Message from discussion TONY GWYNN'S HOF CHANCES
From: sp...@panix.com (Greg "Sarcasm Is A Way Of Life" Spira)
Subject: Re: TONY GWYNN'S HOF CHANCES
Date: 23 Nov 1993 16:50:37 -0500
References: <1993Nov22.firstname.lastname@example.org> <1993Nov22.email@example.com> <1993Nov23.firstname.lastname@example.org>
In <1993Nov23.172209.26...@borland.com> mfes...@borland.com (Mike Fester) writes:
>In article <1993Nov22.200925.3...@midway.uchicago.edu>,
>Ted Frank <t...@midway.uchicago.edu> wrote:
>>What's the most batting titles won by any non-HOF'er? Gwynn will finish
>>with about 2500 hits and at least four batting titles. (How many
>>did Buckner win?
>>Madlock? Nobody would suggest those two for the HOF,
>>but they may not have won four titles.)
>>Gwynn clearly isn't the best hitter or outfielder out there, and may
>>not deserve to be in the HOF on objective merits, but he is someone
>>who's hit .309+ for 11-straight years, and it would be difficult to
>>envision the HOF committee not eventually voting him in, if not a
>>first-balloter by any stretch.
>Which "objective merits" would those be? T&P have him rated as the 110 all-time
>player on career stats before last year; in the 70s or 80s for hitters. They
>also rated him the 2nd best player in the NL 2 different years, and put
>him in the top 10 3 other times.
A lot of TP's high rating of Gwynn is based on his really high number
of fielding runs. As you probably know, most people here are quite
skeptical of fielding runs. If the fielding runs listed for Gwynn are
indeed accurate assesments of his defensive value, then I think most
people here would agree that Gwynn belongs in the Hall. Whether his
defense is that valuable is a question, and one that I have no answer
for. Gwynn is most certainly a very good fielder, but I'm not sure if
he's *that* good.
As far as his offense goes, his peak value in terms of batting runs isn't
particularly high for an outfielder - 163*. I would *guess* that 80%
of the outfielders in the Hall of Fame have higher peak value. His value
outside those 5 years isn't extraordinary either - 67 batting runs*
(+ of course this year, probably the 2nd best of Gwynn's career).
*(actually batting runs + stolen base runs)
To argue that Gwynn has produced enough to be in the Hall if he retired
today, I think you have to argue that he's had one of the 20 best
outfield defensive careers ever. I, myself, am not prepared to believe
that, though TB's numbers clearly imply that that's true.
In the end, when he retires, I suspect I will be convinced that he's
Hall of Fame quality. I certainly will be if he repeats this past
season a couple of times, though I doubt he'll do that, unless the
87/93 effect pops up again. (Whatever it is that ups offense in these
years - and I'm not going to try and guess what it is - seems to have
an extraordinary effect on Gwynn).