1-5 1-10
E1 60% 60% 66% 10% 50% 50% 50% 50%
L1 10% 20% 36% 10% 33% 40% 30% 50%
2 7% 10% 16% 10% 11% 10% 33% 33%
3 7% 10% 15% 10% 10% 7% 10% 20%
4 7% 16% 2% 10% 8% 10% 3% 2%
5 7% 10% 2% 10% 2% 15% 3% 2%
Rest 7% 5% 2% 10% 2% 4% 3% 2%
Note: E1 def means Early first round definition for the position.
For the QB position, statistically it seems to matter only if the QB
is chosen #1 or 2 overall, after that, the chances of QB success are
the same for #4 or #30 overall. The rest of the rows are the
percentage chance of getting an impact player in that draft slot, from
historical data.
ANALYSIS:
If you have the top 1 or 2 picks and there is a QB worth picking, do
it. Otherwise, you are just guessing. To generalize, pick up your
offensive stars early in the first round. If you have a mid-to-late
first round pick, DB's tend to be successful. Your chances are still
pretty good with WR, all linemen, and LB's. Avoid QB's and TE's like
the plague. In the second round, pick up defensive skill players
(almost twice as likely to succeed as other positions). Third round,
DB's and WR's are slightly better. After the third round, reverse
that, and do not pick DB's, WR's, or LB's. RB and DL have a
reasonable chance of success. Use late round picks on QB's, TE's,
RB's, and DL's.
What does this mean for the upcoming draft? Leaf and Manning are
probably good selections, although it is unlikely that both will be
great players (~36% chance) or both will be flops (~16% chance). I
used to think that Alonzo Mayes would be a great choice in the late
first round, but between recent draft history and his history with the
"wacky tobacky" I think it would be a mistake to grab him until much
later.
There may be three impact RB's in this year's draft. Enis appears to
have the best shot, but there's about a one-in-five chance of the
second tier guys becoming great (Hicks, Green, Taylor, Edwards, Banks,
Holcombe, etc.). Think of it this way, of these six guys, almost
certainly four of them will be the next Rashaan Salaam (the third best
running back on his team, possibly the fourth if the Bears choose
Enis).
John Viveiros
xxjj...@prodigy.net
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