PS-X (Sony Playstation) my predictions
John Gordon
IN JAPAN
The Sony Playstation will absolutely dominate the high end Japanese
market, just from the aspect of raw power. The Sega Saturn will get
BLOWN AWAY in Japan, it costs as much as the Playstation (roughly) with
about a third of its processing power.
The Ultra-64 (If it ever comes out) will dominate the low end Japanese
market, Sega barely has a toe with its Genesis console in Japan so I'm
not expecting the 32x to do well or even be released in the Japan.
The 3DO may be able to get a marketshare somewhere in the middle, its
up in the air in my opinion.
IN THE US
The 32x will be the big seller in America. Sega already leads the 16-bit
US market and the add on will will but the nail in the coffin of Nintedo's
chance of recapturing the lead in the US, until the Ultra-64 comes out.
The Sony Playstation MIGHT dominate the high-end US market again just
because of its raw power, its up to Sony's marketing. Sega's Saturn
has a definate chance in the States, but again it will all be up to
marketing. I'm placing my bets on the Sony machine beating the Saturn
back into a niche market.
Due to a lack of software I really see the Jaguar falling to a teeny
tiny niche market. Yes Jaguar owners I realize, that (awsome) software
is comming "soon" but I really think its TOO LATE!
The 3DO is a wild card, it may fall into oblivion or it may appeal to
to a middle market falling between the SUPER SYSTEMS:Sony PS and Saturn
and the low end systems. Probably the 3DO will compete with the 32x.
These are my opinions, comment or flame starting now. -Matt.
ClayCip
business and likely will fall on its ass very hard like Phillips did with
the CD-i and Pioneer did with the LaserActive. If you thought 3DO or
Atari's software support was bad, just wait until what Sony coughs up.
Every game will likely be about as good as the Panasonic label offerings
for the 3DO.
PS: The big poster for Mortal Kombat II on display at Babbages here had a
list of platforms the game was coming out for and made *NO MENTION* of 3DO
or Atari. So much for that rumour, eh?
Kendall Gelner
John Gordon <jjgo...@oasys.dt.navy.mil> wrote:
<Japan predictions removed - sound OK to me>
>
>
>IN THE US
>The 32x will be the big seller in America. Sega already leads the 16-bit
>US market and the add on will will but the nail in the coffin of Nintedo's
>chance of recapturing the lead in the US, until the Ultra-64 comes out.
>
>The Sony Playstation MIGHT dominate the high-end US market again just
>because of its raw power, its up to Sony's marketing. Sega's Saturn
>has a definate chance in the States, but again it will all be up to
>marketing. I'm placing my bets on the Sony machine beating the Saturn
>back into a niche market.
>
>Due to a lack of software I really see the Jaguar falling to a teeny
>tiny niche market. Yes Jaguar owners I realize, that (awsome) software
>is comming "soon" but I really think its TOO LATE!
There is one flaw in your thinking - you say the Jaguar will fail for
lack of software. But the two dominating systems you list above have
even LESS software than the Jaguar right now, as well as being
handicapped by the fact that they do not even EXIST yet!
Would it affect your thinking at all if Atari really did have 20 or
thirty titles out by the end of November? It should... and if it
doesm, then you have to see they have a decent chance against the
kludgy 32X system (seperate power cables? Can you say "Cable
Monster") with six titles, vs 20 or thirty jaguar titles... I'm not
saying they won't sell over a million 32X's to the masses, just that
they won't sell 20 million. :-)
>
>The 3DO is a wild card, it may fall into oblivion or it may appeal to
>to a middle market falling between the SUPER SYSTEMS:Sony PS and Saturn
>and the low end systems. Probably the 3DO will compete with the 32x.
I think 3DO has a pretty strong chace, with the same reasoning as
above - plus they have a goodly number of titles already. The price
drop, and three games included, may just put it in a low enough
bracket to take off.
These are my thoughts, all flames are irrelivant 'cause you if you
disagree you are wrong.
--
---> Kendall Gelner (kge...@nyx.cs.du.edu)
"It's a damn poor mind indeed that can't think of at least two ways to
spell a word."
--- Samuel Adams
William Fang
: What is this Sony playstation? Sony has *no* reputation in the videogames
: business and likely will fall on its ass very hard like Phillips did with
: the CD-i and Pioneer did with the LaserActive. If you thought 3DO or
: Atari's software support was bad, just wait until what Sony coughs up.
: Every game will likely be about as good as the Panasonic label offerings
: for the 3DO.
Sony now owns Psygnosis. They did produce quite a few interesting games.
Sony have also purchased a few other game developers (whether they were
any good is another thread). Sony have been positioning themselves in
the entertainment market with strategic purchases of a big name American
film production and music recording house. The amount of cross-advertising
that they could generate would be phenomenal (sp?).
I'm pretty sure Jez Sans, Chris Green, et al at Argonaut have been working
on titles as well. Panasonic didn't make games for the 3D0, it was other
ISV's.
- Bill
Wayne Magor
>What is this Sony playstation? Sony has *no* reputation in the videogames
>business and likely will fall on its ass very hard like Phillips did with
>the CD-i and Pioneer did with the LaserActive.
Actually, I have been told by a Sony stockholder that Sony has tried to get
into the video games market before and failed. He suspects this will be
yet another failure, but he doesn't care since it is trivial compared to
all the products Sony makes (a failure won't affect its stock price).
>If you thought 3DO or Atari's software support was bad, just wait until
>what Sony coughs up. Every game will likely be about as good as the
>Panasonic label offerings for the 3DO.
There are some other companies making games for it, although not nearly
as many as for the 3DO. I suspect every game made for the Sony PS-X will
be ported to the 3DO-M2, since the 3DO-M2 will be MUCH more powerful.
Gordon Craick
>IN JAPAN
>The Sony Playstation will absolutely dominate the high end
>Japanese market, just from the aspect of raw power. The Sega
>Saturn will get BLOWN AWAY in Japan, it costs as much as the
>Playstation (roughly) with about a third of its processing
>power.
I very much doubt it. While Sony does look as though they are going to
have an impressive machine, the Saturn by the time it is released will be
equally as impressive i would say. The Japanese aren't necessarily going
to go for the most powerful machine straight away, they, as with most
serious gamers, are interested in the game, not a silly logo on the
front. The Saturn has some 50+ games in development, while the PS-X only
has around 20-30, a large margin. The Saturn already has the big names,
Virtua this that and the other, Daytona, Sonic, plus many, many more..
>The Ultra-64 (If it ever comes out) will dominate the low end
>Japanese market, Sega barely has a toe with its Genesis console
>in Japan so I'm not expecting the 32x to do well or even be
>released in the Japan. The 3DO may be able to get a marketshare
>somewhere in the middle, its up in the air in my opinion.
You appear to make a contradiction here! The Ultra-64 will supposedly be
the most powerful of the lot, and yet you say here that it will dominate
the "low end" of the market. While the U64 will probably be much cheaper,
i would never discount its performance, especially with SG bits riding on
board. The U64 will have many awesome games also, and will be a strong
competitor to the Saturn, 3Do, and in fact any other system - simply due
to the fact that Nintendo has many $$$'s more than the smaller companies,
and nows how to manipulate the market to their advantage...
>The 32x will be the big seller in America. Sega already leads
>the 16-bit US market and the add on will will but the nail in
>the coffin of Nintedo's chance of recapturing the lead in the
>US, until the Ultra-64 comes out.
Don't forget, the U64 will be released only around 6-8 months after the
32X in the United States, which is not a long time really. The 32X is
also going to cost _money_. I know that is hard to understand for some of
you :), however $150 is still a bit too much for the average kid who owns
a Genesis. Sure, for those who have more money, but those types will go
straight for the U64 or Saturn...
>The Sony Playstation MIGHT dominate the high-end US market
>again just because of its raw power, its up to Sony's
>marketing. Sega's Saturn has a definate chance in the States,
>but again it will all be up to marketing. I'm placing my bets
>on the Sony machine beating the Saturn back into a niche
>market.
A lot depends on marketing. Nintendo can manipulate the press so easily
they do it now without thinking about it. How many Nintendo dedicated
magazines are there? Now how many even have a Sony product _mentioned_.
Sony is going to have to go out for a completely different approach, and
that will need to involve a much wider scope, for probably much less
effect. Again, the Saturn is much more promising software wise, and when
it comes down to it, hardware performance is a moot point when the
systems are this advanced...
>Due to a lack of software I really see the Jaguar falling to a
>teeny tiny niche market. Yes Jaguar owners I realize, that
>(awsome) software is comming "soon" but I really think its TOO
>LATE!
I agree with that...The Jaguar will only sell because it has a handful of
good, and relatively cheaper titles. It has to be argued whether $250
makes the investment of say, 3 games at $60 worthwhile. How many people
really keep more than 5 games for their system at once anyway?
my 2c worth..
Gordon Craick
pr...@zikzak.apana.org.au
--
Gordon Craick -> pr...@zikzak.apana.org.au - my short boring tag (tm)
Gordon Craick
>here had a list of platforms the game was coming out for and
>made *NO MENTION* of 3DO or Atari. So much for that rumour,
>eh?
MK2 will never come out on the 3DO or Jaguar. Sega and Nintendo paid big
bucks to get it on their system, and licensing issues with Acclaim being
complicated, there seems little hope of either of these games coming out
on the systems in future. MK3 is a different story, as Midway will hold
the exclusive rights to the game when they get around to making it..
regards,
franklin
: Here are my predictions...
: IN JAPAN
: The Sony Playstation will absolutely dominate the high end Japanese
: market, just from the aspect of raw power. The Sega Saturn will get
: BLOWN AWAY in Japan, it costs as much as the Playstation (roughly) with
: about a third of its processing power.
: The Ultra-64 (If it ever comes out) will dominate the low end Japanese
: market, Sega barely has a toe with its Genesis console in Japan so I'm
: not expecting the 32x to do well or even be released in the Japan.
Nearly everything I've heard indicates that the Ultra-64 will be a definite
*high* end machine - definitely beating the Saturn, and probably the Sony.
The Ultra uses a faster CPU (R4000 series v.s. R3000 series in the Sony),
and is supposed to have faster polygon capabilities.
Now of course, nearly everything I've heard has come from Nintendo, so
it's probably somewhat vapourous, and God knows, I'd prefer Mario et. al.
to die a horrible and permanent death, but I don't see how you can say
the above. (except for wishful thinking...)
: The 3DO may be able to get a marketshare somewhere in the middle, its
: up in the air in my opinion.
: IN THE US
: The 32x will be the big seller in America. Sega already leads the 16-bit
: US market and the add on will will but the nail in the coffin of Nintedo's
: chance of recapturing the lead in the US, until the Ultra-64 comes out.
: The Sony Playstation MIGHT dominate the high-end US market again just
: because of its raw power, its up to Sony's marketing. Sega's Saturn
: has a definate chance in the States, but again it will all be up to
: marketing. I'm placing my bets on the Sony machine beating the Saturn
: back into a niche market.
: Due to a lack of software I really see the Jaguar falling to a teeny
: tiny niche market. Yes Jaguar owners I realize, that (awsome) software
: is comming "soon" but I really think its TOO LATE!
: The 3DO is a wild card, it may fall into oblivion or it may appeal to
: to a middle market falling between the SUPER SYSTEMS:Sony PS and Saturn
: and the low end systems. Probably the 3DO will compete with the 32x.
: These are my opinions, comment or flame starting now. -Matt.
The other thing is, that in all the "puff pieces" I see on the Sony, the
actual screenshots tend to look, well, indifferent. The dinosaur pics
look incredible, but with a lot of the other texture mapped games, the textures
and polygons don't seem to mesh too well and it's really hard to even make
out what's supposed to be being rendered.
At least Sony aren't showing raytraced pictures at 2000x2000 resolution as
if that's what the games will look like, which seems to be Nintendo's favourite
trick at the moment.
Dave
Wayne Magor
>Nearly everything I've heard indicates that the Ultra-64 will be a definite
>*high* end machine - definitely beating the Saturn, and probably the Sony.
>The Ultra uses a faster CPU (R4000 series v.s. R3000 series in the Sony),
>and is supposed to have faster polygon capabilities.
What will be the downfall of the Ultra-64 and the PS-X is that they are
cartridge-based machines instead of CD-ROM. This makes the software MUCH
more expensive to produce (not even counting the very high fees Nintendo
charges).
My prediction is that with several companies making players, the 3DO players
will fall low enough to grab a good-sized market share. Then, the software
prices will start to fall due to the lower cost to produce it.
Marty Chinn
>
> In article <33td4j$m...@beta.qmw.ac.uk>, kao...@dcs.qmw.ac.uk (franklin) writ
>
Actually PS-X is CD-ROM based.
--
drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US (Marty Chinn)
The Land of Garg BBS -- +1 408 378-5108
John Gordon
.>*high* end machine - definitely beating the Saturn, and probably the Sony.
.>The Ultra uses a faster CPU (R4000 series v.s. R3000 series in the Sony),
.>and is supposed to have faster polygon capabilities.
I won't believe the Ultra-64 till I at LEAST see the hardware in picts.
.What will be the downfall of the Ultra-64 and the PS-X is that they are
.cartridge-based machines instead of CD-ROM. This makes the software MUCH
.more expensive to produce (not even counting the very high fees Nintendo
.charges).
Woah! The PS-X IS a CD-based machine with !5! Megabytes of RAM, at least
that's what I read just recently.
.My prediction is that with several companies making players, the 3DO players
.will fall low enough to grab a good-sized market share. Then, the software
.prices will start to fall due to the lower cost to produce it.
The 32x WILL DOMINATE THE LOW END AMERICAN MARKET. Why? Because parents
will be willing to shell out $150 this Christmas season for their little
kids, and I hate to tell you but its the children and young teenagers
that make up a large portion of the market. There are too many Genesis
systems out their with 'ugh' Sonic attached to them.
-Matt.
Wayne Magor
> Actually PS-X is CD-ROM based.
Oops, you're right. Is the Saturn CD-ROM based? I know the Nintendo is not.
jon stern
It seems that when it comes to the cost for the consumer, the cheaper cost of CD
production does not get passed on. Instead
--
--------------------------------------------------
Jon Stern
Dept. Electronic & Electrical Enginnering
University of Sheffield
Sheffield S1 3JD
UK
__ __ __ __
/___ heffield /___ ilicon /___ ystems / _ roup
___/ ___/ ___/ \__/
---------------------------------------------------
jon stern
Whoops! I pressed the wrong button.
What I was going to say was that there is too much profiteering with CD software.
Okay some games may take more to write. But there are many games which just have
a little bit of extra stuff (intro, etc) and still charge the ridiculously high
prices of card software.
I hope this changes. There has been a big fall in the sales of games. Some people
claim it's because people are waiting for the next generation of machines. But I
think it's because games prices are far too high
Dave Mansell
that).
-------------------------------------------------------------
| Dave Mansell - Citadel Software Ltd, Cornwall, UK |
| This message brought to you via: |
| AMIGA CD32 with SX1, 6MB, 420MB Hard Disk, FMV, keyboard, |
| floppy drive and US Robotics Modem. Now try that on a 3DO |
-------------------------------------------------------------
Robert A. Jung
>The 32x WILL DOMINATE THE LOW END AMERICAN MARKET. Why? Because parents
>will be willing to shell out $150 this Christmas season for their little
>kids, and I hate to tell you but its the children and young teenagers
>that make up a large portion of the market. There are too many Genesis
>systems out their with 'ugh' Sonic attached to them.
That's a very good theory. I can only find one flaw with it, and that is
the possibility that Genesis owners will NOT WANT to get the 32X.
Why? Because these young Genesis owners are already aware of the Saturn,
and think it's coming "real soon now" (as early as April 1995?). They may
figure that buying a 32X at Christmas and then begging for a Saturn next
Summer/Fall/Winter would be a bad tactic. "Mom, I just gotta get the Saturn!"
"What? Honey, you just got the 32X last time, what's wrong with it?" Then
there may be the self-proclaimed saavy consumers who think of the 32X merely
as a stopgap device that Sega is using to keep the market share before the
Saturn arrives, and shy away from it as they expect 32X support to die soon
after the Saturn is released.
This is all theory, of course. But if this does pan out, I can see lots
of Genesis owners who sit "on the sidelines" this Christmas, and sales of the
32X become much smaller than expected...
--R.J.
B-)
//////////////////////////////////////|\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Send whatevers to rj...@netcom.com | If it has pixels, I'm for it.
--------------------------------------+------------------------------Lynx up!
"You weren't chosen because you are the best pilot in the Air Force. You were
chosen because you are the class clown and frankly, you're expendable."
Alan L.M. Buxey
: What will be the downfall of the Ultra-64 and the PS-X is that they are
: cartridge-based machines instead of CD-ROM. This makes the software MUCH
errr, where did you hear about the PS-X being cartridge based?????
from what i've seen, it runs CD's... 300K/s drive with FMV optional.
alan
From Alan, replies appreciated!___ __ _ __ ___ _ WWW - soon
.----------------------. ///\\ |\\ /| || // ' /\\ __ __ 32
| Alan Buxey | __ /// \\ | \\ /|| ||(( __ / \\ // ||\\
|kc...@uk.ac.susx.solx1| \\\///----\\| \/ || || \\_||/----\\ \\_ ||//
`-I use PGP...do you??-' \XX/Amiga - Now There's A Reason For Not Owning A PC.
-------I also read the InterNet Amiga magazine, "Amiga Report", do you?-------
Marty Chinn
>
> In article <yZwVRc...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US>, Marty Chinn <drkn...@Garg.Cam
>
> > Actually PS-X is CD-ROM based.
>
> Oops, you're right. Is the Saturn CD-ROM based? I know the Nintendo is not.
Saturn is supposed to be both CD and Cart.
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
>> > Actually PS-X is CD-ROM based.
>> Oops, you're right. Is the Saturn CD-ROM based? I know the Nintendo
is not.
>Saturn is supposed to be both CD and Cart.
Where did you hear that? I was sure that it was only CD based.
**Chris C**
Marty Chinn
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
>> >> > Actually PS-X is CD-ROM based.
>> >> Oops, you're right. Is the Saturn CD-ROM based? I know the
Nintendo
>> is not.
>> >Saturn is supposed to be both CD and Cart.
>> Where did you hear that? I was sure that it was only CD based.
>> **Chris C**
><points at a picture of the system in any game magazine>
Umm.. Like I said are you sure you are not talking about the 32X (which is
CD and cart based via an add on for the genesis that upgrades it as well
as the SEGA CD to 32bits). Every thing that I heard about the Saturn
however is that it will be CD based only.
**Chris C**
Marty Chinn
I'm sure. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about when ti comes to this
type of stuff. Pick up any magazine, read any article, or look at any
picture of the Saturn and you will see its a cartridge/CD-rom unit. It
even distinctly says Sega CD-ROM/Cartridge on the unit. Don't go by what
you hear, go by the pictures and articles about the unit.
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
>I'm sure. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about when ti comes to this
>type of stuff. Pick up any magazine, read any article, or look at any
>picture of the Saturn and you will see its a cartridge/CD-rom unit. It
>even distinctly says Sega CD-ROM/Cartridge on the unit. Don't go by what
>you hear, go by the pictures and articles about the unit.
-In Die Hard Game Fan Volume 2, issue 7 pg. 143
-in an interview with a japanese game developer:
<in the discussion about the sega 32bit systems>
<comments made about Saturn>
"GF: Is it going to be a cartridge based or CD-ROM?"
"MM: CD-ROM. I don't think cartridge will last that long. Probably a
year or two"
-Later in the magazine in the camparison of systems
-on page 146
"UNDER SEGA Saturn | UNDER SEGA Super 32x
" |
"Format: 2.6 X speed CD drive (390k/sec)| Format: CART/CD
" |
-Also in one of the Video games Faq sheets:
"... Sega Saturn?
The Saturn's release date is supposed to be November 1994 in Japan at a
price
of 50000 yen. It is a CD-ROM system; the similar Jupiter by Sega is not."
There is another FAQ on the net that also states that the SATURN is A
CD-rom
based system and makes no mention of carts being used, but I am having
trouble pulling it up in order to quote it.
So you see I don't just state what I think but I indeed base it on what
notable
sources say.
**Chris C**
Marty Chinn
Very odd, cuz every picture i see, including in japanese mags, are
showing the CD/Cartridge unit. Look for a picture. It shows the cartridge
port. It even specifically says CD-ROM/Cartridge on the unit. Game Fan
Issue 2 is quite old. I'm looking at June-August magazines with pictures
of the system from the Tokyo Toy Show which shows the an actual unit,
with a cartridge slot and cd rom unit
July 1994 Video Games Magazine
"Perhaps most significantly, the design of this prototype makes it clear
that the Saturn will not be a CD-only machine. Not only is there a
cartridge port near the rear of the unit, but the prototype is also
emblazoned witht he following legend "Sega Saturn - Dual CPU Multi
Amusement Player - Sega CD-ROM/Cartridge"
They even show a picture of it.
Whoops i just reread your message, volume 2 not issue 2, and its issue
7. I'm digging out my magazines trying to find info on it, but if you
keep up in the rec.games.video.sega, you will see the talk is a cartridge
and cd rom unit, not just cd rom.
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
>Very odd, cuz every picture i see, including in japanese mags, are
>showing the CD/Cartridge unit. Look for a picture. It shows the cartridge
>port. It even specifically says CD-ROM/Cartridge on the unit. Game Fan
>Issue 2 is quite old. I'm looking at June-August magazines with pictures
>of the system from the Tokyo Toy Show which shows the an actual unit,
>with a cartridge slot and cd rom unit
>July 1994 Video Games Magazine
>"Perhaps most significantly, the design of this prototype makes it clear
>that the Saturn will not be a CD-only machine. Not only is there a
>cartridge port near the rear of the unit, but the prototype is also
>emblazoned witht he following legend "Sega Saturn - Dual CPU Multi
>Amusement Player - Sega CD-ROM/Cartridge"
Hmm.. Maybe they have changed it recently and I was not aware of it.
Huh wierd. Different sources different info.
>They even show a picture of it.
>Whoops i just reread your message, volume 2 not issue 2, and its issue
>7. I'm digging out my magazines trying to find info on it, but if you
>keep up in the rec.games.video.sega, you will see the talk is a cartridge
>and cd rom unit, not just cd rom.
>
True I do not keep up with rec.games.video.sega (crappy interface too
expensive for too many newsgroups, but this will change in a few days)
Well maybe I will pop in for a bit to see what all the talk is about. But
TWO 32-bit systems that are both CD/cart, thats strange unless one will be
compatible with the other but other wise this does not make much since and
would confuse the public even more.
**Chris C**
Marty Chinn
Well at the 1994 Winter CES it was a Cartridge and CD Rom unit. And now
at the Tokyo Toy Show on June 2nd, 1994, it was still a cartridge and
CD-ROM unit. I don't think it has ever been a cd rom unit alone. There
are pictures in Game Pro July 1994, EGM June 1994, and EGM2 July 1994
showing pictures of the system and its cart and cd. The EGM2 shows an
even moren updated picture of the sytem than that of the EGM and Game Pro
mags since the logo is now on it and the words on the system are changed
a bit.
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
You may be right It is just that all the sources that I have looked at on
saturn have pointed at a CD only system. I will check on this however to
clear things up, I usually don't read EGM and have been looking at game
Fan up till now (still bad IMO but has better pictures of games). And
which EGM2 is that? is it the second issue or the first one, because I
only have the second issue.
Did you ever find that issue of Die Hard? or look at any of those video
game FAQ sheets?
**Chris C**
Marty Chinn
I haven't looked through my Game Fan issues. Its the first issue of EGM2.
As for the FAQ i believe it says CD and Cart, but i can double check.
There is a FAQ just about the saturn.
ChrisC4622
<drkn...@Garg.Campbell.CA.US> writes:
Well I have been only looking at the general video games FAQs that
compares all the systems. But I guess I will check out the Saturn FAQ, if
nothing else to see how it compares to 3DO and the future add on.
**Chris C**