Mixed Seeding Discussion
Ellery
then quiet coyote at philly invite; higher RRI then Barrio)
2 - Mischief (NW#1)– won toughest region
3 - Alpha Cobra Squadron (Cn #1) – (2-0 v Flycoons)
4 - Flycoons (NW#2) –
5 - Amp (MA#2) – (semi’s last year; only losing record to hooray)
6 - D’oh (NW#3) – (higher finish then shazam)
7 – Shazam Remains (NW #4)(1-0 v Barrio, stronger season then
chewbacca, quiet coyote)
8 – Barrio (SW #1)(coin toss between barrio and PBB)
9 – Peppermint Bon Bon (CN #2)(can be switched with barrio but 8-9
still the same pool)
10 – Quiet Coyote (NE #1) (great regionals, but to put Slow white too
low would be a mistake, therefore they gotta fall in here)
11 – Chewbacca Defense (S #1)(1-0 against Slow)
12 – Slow White (NE#2)(Finalist last year)
13 – Cougars (SW#2) (could be 13 or 14)
14 – Puppet Regime (NE#3)
15 – Bucket (S#2)(gotta be above Guillermo)
16 – Guillermo Y Compania (S#3)
GIving us the following pools:
Hooray Mischief Alpha Flycoons
Barrio Shazam D’oh Amp
PBB Quiet Chewie Slow
Guillermo Bucket Puppet Cougars
Disclaimer: I play for Hooray.
-Tony
Knappy
close.
Alex Peters
Mischief, then shouldn't you also use that same head to head to move
ACS and Amp up as well, both 1-0 over Mischief?
That would yield something like:
1/2 Alpha Cobra Squadron (Beat Mischief, 2-0 vs Flycoons, 0-1 vs D'oh
and Shazam but should be above Flycoons)
1/2 Hooray (1-0 vs Mischief, little data to compare to ACS, ACS has
higher RRI)
3 Amp (1-0 vs Mischief, has to be under Hooray, ACS higher RRI)
4 Mischief (Won NW)
5 Flycoons (Has to be above D'oh)
6 D'oh (Has to be above Shazam)
7 Shazam Remains (beat Barrio)
8 Barrio (Beat ACS but lost to the 4 above NW teams)
9 Peppermint Bon Bon (Lots wins against perhaps questionable strength
teams, but didn't lose to anyone except ACS)
10 Chewbacca Defense (Beat Slow White, Bucket)
11 Bucket (Slightly better common opponents vs Quiet, beat Slow)
12 Quiet Coyote (Has to be above Slow, Puppet)
13 Slow White (Semis last year at least moves them up vs limited
results of Cougars)
14 Cougars (not much to go on, played Barrio tight though)
15 Puppet Regime (have to be below slow white)
16 Guillermo y Compania (the only truly clear seed)
However they could discount the Hooray (and Amp) wins for being early
season (June) and off coast for Mischief. This could push Mischief up
to #1 (for winning the toughest region), OR put ACS as the clear #1,
since they are 1-0 vs Mischief with a more recent wins and on
Mischief's side of the country. It really depends on how much they
weight a single H2H win, which I'm told is less than we probably think
they do.
If you don't put Hooray and Amp over Mischief because of the head to
head, then you have to find justification for putting them ahead of
any of the NW teams who they have no results against, and a lower RRI
than all of them. The NW teams themselves of course shake out very
easily because of the regional finishing rule, but Hooray and Amp (who
has to be below Hooray) could be the 3-4 or the 6-7 or even a split
like 3-7 or whatever (though there is little justification either way
for keeping them together or splitting them). ACS is slightly easier
because they are 2-0 vs Flycoons, and since Flycoons got second in the
NW it pretty easily places them above 3 of the NW teams.
So that could come out looking completely different like:
1. Mischief
2. ACS (should be above Flycoons)
3. Flycoons
4. D'oh
5. Shazam
6. Hooray (but really could be any of the above seeds)
7. Amp (has to be below Hooray)
8-16 the same
spa...@yahoo.com
You are making a mistake by discounting what Barrio is. They should be
the 6. They are better then last year by a considerable margin. Look
at the players. If you had no other measures you could look at who is
new to Barrio. They had a pretty good class. Pay now, or pay later I'd
say.
Alex Peters
> You are making a mistake by discounting what Barrio is. They should be
> the 6. They are better then last year by a considerable margin. Look
> at the players. If you had no other measures you could look at who is
> new to Barrio. They had a pretty good class. Pay now, or pay later I'd
> say.
That's all well and good, but I didn't make them lose to Shazam, D'oh,
Flycoons and Mischief. The only way they are a 6 is if Hooray and Amp
are the 6 and 7, so you slot Barrio at the 6 and move Hooray and Amp
down to the 7 and 8. Cougars on the other hand I could easily see
moving up as high as the 10 if they are good like you say.
ultimatep...@gmail.com
results as anything, according to previous historical analysis that
I've done. That means that, for example, leaving the NE too low this
year could be trouble - but unfortunately - looking at QC's record
(combined with Slow White's), there's no justification for higher.
I see that Hooray is replacing Amp in the semis (top four), but
despite what I said in the first paragraph - Amp could justifiably
argue for a 1-4 spot again too.
There's good justification for this I think, based on two things.
1. There's no suggestion that Amp is not similar to what they were
last year (excusing a loss to Axis at regionals). Their record
indicates similar performance, and we have the one off of Hooray being
better. Amp has been working its way up the rankings, year over year,
and they deserve a good seed based on last year's finish.
2. From what I've seen of the NW, my impression is that the top of the
NW is a bit weaker than it has been in the past - but that the bottom
of the NW is also stronger. In other words, if you threw the last
three NW teams into 5-8, that wouldn't be the worst (although i do
agree that all four NW should be in the top 8). I do not see three NW
teams in the 1-4 spots. I know that this contradicts my year over
year statement in paragraph one.
Of course, the NE also seems weaker, and I'm fine dropping the South
out of the top eight.
I'd try to avoid regional rematches in the top 8 just because things
are so uncertain this year (with significant changes in team
strength). I know, I know - we don't care about regional rematches.
but if you give the NW one spot in each pool, they can play their way
to the 1 seed if they deserve it (which is arguably fine given not a
lot of region vs. region results and weird regional results out of the
NW).
Barrio could argue for 6th - there is no indication of change from
last year. They definitely deserve to be in the top 8.
do what you have to to avoid ACS and PBB in the same pool. I would
suggest that the Central does not deserve as high a spot for their 2nd
place finisher (see historical data). Maybe more like 12th would be
right (the 2nd place Central finish last year).
good luck, George.
spa...@yahoo.com
Discount My word (which you are not) but put Barrio in the 6. What I'm
getting at is that Cougar should be higher then you think.
ultimatep...@gmail.com
> Discount My word (which you are not) but put Barrio in the 6. What I'm
> getting at is that Cougar should be higher then you think.
whether or not cougar should be higher than alex thinks, the SW second
team, barring no results against any team from any other region,
inherits the SW second team's seed. that would be 16, but given the
non-results from those other teams, plus or minus a couple of seeds is
fine. it doesn't get you out of a four seed in your pool. Cougar can
play their way up.
note - i did agree with you about barrio's year over year seeding.
that is earned by last year's finish, and no indication that this
year's crop of top 8 teams is better than last year's.
bil...@gmail.com
> 3 - Alpha Cobra Squadron (Cn #1) – (2-0 v Flycoons
ACS beat the top two teams from NW (Mischief and Flycoons) at ECC.
But they also lost to the two bottom NW teams (D'oh and Shazam). Good
luck sorting that out.
doyle
of those northwest biased threads (it's that gotcha NW media) and I
apologize for rambling on in advance. Also, I have a lot of respect
for all the teams that qualify for nationals and that every team there
is capable of causing an upset against a higher seed (plus, I'm sure
most people don't really care what someone else' opinion about their
team is, they just want some internet fodder to argue about).
Here's what we'd get if we seeded based strictly on historical data
(meaning, putting the top seed from a given region into the spot of
the top 2007 finisher from that region):
1. Mischief (NW1)
2. Quiet Coyote (NE1)
3. Hooray (MA1)
4. Flycoons (NW2)
5. D'oh (NW3)
6. Barrio (SW1)
7. Chewbacca Defense (SO1)
8. Slow White (NE2)
9. Shazam (NW4)
10. Alpha Cobra Squadron (CN1)
11. Puppet Regime (NE3)
12. Peppermint Bon Bon (CN2)
13. Amp (MA2)
14. Bucket (SO2)
15. Cougars (SW2) - moved up a spot with MA losing a bid
16. Guillermo (SO3)
While that's interesting, I think it leaves QC and Chewbacca pretty
heavily over-seeded and Shazam, ACS, Amp and maybe PBB under-seeded.
However, to contradict what I just said, I think people are trying to
seed ACS too high. They should be above the 10th spot the top CN
contender earned last year as they've shown they can compete with
nationals caliber teams but they have fairly little out of region play
to go on.
Lets take a look at what we have seen: they did well at spawnfest
beating monkey and bad larry (both of whom lost most games), beating
Mischief and Flycoons by 1, losing by 1 to D'oh, and losing to shazam
by a few. They also won another game against flycoons during some
ridiculous rain storm in a game that didn't matter that all other
teams left to avoid (and where I'd heard that a bunch of players on
both of their teams may have left) that seems fairly easy to discount
as not being indicative.
It also seems like the two teams out of the NE haven't played as well
against out of region teams as in years past. But, given the history
of that region, I wouldn't count them out. Also, with a blow out win
against each other apiece, maybe putting them in the same pool
together might sort out any thoughts that either one won on a fluke.
Should history outweigh the early season head-to-head with mischief
vs. hooray? I dunno. Both teams have shown up strong in their last
few tournaments (mostly against in region teams). I'll give the nod
to HTH so I don't seem too biased and to follow bil's one NW team per
pool suggestion.
Given that, how about some tweaks:
1. Hooray (MA1)
2. Mischief (NW1)
3. Flycoons (NW2)
4. Quiet Coyote (NE1)
5. D'oh (NW3)
6. Alpha Cobra Squadron (CN1)
7. Amp (MA2)
8. Shazam (NW4)
9. Slow White (NE2)
10. Barrio (SW1)
11. Puppet Regime (NE3)
12. Peppermint Bon Bon (CN2)
13. Chewbacca Defense (SO1)
14. Cougars (SW2)
15. Bucket (SO2)
16. Guillermo (SO3)
That leaves us with pools like:
Hooray (MA1) Mischief (NW1) Flycoons (NW2) Quiet
Coyote (NE1)
Shazam (NW4) Amp (MA2) ACS (CN1) D'oh
(NW3)
Slow White (NE2) Barrio (SW1) Puppet (NE3) PBB
(CN2)
Guillermo (SO3) Bucket (SO2) Cougars (SW2)
Chewbacca (SO1)
Do the current records justify moving Chewbacca so low? Does QC
deserve to be so high? Can PBB take their success out of region?
Should barrio be 6th? ACS has the opportunity to show that its "two"
wins against flycoons wasn't a fluke and I feel like there are real
contenders in every pool.
This avoids all regionals rematches and seems like a good starting
place for me. If other people want to bust out some score-reporter
foo and show me why some team should be moved up or down, I'm more
than willing to listen. Mostly, I'm just too excited from this
weekend to sleep right now.
Chris Doyle
Mischief #3
Kyle Weisbrod
While there is considerably more interregional play in the mixed
division than there was even a couple of years ago, previous years
Nationals results have still proven to be more indicative of Nationals
strength than current year results. Those interregional tournaments
seem to favor the in-region teams. If we are trying to seed to
reflect strength as accurately as possible I would focus primarily on
previous years results and then bump up teams that have had better
than expected results at out of region tournaments without penalizing
them for underperforming. Not only do I think this will help seed
teams accurately it also encourages teams to travel to more out of
region tournaments in future years. Weighting RRI too heavily
actually punishes teams and regions that travel to but don't host any
major interregional tournaments.
All of that said, I'm not sure why the NE is getting as much love in
these suggested rankings as they are. None of the NE teams have
winning records against a team from any other regions and they are a
collective 2-15 against out of region teams at Nationals.
The South teams, despite very limited results have better out of
region record against nationals teams (3-5) and all of those games
took place at tournaments the Southern teams had to fly to.
Overall, I would say that Alex Peters seedings seems the most accurate
to me. I would probably bump Chewbacca up a couple spots to a top 8
seed. And my prediction is that Guillermo will not finish 16th.
1/2 Alpha Cobra Squadron (Beat Mischief, 2-0 vs Flycoons, 0-1 vs
D'oh
and Shazam but should be above Flycoons)
1/2 Hooray (1-0 vs Mischief, little data to compare to ACS, ACS
has
higher RRI)
3 Amp (1-0 vs Mischief, has to be under Hooray, ACS higher RRI)
4 Mischief (Won NW)
5 Flycoons (Has to be above D'oh)
6 D'oh (Has to be above Shazam)
7 Shazam Remains (beat Barrio)
8 Chewbacca Defense (Beat Slow White, losses to AMP,
Mischief and Hooray)
9 Barrio (Beat ACS but lost to the 4 above NW teams)
10 Peppermint Bon Bon (Lots wins against perhaps
questionable strength
teams, but didn't lose to anyone except ACS)
11 Bucket (Slightly better common opponents vs Quiet, beat Slow)
12 Quiet Coyote (Has to be above Slow, Puppet)
13 Slow White (Semis last year at least moves them up vs limited
results of Cougars)
14 Cougars (not much to go on, played Barrio tight though)
15 Puppet Regime (have to be below slow white)
16 Guillermo y Compania (the only truly clear seed)
-Kyle
Bucket
spa...@yahoo.com
>
> - Show quoted text -
Barrio has to be higher then 9. We should be higher then 14. Change
your opinion on that or lose my vote Kyle.
JB
Kyle Weisbrod
ha! I'm not running for anything, champ! With no results outside of
the series and a 16th place finish by last years SW #2 you don't
really have much room to maneuver there. I think 14 is pretty
generous and Puppet could make an argument to be ahead of you.
It seems your sole claim to a higher seed is that you only lost to
Barrio by a couple. But a loss is a loss my friend. And in these
seedings we get to play each other in pool play! So that's like an
easy win for you and then you get the 11 seed.
-Kyle
MC
No.
We have losses against Mischief, Hooray, and Amp. 2 of those losses
were in the Semis and Finals of high quality tournaments. I'm not
saying we should be top 5, but I do not think you can put us at 13. I
think Alex and Kyle have the best seeds we've seen. Some mixture of
their stuff should yield something solid. It's hard to seed this
tourney because there is parity across the board this year.
1 Alpha Cobra Squadron
2 Hooray
3 Mischief
4 Amp
5 Flycoons
6 D'oh
7 Shazam Remains
8 Chewbacca Defense
9 Barrio
10 Peppermint Bon Bon
11 Quiet Coyote
12 Bucket
13 Slow White
14 Cougars (not a lot of stuff to go on. 2 out of SW)
15 Puppet Regime
16 Guillermo y Compania
-Matty
spa...@yahoo.com
>
> - Show quoted text -
Sounds like a plan. We'll just have to go through you. Barrio should
be higher then 9 though.
Looking forward to it brother.
JB
Knappy
Here is what I posted in a separate thread, but I realized (after I
posted it) that Shazam had win over barrio so moved them up......Amp
could also go as high as 3 w/H2H win over Mischief & semis finish in
07 & finalist/champ at every major tournament on East coast this year.
(I am on Amp.)
*losses refer to "losses to other teams going to Sarasota"
(1) Alpha Cobra Squadron -- C1 (1-0 vs Mischief, only losses to
Barrio, Doh, Shazam, won Heavyweights. Higher RRI than Hooray,
CLX core has pedigree of success in Sarasota)
(2) Hooray-- MA1 (1-0 vs Mischief, won Chesapeake, decisive wins vs
Amp)
(3) Mischief-- NW1 (awesome run at Labor Day, NW regionals)
(4) Flycoons NW2 (1-0 vs Barrio, only losses to NW teams & Alpha*)
(5) Amp --MA2 (wins @ boston, philly, finalist @chesapeak, only
losses
to Hooray*)
(6) D'oh NW3 (wow. results say they must be really, really good)
(7) Shazam NW4 (h2h vs Barrio--I could see George ranking them at 9,
too, due to regional finish)
(8) Barrio SW1 (won region, 2007 qtrs, losses to NW teams, 1-0 vs
Alpha)
(9)Chewbacca D S1 (semis at Philly, finals at labor day)
(10) Peppermint Bon Bon C2 (could switch w/QC)
(11) Quiet Coyote NE1 (bracket buster)
(12) Bucket S2 (1-0 vs Slow)
(13) Slow White NE2 (long record of success)
(14) Cougars SW2 (limited results, but close games against Barrio)
(15) Puppet Regime NE3 (could be higher? strong early season results)
(16) Guillermo S3 (I only know what I see on their web site)
Pools (look pretty balanced, diversified)
(1) Alpha-C, (8) Barrio-SW, (9) chewy-S, (16) Guillermo-S
(2) Hooray-MA, (7)Shazam-NW, (10) Peppermint-C, (15) Puppet-NE
(3) mischief -NW, (6) D'oh-NW, (11) Quiet Coyote--NE, (14) Cougars--
SW
(4) Flycoons-NW, (5) Amp-MA, (12) Bucket--S, (13) Slow--NE
spa...@yahoo.com
>
> - Show quoted text -
Would it change y'all's mind any if the Cougars promised to practice
once before nationals?
sra...@gmail.com
Any other non-practicing teams out there? I know ACS and PBB don't,
apparently Cougars don't.
Anthony...@gmail.com
Our seeding did not rest entirely dependant on upsets at various other
regionals. If shazam and D'oh had won NW, and Slow white had won the
NE, ACS would have probably been arguing for the 5 spot at best.
(possibly lower when you enter Barrio into the discussion.) [shazam,
doh, slow, Hooray, Amp, Barrio] would have valid claims to being
seeded higher then them.
In that hypo, Hooray would still have a very good argument for the 1
seed. True if shazam won they would get it since they are defending
champs, but Hooray at least had a claim to the spot. Without a H2H
disadvantage to anyone in the country, the luck of ACS to have other
regions finish as is most suitable to their seed should not catapult
them past Hooray.
However, The regionals tourneys did flesh out how they did. I have no
doubt ACS is a great team by virtue of their H2H over other Top seeds
(Mischief & Flycoons), and winning their region. However based on the
above, I think Hooray should be seeded above them.
*** Obviously, utilizing hypotheticals are typically weak arguments
because of the unlimited potential for possibilities. However since I
am only discussing these two teams, and they were on "byes", it seems
illogical to change the relative seeding based upon nothing that ACS
or Hooray had done themselves, and the hypothetical helped to clarify
the point. Now we wont need to waste time proposing the simple counter-
argument to "what if....."
Becky
- Hooray lost to Mischief 9-15, while ACS beat Mischief 12-11
- Hooray beat common opponent One Trick Pony 12-11, while ACS beat One
Trick Pony 14-9
- Hooray's RRI is 2581, while ACS's RRI is 2643
So, wait a minute....seeding Hooray above ACS really DOESN'T make much
sense.
Anthony...@gmail.com
Anthony...@gmail.com
Anthony...@gmail.com
Knappy
The problem with this chart is that the 4 NW teams are a combined 2-4
vs Alpha, Amp & Hooray, and the NW 1 seed is 0-3 vs those teams. I
don't see how they could be the 1-4 seeds, that seems to be ignoring
2008 results & 2007 finish (2 NW teams in semis.)
Hooray has added significant talent since their strong performance at
Boston (Schmucker, Walters, others), where they beat Mischief 15-9.
Alpha beat both the NW1 & NW2 seeds, and went 5-3 on NW turf in
August. No other losses all season.
Barrio should probably be higher in all these scenarios. I think
everyone who saw them this year or last knows they are a top team.
Unfortunately, their Spawnfest performance (& especially loss to
Shazam) kind of forces them lower than they should be.
No doubt that the NW teams deserve high seeds, and will likely all be
in top 10, maybe all in top 7.
Lots of great teams this year. Should be fun.
On Oct 13, 1:09 pm, DK21 <DaveKl...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's a fun idea, based on this chart,http://upa.org/scores/scores.cgi?div=68&page=3&tourn=5219,
> and adjusting for regional finishes and a few head-to-heads. It is
> perhaps too dependant on RRI (which isn't UPA run and thus probably
> something), but it produces pools that look as fun for all. Lots of
> parity this year.
>
> 1. Mischief - stealing the Flycoon's 1 seed.
> 2. Flycoons - stealing D'oh's 2 seed.
> 3. D’oh - falling to Mischief's 3 seed.
> 4. Shazam Remains - keeping their 4 seed.
> 5. Alpha Cobra Squadron - keeping their 5 seed.
> 6. Hooray - They can just pretend that they are really the 3 seed and
> D'oh is the 6 seed.
> 7. Amp - keeping their 7 seed.
> 8. Barrio - Stealing Bon-Bon's 8 seed for beating Alpha Cobra.
> 9. Chewbacca Defense - Stealing Bon-Bon's 9 seed for being South
> Champ's.
> 10. Peppermint Bon-Bon - Dropping a few seeds, just for fun.
> 11. Cougars - falling to Barrio's 11 seed.
> 12. Quiet Coyote - keeping their 12 seed.
> 13. Bucket - taking Slow's 13 seed.
> 14. Slow White - falling to Puppet's 14 seed.
> 15. Puppet Regime - falling to Bucket's 15 seed.
> 16. Guillermo Y Compania - standing strong at 16.
>
> Yielding Pools:
> A: (1) Mischief, (8) Chewbacca Defense, (9) Barrio, (16) Guillermo Y
> Compania
> B: (2) Flycoons, (7) Amp, (10) Peppermint Bon-Bon, (15) Puppet Regime
> C: (3) D'oh, (6) Hooray, (11) Cougars, (14) Slow White
> D: (4) Shazam Remains, (5) Alpha Cobra Squadron, (12) Quiet Coyote,
> (14) Bucket
>
> Advantages:
> -NW is split into the 4 pools. The only regional rematch is Chewie-
> Guillermo in pool A - though they only met once this season (perhaps
> Puppet and Guillermo could swap seeds to avoid?).
> -Alpha, Hooray, Amp, and Barrio all have arguments to be above a NW
> team (or other high seeded-team), so they are each in a pool with 1 NW
> team. Seems fair.
>
> Disadvantages:
> -Mostly based on some chart I found somewhere.
> -I failed to put much thought into this, even though I'm 100%
> absolutely sure I'm correct.
>
> Alternatives:
> -Draw from a hat and stop pretending any seeding will be fair this
> year.
> -Thank George for his hard work and expect that he will spend many
> long hours torturing himself over the right decision, get off RSD, and
> start practicing (or actively continue not practicing out of
> principle).
claytona...@gmail.com
mostly just stay within? I honestly don't know.
Clay
> > principle).- Hide quoted text -
doyle
They let a few teams out of region come east (mischief, TFP, Bucket,
Chewebacca) and played some NE teams throughout the season but never
traveled outside the NE or MA to play.
http://upa.org/scores/scores.cgi?div=71&page=3&team=2538
Chris
Mischief #3
Knappy
Philly, Chesapeake, did not attend Heavyweights or Spawnfest). Same
with Amp. With the exception of Slow who attended 4 of the big 5, 2-3
seemed to be about what the established "top" teams were willing to
do.
The quality of these 3 tournaments in successive months (June, July,
August) was amazing. Spawnfest (in my opinion, the tournament most "on
par" with these other 4) was the week after Chesapeake. Would you
expect an East coast team to choose that over a similar quality
tournament in their own backyard?
(I did not include Labor Day, because it did not have the same # of
top mixed teams as the other tournaments---quick analysis below---
please feel free to correct any mistakes)
Boston -- 5 UCC qualifiers plus TFP (world champs) & GB (out of 8
teams)
Philly --- 6 UCC qualifiers (out of 12)
Chesapeake -- 5 UCC qualifiers (out of 8)
Spawnfest -- 6 UCC qualifiers (out of 8)
Heavyweights --- 5 UCC qualifiers (out of 20)
***
Labor Day -- 2 UCC qualifiers (out of 8)
> > mostly just stay within? I honestly don't know.- Hide quoted text -
ultimatep...@gmail.com
> Hooray has added significant talent since their strong performance at
> Boston (Schmucker, Walters, others), where they beat Mischief 15-9.
while the boston invite is a good tourney, i wouldn't call a 3-4
record a strong performance unless you were recently a second tier
team. haha, i'm just kidding of course (16th place at natties two
years ago).
Anthony...@gmail.com
noting how well the MA has performed this year....very statistically
inter-regionally stong.(ly?)
Of the teams at Nationals...here are the records against each other.
MA - 18-8 (12-2 not including intra-region results) (0.857%)
NW - 21-17 (9-5) (0.643%)
C - 8-6 (5-3) (0.625%)
S - 6-12 (3-5) (0.375%)
SW - 2-5 (1-4) (0.200%)
NE 10-23 (2-15) (0.118%)
Knappy
they beat Mischief by 6.
my bad.
ultimatep...@gmail.com
it makes me want to shut up.
that's just awful.
benwa...@gmail.com
> 1 -Hooray (MA#1)– (1-0 v mischief; 1-0 v Chewbacca; Finished higher
> then quiet coyote at philly invite; higher RRI then Barrio)
> 2 - Mischief (NW#1)– won toughest region
> 3 - Alpha Cobra Squadron (Cn #1) – (2-0 v Flycoons)
> 4 - Flycoons (NW#2) –
> 5 - Amp (MA#2) – (semi’s last year; only losing record to hooray)
> 6 - D’oh (NW#3) – (higher finish then shazam)
> 7 – Shazam Remains (NW #4)(1-0 v Barrio, stronger season then
> chewbacca, quiet coyote)
> 8 – Barrio (SW #1)(coin toss between barrio and PBB)
> 9 – Peppermint Bon Bon (CN #2)(can be switched with barrio but 8-9
> still the same pool)
> 10 – Quiet Coyote (NE #1) (great regionals, but to put Slow white too
> low would be a mistake, therefore they gotta fall in here)
> 11 – Chewbacca Defense (S #1)(1-0 against Slow)
> 12 – Slow White (NE#2)(Finalist last year)
> 13 – Cougars (SW#2) (could be 13 or 14)
> 14 – Puppet Regime (NE#3)
> 15 – Bucket (S#2)(gotta be above Guillermo)
> 16 – Guillermo Y Compania (S#3)
>
> GIving us the following pools:
>
> Hooray Mischief Alpha Flycoons
> Barrio Shazam D’oh Amp
> PBB Quiet Chewie Slow
> Guillermo Bucket Puppet Cougars
>
> Disclaimer: I play for Hooray.
>
> -Tony
where's ah fudge?
TrackStar
This year is definitely going to be a tough year to seed with all the
parity. However, I mainly focused on the top quarter just to see if
it makes any sense:
1. There should be at least 2 NW teams in the top 4. I don't think
anyone can really argue that.
2. ACS and Hooray, with wins Mischief, should be in the top 4. Yes,
I realize ACS lost to the rest of the NW at Spawnfest.
3. Given the Mischief won the NW, they have to be above all the rest
of the NW
So with that in mind, here's my top 4:
1. Hooray (beat Mischief by more that ACS did) Yes, I realize both
teams have changed since then, but if the season is going to count at
all then you have to take a loss as a loss.
2. ACS. Beat Mischief by less than Hooray, and they did lose to the
rest of the NW. However, I'm willing to accept that it was a very
stacked tournament, and will count the win over Mischief more because
it was at the beginning of the day and not after one team played a
tough battle and the other had a bye.
3. Mischief. We all know they're good, but they did lose to the 2
teams above them. And they have to be the top seed in the NW
4. Flycoons. Here is the nod to the NW being the toughest region.
Again, these rankings take the season into account, but not more than
the Regionals results. ACS can arguably be dropped, but since Hooray
didn't play any other NW there really is no argument for them to be
moved except for "well IF they would have played so-and-so...". Let's
be fair, RRI is a joke, so I'm not taking that into account at all.
Also, this does increase the chances of the NW having regional
rematches and I'm okay with that. For one, I'm pretty sure the rest
of the NW would love another shot at Mischief, and also with 4 teams
in you can't really expect them to not meet. And no, I don't think
they are the top 4 teams in the country and semis will be a NW sweep.
If I did, then obviously these rankings would change and they'd all be
in different pools.
left...@hotmail.com
> I'm pretty sure the rest of the NW would love another shot at Mischief,
> and also with 4 teams in you can't really expect them to not meet.
D'oh and Mischief didn't play at Regionals, no rematch if they're in
the same pool
kevin...@hotmail.com
repeatedly ignored in these discussions, whereas ACS's losses to
Shazam, D'Oh, and Barrio are brought up as a reason to move them down.
In addition, why extract a single score from Hooray's performance at
Boston Invite, a 15-9 victory over Mischief, and ignore the rest of
the results? Hooray finished 3-4, in sixth place, with a loss to
Puppet Regime, whereas Mischief's record was 4-3 if I remember
correctly and finished third. Just taking a single score from that
tournament does not tell the whole story.
A Hooray player argued that ACS was the beneficiary of "wacky"
regionals results and are seeded high off of other's team play, yet
they have AMP's finish last year at nationals (historical data) to
their credit to start them off as high as they are.
There seems to be no clear #1 seed, although Mischief, ACS, and Hooray
seem to have the best claims to the spot over Barrio (too many NW
losses), Quiet Coyote (loss to ACS), and Chewbacca Defense (losses to
Mischief and Hooray), the other regionals winners.
Mischief's record against nationals qualifiers was 7-5 (losses to ACS,
Flycoons, D'Oh, AMP, and Hooray). Also, a loss to TFP at Boston. No
losses to teams not attending nationals. Five losses spread over two
tournaments.
ACS was 7-3 against qualifiers (losses to D'Oh, Shazam, and Barrio).
No other losses. Losses confined to Saturday at Spawnfest.
Hooray was 10-4 against qualifiers (losses to Puppet Regime, AMP, Slow
White, and AMP again). Also, a loss to TFP and Great Britian at
Boston. Also, a loss to a non-qualifying team at Chesapeake. Losses
spread over three tournaments.
These results may be why the RRI values are where they are at, but I'm
not sure, I've never studied RRI theory, nor care to, it's just
something to look at and see if your team is ranked high. I'm
skeptical as to how useful the RRIs are, but I wouldn't consider them
a joke. They tend to get used a "use them as argument if you are
ahead and disregard them as a joke if they don't help you" kind of
tool.
If you look at the whole story and not just ACS victory over Mischief
and Hooray victory over Mischief, then the teams are nearly
indistinguishable.
My opinion is that Mischief should actually get the #1 seed. They may
have the most losses of the three teams, but they are the NW champions
and their losses are confined to teams that will probably all be
seeded in the top 6 or 7. I hate the historical data argument, but
can anybody remember the last time there wasn't a mixed NW champion?
My #2 seed would be ACS. Fewer losses, but fewer victories against
nationals qualifying teams than Hooray. While ACS may have lost to
NW3, NW4, and SW1, they also beat NW1, NW2 (twice), NE1, and CN2
(three times). Hooray lost to MA2 (twice), NE2, and NE3, in addition
to a non-qualifying team (C'Ville). They beat, if I remember correcty
S2 (twice), S1, MA2 (three times), NW1, NE2 (twice), NE3.
In the absence of head-to-head matchup between ACS and Hooray you are
left with records against nationals qualifiers that seem similar with
a similar win percentage and common opponent victories over Mischief
and One Trick Pony. Both teams beat two other regionals winners.
Both teams beat a strong regional 2nd place team twice in Flycoons and
AMP. ACS did beat NE1 Quiet Coyote, whereas Hooray has victories and
losses to NE2 Slow White and NE3 Puppet Regime, neither of whom are
expected to be seeded high. ACS finished higher than both NE2 and NE3
at a common tournament, CHCs in Chicago, without playing either. ACS
has been more consistent (all losses at one tournament), but have
attended one fewer "elite" tournament than Hooray.
Just can't see why Hooray thinks they are entitled to the #1 spot, nor
why Mischief seems automatically thrown into the 3 spot. I especially
liked the comment that they had an argument even if Shazam won NW
regionals. That makes me chuckle.
Kevin Seiler
I play for ACS
brand...@gmail.com
Maybe, just maybe, the MA has 3 or 4 of the stronger teams out there,
which is why most of Hooray and AMP's losses have come to just those
teams. Just saying, stop hating on the MA, EAST COAST!!
Brando
ultimatep...@gmail.com
with most of it.
>
> Maybe, just maybe, the MA has 3 or 4 of the stronger teams out there,
> which is why most of Hooray and AMP's losses have come to just those
> teams. Just saying, stop hating on the MA, EAST COAST!!
>
> Brando
That would be going against historical precedent - that's why the rest
of us are skeptical.
Here's MA history:
last year: tied for 3rd, and 13th or something
the year before: 5th and 16th = hooray
the year before that: 8th and some low seed
the year before that: 8th and 11th
the year before that: tied for 3rd and 8th.
which leaves us with the presumption that the MA doesn't have 3 or 4
of the stronger teams out there recently, much less 2. but despite
this, we've all been giving the MA the benefit of the doubt this year,
allowing them two quarters spots despite the second team being out of
the running for the last couple of years.
kevin...@hotmail.com
> Maybe, just maybe, the MA has 3 or 4 of the stronger teams out there,
> which is why most of Hooray and AMP's losses have come to just those
> teams. Just saying, stop hating on the MA, EAST COAST!!
>
>
> - Show quoted text -
It's a decent maybe, but looking at the season's results for Olio and
Dumpsterfire, it doesn't suggest strength. In fact, One Trick Pony,
the third place finisher out of the central region, finished
comparable, albeit below the third place finisher from the MA, Axis of
C'Ville, with C'Ville winning the 5/6 game over OTP. So, maybe, just
maybe, the CN also has 3 or 4 of the stronger teams out there, but ACS
didn't lose to any of them. Note: I'm not claiming the CN has 3 or 4
of the strongest teams out there, probably 3 or 4 in the top 25, just
as most regions. I suppose it depends on your definition of
"strongest". I'm not discounting Quiet Coyote, Slow White, or Puppet,
but their results don't exactly portray strength, and I believe
somebody wrote earlier that the NE is 2-15 against out of region
nationals qualifiers? That is not exactly good, and they were 0-6
against non-MA teams, 2-9 against MA teams.
I have no doubt the two MA teams are strong, but I don't see anything
in the historical data nor this season's results that suggests an MA
#1 seed.
slang
I guess the MA just has to prove it in a few weeks, along with
everyone else.
benwa...@gmail.com
what about the year after that? huh?
Johnny O
This needs to be noted as an aside but shouldn't be taken an excuse as
a loss is a loss. Flycoons lost to ACS at universe point @
Spawnfest...it was a good game and ACS won. The placement games that
were supposed to be played @ Spawnfest were canceled (Shazam/D'oh for
the 1/2, ACS/Flycoons for the 3/4, and so on) but the tourney director
said we could still play anyway if we wanted. Both teams struggled to
find 7 who wanted to play as the wind, rain and cold were all
horrific...not sure about ACS but most of the top line Flycoons
players boycotted after the decision to play. I can't even remember
the score of the second game except that ACS won by a fair margin. I
do remember many of the ACS players were huddled under the pavilion
heckling their teammates and most of the Flycoons were under the tarp
three fields away trying to keep the elements at bay. Flycoons maybe
had 8 or 9 people that played and not sure about ACS All other
tourney players and people, save for the poor bastards assigned the
job of cleanup, abandoned the fields. I was one of the Flycoons who
voted to play the game and will freely admit I regretted it from the
moment the game started...I could just tell nobody really wanted to
play and it wasn't being taken seriously by our team, almost all of
whom had a long drive of 11-12 hours ahead to get home (Missoula has
loads of advantages but air fares are not one).
Now a loss is still a loss but this is about the 5th time I've seen
this and feel it deserved an asterisk.
Johnny O
sorry, forgot to sign my post
Johnny O
MTF #15
gabe...@gmail.com
and that looked like possibly the worse game of Ultimate I have ever
seen. Except some dude from ACS was calling fouls and picks as if it
was the game to go.
This loss should be discounted.
Gabe
D'oh! #20
> MTF #15- Hide quoted text -
ultimatep...@gmail.com
> what about the year after that? huh?
semis, 9th or 10th. that's what.
John....@gmail.com
have lived your entire life in such an ultimate utopia. Come by my
intramural fields sometime. As far as who beat who , conjecturing of
what region is stronger (c'mon, you know its the NW), excuses why you
didn't try in some game, I don't care if you seed me first or
fifteenth. Seeding won't change how I play and what the team goal is.
You still have to beat the best teams in the nation to win it all.
Play on the field is what will decide the final seedings.
-/\/\isra
ACS #7
Pat Niles
> > I have to ask why Hooray's losses to Slow White and Puppet Regime are
> > repeatedly ignored in these discussions, whereas ACS's losses to
> > Shazam, D'Oh, and Barrio are brought up as a reason to move them down.
Mischief's performances, losses in particular, should not be
overlooked either. They did win the region that most consider to be
the strongest, but looking at the season as a whole, Mischief doesn't
appear to be the 1 seed. Mischief had some big losses to AMP (8-15)
and Hooray (9-15) at Boston. These were on the opposite side of the
country against teams that were within their region, so they can be
viewed how you see fit. Mischief also lost to Flycoons (7-15) pretty
handily at Spawnfest, a bit closer to their home region. ACS beat the
Flycoons the day before at this tournament.
> > In addition, why extract a single score from Hooray's performance at
> > Boston Invite, a 15-9 victory over Mischief, and ignore the rest of
> > the results? Hooray finished 3-4, in sixth place, with a loss to
> > Puppet Regime, whereas Mischief's record was 4-3 if I remember
> > correctly and finished third. Just taking a single score from that
> > tournament does not tell the whole story.
You can look at the Hooray vs Mischief and the ACS vs Mischief results
in a few ways. Yes, a 15-9 result over Mischief looks good, until you
take the whole story into account. It was Mischief's first game,
after flying cross country, against Hooray who already had a game to
warm up. It is a different story than seeing a team in the middle of
a tournament regardless of how far each team had to travel.
> > My opinion is that Mischief should actually get the #1 seed. They may
> > have the most losses of the three teams, but they are the NW champions
> > and their losses are confined to teams that will probably all be
> > seeded in the top 6 or 7.
I still think it's a toss up between Mischief and ACS. ACS's losses
are confined to 3 losses in the top 8 at nationals. I guess it
depends on what has more leverage, a 9-15 loss against AMP (MA2,
likely 7 seed) or a 12-14 loss against Barrio (SW1, likely 8 seed)?
> Both teams struggled to find 7 who wanted to play as the wind, rain and cold
> were all horrific...not sure about ACS but most of the top line Flycoons
> players boycotted after the decision to play... I
> do remember many of the ACS players were huddled under the pavilion
> heckling their teammates and most of the Flycoons were under the tarp
> three fields away trying to keep the elements at bay.
What if wind, rain and cold are present in Sarasota? Maybe this gives
a nod to ACS for being able to field a team and play in less than
perfect conditions instead of taking off like the other six Spawnfest
elite teams.... Actually I agree that this game should be
"discounted". The conditions were horrible and I'm sure the players
that were on the field, (and not huddling under the pavilion) can all
agree to describe the game as absolutely miserable. It wasn't nearly
as bad as Bozofest 2006 though....
However the seedings turn out, it'll be a good time in Sarasota. I
got my 2 cents in, I'm done.
Pat
ACS
Jay Schulkin
preposterous. All the arguments have been about seeding teams based
on head to head, but at the top of the division, overall excellence
should be the most important factor.
Keegan
screw it, give smartwhores the #1 seed. afterall, they deserve it...
Smellsworth
> A Hooray player argued that ACS was the beneficiary of "wacky"
> regionals results and are seeded high off of other's team play, yet
> they have AMP's finish last year at nationals (historical data) to
> their credit to start them off as high as they are.
I have never benefitted from a "wacky" regionals result. "Zany"
maybe, but "wacky", never.
Smellsworth
>
> http://www.upa.org/scores/scores.cgi?div=68&page=7
Does anyone else think that the number 1 seed should also get the
right to be in a play-in game for Conference 1? I am sick and tired
of Cultimate exlcuding mixed club teams from open college ultimate.
Alex Morrone
leatherbound book detailing the plans for C1
John....@gmail.com
> Cultimate killed my puppies and then used their skins to make a
> leatherbound book detailing the plans for C1
Does the C in C1 stand for Cruella?
lars...@gmail.com
Are people campaigning for the #1 seed because they want easier games
on Thursday or is it just a pride thing...or both? I'm pretty sure
the better team will just Nut Up and win regardless of seed. I can
understand that if you get easier games on Thursday, your team should
be more rested for the remaining games. In my experience, the teams
that complain the most about seedings, usually need help from the TD
to advance far on saturday. Good example would be abusement park at
central regionals this year.
I do wish that we could get some more clever smack talk between teams
though, instead of just debating seeds. We need some hostility for
the mixed division.
Bribri #00
PBB
Mike Miller
> Cultimate killed my puppies and then used their skins to make a
> leatherbound book detailing the plans for C1
Alex - you are missing practice this week for your actuary exams...
but instead of studying you're posting on RSD. So... RSD > actuary
exams > practice. Way to get those priorities straight.
And, just to add to the thread - I think Soy Nuts should be seeded
first. Sully will back me up.
Miller
Pippin
seedings I have some questions about some of the placement of the
"bottom half teams."
Despite having a less than wonderful regionals Puppet Regime being
seeded 15th by most accounts seems too low. I understand that the 3rd
team coming out of a seemingly weaker region could easily fall this
low but looking at a few of the teams often listed above Puppet makes
me wonder if that seeding would be correct.
Puppet has wins over 3 teams attending Nationals (4 wins total) and
wins over TFP and the Great Britian Team. This equals 6 quality wins.
Some teams being seeded above Puppet have less quality wins:
Cougars: 0 quality Wins. Sure you can say they played Barrio tight
(and for the record with a few people vouching for them I am sure
Barrio is good/better than their record may indicate (although their
record against top teams is just fair but Spawnfest was one good team
after another)) but you can make that argument for any team. Puppet
for example had two loses against Hooray decided by a total of three
points. And Hooray is better than Barrio (results would indicate).
The fact remains no wins againt any team attending Nationals
Bucket: 3 wins against teams at Nationals two of them being against
the (most likely) 16th seeded Guillermo Y Compania. They even have a
loss against Guill Y Comp.
Peppermin BonBon: People seem to have them locked in at the 9 seed.
WHY? they have one 1 point win against Slow and that is the only win
they have against teams at Nationals. It is true that they barely
lost any games to teams not at the championships, but the same can be
said of almost every team in attendance. This team has a decent RRI
(still lower than Puppets) and appears to be good at beating "lesser"
teams but again only 1 quality win. They should not be rewarded
because the only teams they lost to were ACS and OTP, they didnt play
that many hard games. I am not saying this team is not good I just
don't see why they deserve such a high seed.
In my opinion I would seed the lower half as follows:
9. Chewbacca Defense
10. Quiet Coyote
11. Slow White
12/13. Puppet Regime
12/13.Peppermint Bon Bon
14.Cougars
15. Bucket
16. Guillermo Y Compania
* Peppermint could, in my opinion go 11th, but then Slow and Puppet
would be playing again...i think that would be the 4th time this
season so I moved Peppermint down to 12/13 which makes no differnece
because you play the same teams in that pool anyway.
Perosnally I have liked the way some of the previously posted pools
have turned out and would love some of the matchups (peronally I am
tired of playing Slow and Quiet...i even ended up playing quiet at
ommegang) so the pools that had us playing teams from all over the
country seemed awesome to me. This was strictly about the seeding.
Either way many of the teams can win big games at any time. I was
just upset about the lack of NY love.
Excited about my first trip to Nationals,
-Pippin
Puppet Regime #17
Smellsworth
> I do wish that we could get some more clever smack talk between teams
> though, instead of just debating seeds. We need some hostility for
> the mixed division.
>
> Bribri #00
> PBB
Fuck Peppermint Bon Bon with a candy cane. Is that clever Bri Bri?
Alex Peters
> Despite having a less than wonderful regionals Puppet Regime being
> seeded 15th by most accounts seems too low. I understand that the 3rd
> team coming out of a seemingly weaker region could easily fall this
> low but looking at a few of the teams often listed above Puppet makes
> me wonder if that seeding would be correct.
I think Puppet would be a very dangerous 15 seed, but I don't see a
lot of argument to bring them up much. Puppet has more losses to
other national teams (8) than any other team except Slow White (9),
but has to be below Slow White. Both Bucket and Peppermint Bon Bon
have beaten Slow White, so why should they not be above Slow, and by
extension above Puppet? The only argument there is previous year
results. As for the Cougars, you have to decide how a very small
sample size with only 1 close loss to a good team matches up with a
large sample size showing 8 losses. As a barometer, last year, having
managed to play zero teams that qualified for nationals, Barrio was
seeded 10th and the second place from the region (Bad Larry) 11th.
Joe's Brother
post? That person and their team must be fucking stupid.
- Joe's Brother
Captain, ACS
Handy
Pippin, at Nationals, please don't freak out and attack anyone, even
if they're a jackass who pushes you over on the mark.
Love,
Handy
doyle
compared to historical results. The problem is, PBB has a better RACO
than QC and is 1-0 vs. Slow White. That makes it hard to move those
two above. It seems like the results go counter to the expected
strength of the region given at least the NE #1 finishing spot for the
last couple years.
I don't think puppet will be seeded lower than 14th and would have an
argument to be above Bucket (along with Cougars and GYC) if it weren't
for their RACO vs. QC. I think the bottom four seeds should probably
be 13 - puppet, 14 - Bucket, 15 - Cougars, 16 - GYC.
On Oct 16, 3:47 pm, Pippin <Aulett...@gmail.com> wrote:
Yugo
>
> - Show quoted text -
Since there's no way to objectively measure how good the Cougars are
with their lack of results, I won't try to argue that they deserve
higher than a 13 or 14 seed. But having played Chewbacca Defense at
Labor Day and the Cougars at Regionals, I will say that if anything,
the Cougars looked like the better team. So assuming they send all
their players, whoever gets them as the low seed in their pool is
going to have a serious game on their hands.
Yugo
#23 LA Metro
ultimatep...@gmail.com
> Are people campaigning for the #1 seed because they want easier games
> on Thursday or is it just a pride thing...or both? I'm pretty sure
> the better team will just Nut Up and win regardless of seed. I can
> understand that if you get easier games on Thursday, your team should
> be more rested for the remaining games.
>
> PBB
i think we're just struggling with who _should_ get it,
although, if you were talking about the difference between
(8)Barrio and (9)Chewbacca in your pool vs. (7)Shazam and
(10)PBB in your pool, i think i'd go with the former.
In most years, I think there's enough drop off at 6-8 that
1 and 2 don't matter that much. this year, things seem
a little more even at that level, and maybe even from
1-9.
And yet, I'd prefer NOT to have shazam in my pool
as a 2 seed, (shazam is MORE likely to take
the pool coming up then taking the pool coming in as
the 1 seed).
maybe PBB is better than ICE, but ICE wasn't a
big deal at the three seed in the pool. maybe CD
is better than last year, but getting last year's 14th seed
as the third seed in your pool is pretty decent. so
those third seeds are a wash.
i wouldn't want d'oh as a second seed either, so the
difference between 1 and 3 matters too.not that i'd want
amp as a second seed, should that happen. so yes,
1 seed = good. as long as shazam isn't talked down
to the 8. if that's the case, it's just a crapshoot anyway.
spa...@yahoo.com
>
> - Show quoted text -
The Cougars accept this compliment graciously. Yet feel that as the
ONLY coed, nationals team to apparently not have played another
nationals qualifier (excepting Barrio) we should accept the 16 seed as
our lot in life for having opted not to travel.
Our lack of experience relegates us to the basement.
Be prepared for a good cheer.
JB
ultimatep...@gmail.com
the NE YOY does look funny. For three teams that
placed above Bashing and Tandem (8th and 11th
last year) at NE regionals, seeding all three NE
teams below the NE second place team's final
placement last year seems like trouble. I'd be
surprised if the other regions really got that much
stronger (or the NE that much weaker).