anderson's take on college basketball as we get closer to the start of the season...

[michael anderson]

aka the tournament...

I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now) in addition to catching bits of highlights on sportscenter(when they show them at least).

I really like Louisville. However I read somewhere once that they don't have a good philosophy in terms of offense in that they take too many 2 pt shots. So they need some insanely high 2 pt conversion% to make up for this. Still, they look good. Over the last 5-8years in the nba, advanced statistics have really caught on in the nba. Really, we are seeing the same thing the last few years in the NBA that we saw with baseball in the 80s and 90s in terms of the arrival of sophisticated statistical analysis. And what we know from the nba is that it is smart philosophy to try a lot of 3's(especially corner 3's) and when you aren't shooting 3's you need to be shooting at point blank range. The mid range game is for suckers and dumb people. much like the sacrifice bunt used to be in baseball. but oh yeah I do like lousville except for what may be a borked philosophy.

I also like duke. Again they have a lot of veteran guys who arent quite good enough to be viewed highly by the nba so they thus stay in college and are good college players. Guys like ryan kelly, mason plumlee, seth curry....these are not guys who are going to so much of anything in the nba. But since all the good young players go to the nba after their freshman year, these types can really excel...especially if you throw a lot of them together.

I dont like florida. who are there good players exactly? and my gosh looking at their record they have managed to lose a good number of games in the sec...which except for kentucky cares about basketball about as much as womens water polo.

I dont like kansas, georgetown, miami, or kansas state.

I do like indiana and Michigan.

I don't know what to make of Gonzaga.

So, right now, I like one of the following teams to win it all:

Duke
Indiana
Michigan
Loisville

[Mr. N.A.Cho]

you've turned into a real junkballer.

[JGibson]

On Saturday, March 9, 2013 10:17:48 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
> aka the tournament...
>
>
>
> I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now) in addition to catching bits of highlights on sportscenter(when they show them at least).
>
>
>
> I really like Louisville. However I read somewhere once that they don't have a good philosophy in terms of offense in that they take too many 2 pt shots. So they need some insanely high 2 pt conversion% to make up for this. Still, they look good. Over the last 5-8years in the nba, advanced statistics have really caught on in the nba. Really, we are seeing the same thing the last few years in the NBA that we saw with baseball in the 80s and 90s in terms of the arrival of sophisticated statistical analysis. And what we know from the nba is that it is smart philosophy to try a lot of 3's(especially corner 3's) and when you aren't shooting 3's you need to be shooting at point blank range. The mid range game is for suckers and dumb people. much like the sacrifice bunt used to be in baseball. but oh yeah I do like lousville except for what may be a borked philosophy.

Umm... Rick Pitino basically invented the idea of taking as many 3s as possible and skipping out on mid-range 2s. It does look like Louisville is way short on 3s, but I doubt it's because they decided they should take too many mid-range jump shots.

[dnrapp]

The 3dimes.com people are licking their chops knowing that you will be betting on NCAA games that you know nothing about. I foresee another -30 unit run.

[i_like_sockeye]

On Saturday, March 9, 2013 9:17:48 PM UTC-6, michael anderson wrote:
>
> Duke
> Indiana
> Michigan
> Loisville

3 out of 4 aint bad. I've had Duke, Indiana, and Louisville in my top 4 since 2012. Michigan is too weak
on defense to be a leading contender. Sure they *could* win, but they would be the worst defensive
team to win the title since... ever? The first filter I use too separate the pretenders from the contenders
is teams must rank highly at both offense and defense measured on a per possession basis - some of
those "advanced" stats you referenced. For example, one of the weakest title winners in the past
decade, UConn '11, ranked 16th and 14th in offense and defense.

These teams are top 20 in offense and defense, measured by schedule-adjusted points scored and
allowed per possession according to kenpom.com:

Overall Rank) Team (Off. Rank, Def. Rank)

1) Florida (5, 2)
2) Indiana (1, 13)
3) Louisville (19, 1)
4) Gonzaga (4, 20)
6) Pittsburg (10, 11)
8) Ohio St (14, 9)


Other teams of note:

5) Duke (3, 24) <--- They missed Kelly on defense too.
11) Michigan (2, 56) <---- Pretender Alert!!!!

Finally, if you want to do basketball analysis, start by reading Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver. You'll
thank me later. Some math required.

[JGibson]

So I finally caught onto the fact that the BPI rankings were designed by Oilver. They do seem to make me more comfortable for seeding and selecting the tournament than the Pomeroy rankings, but it seems like he added some non-predictive elements (e.g. making all wins better than all losses).

[i_like_sockeye]

On Sunday, March 10, 2013 12:06:55 PM UTC-5, JGibson wrote:
>
> So I finally caught onto the fact that the BPI rankings were designed by Oilver. They do seem to make me more comfortable for seeding and selecting the tournament than the Pomeroy rankings, but it seems like he added some non-predictive elements (e.g. making all wins better than all losses).

Even though wins are always better than losses, it's still predictive in nature since the amount of the win
is taking into consideration. A small win will always be better than a small loss, but not that much
better. What's different about the BPI is that it gives each game a weight based on how many players
were injured and how many minutes those injured players normally play. In other words, the Kelly-less
Duke games have a smaller weight in BPI than the other Duke games. From my understanding, the BPI,
so far, has had a predictive track record similar or better than some of the other popular predictive
ratings.

[JGibson]

The injury thing is a positive point, but it also has diminishing returns for blowouts, which both Pomeory and Sokol have said is less predictive, and makes me suspect that is why Florida is low in BPI compared to the other two. And with regard to my point above, the BPI would actually give Arizona a positive score for their win over Florida, whereas Pomeroy had a blog post in the beginning of the year, highly emphasizing that a 1 point road loss like that actually suggests the road team is better.

[michael anderson]

On Sunday, March 10, 2013 11:40:57 AM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
> On Saturday, March 9, 2013 9:17:48 PM UTC-6, michael anderson wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Duke
>
> > Indiana
>
> > Michigan
>
> > Loisville
>
>
>
> 3 out of 4 aint bad. I've had Duke, Indiana, and Louisville in my top 4 since 2012. Michigan is too weak
>
> on defense to be a leading contender. Sure they *could* win, but they would be the worst defensive
>
> team to win the title since... ever?

> Overall Rank) Team (Off. Rank, Def. Rank)
>
>
>
> 1) Florida (5, 2)

have you actually *seen* florida any the last month or so though? They've looked dreadful....literally went 8 minutes yesterday with no points to lose to ky(not no baskets, no points).....

[i_like_sockeye]

On Sunday, March 10, 2013 7:18:23 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
> On Sunday, March 10, 2013 11:40:57 AM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
> > 1) Florida (5, 2)
>
> have you actually *seen* florida any the last month or so though?

Those are aren't my rankings, but yeah I've seen Florida this season.

[JGibson]

In kenpom, the gap between Florida and #2 was so much that it matched the gap between #2 and #9. Now, both #2 Indiana and #3 Louisville are within 0.01 Pyth points of Florida. His computer has definitely keyed into the fact that Florida has been slipping relative to the field. It's just that they had such a huge lead.

[J.C. Watts]

On Mar 10, 11:40 am, i_like_sockeye <i_like_sock...@mailandnews.com>
wrote:

Where is Michigan State in these rankings? This just seems like one
of those Izzo teams that is going to be seeded third and make life
hell for everyone in their bracket.

[michael anderson]

On Sunday, March 10, 2013 10:03:57 PM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
> On Sunday, March 10, 2013 7:18:23 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote: > On Sunday, March 10, 2013 11:40:57 AM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote: > > 1) Florida (5, 2) > > have you actually *seen* florida any the last month or so though? Those are aren't my rankings, but yeah I've seen Florida this season.

have you seen them lately? they look horrid...

[J.C. Watts]

They have lost three road games to bubble teams. That isn't "horrid."

See how they do in the SEC tournament.

[michael anderson]

On Monday, March 11, 2013 12:32:53 PM UTC-5, J.C. Watts wrote:
> On Mar 11, 12:26 pm, michael anderson <mianderso...@gmail.com> wrote: > On Sunday, March 10, 2013 10:03:57 PM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote: > > On Sunday, March 10, 2013 7:18:23 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote: > On Sunday, March 10, 2013 11:40:57 AM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote: > > 1) Florida (5, 2) > > have you actually *seen* florida any the last month or so though? Those are aren't my rankings, but yeah I've seen Florida this season. > > have you seen them lately?  they look horrid... They have lost three road games to bubble teams. That isn't "horrid." See how they do in the SEC tournament.

well winning the sec tourney certainly wouldnt impress me, seeing as how the sec is only nominally competing at the sport of college basketball right now.

[i_like_sockeye]

On Monday, March 11, 2013 12:26:50 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
>
> have you seen them lately? they look horrid...

"I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now)" - You

Which is it? Are you too cool for regular season college basketball or do you have some sort of insight
as to how teams have looked the past month? You can't have it both ways. I'll assume the former.

I have watched some college ball and pay attention to efficiency ratings so let me give you some insight.
Over the past month, Florida has had approximately 492 possessions of offense and defense, and they
have outscored its opponents 541 to 425. In other words, they been outscoring their opponents by
over 23 points per 100 possessions, between Feb 12th and Mar 9th. This includes the horrible
offensive stretch that you supposedly witnessed during your 20 minutes of watching college basketball
outside of the Duke/UNC game. That's not quite as strong of a performance as during previous
months, but not a performance that anyone should be calling "horrid".

Florida does everything well on offense and defense, except they don't get to the line very much. You
criticized Louisville for not using the 3-pt shot effective. Guess which team does use the 3-pt shot
effectively? Also, your positive description of Duke... "they have a lot of veteran guys who arent quite
good enough to be viewed highly by the nba so they thus stay in college and are good college players"...
could also be applied to Florida. Something tells me you're discounting the Gators based on the fact
that you don't like the University of Florida, and not based on how they've actually preformed during
the entire season.

I don't think Florida is the team of the decade or a team with a roster full of future NBA stars (who
does?). However, they don't have to be to win it all. They just need to be one of the top teams in 2013,
and they are. They are also going to have to play really well for six straight games, just like everybody
else.

Of course, now that I've woofed them, the Gators are bound to lose in the first round. That would be
so sad, wouldn't it?

[michael anderson]

On Monday, March 11, 2013 2:28:28 PM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
> On Monday, March 11, 2013 12:26:50 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
>
> >
>
> > have you seen them lately? they look horrid...
>
>
>
> "I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now)" - You
>
>
>
> Which is it? Are you too cool for regular season college basketball or do you have some sort of insight
>
> as to how teams have looked the past month? You can't have it both ways. I'll assume the former.
>

I've checked some florida scores the last month...have maybe watched 20 seconds of florida highlights....they just dont look very good. their short little point guard is a very inconsistent shooter(weird release point) and their white forward who shoots threes needs to be open to hit threes. Against mississippi state that isn't a big problem...against nonsec teams in the tourney it will be.

>
>
> Of course, now that I've woofed them, the Gators are bound to lose in the first round. That would be
>
> so sad, wouldn't it?

oh gosh I wouldnt be upset if florida went to the final four or anything....in fact, I wouldn't be all that pleased if alabama went to the final four. And most bama fans feel the same way....(I didn't even know alabama was on the bubble and had a chance to play their way into the tournament until I looked it up just now)....

[dnrapp]

and you have only seen them play in the game vs Ken on Sat.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

Disculpa Senora michael anderson, pero did you really mime the following
on 3/11/2013 7:25 PM???

Hey, moran - why are you posting about something you don't have any
interest in (not to say clue about...)?

And BTW, I'm pretty sure the Big East tournament has more fans than the
SEC championship game.

--
There lived a sage in days of yore
And he a handsome pigtail wore
He wondered much and sorrowed more
Because it hung behind him

[michael anderson]

the bigeast tournament most certainly doesnt have more interest/fans than the sec championship game.....

the only way you could possibly make such an absurd argument would be to total up all the games for the whole tournament, but that makes no sense. You could also total up the whole attendance for class AA baseball and make the case the minor league baseball has more interest in the super bowl for the following reason.

The bigeast basketball tournament championship game typically gets about a 3 share I think...or something in that range. Not all that high.

[i_like_sockeye]

On Monday, March 11, 2013 6:25:47 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
>
> I've checked some florida scores the last month...have maybe watched 20 seconds of florida highlights....they just dont look very good. their short little point guard is a very inconsistent shooter(weird release point) and their white forward who shoots threes needs to be open to hit threes. Against mississippi state that isn't a big problem...against nonsec teams in the tourney it will be.
>
>

6'2" PG Scottie Wilbekin has been a good shooter all season, although he did not shoot well against UK
the other day. Of course, he's not as good of a shooter as Erik Murphy who is 8th in the nation in eFG%
among players who have played at least 60% of available minutes. Only Oladipo and Releford outshot
Murphy among players from major conferences. Saying that he needs to be open to hit threes is silly.
Most players don't attempt threes unless they're open. (J. R. Smith duly noted.) He's a tremendous 3-pt
shooter, and has shot the ball well against several nonsec teams that will be in the tournament. I would
call Wisconsin, MTSU, Marquette, Arizona, and K State nonsec tourney teams, although MTSU may get
snubbed. Murphy made 9 of his 16 3-pt attempts against those teams. Throw out MTSU, and he went
8 for 13 against nonsec tourney teams.

[Zaphod Beeblebrox]

Disculpa Senora michael anderson, pero did you really mime the following

on 3/11/2013 8:18 PM???

> On Monday, March 11, 2013 7:07:20 PM UTC-5, Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:
>> Disculpa Senora michael anderson, pero did you really mime the following
>>
>> on 3/11/2013 7:25 PM???
>>
>>> On Monday, March 11, 2013 2:28:28 PM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
>>
>>>> On Monday, March 11, 2013 12:26:50 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>>
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>> have you seen them lately? they look horrid...
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>> "I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now)" - You
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>> Which is it? Are you too cool for regular season college basketball or do you have some sort of insight
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>> as to how teams have looked the past month? You can't have it both ways. I'll assume the former.
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> I've checked some florida scores the last month...have maybe watched 20 seconds of florida highlights....they just dont look very good. their short little point guard is a very inconsistent shooter(weird release point) and their white forward who shoots threes needs to be open to hit threes. Against mississippi state that isn't a big problem...against nonsec teams in the tourney it will be.
>>
>>>
>>
>>> >
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>> Of course, now that I've woofed them, the Gators are bound to lose in the first round. That would be
>>
>>>>
>>
>>>> so sad, wouldn't it?
>>
>>>
>>
>>> oh gosh I wouldnt be upset if florida went to the final four or anything....in fact, I wouldn't be all that pleased if alabama went to the final four. And most bama fans feel the same way....(I didn't even know alabama was on the bubble and had a chance to play their way into the tournament until I looked it up just now)....
>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Hey, moran - why are you posting about something you don't have any
>>
>> interest in (not to say clue about...)?
>>
>>
>>
>> And BTW, I'm pretty sure the Big East tournament has more fans than the
>>
>> SEC championship game.
>
> the bigeast tournament most certainly doesnt have more interest/fans than the sec championship game.....

Does too.

>
> the only way you could possibly make such an absurd argument would be to total up all the games for the whole tournament, but that makes no sense. You could also total up the whole attendance for class AA baseball and make the case the minor league baseball has more interest in the super bowl for the following reason.
>

Baseball sucks.

> The bigeast basketball tournament championship game typically gets about a 3 share I think...or something in that range. Not all that high.
>

What does a "3 share" mean?

[michael anderson]

On Monday, March 11, 2013 8:34:42 PM UTC-5, Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:
> Disculpa Senora michael anderson, pero did you really mime the following
>
> on 3/11/2013 8:18 PM???
>
> > On Monday, March 11, 2013 7:07:20 PM UTC-5, Zaphod Beeblebrox wrote:
>
> >> Disculpa Senora michael anderson, pero did you really mime the following
>
> >>
>
> >> on 3/11/2013 7:25 PM???
>
> >>
>
> >>> On Monday, March 11, 2013 2:28:28 PM UTC-5, i_like_sockeye wrote:
>
> >>
>
> >>>> On Monday, March 11, 2013 12:26:50 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>> have you seen them lately? they look horrid...
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>> "I should mention that this is based on watching maybe 35 minutes of action all year(15 of which was duke-unc just now)" - You
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>> Which is it? Are you too cool for regular season college basketball or do you have some sort of insight
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>> as to how teams have looked the past month? You can't have it both ways. I'll assume the former.
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>
>
> >>
>
> >>> I've checked some florida scores the last month...have maybe watched 20 seconds of florida highlights....they just dont look very good. their short little point guard is a very inconsistent shooter(weird release point) and their white forward who shoots threes needs to be open to hit threes. Against mississippi state that isn't a big problem...against nonsec teams in the tourney it will be.
>
> >>
>
> >>>
>
> >>
>
> >>> >
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>> Of course, now that I've woofed them, the Gators are bound to lose in the first round. That would be
>
> >>
>
> >>>>
>
> >>
>
> >>>> so sad, wouldn't it?
>
> >>
>
> >>>
>
> >>
>
> >>> oh gosh I wouldnt be upset if florida went to the final four or anything....in fact, I wouldn't be all that pleased if alabama went to the final four. And most bama fans feel the same way....(I didn't even know alabama was on the bubble and had a chance to play their way into the tournament until I looked it up just now)....
>
> >>
>
> >>>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> Hey, moran - why are you posting about something you don't have any
>
> >>
>
> >> interest in (not to say clue about...)?
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >>
>
> >> And BTW, I'm pretty sure the Big East tournament has more fans than the
>
> >>
>
> >> SEC championship game.
>
> >
>
> > the bigeast tournament most certainly doesnt have more interest/fans than the sec championship game.....
>
>
>
> Does too.
>
>
>

not based on reasonable ways to judge....for example tv ratings of the game.

> >
>
> > the only way you could possibly make such an absurd argument would be to total up all the games for the whole tournament, but that makes no sense. You could also total up the whole attendance for class AA baseball and make the case the minor league baseball has more interest in the super bowl for the following reason.
>
> >
>
>
>
> Baseball sucks.
>
>
>
> > The bigeast basketball tournament championship game typically gets about a 3 share I think...or something in that range. Not all that high.
>
> >
>
>
>
>
>
> What does a "3 share" mean?

it means not a lot of people watched.

[Michael Press]

In article <3d2a6548-d71a-4cc5...@googlegroups.com>,

I demand a man card check! Only girlies say "horrid".

--
Michael Press