Run Support Index -- selective data w/ comments (long)
Anthony Giacalone
the subject of historic Run Support for pitchers and is looking for some
feedback about methodology and whatnot. Any comments or advice would be
appreciated. -- A.G.
. . . I set off on a little project. It began with me being curious on the
HoF case for some long-timer big-win pitchers from the 60s/70s like Kaat,
Tiant, John, and Blyleven. I thought I'd compare them with some HoF big-win
pitchers from that same generation - Palmer, Jenkins, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro,
Carlton, Seaver, and Perry. These twelve form a group roughly defined as
"old pitchers when I was a little kid." Just to give myself an idea of how
high or low a pitcher's run support could be, I threw in some pitchers who I
figured probably had very good run support throughout their career - Catfish
Hunter, Jack Morris, Lefty Grove, & Vic Raschi - and some who I thought
should've had below average run support throughout their career - Bob
Friend, Ted Lyons, Robin Roberts, Billy Pierce, Dave Stieb. Then I also
tossed in Spahn & Wynn, 'cuz I had all the other live ball 300 game winners.
What I did was go to retrosheet, write down their run support for each
individual game they started (which takes far less time than one might
think - for 1920-77 it's real easy as the daily log lists the starting
pitcher for each team, it's a little harder for 1978-90, but they still have
daily splits; it's only a pain in the butt from 1991-present - fortunately I
had very little of that to check). At any rate, from that info, I figured
the pitcher's annual Run Support, then adjusted it for park effects as
listed at baseball-reference.com (rememebering to half the distance from the
PF # and 100 to account for road games); then divided the adjusted run
support by the league average Runs/Game; & multiplying by 100 to get the
pitcher's seasonal Run Support Index (RSI)- so a pitcher perfectly in-line
with the league average would have 100, one with 20% better run support
would have a RSI, etc. Then I figured a career RSI, by multiplying each
season's RSI by games started, added all the years together, and dividing
that sum by the career total of games started. Though I made the individual
season RSI an integer, for the career I used 2 decimal places. . . At any
rate, here are the career RSI for the 23 above pitchers:
1) Vic Raschi 115.60
2) Catfish Hunter 110.40
3) Jack Morris 107.27
4) Jim Palmer 107.05
5) Jim Kaat 106.67
6) Lefty Grove 105.90
7) Steve Carlton 105.77
8) Luis Tiant 105.63
9) Warren Spahn 104.97
10) Early Wynn 104.46
11) Fergie Jenkins 103.74
12) Tommy John 101.89
13) Don Sutton 101.00
14) Phil Niekro 99.85
15) Billy Pierce 96.81
16) Bert Blyleven 96.76
17) Dave Stieb 95.97
18) Robin Roberts 95.60
......Tom Seaver 95.60
20) Gaylord Perry 95.18
21) Ted Lyons 94.19
22) Bob Friend 93.13
23) Nolan Ryan 92.95
I like it because most people ended up where I expected them, though
obviously there were a few surprises. The biggie is #23 - Nolan Ryan did
worse than any of the guys I threw in to represent the low end of the
spectrum. Worse than Bob Friend! That's like being on the wrong end of the
Mendoza line. . . That's like be out-acted by William Schatner.
(Pointless aside - wouldn't Worse Than Schatner be a good name for a band?).
His entire career, his team's didn't hit well for him. He NEVER had a
season in which his RSI was as high as Raschi's career mark. He only had
one season as high as Hunter - in 1969 when he had a 112 when he only
started 10 stinkin' games. He also had 11 seasons where his RSI was under
90 - and he started 292 games in those seasons. He also led all pitchers in
times victimized by shutouts with 63. Phil Niekro was 2nd with 61.
Speaking of Phil, he's another surprise as I thought he'd be worse than
99.85 since the Braves stank so badly when he was starting 70 games a year
for them in the late 70s. His run support then was bad, but for most of the
rest of his career it was actually good - especially those last years -
after 1980, he only had one year under 100. . . I thought Sutton would be
higher because those Dodgers teams were so good, but those Dodgers teams
were so good because of their pitching. He almost always had someone like
Drysdale or Koufax of Tommy John or Claude Osteen or Bill Singer or even
Rick Sutcliffe there with him. . . .
I was surprised Perry was as bad as that. In the 60s he was on good teams,
but wasn't (usually getting good run support). From 1964-71 his RSIs were
82, 97, 106, 86, 91, 97, 108, 110. After leaving the Giants, he only had 3
seasons over 100 & a fourth season at 100. . .
The highest single-season mark for anyone starting full-time was in 1976
when Steve Carlton got a 151! . In eight of his starts, the Phils scored 10
or more runs (the single season high in that category - tied by Lefty Grove
pitching for a great offensive team ni 1930). Oddly enough, he got a
no-decision from the single biggest offensive explosion, as he was the
starter in that 18-16 game where the Cubs blew a 12 run lead (that was also
the most runs ever scored by his team in any start of his career).
Ironically, Carlton also had the lowest RSI for anyone with 15 or more
starts - a 59 in 1985 when he had 16 starts.
Worst RSI for anyone starting for a full season? Dave Stieb with a 62 in
1981. Of course, because of the strike he only had 25 starts. Lowest score
of anyone with 30+ starts? Bert Blyleven in 1976 with 68 - he got a 74 in
12 starts with the Twins, and 65 in 24 starts with Texas. 2nd worse was
also in 1976 (what was going on that year?) as Nolan Ryan got a 69. 3rd
worst is Gaylord Perry getting a 70 in his last season. . .
One thing which could distort an RSI was 1 Huge Game, and ironically the
most obvious example of a person's single season RSI getting distorted was
Nolan Ryan. In 1971, the Mets scored 87 runs in his 26 starts - 20 of them
in one game. His RSI still stank that year. Nolan was one of only three
pitchers to ever get a 20 run performance in support. Lefty Grove did twice
(in the same year) & Early Wynn did twice - oddly enough both were with the
Go-Go White Sox, who were hardly known for their slugging. Actually, one of
those games came in 1960, the year after the Go-Go Sox (Gone-Gone Sox?), but
it was the same core roster. FWIW, neither Robin Roberts nor Gaylord Perry
ever had the offense behind them ever score 15 runs or more in a game for
them - 14 was the highest both ever had. . . .
Roberts actually had league average run support in his glory years, but
after 1956, his run support was below average for all but one year in his
career (in '63! when he got a big 101. Ooooh. Aaaahhhhh). Even in his
glory years his support was usually only average - only one season over 106
(that was his 28-win season in '52 - he had an RSI of 124). Speaking of
glory years - Steve Carlton actually had barely below average run support in
his scary-good season of 1972 with a RSI of 95. This Phils were 11th in
runs scored as a team that year, but were better with Lefty on the mound.
Actually, that RSI is probably a little inflated - the Phils scored more
than 5 runs only 7 times that year, but in all seven of those games, they
scored 8-11 runs. They just constantly scored 2-4 a game for him. In the
years 1927-33, the season Lefty Grove had his worst run support (103) was
his 30 win season - he actually earned that gaudy 31-4 mark. . .
Spahn's RSI was as consistent as everything else in his career - he only had
one real season (not including '42) with an RSI not in the 90-120 range -
and even then it was only an 88 in 1947. . .
One thing I got out of this: Jim Kaat has no damn business ever getting
elected to the Hall of Fame. There will always have to be someone with the
title: Most Wins of Any Non-HoFer, and he embodies what that person should
be: a long career, with no really spectacular peak but a number of B quality
seasons, an unspectacular career win percentage despite playing for teams
which consistently gave him good run support. After 1962, he only had one
real year as a starter (i.e. - not including his 2 starts in 1982) in which
his RSI was under 100 - and even in that season it was a not-too-bad 95.
Ironically, that may have been his best season - 1974, when he won 21 for a
lousy White Sox team. . . In the early 70s, when Kaat & Blyleven were on
the same team together, Kaat almost always had better run support - 112-94
in 1970, 109-88 in 1971, 101-107 in 1972, and prior to his trade in mid-73
Kaat had a 110, while Blyleven got! a 95 for the year. If the run support
is reversed for those few years, Blyleven might be in the HoF right now. On
a similar note, in 1959, with the Go-Go's, Billy Pierce had an RSI of 77,
while Early Wynn had one of 120 - sure Wynn's total is inflated by the
20-run start, but that's a heckuva gap. . .
In 1968, the Cubs were shut out TEN TIMES when Fergie pitched. Ouch. I
know it was '68, but jeez. . . To put that in perspective, Vic Raschi only
had 8 shut outs tossed against him in his 255 career starts. Raschi once
went 166 straight starts without having his hitters shut out behing him
(that streak ended when the Yanks were shut out 3 times in 6 starts with him
on the mound). Hell, even Dave Stieb, despite some dreadful early run
support, only got shut out 17 times. Spahn, in 20+ season, only 35 times,
but Fergie got nailed ten times in one year. Actually, the worst stretch I
can find for any single pitcher happened to Luis Tiant in '74, when the Red
Sox scored 0, 0, 0, , and 1 runs - er, run - for him in four straight
starts. He ended the year with an RSI of 98. . .
Doesn't say much for Catfish that his Run Support was that good and his
career winning percentage was .574. James listed him in his pitcher
rankings, but not Jack Morris, & I gotta figure Morris may have been a
little better, if for no other reason than he lasted longer. . .
Raschi may very well have the highest RSI for anyone period - a .667 win
percentage with a career 105+ ERA? There's a combo you don't see very
often. . . Tom Seaver only had one season with an RSI higher than Rashi's
mark - a 126 in '81. Actually I'm splitting hairs, as his 115 in 1979 is
barely lower than Raschi's 115.60. . .
Jim Palmer actually had a 5 year stretch from 1974-8 under 100. Ted Lyons
had an eleven year similar stretch from 1929-39 (though he did hit 99 twice
in that ! period). . .
I was going to use the RS info an espn.com to include Maddux & Clemens, but
that info is different. They figure it out as (quoting from the stats
glossary there: "Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while
the pitcher of record)." I didn't think that would make any real
difference, but boy did it ever - from '88 onward Clemens had RSIs of 79,
100, 83, 83, 81, 59, 60, 77, 62, 87, 79, 69, 70, & 100. ??? I coulda sworn
he had really good run support last year that enabled him to get that gaudy
win percentage, but this says he had league average run support. Just
looking at the RS numbers for Maddux, it looks like he'd score about the
same, so screw it - for some reason it just doesn't work there.
I'm still amazed how bad Ryan's run support was.
Chris Jaffe
Roger Moore
>At any rate, from that info, I figured
>the pitcher's annual Run Support, then adjusted it for park effects as
>listed at baseball-reference.com (rememebering to half the distance from the
>PF # and 100 to account for road games);
This is a mistake. The park factors listed at baseball-reference.com have
already taken the fact that half of the games are on the road into
account, so you shouldn't cut it in half again. This may have an
important impact on the numbers presented.
--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | (r...@alumni.caltech.edu)
"While baseball remains our national game, our national tastes will be on
a higher level and our national ideals on a finer foundation."
-Calvin Coolidge
Anthony Giacalone
confirming this screwup, Roger.
Anthony
"Roger Moore" <r...@alumnae.caltech.edu> wrote in message
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Anthony Giacalone
than halving the distance to 100. Here are the results:
1) Vic Raschi 115.66
2) Catfish Hunter 112.28
3) Warren Spahn 107.60
4) Jack Morris 107.05
5) Jim Palmer 107.03
6) Jim Kaat 105.57
7) Early Wynn 105.02
8) Steve Carlton 104.56
9) Tommy John 104.02
10) Don Sutton 103.94
11) Luis Tiant 103.09
12) Lefty Grove 103.02
13) Fergie Jenkins 99.10
14) Billy Pierce 97.75
15) Phil Niekro 97.67
16) Robin Roberts 96.21
17) Tom Seaver 95.71
18) Bert Blyleven 95.64
19) Gaylord Perry 95.32
20) Nolan Ryan 95.11
21) Dave Stieb 94.60
22) Ted Lyons 94.51
23) Bob Friend 92.49
This seems to make more sense. Check out how far Friend is from 22nd. A
lot of the guys I was surprised by have now moved (Ryan & Sutton up, Niekro
down). Surprises are that Perry's support still stinks. I didn't realize
Spahn's support was that good (I guess that shouldn't be so surpising with
Matthew, Aaron, Adcock et al).
Chris Jaffe
"Roger Moore" <r...@alumnae.caltech.edu> wrote in message
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