600 Homers
Ted Frank
RStLoup <rst...@aol.com> wrote:
>Sorry to start by replying to my own post, but after I read the message it
>occurred to me that the similarity score study might be worth posting. The 10
>most similar players to McGwire at the same age are:
What are the similarity scores? Are any of them even 900?
>Clearly his amazing current pace is an argument to the contrary. I offer this
>only as an explanation for my opinion, and make no bold claims of predictive
>certainty.
Acknowledged.
At the same time, what McGwire has done is unprecedented. I can't recall
anyone ever having close to the sort of u-shaped career McGwire has had,
going from a relatively old 23-yo rookie phenom to a steady decline to a
barely replacement-level first-baseman in what should have been his peak
years, and then shooting up to near-Ruthian levels in his mid-30's on a
consistent basis. Players with similar career stats would invariably be
in a decline phase, rather than having their best season ever, at
McGwire's age -- they also would invariably have had far better seasons at
ages 26-28.
The only thing close, if we ignore park effects, is, well, Hank Aaron,
who was following a normal career progression when moving from Milwaukee
to Atlanta gave him a stat boost, combined with another stat boost from
the lower pitching mound in 1969, that allowed him to have a career-high
OPS at the age of 37. (For those who lived through it: when did it become
inevitable that Aaron was going to hit 715?) Aaron's 32-34 yo seasons
were far worse than McGwire's in absolute terms (they were 1966-68),
hitting a total of 112 home runs, about two thirds of what McGwire did. He
hit 203 home runs over the next five years. I give McGwire about 50-50
to match 203 home runs in the next five years, which gives him better
than 50-50 to hit 150-odd homers.
--
"If a President of the United States ever lied to the American people he
should resign." -- Arkansas Congressional candidate Bill Clinton, 1974
RStLoup
similar to McGwire, and if so, your instincts are right. McCovey topped the
list with a similarity score of 889.
In fact, the last couple of names on his top 10 comp list are below 800.
McGwire's career has had a truly bizarre path. Aaron did have a surge of
productivity late in his career due to the park switch, but unlike McGwire, he
had been consistent and healthy for the period prior to then. McGwire's career
path has been almost freakish, and for that reason, it is indeed hard to get
too firm a handle on him from the similarity scores.
chris
>I would be interested in views on the question -- who will be the fourth player
>in history to reach the 600 homer mark?
>
>1) Mark McGwire
>2) Barry Bonds
>3) Ken Griffey Jr
>4) Juan Gonzalez
>5) None of the above
>
I'm inclined to mention only two of those players. McGwire and Griffey
are probably the only two active players with a realistic shot at 600
homers. Bonds has worldly talent, but is probably never destined to hit
more than 45 in a season... and Gonzalez hasn't played enough yet I
think to warrant the 600 consideration (he hasn't hit 300 yet).
Griffey has the best shot. His HR numbers have been phenomenal the last
7 years, and if you extrapolate the strike season (and his injury season
of 95) he's averaged 50 HR's over the last 5 seasons, a jaw dropping
pace. Say he doesn't get better... and plays (only) 6 or 7 more seasons
and hits the same number of homers he's hit in the past 7 years, he'll
easily eclipse 600, and close in on 700. He's only 28!
McGwire, I'd like to say is likely to mash 600 himself. His back might
prevent him though. I see him playing about 4 or 5 more years, and if
healthy, playing a few more. His numbers too have been eyepopping the
past few years, averaging 55 over the past three season. I don't see
any reason for his production to drop to 40 homers over the next 4 or 5
seasons, so I'm gussing that he'll get to 600. IF his back hangs in
there, he might tag a few more seasons to the tail end of his career,
but I think that it's possible that he'll beat Griffey to 600 but that
Griffey might be the third player to crank 700 (and possibly make a run
at Aaron's 755).
Any career threatening injury notwithstanding.
Chris
--
Christopher Scott Campbell * I am so SMART! I am so SMART!
csca...@tuba.aix.calpoly.edu * S-M-R-T, I mean S-M-A-R-T...
*
http://www.calpoly.edu/~cscampbe * -- Homer Simpson
chris
certainty.
>going from a relatively old 23-yo rookie phenom to a steady decline to a
>barely replacement-level first-baseman in what should have been his peak
>years, and then shooting up to near-Ruthian levels in his mid-30's on a
>consistent basis. Players with similar career stats would invariably be
>in a decline phase, rather than having their best season ever, at
Taking into account that 93-94 were lost due to injury, his "U" is
really prety flat, and I'd hardly rate 32 HR's as "barely replacement
level." Yes, he had a tremendous rookie season (obviously) but he was a
pretty steady and good power hitter up until the last few years. Maybe
those years in the cage and on bench (weights) have paid off? I'm
somewhat surprised that nobody else has the kind of HR numbers that
MCGwire has at his age (during his mid thirties) since although
physically players may not be at their "athletic" peak, their hitting
should get better with age... or at the least wouldn't suffer greatly
because of problems brought on by age.
James Buster
chris <csca...@monet.artisan.calpoly.edu> wrote:
>Yes, he had a tremendous rookie season (obviously) but he was a
>pretty steady and good power hitter up until the last few years. Maybe
>those years in the cage and on bench (weights) have paid off?
I think the more likely cause has been stated by McGwire himself.
To paraphrase, "I now hit the ball like I want to, instead of how
some batting coach wants me to".
--
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atomsphere of poisonous gases... but aside from that, it's not
much like Earth.
Spike White
: In article <6sl2ep$dgk$1...@cscnews.csc.calpoly.edu>,
: chris <csca...@monet.artisan.calpoly.edu> wrote:
: >Yes, he had a tremendous rookie season (obviously) but he was a
: >pretty steady and good power hitter up until the last few years. Maybe
: >those years in the cage and on bench (weights) have paid off?
: I think the more likely cause has been stated by McGwire himself.
: To paraphrase, "I now hit the ball like I want to, instead of how
: some batting coach wants me to".
And when he came up, he swung at anything he could see. He's now got
a good command of the strike zone.
--
Spike White | | Dilbert and Drew Carey
Tivoli Systems | spike...@tivoli.com | -- separated at birth?
Austin, TX | '87 BMW K75S (motorcycle)|
Disclaimer: The guys down the hall disagree with everything I say. Guess
who speaks for the company!
Ted Frank
chris <csca...@monet.artisan.calpoly.edu> wrote:
>>barely replacement-level first-baseman in what should have been his peak
>>years, and then shooting up to near-Ruthian levels in his mid-30's on a
>>consistent basis. Players with similar career stats would invariably be
>>in a decline phase, rather than having their best season ever, at
>
>Taking into account that 93-94 were lost due to injury, his "U" is
>really prety flat, and I'd hardly rate 32 HR's as "barely replacement
>level."
1) It was 22 HR's in full time play in 1991, not 32 HRs.
2) He hit .201 with a SLG under .400. It was a Kingmanesque. The OPS was
712. That's probably *below* replacement level.