Draft analysis - Offense
John Viveiros
I decided to look into how certain positions fared in the draft, and
came up with the following generalized results. For the analysis, I
only had full drafts for the years 1990, 1992-1997, and first rounds
from 1988-1997. For a listing of impact players, I used the PFW
listing of blue-chip players from the ESPN website (with a couple
alterations).
Here are the chances of picking up impact players in the draft, by
position and round for the offense (defense to follow in another
post):
QB:
#1or 2 overall - 60% (60% of QB's chosen as first or second overall
have become impact players)
Rest of 1st round - 10% (10% of QB's chosen 3-30 have become impact
players)
Rest of draft - 7% (there is no pattern after the first round. QB's
are just as likely to be impact players at 7th round as 2nd round)
QB ANALYSIS: If a QB isn't good enough to be selected at #1 or #2
overall, there's not a great chance that he'll be better than a 7th
rounder. Teams tend to stretch to pick up QB's, and they get drafted
higher than their talents warrant (Shuler vs. Frerotte, etc).
RB:
#1-5 overall - 60%
Rest of first round - 20%
Rounds 2-5 - 12%
Rest of draft - 6%
RB ANALYSIS: The truly great running backs can be found early in the
first round (Kijana being a notable exception). There is an
historical one-in-five chance of Fred Taylor, Robert Edwards, or Ahman
Green of being a great back (assuming they all go late first round).
Note that 6-10 picks Tim Worley, Tim Biakabutuka, Sammie Smith, and
Tommy Vardell all had a less than stellar careers. I personally think
Curtis Enis, although likely to go top five, has only a slightly
better than average first round (~30%) of being a great back. The
other way to think of it is to draft a running back every year in
those mid-rounds, so you catch the occasional Dorsey Levens, Adrian
Murrell, Terrell Davis (6th round, I know), etc.
WR:
#1-10 overall - 66%
Rest of first round - 36%
Rounds 2-3 - 16%
Rest of draft - 1.5%
WR ANALYSIS: If you draft a WR early in the first round, chance are
you have a real gem. The only guys who really haven't panned out are
Keyshon, Michael Westbrook, and JJ Stokes, and in theory, they could
all become great WR's in the near future (they are certainly starting
calibre guys now). Chances are still pretty good towards the end of
round one. After round three, forget it. Unless some guy just
totally slips through the cracks, scouts know who will make it as a WR
(Mathis and Chrebet are the only counterexamples).
TE:
Rounds 1-7 - 10% (no discernable distribution)
TE ANALYSIS: You can't draft a tight end and expect him to be a
standout. Think of Kyle Brady, the highest rated TE coming out of
college in a while. He's probably a decent starter, but not an impact
player. Who are the best tight ends in the game? Chmura at 157
overall? Shannon Sharpe at 195 overall? As a Vikings fan, our best
tight ends were Stu Voight (1970 - 10th round), Joe Senser (1979 - 6th
round), and Steve Jordan (1982 - 7th round). Do not - I repeat - DO
NOT waste a first round pick on a tight end. It is possible that
Dudley and Gonzales may change the numbers a bit (assuming Dudley
learns how to catch eventually) but they just make the chances of
drafting a good TE in the first round "bad" rather than "abysmal".
OL:
#1-10 overall - 50%
Rest of first round - 33%
Rounds 2-4 - 10%
Rest of draft - 2%
OL ANALYSIS: You can pick up great offensive linemen in the first
round. It's a pretty solid pick. Of course, it isn't a sure thing, as
the Eagles can attest to, with Antone Davis, Lester Holmes, Bernard
Williams, and Jermaine Mayberry all being less than great first round
offensive linemen. After round 4, you can just forget it. Dave Szott
is the only impact offensive lineman drafted after the 4th round in
the decade.
Next - Defense
John Viveiros
xxjj...@prodigy.net
To reply, remove the x's
S. Casey
Thank-you, this was a very nice piece of work. Please forward a copy of
this to Ray Rhodes of the Philadelphia Eagles. I would apprceiate it as we
watched the Eagles organization build the defense of the 90's in the late
80's with Buddy Ryan (e.g., Reggie, Jerome Brown, etc.). The Beagles have
wasted so many picks on the OL it is a laugh. I wonder if we will repeat
this trend. Sean
S. Casey
Warren has inked a deal with the Cowboys. Will he be battling out the job
with Emmitt or is he just signed as a back-up?
S. Casey
I thought this was one very nice piece of work. However, one question.
What is your definition of inpact player? I wanted to know how you did
this as well. Thanks in advance. Sean
Michael Fthenos
S. Casey wrote in message ...
>
>
>Warren has inked a deal with the Cowboys. Will he be battling out the job
>with Emmitt or is he just signed as a back-up?
>
he'll split duty and be a 3rd down back i'm guessing....finally they got
someone without butterfingers to back up emmit....
Sabi...@worldnet.att.net
finally they got
someone without butterfingers to back up emmit....
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
For the sake of the team and fans like myself, I hope the boys let him and
Smith battle it out, especially since emmit has not had the greatest hands
himself, not to mention his inability to move the ball for positive yards
like he use to. Will be interesting to see how it turns out.
>
>
-----== Posted via Deja News, The Leader in Internet Discussion ==-----
http://www.dejanews.com/ Now offering spam-free web-based newsreading
John Viveiros
I got my list of "impact players" from the mid-1997 season listing of
"Blue Chip" NFL players from the ESPN website (created by the Pro
Football Weekly guys). The list is probably still there if you go
looking. While there is much room for argument, it does give a good
starting point to look into where the best players are coming from,
draft position-wise.
As a Vikes fan, I'd argue that it was absurd to leave Brad Johnson off
the list of impact players, given his fine 1996 campaign and the great
start he had in 1997 before the neck injury, but as far as this
analysis goes, adding him as a 9th round impact QB really doesn't
change the fact that you don't really see any difference in QB success
from the second round on.
S. Casey
Thanks, its always good to replicate findings. Actually, I wanted to
something quite similar for fantasy ratings. I do appreciate the info and
thanks for all the work you did. Nice job. Sean