betting on Bam Bam
Sam the Bam
about another trip to Caesar's Palace.
Lesnar will be a big betting favorite, so no profit there
(the profit is going with Mir). I'm thinking about a side
bet - what's the chance of a first round KO? It seems
to me a good chance Mir will be dog food in less than
5 minutes.
Let's say I can get 2 to 1, betting on a first round
stoppage... is there at least 1/3 chance Hulk can do
that? If so, it's a winner.
What about the other matches? I'm looking at this
as a businessman - that means, not predicting
who wins, but how I can make $$. Specifically,
who will likely be an underdog (according to the
betting public), but actually has a decent shot?
Sam
Tim Peters
> Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir next week... I'm thinking
> about another trip to Caesar's Palace.
>
> Lesnar will be a big betting favorite, so no profit there
> (the profit is going with Mir).
So bet on Mir! He already beat Lesnar once, and a good jiu jitsu man
(which Mir is) knows dozens of ways to submit a larger opponent. Lesnar
made a big mistake last time he met Mir, but Mir doesn't need him to make a
big mistake again -- a small mistake is enough, and Brock hasn't yet been
training long enough to know how to avoid all relevant small mistakes.
Herring and Couture don't have Mir's JJ skills, and couldn't capitalize on
those mistakes.
> I'm thinking about a side bet - what's the chance of
> a first round KO? It seems to me a good chance Mir will
> be dog food in less than 5 minutes.
Given that Lesnar /tried/ to finish Mir fast the first time out, and had to
tap out 90 seconds into the 1st round, what are the chances he'll try to be
an idiot ;-) again this time?
Of course he /could/ score a quick KO (the guy's a monster), but betting on
it is betting on Lesnar enjoying great luck. Mir's a very talented guy,
and striking isn't Brock's strong suit. Brock is more comfortable on the
ground, but that's also where Mir is most dangerous.
> Let's say I can get 2 to 1, betting on a first round
> stoppage... is there at least 1/3 chance Hulk can do
> that? If so, it's a winner.
If you can get 12 to 1, go for it ;-)
> ...
stoney
Mir is going to humiliate the filth that is lesnar.
Lotto
Lesnar's only chance to win is to knock Mir out stone cold. That is a
percentage that I won't chance .
Dave -Turner
> about another trip to Caesar's Palace.
isnt it sold out?
Bushcraftgregg
> Mir is going to humiliate the filth that is lesnar.
I don't understand the "filth" part. Because he used
to be involved in phoney entertainment?
I again, would like to see Frank win. But unless
you just happen to have money to risk throwing
around in a match such as this, you would be
foolish IMO betting on Mir.
Like I have said before. I have NEVER seen the
package that Brock brings into the octagon. I
have never seen the combination of speed and
brute strength. I have never seen, and will never
see again in the heavyweight division, someone
of Frank's pedigree, just simply being thrown all
over the ring.
It looked like Brock was fighting a lightweight. Mir
really didn't win that fight IMO, Brock simply
gave it away by his lack of experience. He is being
trained now by the best. His combination of speed
and
strength will be able to offset IMO his lack of
experience this time around.
I feel what we are witnessing is something that
will never again be seen in the UFC. Do I like the
guy? No, not really, because I almost feel it is
somewhat "unfair."
I look forward to a great night on the 11th, if
Frank can win again, I think that may point to
the only chink if Brock's armor so too speak,
and that would be learning by his mistakes.
Bushcraftgregg
Take it from me. There is no event, that is "truly"
sold out. Money talks, bottom line.
I've been to many events where it was "sold out"
or "you won't find a ticket." No such thing IMO.
TravIsGod
I think the Michael Jackson memorial may qualify as such an event...
Trav
Bushcraftgregg
Indeed Travis. :-)
Dave -Turner
> sold out. Money talks, bottom line.
Well, good luck finding a ticket and getting ripped off ;-)
Bushcraftgregg
Not I. I will be watching from home.:-)
Anthony Williams
"Sam the Bam" <samth...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:080419e9-00a8-488f...@g1g2000pra.googlegroups.com...
> Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir next week... I'm thinking
> about another trip to Caesar's Palace.
>
> Lesnar will be a big betting favorite, so no profit there
Guaranteed money though. You have to wonder what Mir's thinking; just a
couple of months ago he had 50 bone fragments removed from his knee. Lesnar
is just too big, too quick, and the 265 pound weight limit favors Lesnar
considerbly being he just makes it. I'd almost bet a kick in the nuts he's a
300 pound man on fight night. And the 7 feet of reach couldn't hurt either.
Fighters obviously don't expect a man that big to reach out and touch em
that quick, so to speak. I hope their ready for it now. He's knocked down
everyone he's fought, IIRC, Lesnar dropped Mir at least twice and if not for
a bogus stoppage I am sure the outcome would have been different that night.
(Though I talked a lot of shit about Lesnar then cause I HATE HIM. I wish
Mir would have snapped that leg. Mir probably does also. I don't see anyway
Lesnar is going to get caught in something like that again. NO WAY! He'll
just stand it up. I'd trip out if though if Mir busted out a flying heal
hook or whatever it was that made Anderson Silva tap. Short of a miracle, I
don't see Mir having a shot.
rollman
"Anthony Williams" <Truth...@swbell.net> wrote in message
news:9Ex4m.5027$Jb1....@flpi144.ffdc.sbc.com...
>
> "Sam the Bam" <samth...@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:080419e9-00a8-488f...@g1g2000pra.googlegroups.com...
>> Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir next week... I'm thinking
>> about another trip to Caesar's Palace.
>>
>> Lesnar will be a big betting favorite, so no profit there
>
> Guaranteed money though. You have to wonder what Mir's thinking; just a
> couple of months ago he had 50 bone fragments removed from his knee.
> Lesnar is just too big, too quick, and the 265 pound weight limit favors
> Lesnar considerbly being he just makes it. I'd almost bet a kick in the
> nuts he's a 300 pound man on fight night. And the 7 feet of reach couldn't
> hurt either. Fighters obviously don't expect a man that big to reach out
> and touch em that quick, so to speak. I hope their ready for it now. He's
> knocked down everyone he's fought, IIRC, Lesnar dropped Mir at least twice
> and if not for a bogus stoppage I am sure the outcome would have been
> different that night. (Though I talked a lot of shit about Lesnar then
> cause I HATE HIM. I wish Mir would have snapped that leg. Mir probably
> does also. I don't see anyway Lesnar is going to get caught in something
> like that again. NO WAY! He'll just stand it up. I'd trip out if though if
> Mir busted out a flying heal hook or whatever it was that made Anderson
> Silva tap. Short of a miracle, I don't see Mir having a shot.
>
I really don't see why everyone just assumes Brock is going to win...
EXACTLY the same thing was said last time and it lasted 2 minutes. What
has Brock learned in 12 months that he didn't already know then besides a
very limited list of "what not to do when fighting a really REALLY
experienced BJJ guy"
People keep saying 'oh he'll learn from his mistakes' but its simply not
that easy. you don't just go off and learn in 12 months what most guys have
been learning for their lives...
IMHO Brock has two ways of winning.. leaning up against mir on the cage for
25 minutes or taking him down and managing to shut him down for 25 minutes
and in doing so, not make a mistake for Mir to capitalise on which is a LOT
harder than I think people assume..
don't get me wrong I'm not a Mir nuthugger and I don't really give a toss
who wins that fight as the HW division is stale and bland at the best of
times but the amount that MIr has been counted out suprises me....
also, think about the Mir you saw vs Nog.. not the Mir you saw vs Brock 1,
much improved striking and footwork....
Anthony Williams
"rollman" <roll...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:4a533f61$1...@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
for a reason. And you cannot tell me you haven't seen a massive improvement
in all of Lesnar's fights. I didn't get to see Nog vs Mir until recently
(one of the few I couldn't order). I couldn't believe how close Mir was
standing to Nog; if does that against Lesnar it's gonna be a short fight.
>
>
Sam the Bam
> > Short of a miracle, I don't see Mir having a shot.
>
> mir on the cage for 25 minutes or taking him down and
> managing to shut him down for 25 minutes
> and in doing so, not make a mistake for Mir to capitalise on
yeah, those are the only ways he can win...
By the way, have you seen:
An obvious forgery, like the Apollo 11 moon landing...
Sam
rollman
and you're saying that Mir and Randy have similar standup?
Obviously Brock can knock him down with punches, as can Mir to be Frank (pun
intended) but I dunno.. Mir looked VERY good against Nog...
In fight 1, Mir had no real idea what Brock was bringing to the cage and
still won, whereas Brock did but lost. This fight, Mir goes in knowing
exactly what Brock can, and more importantly, can't do..
rollman
I've seen imporovement in Brocks composure... but not as much in his
skills.. He's faced two wrestlers in Herring and Randy. Both of them he was
able to use his size to out power them. Randy tires people out in the
clinch while using dirty boxing to score points... hard to do that when
you're against a guy who doesn't have to do much of anything to control you
in that clinch instead...
this time he isn't facing a wrestler.
Anywa I don't think its a giveaway either way, which is the point of my
original post. I'm just suprised at how 'counted out' Mir seems to be.
>
>
>>
>>
>
James L. Hankins
"Sam the Bam" <samth...@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:080419e9-00a8-488f...@g1g2000pra.googlegroups.com...
I'd say getting 2:1 or more on Lesnar winning in Round 1 would be a great
bet.
James L. Hankins
> Sometimes it just comes down to Newtowian physics. They have weight
> classes for a reason. And you cannot tell me you haven't seen a massive
> improvement in all of Lesnar's fights. I didn't get to see Nog vs Mir
> until recently (one of the few I couldn't order). I couldn't believe how
> close Mir was standing to Nog; if does that against Lesnar it's gonna be a
> short fight.
Yep. Lesnar should be a huge favorite here.