Prelude to Game 5: Lakers @ Indiana

[WhoWins]

During Game 4, the Pacers at home opened up a 10-point
lead over the Lakers after 1Q. In all best-of-7 NBA playoff
games from 1947 through 1999, the game record of home
teams with 10-point leads after 1Q was 33-8 (.805). As such,
the historical odds against the Lakers winning Game 4 after
1Q were slightly over 4 out of 5.

Historical performance of NBA teams playing Game 1 at home
and leading a series 3-1 (e.g., Los Angeles Lakers), 1947-
1999 best-of-7 series:
series record, all rounds: 88-2 (.978)
series record, Finals only: 18-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all rounds: 64-26 (.711)
Game 5 record, Finals only: 10-8 (.556)

Of the ninety NBA series to reach this point, the two comebacks
were staged by the '68 Celtics in the Semis (vs. Phil.) and the
'95 Rockets in the Qtrs (vs. Phoenix). That '95 Houston-Phoenix
series was identical to the 2000 Finals in that Phoenix also won
Games 1 and 2 at home, dropped Game 3 on the road, and won
Game 4 on the road. In the NBA Finals, the home team in Game
5 has a record of 168-65 (.721) irrespective of outcomes in the
previous four games.

During Game 5 tonight, the www.whowins.com site will be updated
after each quarter to provide historical victory probabilities, based
on size of quarter-end lead, who (road or home team) has it, and
the 1533 best-of-7 NBA playoff games from 1947 through 1999.