"Frampy" <
fram...@hotmail.com> wrote:
> A pitch generally gets worse/harder to bat on as a game goes on.
> Maybe someone can posts stats on how often a captain winning the toss
> bats first. So your best chance to score runs is by batting first, if
> a team in innings #2 gets beyond 200 of the first batting team it
> makes some sort of sense that they could enforce a reverse follow on.
In Test matches the captain winning the toss decided to bat in 1492
matches (73%) and invited the opposition to bat in 537 matches (26%).
Teams were only put in to bat 27 times before WW2 (out of 274 Tests,
9.8%)), and 19 times between 1946 & 1959 (209 - 9.1%).
In each decade since:
1960s 30 (186 - 16.1%)
1970s 45 (199 - 22.6%)
1980s 109 (266 - 40.8%)
1990s 119 (347 - 34.3%)
2000s 155 (464 - 33.4%)
2009+ 33 (84 - 39.3%)
Picking up on the 'best chance to score runs batting first' - that
has been true in 53% of Tests. That is, the team batting 2nd failed
to overhaul the 1st inns total. Of course it depends on the
opposition - if England bat first against Bangladesh the expectation
would be that England score a lot and Bangladesh don't. If the inns
are reversed the same logic applies, Bangladesh don't score many
batting 1st, but England do so batting 2nd. If we accept that logic,
an England captain winning the toss will most likely insert Bangladesh,
in anticipation of an inns. win in a shorter time. Generally speaking
captains prefer to have a target to chase rather than deciding on what
target to set.