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Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 15 - 21 October 2012
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:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Oct 22 0609 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 October 2012

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Activity was low
during 15 - 19 October due to mostly low-level C-class flares. The
largest flare of this interval was a C7 at 17/0802 UTC from Region
1596 (N07, L=150, class/area Eho/460 on 21 October) which displayed
a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during most of its transit.
Activity increased to high levels on 20 October due to an impulsive
M9 x-ray flare at 20/1814 UTC from Region 1598 (S12, L=113,
class/area Dhi/270 on 21 October) as it crossed the east limb. The
M9 flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock
speed 516 km/s) and a non-Earth-directed coronal mass ejection
(CME). Activity decreased to moderate levels on 21 October due to an
M1/Sf flare at 21/2003 UTC from Region 1598, which was also
associated with a non-Earth-directed CME. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels during most of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled levels early on 15
October, then decreased to quiet levels for the rest of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 October - 17 November 2012

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels during 22
October - 02 November with M-class flare activity likely from Region
1598. Activity is expected to decrease to low levels during 03 - 17
November. However, there will be a chance for M-class flare activity
beginning 15 November as (old) Region 1598 returns to the visible
disk. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at mostly high levels during 22 - 24 October. A
decrease to normal to moderate flux levels is expected during 25
October - 04 November. An increase to mostly high flux levels is
expected during 05 - 17 November. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels during 22 - 23 October with a slight chance for active levels
due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet levels are
expected during 24 October - 07 November. An increase to unsettled
levels is expected on 08 November due to a solar sector boundary
passage followed by a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a
CH HSS. A further increase to active to minor storm levels is
expected on 09 November due to the onset of a CH HSS. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on 10 November as CH
HSS effects subside. A further decrease to quiet levels is expected
during 11 - 17 November.