Okay, you've got about 30 hours to post your prediction for how the electoral vote is going to turn out. Remember, it should add up to 538 votes. I have thrown in a few of the readily available predictions. If you want to work on it seriously, RealClearPolitics.com has a front page widget, on the lower left of the main page map, if you want to work on your own specific guess. Or you can just make up a pair of numbers that add up to 538. For your edification, here are some predictions I found today: Nate Silver, Obama 307-231, Real clear politics Obama 303-235, George Will Romney 321-217, Dick Morris Romney 325-213, Dean Chambers, (the unskewed poll guy) Romney 311-227, Karl Rove Romney 279-259, Larry Sabato Obama 290-248.
Post in this thread, and we'll all give props to the one who picks it closest.
Good luck!
<gulliverfoy...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Okay, you've got about 30 hours to post your prediction for how the electoral vote is going to turn out. Remember, it should add up to 538 votes. I have thrown in a few of the readily available predictions. If you want to work on it seriously, RealClearPolitics.com has a front page widget, on the lower left of the main page map, if you want to work on your own specific guess. Or you can just make up a pair of numbers that add up to 538. For your edification, here are some predictions I found today: Nate Silver, Obama 307-231, Real clear politics Obama 303-235, George Will Romney 321-217, Dick Morris Romney 325-213, Dean Chambers, (the unskewed poll guy) Romney 311-227, Karl Rove Romney 279-259, Larry Sabato Obama 290-248.
>Post in this thread, and we'll all give props to the one who picks it closest.
>Good luck!
I've no prediction I'd feel confident about. Before Sandy, my opinion
was that Romney would win popular vote by 2 point minimum and possibly
up to 5 points, and most likely by 3.5 points. And my opinion was
that if Romney had only won popular vote by 2 points, that he still
had a 50% chance of losing the Electoral College, but that if Romney
won by 3 points or more, that the chances of his losing the Electoral
College would be near zero.
In the few days after Sandy, I think there was net swing to Obama by 3
- 4 points. I think that may be dissipating a bit the last couple of
days and the final net swing to Obama may just be a couple of points,
but it still may be too much for Romney to overcome. I think Romney
could use a couple of more days to let the political impact of Sandy
dissipate further.
Regardless, I do think it's more likely than not that Romney will
still win a popular vote majority, but if he only wins such popular
vote majority by a 1.5 point margin or less, then it's hard for me to
see how Obama loses the Electoral College, that is unless there is a
small ever-so-slight Bradley Effect in play in states such as Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin that is percolating under
the radar that could swing one or more of those states without
effecting nationwide popular vote margins beyond a trivial amount.
On Tuesday, November 6, 2012 6:12:09 AM UTC-6, smba...@aol.comnospam wrote:
> On Mon, 5 Nov 2012 11:57:27 -0800 (PST), gully
wrote:
> >Okay, you've got about 30 hours to post your prediction for how the electoral vote is going to turn out. Remember, it should add up to 538 votes. I have thrown in a few of the readily available predictions. If you want to work on it seriously, RealClearPolitics.com has a front page widget, on the lower left of the main page map, if you want to work on your own specific guess. Or you can just make up a pair of numbers that add up to 538. For your edification, here are some predictions I found today: Nate Silver, Obama 307-231, Real clear politics Obama 303-235, George Will Romney 321-217, Dick Morris Romney 325-213, Dean Chambers, (the unskewed poll guy) Romney 311-227, Karl Rove Romney 279-259, Larry Sabato Obama 290-248.
> >Post in this thread, and we'll all give props to the one who picks it closest.
> >Good luck!
> I've no prediction I'd feel confident about. Before Sandy, my opinion
> was that Romney would win popular vote by 2 point minimum and possibly
> up to 5 points, and most likely by 3.5 points. And my opinion was
> that if Romney had only won popular vote by 2 points, that he still
> had a 50% chance of losing the Electoral College, but that if Romney
> won by 3 points or more, that the chances of his losing the Electoral
> College would be near zero.
> In the few days after Sandy, I think there was net swing to Obama by 3
> - 4 points. I think that may be dissipating a bit the last couple of
> days and the final net swing to Obama may just be a couple of points,
> but it still may be too much for Romney to overcome. I think Romney
> could use a couple of more days to let the political impact of Sandy
> dissipate further.
> Regardless, I do think it's more likely than not that Romney will
> still win a popular vote majority, but if he only wins such popular
> vote majority by a 1.5 point margin or less, then it's hard for me to
> see how Obama loses the Electoral College, that is unless there is a
> small ever-so-slight Bradley Effect in play in states such as Ohio,
> Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin that is percolating under
> the radar that could swing one or more of those states without
> effecting nationwide popular vote margins beyond a trivial amount.
While I think you live in a fantasy world/alternative reality, I really hope Romney wins a narrow popular vote victory while getting thrashed (303-235). Then we can see all of the Republican whining that was not to be heard the last time the popular vote and the electoral vote favored different candidates.
Just for the record, I think that it was about 50-49-1, Obama, before Sandy and will end up about 50.5-48.5-1.
Should Obama win a fairly close election, it will be interesting to see to what extent Sandy is credited/blamed. Also wondering if the evangelical base will decide that the timing of the storm was divinely inspired, meaning god set the storm because he wanted Obama to win. This is an absurd, totally tongue in cheek comment/line of thinking, but never-the-less fun.
<gulliverfoy...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Okay, you've got about 30 hours to post your prediction for how the electoral vote is going to turn out. Remember, it should add up to 538 votes. I have thrown in a few of the readily available predictions. If you want to work on it seriously, RealClearPolitics.com has a front page widget, on the lower left of the main page map, if you want to work on your own specific guess. Or you can just make up a pair of numbers that add up to 538. For your edification, here are some predictions I found today: Nate Silver, Obama 307-231, Real clear politics Obama 303-235, George Will Romney 321-217, Dick Morris Romney 325-213, Dean Chambers, (the unskewed poll guy) Romney 311-227, Karl Rove Romney 279-259, Larry Sabato Obama 290-248.
>Post in this thread, and we'll all give props to the one who picks it closest.
>Good luck!
smball...@aol.comnospam wrote:
> I've no prediction I'd feel confident about. Before Sandy, my opinion
> was that Romney would win popular vote by 2 point minimum and possibly
> up to 5 points, and most likely by 3.5 points. And my opinion was
> that if Romney had only won popular vote by 2 points, that he still
> had a 50% chance of losing the Electoral College, but that if Romney
> won by 3 points or more, that the chances of his losing the Electoral
> College would be near zero.
> In the few days after Sandy, I think there was net swing to Obama by 3
> - 4 points. I think that may be dissipating a bit the last couple of
> days and the final net swing to Obama may just be a couple of points,
> but it still may be too much for Romney to overcome. I think Romney
> could use a couple of more days to let the political impact of Sandy
> dissipate further.
> Regardless, I do think it's more likely than not that Romney will
> still win a popular vote majority, but if he only wins such popular
> vote majority by a 1.5 point margin or less, then it's hard for me to
> see how Obama loses the Electoral College, that is unless there is a
> small ever-so-slight Bradley Effect in play in states such as Ohio,
> Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin that is percolating under
> the radar that could swing one or more of those states without
> effecting nationwide popular vote margins beyond a trivial amount.
How does it feel to be completely and utterly full of shit?
>> I've no prediction I'd feel confident about. Before Sandy, my opinion
>> was that Romney would win popular vote by 2 point minimum and possibly
>> up to 5 points, and most likely by 3.5 points. And my opinion was
>> that if Romney had only won popular vote by 2 points, that he still
>> had a 50% chance of losing the Electoral College, but that if Romney
>> won by 3 points or more, that the chances of his losing the Electoral
>> College would be near zero.
>> In the few days after Sandy, I think there was net swing to Obama by 3
>> - 4 points. I think that may be dissipating a bit the last couple of
>> days and the final net swing to Obama may just be a couple of points,
>> but it still may be too much for Romney to overcome. I think Romney
>> could use a couple of more days to let the political impact of Sandy
>> dissipate further.
>> Regardless, I do think it's more likely than not that Romney will
>> still win a popular vote majority, but if he only wins such popular
>> vote majority by a 1.5 point margin or less, then it's hard for me to
>> see how Obama loses the Electoral College, that is unless there is a
>> small ever-so-slight Bradley Effect in play in states such as Ohio,
>> Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin that is percolating under
>> the radar that could swing one or more of those states without
>> effecting nationwide popular vote margins beyond a trivial amount.
>How does it feel to be completely and utterly full of shit?
Why was what I wrote "utterly full of shit"? The very first sentence
of what I wrote was "I've no prediction I'd feel confident about". You
do understand what that means, right?
The scenarios I believed might be likely were not the ones that
happened. That doesn't mean I'm "utterly full of shit". It just
means I had far less of an idea of what was going on than I thought
and I never had a high confidence level in what I thought about this
one, which is why I wrote "I've no prediction I'd feel confident
about".
Back when Scott Walker was being recalled, I thought that would
backfire on the Dems and that he would hold onto his seat. I ended up
anticipating that one correctly. Others thought he was toast. If
someone thought Scott Walker would lose his recall election, it
doesn't mean they were "utterly full of shit". It just means they got
it wrong, just as I was wrong about this one.
Non-apology accepted. They call them nopologies, right? Just teasing; you're allowed to be wrong. Pundits (some) say that the margin cannot be explained by Sandy, but, if anything, this election proves pundits don't really know much.
BTW, although it is not quite over, the margin is currently 50.4-48.1, so I overestimated Romney and underestimated the third party candidates, but was fairly close all in all.
