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Handicapping the new NBA television rights deals
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TMC
May 14, 2013, 6:17:32 PM5/14/13
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http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/may/handicapping-the-new-nba-tv-rights-deals.html
Written by Ken Fang on Tuesday, 14 May 2013 11:18.
In this week's edition of Sports Business Journal, John Ourand and
John Lombardo report that the NBA wants to begin talks this summer
with its two TV partners, ESPN and Turner Sports about new deals. Now
the two deals with the incumbents expire after the 2015-16 season, but
the NBA wants to strike while the iron is still hot. Knowing that
Major League Baseball, the NFL and most of the major BCS college
conferences saw huge rights deals over the last few years, the NBA
wants to join in before the rights bubble bursts.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/05/13/Media/NBA-TV-rights.aspx
In addition, with an increased field of national cable sports
networks, the NBA knows there will be more interested parties in its
games than when the last TV contract was signed in 2007. ESPN has been
with the NBA since 2002 and Turner's partnership dates back to the
mid-1980's when the NBA was originally on TBS.
With the talks beginning this summer, the NBA hopes to have a new
contract in place by the time current NBA Commissioner David Stern
transitions to new Head Honcho Adam Silver next summer.
Like the NFL, the NBA saw record ratings in 2011-12, but a slight
decrease in the 2012-13 season. That will not temper the enthusiasm of
the bids for the NBA. As he leaves, Stern is hoping to at least double
the $930 million in rights fees the league receives from ESPN and
Turner. And you know neither company will allow one of their signature
sports properties go without a fight.
So with that, let's handicap the new rights deal and see where the
chips may fall.
INCUMBENTS
TURNER SPORTS
Turner is firmly entrenched with the NBA. As mentioned, this
partnership goes back to the 1984-85 season. The NBA began airing on
TNT in 1988 and has continued non-stop. Through the years, Turner's
relationship has expanded to running NBA Digital which includes
NBA.com, NBA Mobile and NBA TV. In addition, NBA TV is operated from
Turner Sports headquarters so it will take a huge bid from one of the
other cable sports networks to wrest this portion of the NBA contract
away.
Turner has given us the Emmy Award-winning Inside the NBA as well as
multi-Emmy Award winning studio analyst Charles Barkley. The NBA has
enjoyed its partnership with Turner and I don't think the league is
ready to give it up just yet. The only thing missing from the NBA on
TNT portfolio is the NBA Finals. Now that Turner has the NCAA Final
Four, perhaps the NBA will reward TNT by allowing the network to air
part or all of the Finals in the new contract. We'll see if it
happens. But even so, the NBA on TNT should continue in the next
contract and into the next decade.
ODDS: 5-2. Turner is a very strong candidate to renew.
ESPN/ABC
Disney has been a partner with the Association since the 2002-03
season. It seems every season, the network has been tweaking either
its game announcing or studio show in attempts to match or surpass
TNT. And while the Mike Breen-Jeff Van Gundy and Mike Tirico-Hubie
Brown teams are good, NBA Countdown seems to continually be in a state
of flux. No matter, people watch for the games and not the announcers.
When this current contract ends, the NBA will have been on ESPN and
ABC longer than when the games were on NBC. Just a little piece of
trivia for you.
ESPN has totally committed to the NBA through TV and radio. One would
expect that even if ESPN loses the TV contract, it would at least
remain on radio, however, basing on its MLB contract, the Worldwide
Leader would try to tie both TV and radio together as a way to
maintain its relationship.
Of the two TV contracts, this might be the most vulnerable, but it
will be hard to take this contract away.
ODDS: 3-1. ESPN loves its NBA and an outside party will have to really
pony up to lure the NBA away from the Bristol Bill Simmonses.
POTENTIAL SUITORS
CBS/CBS SPORTS NETWORK
CBS aired the NBA from 1973-74 through the 1989-90 season and some old
school fans wish the games were back there. To be honest, the NBA on
CBS theme is probably the second best in history.
CBS Sports seems to shut down after The Masters into August, but it
seems to be content to stay pat with its current lineup of the NFL,
SEC football, NCAA Tournament and the PGA. One would think CBS would
want some inventory for CBS Sports Network which has Arena Football,
professional lacrosse, rodeo and various other niche sports during the
summer months, but it doesn't appear to be interested in regaining the
NBA.
There's the CBS/Turner consortium for the NCAA Tournament, but asides
from airing a Christmas Day game and with CBS' commitments to college
basketball and the PGA Tour, there isn't much room for more than four
or five regular season games and the Finals. Beyond that, CBS is not
seen as a full-fledged NBA media partner.
ODDS: 1,000-1. CBS is happy with its lineup and doesn't want to bid on
expensive sports properties except for the NFL and NCAA Tournament.
FOX/FOX SPORTS 1/FOX SPORTS 2
Fox and the new FS1/FS2 combo are going to add some spice to the
negotiations. If either ESPN or Turner decide to let their exclusive
negotating window with the NBA lapse, Fox is going to be ready with a
lot of cash to lure the Association into its fold. Fox Sports has not
aired the NBA in its history. While local Fox Sports Net affiliates
across the country have contracts with individual teams, one would
have to think that armed with two new national sports cable networks
ready to debut in August, what would be better than to have some NBA
games starting in 2016-17?
As it stands now, Fox Sports 1 has college basketball, NASCAR and some
UFC bouts for the winter months, but to sustain the networks, the NBA
would be ideal and a huge feather in the Fox cap.
Also, in its fall schedule, Fox announced "Fox Sports Saturday" in
primetime. For the upcoming season, this will be filled with college
football, college basketball, NASCAR, UFC and MLB. There's plenty of
room for some regular season NBA as well as playoff games and NBA
Final broadcasts.
The NBA has to be intrigued by having Fox as potential suitor.
ODDS: 8-1. If either ESPN or Turner fall, Fox is a huge favorite to
pick up the NBA.
NBC SPORTS GROUP
Yes, the NBA on NBC theme is remembered rather fondly by your humble
writer as well as many on the staff of Awful Announcing. After losing
the NBA in 2002, NBC tried to replace it with Arena Football
(remember?) and had to wait until the mid-aughts with the NHL. With
NBC firmly entrenched with the NHL and running the Stanley Cup
Playoffs in April through June concurrently with the NBA Postseason,
the NBA would want a network with those months free. Sure, NBC could
use CNBC for any conflicts as it does with the NHL now, but it would
be a big mess trying to find the games.
NBC would love to get the NBA away from ESPN, but one has to question
if it could make both the NBA and NHL happy. And the NHL left ESPN
after feeling jilted by the Worldwide Leader in favor of the
Association.
ODDS: 20-1. The NHL on NBC doesn't allow for much room for the NBA.
And finally, a dark horse.
beIN SPORT
Who? Yes, beIN Sport, a network that launched just last year in the
US, it's owned and operated by Al-Jazeera. While it has some soccer,
beIN wants to expand its portfolio and air a major US sports property.
Its distribution is rather sparse right now, but it has some deep
pockets. And before you laugh beIN Sport off, it already has a
relationship with the NBA in France so the league is quite familiar
with the network.
Let's be honest, the NBA won't be going there in the next contract,
but you'll be hearing more about beIN Sport in the years to come.
ODDS: 5,000 to 1. No shot right now, but it will be in the hunt in the
future.
So that's a quick look at the upcoming NBA rights talks. We'll find
out the winners in a year's time.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2013/02/an-early-look-at-nba-tv-rights-will-anybody-challenge-espn/
Written by Ken Fang on Tuesday, 14 May 2013 11:18.
In this week's edition of Sports Business Journal, John Ourand and
John Lombardo report that the NBA wants to begin talks this summer
with its two TV partners, ESPN and Turner Sports about new deals. Now
the two deals with the incumbents expire after the 2015-16 season, but
the NBA wants to strike while the iron is still hot. Knowing that
Major League Baseball, the NFL and most of the major BCS college
conferences saw huge rights deals over the last few years, the NBA
wants to join in before the rights bubble bursts.
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/05/13/Media/NBA-TV-rights.aspx
In addition, with an increased field of national cable sports
networks, the NBA knows there will be more interested parties in its
games than when the last TV contract was signed in 2007. ESPN has been
with the NBA since 2002 and Turner's partnership dates back to the
mid-1980's when the NBA was originally on TBS.
With the talks beginning this summer, the NBA hopes to have a new
contract in place by the time current NBA Commissioner David Stern
transitions to new Head Honcho Adam Silver next summer.
Like the NFL, the NBA saw record ratings in 2011-12, but a slight
decrease in the 2012-13 season. That will not temper the enthusiasm of
the bids for the NBA. As he leaves, Stern is hoping to at least double
the $930 million in rights fees the league receives from ESPN and
Turner. And you know neither company will allow one of their signature
sports properties go without a fight.
So with that, let's handicap the new rights deal and see where the
chips may fall.
INCUMBENTS
TURNER SPORTS
Turner is firmly entrenched with the NBA. As mentioned, this
partnership goes back to the 1984-85 season. The NBA began airing on
TNT in 1988 and has continued non-stop. Through the years, Turner's
relationship has expanded to running NBA Digital which includes
NBA.com, NBA Mobile and NBA TV. In addition, NBA TV is operated from
Turner Sports headquarters so it will take a huge bid from one of the
other cable sports networks to wrest this portion of the NBA contract
away.
Turner has given us the Emmy Award-winning Inside the NBA as well as
multi-Emmy Award winning studio analyst Charles Barkley. The NBA has
enjoyed its partnership with Turner and I don't think the league is
ready to give it up just yet. The only thing missing from the NBA on
TNT portfolio is the NBA Finals. Now that Turner has the NCAA Final
Four, perhaps the NBA will reward TNT by allowing the network to air
part or all of the Finals in the new contract. We'll see if it
happens. But even so, the NBA on TNT should continue in the next
contract and into the next decade.
ODDS: 5-2. Turner is a very strong candidate to renew.
ESPN/ABC
Disney has been a partner with the Association since the 2002-03
season. It seems every season, the network has been tweaking either
its game announcing or studio show in attempts to match or surpass
TNT. And while the Mike Breen-Jeff Van Gundy and Mike Tirico-Hubie
Brown teams are good, NBA Countdown seems to continually be in a state
of flux. No matter, people watch for the games and not the announcers.
When this current contract ends, the NBA will have been on ESPN and
ABC longer than when the games were on NBC. Just a little piece of
trivia for you.
ESPN has totally committed to the NBA through TV and radio. One would
expect that even if ESPN loses the TV contract, it would at least
remain on radio, however, basing on its MLB contract, the Worldwide
Leader would try to tie both TV and radio together as a way to
maintain its relationship.
Of the two TV contracts, this might be the most vulnerable, but it
will be hard to take this contract away.
ODDS: 3-1. ESPN loves its NBA and an outside party will have to really
pony up to lure the NBA away from the Bristol Bill Simmonses.
POTENTIAL SUITORS
CBS/CBS SPORTS NETWORK
CBS aired the NBA from 1973-74 through the 1989-90 season and some old
school fans wish the games were back there. To be honest, the NBA on
CBS theme is probably the second best in history.
CBS Sports seems to shut down after The Masters into August, but it
seems to be content to stay pat with its current lineup of the NFL,
SEC football, NCAA Tournament and the PGA. One would think CBS would
want some inventory for CBS Sports Network which has Arena Football,
professional lacrosse, rodeo and various other niche sports during the
summer months, but it doesn't appear to be interested in regaining the
NBA.
There's the CBS/Turner consortium for the NCAA Tournament, but asides
from airing a Christmas Day game and with CBS' commitments to college
basketball and the PGA Tour, there isn't much room for more than four
or five regular season games and the Finals. Beyond that, CBS is not
seen as a full-fledged NBA media partner.
ODDS: 1,000-1. CBS is happy with its lineup and doesn't want to bid on
expensive sports properties except for the NFL and NCAA Tournament.
FOX/FOX SPORTS 1/FOX SPORTS 2
Fox and the new FS1/FS2 combo are going to add some spice to the
negotiations. If either ESPN or Turner decide to let their exclusive
negotating window with the NBA lapse, Fox is going to be ready with a
lot of cash to lure the Association into its fold. Fox Sports has not
aired the NBA in its history. While local Fox Sports Net affiliates
across the country have contracts with individual teams, one would
have to think that armed with two new national sports cable networks
ready to debut in August, what would be better than to have some NBA
games starting in 2016-17?
As it stands now, Fox Sports 1 has college basketball, NASCAR and some
UFC bouts for the winter months, but to sustain the networks, the NBA
would be ideal and a huge feather in the Fox cap.
Also, in its fall schedule, Fox announced "Fox Sports Saturday" in
primetime. For the upcoming season, this will be filled with college
football, college basketball, NASCAR, UFC and MLB. There's plenty of
room for some regular season NBA as well as playoff games and NBA
Final broadcasts.
The NBA has to be intrigued by having Fox as potential suitor.
ODDS: 8-1. If either ESPN or Turner fall, Fox is a huge favorite to
pick up the NBA.
NBC SPORTS GROUP
Yes, the NBA on NBC theme is remembered rather fondly by your humble
writer as well as many on the staff of Awful Announcing. After losing
the NBA in 2002, NBC tried to replace it with Arena Football
(remember?) and had to wait until the mid-aughts with the NHL. With
NBC firmly entrenched with the NHL and running the Stanley Cup
Playoffs in April through June concurrently with the NBA Postseason,
the NBA would want a network with those months free. Sure, NBC could
use CNBC for any conflicts as it does with the NHL now, but it would
be a big mess trying to find the games.
NBC would love to get the NBA away from ESPN, but one has to question
if it could make both the NBA and NHL happy. And the NHL left ESPN
after feeling jilted by the Worldwide Leader in favor of the
Association.
ODDS: 20-1. The NHL on NBC doesn't allow for much room for the NBA.
And finally, a dark horse.
beIN SPORT
Who? Yes, beIN Sport, a network that launched just last year in the
US, it's owned and operated by Al-Jazeera. While it has some soccer,
beIN wants to expand its portfolio and air a major US sports property.
Its distribution is rather sparse right now, but it has some deep
pockets. And before you laugh beIN Sport off, it already has a
relationship with the NBA in France so the league is quite familiar
with the network.
Let's be honest, the NBA won't be going there in the next contract,
but you'll be hearing more about beIN Sport in the years to come.
ODDS: 5,000 to 1. No shot right now, but it will be in the hunt in the
future.
So that's a quick look at the upcoming NBA rights talks. We'll find
out the winners in a year's time.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2013/02/an-early-look-at-nba-tv-rights-will-anybody-challenge-espn/
*ernie
May 15, 2013, 1:43:38 AM5/15/13
to
TMC
May 17, 2013, 4:13:53 AM5/17/13
to
On May 14, 3:17 pm, TMC <tmc1...@gmail.com> wrote:
> http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/may/handicapping-the-new-nba-tv-r...
> http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2013/02/an-early-look-at-nba-tv-right...
http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/may/5-questions-for-the-rumored-nba-tv-deal-extension-talks.html
Does Turner or ESPN/ABC Have A Chance Of Not Retaining A Package?
If conditions lined up where there was a perfect storm of
circumstances against either company, hypothetically you could see one
of these networks being displaced. Unfortunately there is no perfect
storm brewing.
The NHL rights are locked up for almost a decade, making it a non-
existent fallback option if either Turner or ESPN/ABC found the NBA's
asking price too rich. MLB, NFL, and almost all major conferences are
also off the table. Essentially if you lose the NBA, there is little
to fill the void.
The economy is good and both companies are free and clear from any
major strategic issues like a pending merger or corporate spinoff.
ESPN is still largely unopposed with the mainstream outside of NHL
fans still not aware of NBCSN, what channel number it is, and if they
get it. Although it's big news in this space, the average fan may not
be aware fo the existence of Fox Sports 1 just yet.
Turner's coverage is preferred by most NBA fans and Turner also runs
NBA.com and handles production of NBA TV. Turner's Atlanta HQ is where
both operations are housed.
Although it's fun to think of some way where the NBA leaves ESPN or
Turner and mints a new ESPN challenger, it's likely not happening. The
fact the NBA wants to jump into extension talks 2 years in advance is
a strong signal that they are happy and want to lock this in. David
Stern is retiring and he would like to wrap this up under his watch.
The fact that the NBA is looking to have talks ahead of FS1's launch
and while NBCSN is still finding it's footing indicates to me that
just like the Facebook couple you wish would end it, they're more
likely to change their status update to engaged or married rather than
breaking up.
In a nutshell, the Bucks had a better chance of knocking off the Heat.
Will The NBA Create A Third Television Package For FS1 And NBCSN To
Fight To The Death For?
This is the most intriguing question to me. Surely NBCSN and FS1 know
this is their clearest path to NBA games and will be doing their
damndest to sway the NBA to consider such an option.
If I'm the NBA, I do it in a heartbeat. There's enough games for
everyone and why not plant your flag on a fourth network (counting
NBATV as a third).
I posed this question to John Ourand (who doesn't write his articles
in a basement in mesh shorts) and his feedback was, "I doubt it will
carve out another package. ESPN and Turner pay for exclusivity."
Buzzkill.
Still though, you have to wonder.
There is a nostalgia element with NBC and the NBA that will resonate
with fans. That said, the NBA cares about money and exposure. Some
"game of the week" package or "doubleheader day/night" for a NBCSN or
FS1 would certainly elevate the NBA's presence on a growing sports
network.
In regards to NBCSN, the question looms large on if they could
actually juggle working with the NHL and NBA. ESPN chose not to twice
and they had the benefit of ESPN2. Meanwhile, NBC is playing NHL game
7's on CNBC where it's labeled in the program guide as a financial
show. While NBC could add value and would be great in my opinion, I
think Ourand is probably right that Turner and ESPN would appease the
NBA by paying more to keep the NBA off a third network.
While FS1 would also be very interesting, Fox doesn't exactly have the
best history in terms of actual game production. Plus, the channel has
yet to even launch. FS1 and the NBA would be a nice fit, but the
timing doesn't seem right.
Still though, it's not hard to make the case to create such a package
and if the NBA has a bit of vision and keeps their current television
partners happy, then it could happen. There could be a chance we see
something develop here for either FS1 or NBCSN.
Will The NBA Continue To Be On Broadcast TV?
If you haven't noticed sports programming is moving off broadcast and
onto cable. Monday Night Football, the BCS, the Final Four, etc. Will
the NBA follow suit?
Again, I turned to John Ourand (who works in an office and whose job
likely includes health insurance) to answer this question. He deemed
that a good question (YES!) and replied with "I don't know how
important a broadcast presence is to the NBA."
Basically, ESPN will try to steer the NBA in this direction. The NBA
will want more money and may put a firm "no" on the NBA Finals on ESPN
in particular.
My guess is that this extension will likely see the NBA phase out
games on ABC with the NBA Finals remaining on broadcast TV for a
handful of years before eventually moving over to ESPN.
The flow of top sporting events to cable is inevitable and the NBA
will find the middle ground by allowing the Finals to stay for a while
before moving over.
When Will These Deals Actually Get Done?
The SBJ article said they would get looked at this summer. With that
in mind, here is how the timeline could break down...
July 2013- NBA begins talking to Turner and ESPN. Both sides of the
table pronounce a love of the other side and a strong interest in
working together. All compliments. A deal could be imminent!
August 2013 - The NBA will ask for somewhere around the neighborhood
of $1.5 billion a year (up from the $937 million annually in their
last deal). ESPN and Turner will say "that sounds rich" and momentum
will slow down.
September 2013 - The NBA will have "informal" meetings with FS1 and
NBC. As mentioned before, one of them has a shot at potentially
convincing the NBA to carve out a new package. Word will get back to
Turner and ESPN who will act somewhat indignant before sending in the
"A team" suits to further caress the NBA.
October- December 2013 - The season starting would be a good
artificial deadline to try to aim for. The holidays is a good fallback
option. Either way, an extension is going to take place before David
Stern leaves office at the end of January.
The two variables in my mind that could extend this thing or make it a
shorter negotiating period is a) how far apart the NBA and ESPN and
Turner will be in their initial offers b) if FS1 or NBCSN has much
traction in luring the NBA to jump in bed with them too.
What Deal Terms Could Change?
Turner and ESPN are going to pony up so they'll naturally ask for some
things in exchange which could include:
- A much longer deal than previous television contracts (see the SEC's
mammoth commitment with ESPN)
- Fewer blackout restrictions
- Less restrictions on picking top teams a certain amount of times a
year
- Rights to online and mobile
There you have it. A total shot in the dark guide to what to look for
over the summer and into the fall in regards to the NBA's future on
television. Bottom line: more money will be passed on to viewers and
funneled to owners and players with a shot in the arm to an ESPN
competitor being unlikely and Turner's NBA franchise continuing its
strong run.
> http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/may/handicapping-the-new-nba-tv-r...
>
> Written by Ken Fang on Tuesday, 14 May 2013 11:18.
>
> In this week's edition of Sports Business Journal, John Ourand and
> John Lombardo report that the NBA wants to begin talks this summer
> with its two TV partners, ESPN and Turner Sports about new deals. Now
> the two deals with the incumbents expire after the 2015-16 season, but
> the NBA wants to strike while the iron is still hot. Knowing that
> Major League Baseball, the NFL and most of the major BCS college
> conferences saw huge rights deals over the last few years, the NBA
> wants to join in before the rights bubble bursts.
>
> http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2013/05/13/Media/NB...
> Written by Ken Fang on Tuesday, 14 May 2013 11:18.
>
> In this week's edition of Sports Business Journal, John Ourand and
> John Lombardo report that the NBA wants to begin talks this summer
> with its two TV partners, ESPN and Turner Sports about new deals. Now
> the two deals with the incumbents expire after the 2015-16 season, but
> the NBA wants to strike while the iron is still hot. Knowing that
> Major League Baseball, the NFL and most of the major BCS college
> conferences saw huge rights deals over the last few years, the NBA
> wants to join in before the rights bubble bursts.
>
http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/may/5-questions-for-the-rumored-nba-tv-deal-extension-talks.html
Does Turner or ESPN/ABC Have A Chance Of Not Retaining A Package?
If conditions lined up where there was a perfect storm of
circumstances against either company, hypothetically you could see one
of these networks being displaced. Unfortunately there is no perfect
storm brewing.
The NHL rights are locked up for almost a decade, making it a non-
existent fallback option if either Turner or ESPN/ABC found the NBA's
asking price too rich. MLB, NFL, and almost all major conferences are
also off the table. Essentially if you lose the NBA, there is little
to fill the void.
The economy is good and both companies are free and clear from any
major strategic issues like a pending merger or corporate spinoff.
ESPN is still largely unopposed with the mainstream outside of NHL
fans still not aware of NBCSN, what channel number it is, and if they
get it. Although it's big news in this space, the average fan may not
be aware fo the existence of Fox Sports 1 just yet.
Turner's coverage is preferred by most NBA fans and Turner also runs
NBA.com and handles production of NBA TV. Turner's Atlanta HQ is where
both operations are housed.
Although it's fun to think of some way where the NBA leaves ESPN or
Turner and mints a new ESPN challenger, it's likely not happening. The
fact the NBA wants to jump into extension talks 2 years in advance is
a strong signal that they are happy and want to lock this in. David
Stern is retiring and he would like to wrap this up under his watch.
The fact that the NBA is looking to have talks ahead of FS1's launch
and while NBCSN is still finding it's footing indicates to me that
just like the Facebook couple you wish would end it, they're more
likely to change their status update to engaged or married rather than
breaking up.
In a nutshell, the Bucks had a better chance of knocking off the Heat.
Will The NBA Create A Third Television Package For FS1 And NBCSN To
Fight To The Death For?
This is the most intriguing question to me. Surely NBCSN and FS1 know
this is their clearest path to NBA games and will be doing their
damndest to sway the NBA to consider such an option.
If I'm the NBA, I do it in a heartbeat. There's enough games for
everyone and why not plant your flag on a fourth network (counting
NBATV as a third).
I posed this question to John Ourand (who doesn't write his articles
in a basement in mesh shorts) and his feedback was, "I doubt it will
carve out another package. ESPN and Turner pay for exclusivity."
Buzzkill.
Still though, you have to wonder.
There is a nostalgia element with NBC and the NBA that will resonate
with fans. That said, the NBA cares about money and exposure. Some
"game of the week" package or "doubleheader day/night" for a NBCSN or
FS1 would certainly elevate the NBA's presence on a growing sports
network.
In regards to NBCSN, the question looms large on if they could
actually juggle working with the NHL and NBA. ESPN chose not to twice
and they had the benefit of ESPN2. Meanwhile, NBC is playing NHL game
7's on CNBC where it's labeled in the program guide as a financial
show. While NBC could add value and would be great in my opinion, I
think Ourand is probably right that Turner and ESPN would appease the
NBA by paying more to keep the NBA off a third network.
While FS1 would also be very interesting, Fox doesn't exactly have the
best history in terms of actual game production. Plus, the channel has
yet to even launch. FS1 and the NBA would be a nice fit, but the
timing doesn't seem right.
Still though, it's not hard to make the case to create such a package
and if the NBA has a bit of vision and keeps their current television
partners happy, then it could happen. There could be a chance we see
something develop here for either FS1 or NBCSN.
Will The NBA Continue To Be On Broadcast TV?
If you haven't noticed sports programming is moving off broadcast and
onto cable. Monday Night Football, the BCS, the Final Four, etc. Will
the NBA follow suit?
Again, I turned to John Ourand (who works in an office and whose job
likely includes health insurance) to answer this question. He deemed
that a good question (YES!) and replied with "I don't know how
important a broadcast presence is to the NBA."
Basically, ESPN will try to steer the NBA in this direction. The NBA
will want more money and may put a firm "no" on the NBA Finals on ESPN
in particular.
My guess is that this extension will likely see the NBA phase out
games on ABC with the NBA Finals remaining on broadcast TV for a
handful of years before eventually moving over to ESPN.
The flow of top sporting events to cable is inevitable and the NBA
will find the middle ground by allowing the Finals to stay for a while
before moving over.
When Will These Deals Actually Get Done?
The SBJ article said they would get looked at this summer. With that
in mind, here is how the timeline could break down...
July 2013- NBA begins talking to Turner and ESPN. Both sides of the
table pronounce a love of the other side and a strong interest in
working together. All compliments. A deal could be imminent!
August 2013 - The NBA will ask for somewhere around the neighborhood
of $1.5 billion a year (up from the $937 million annually in their
last deal). ESPN and Turner will say "that sounds rich" and momentum
will slow down.
September 2013 - The NBA will have "informal" meetings with FS1 and
NBC. As mentioned before, one of them has a shot at potentially
convincing the NBA to carve out a new package. Word will get back to
Turner and ESPN who will act somewhat indignant before sending in the
"A team" suits to further caress the NBA.
October- December 2013 - The season starting would be a good
artificial deadline to try to aim for. The holidays is a good fallback
option. Either way, an extension is going to take place before David
Stern leaves office at the end of January.
The two variables in my mind that could extend this thing or make it a
shorter negotiating period is a) how far apart the NBA and ESPN and
Turner will be in their initial offers b) if FS1 or NBCSN has much
traction in luring the NBA to jump in bed with them too.
What Deal Terms Could Change?
Turner and ESPN are going to pony up so they'll naturally ask for some
things in exchange which could include:
- A much longer deal than previous television contracts (see the SEC's
mammoth commitment with ESPN)
- Fewer blackout restrictions
- Less restrictions on picking top teams a certain amount of times a
year
- Rights to online and mobile
There you have it. A total shot in the dark guide to what to look for
over the summer and into the fall in regards to the NBA's future on
television. Bottom line: more money will be passed on to viewers and
funneled to owners and players with a shot in the arm to an ESPN
competitor being unlikely and Turner's NBA franchise continuing its
strong run.
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