Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 29 October - 04 November 2012

[SWPC.We...@noaa.gov]

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Nov 05 0312 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 October - 04 November 2012

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. The largest flares of
the period were a pair of C1 flares from Regions 1596 (N07, L=150,
class/area Eho/460 on 21 October) and 1598 (S12, L=111, class/area
Dki/420 on 23 October) at 0507 UTC and 1139 UTC on 31 October,
respectively. Other activity of note was a 24 degree long filament
eruption centered at S32E07 that occurred from 0640-0855 UTC on 30
October. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 29-30 October and again on 01 November. High
levels were reached on 31 October. Normal background levels were
observed from 02-04 November.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels with major
to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. The period began
with quiet conditions until a sudden increase in solar wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft from 290 - 360 km/s occurred at approximately
31/1445 UTC. A sudden impulse (13 nT) was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer at 1539 UTC on 31 October. This initial activity was
due to a pair of CMEs resulting from filament eruptions on 27 and 28
October. The geomagnetic field responded with a unsettled period
during the 1500-1800 UTC period on 31 October. At approximatly
31/2348 UTC, the total magnetic field (Bt) increased from 9 to 15 nT
while the Bz component rotated to a southward (negative) component
for approximately 20 hours (maximum deflection of 11 nT). The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels with major
to severe storm periods observed at high latitudes on 01 November.
By 02 November through the rest of the reporting period, quiet
conditions prevailed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 November - 01 December 2012

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low until 08 November.
>From 08-21 November, a chance for M-class flares exist as old Region
1594 (S27, L=199) rotates across the visible disk. From 22 November
until the end of the forecast period, very low to low levels are
expected.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels from 09-24 November. Normal to
moderate levels are expected from 25 November through 01 December.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled
through the forecast period. Unsettled conditions with a chance for
active periods are expected from 08-11 November and again on 13
November due to activity from a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.