Raise your hand if you predicted that Wisconsin would be ranked #1 by both SagPred and KenPom at
this point in the season.
Anyway, here's how they're doing it, based on Pomeroy's data...
Offense
They are the slowest paced team in the nation that rarely turns the ball over. Think about that. They hold the ball longer than any other offense, yet they turn the ball over less often than just about any
other offense. To me, that's amazing. They shoot the 3 very well, but are only average at 2's and FT's.
Their shot selection plays very well to their strengths, in that they attempt a high percentage of 3's.
They rarely go to the free throw line, which is okay since they are only average at making them and
they are below average at rebounding their misses.
The goal of their offense is to maintain possession of the ball though low-risk passes until someone is open for a three point attempt. Trying to draw a foul is not much of a concern to this offense, nor is
trying to rebound a missed shot. They want to set up an open 3-pt attempt and then hustle back on
defense.
Defense
They rank #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to Pomeroy. That means that the low point
totals that their opponents accumulate is not just due to the slow pace of their offense, although
their lack of interest in offensive rebounding probably helps their defensive numbers. Their defensive
strategy is based on forcing missed shots. They defend both 2-pters and 3-pters extremely well. Not
only do they force a high percentage of missed FG's, they rebound those misses at a high rate. Their
emphasis on defensive rebounding could partially explain their slow pace on offense. More players
trying to rebound an opponent's missed shot means less players flashing out on the fast-break. Not
only do they force a high percentage of missed 3-pt attempts, they do not allow many 3-pt attempts in
the first place. They also rarely foul their opponent, although forcing a turnover is less of a concern.
The goal if their defense is to force a low-percentage 2-pt attempt, without fouling, and then making
an extreme effort to rebound a missed shot. Forcing a TO or starting a fast-break is not much of a
concern.
