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Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 10 - 16 June 2013
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SWPC.We...@noaa.gov
Jun 17, 2013, 11:30:08 AM6/17/13
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:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jun 17 0404 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 June 2013
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The
period started off with an isolated C1/Sf flare at 10/1424 UTC from
Region 1765 (N08, L=052, class/area Dai/210 on 09 June). By 11 June,
Region 1765 was the only spotted region left on the visible disk but
only managed to produce several B-class flares. On 12 June, rapid
flux emergence was observed on the southwest quadrant of the solar
disk and was numbered as Region 1768 (S11, L=356, class/area Dko/320
on 14 June). Although 1768 was the largest region on the visible
disk during the rest of the period, it failed to produce any
substantial flare activity. Solar activity continued at very low
levels until early on 14 June, when Region 1769 (S22, L=261,
class/area Cro/020 on 14 June) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare
at 14/0031 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep reported at
14/0021 UTC (431 km/s). Solar activity continued at low levels for
the rest of the period with an isolated long duration C1 flare at
15/0400 UTC from Region 1774 (S19, L=238, class/area Cro/030 on 16
June) and a C1/Sf from Region 1769 at 16/1020 UTC. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels through the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Unsettled
to active levels with an isolated minor storm period at high
latitudes was observed for the first half of 10 June due to possible
activity associated with a shock arrival from a non Earth-directed
CME from 07 June. During this time, total field (Bt) increased from
approximately 4 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component varied from +8 nT
to -8 nT before calming to more nominal levels by midday on 10 June.
Solar wind speed increased briefly on 10 June from approximately 350
km/s to 419 km/s by 10/1514 UTC before decreasing back to 360 km/s
by early 11 June. A slow increase in solar wind speed occurred on 11
to 12 June reaching maximum values near 476 km/s by 12/0430 UTC
before declining to background levels through the rest of the
period. The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period midday on 11 June. Conditions declined to quiet
levels for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 June - 13 July 2013
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly very low to low
levels. There is a chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares from 18 June
through 08 July due to potential flare activity from old Region 1762
(S30, L=129) and two new regions observed in STEREO A/B EUVI 195
imagery located to the northwest of old Region 1765 (N08, L=052) and
southwest of old Region 1757 (S08, L=148).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels from 22 June through 07 July due to
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. Normal to moderate
levels are expected for 17-21 June and 08-13 July.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on
17-18 June due to weak CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 19-20 June. A recurrent CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective from 21-24 June causing unsettled to active levels with
a chance for minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions. Mostly quiet levels
are expected from 25-27 June. From 28 June through 01 July, another
CH HSS is expected to be geoeffective causing unsettled to minor
storm (G1-Minor) levels. Quiet levels are expected to return from
02-04 July. On 05-06 July, a weaker CH HSS is expected to cause
quiet to unsettled levels. From 07 July until the end of the
forecast period, mostly quiet conditions are expected.
:Issued: 2013 Jun 17 0404 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 June 2013
Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The
period started off with an isolated C1/Sf flare at 10/1424 UTC from
Region 1765 (N08, L=052, class/area Dai/210 on 09 June). By 11 June,
Region 1765 was the only spotted region left on the visible disk but
only managed to produce several B-class flares. On 12 June, rapid
flux emergence was observed on the southwest quadrant of the solar
disk and was numbered as Region 1768 (S11, L=356, class/area Dko/320
on 14 June). Although 1768 was the largest region on the visible
disk during the rest of the period, it failed to produce any
substantial flare activity. Solar activity continued at very low
levels until early on 14 June, when Region 1769 (S22, L=261,
class/area Cro/020 on 14 June) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare
at 14/0031 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep reported at
14/0021 UTC (431 km/s). Solar activity continued at low levels for
the rest of the period with an isolated long duration C1 flare at
15/0400 UTC from Region 1774 (S19, L=238, class/area Cro/030 on 16
June) and a C1/Sf from Region 1769 at 16/1020 UTC. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels through the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Unsettled
to active levels with an isolated minor storm period at high
latitudes was observed for the first half of 10 June due to possible
activity associated with a shock arrival from a non Earth-directed
CME from 07 June. During this time, total field (Bt) increased from
approximately 4 nT to 9 nT while the Bz component varied from +8 nT
to -8 nT before calming to more nominal levels by midday on 10 June.
Solar wind speed increased briefly on 10 June from approximately 350
km/s to 419 km/s by 10/1514 UTC before decreasing back to 360 km/s
by early 11 June. A slow increase in solar wind speed occurred on 11
to 12 June reaching maximum values near 476 km/s by 12/0430 UTC
before declining to background levels through the rest of the
period. The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated
unsettled period midday on 11 June. Conditions declined to quiet
levels for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 June - 13 July 2013
Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly very low to low
levels. There is a chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares from 18 June
through 08 July due to potential flare activity from old Region 1762
(S30, L=129) and two new regions observed in STEREO A/B EUVI 195
imagery located to the northwest of old Region 1765 (N08, L=052) and
southwest of old Region 1757 (S08, L=148).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels from 22 June through 07 July due to
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. Normal to moderate
levels are expected for 17-21 June and 08-13 July.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on
17-18 June due to weak CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on 19-20 June. A recurrent CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective from 21-24 June causing unsettled to active levels with
a chance for minor storm (G1-Minor) conditions. Mostly quiet levels
are expected from 25-27 June. From 28 June through 01 July, another
CH HSS is expected to be geoeffective causing unsettled to minor
storm (G1-Minor) levels. Quiet levels are expected to return from
02-04 July. On 05-06 July, a weaker CH HSS is expected to cause
quiet to unsettled levels. From 07 July until the end of the
forecast period, mostly quiet conditions are expected.
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