3do Stock prices, reflect its future.
Jene Martin
the past year its steadly dropped.Dead!
Greg Bemis
You've got a lot to learn about reading the Stock Market.
Greg Bemis -
FoolProof Labs
"Evil! Evil! Impolite is Evil!!"
Kwang Soo Suh
Mark Maupin
>
>the 3do closed tuesday at 9 3/4. 3do started around 40 or so, but over
>the past year its steadly dropped.Dead!
>
>
>
I wouldn't write 3DO off just yet. Ever heard of a company called
Oracle? Their stock hit $4 a share (adjusted for stock split) and it's
now at $44. Everyone had written them off, too. Williams Industries
who makes video games, pinball machines, etc, stock hit $1.75 in 1991
and today it closed over $21. I remember watching Borland go from $7 to
$86 and now it's back at $7.
If 3DO were to ever get 10 million machines sold, their stock could
trade at $200 per share. This assumes each user buying 10 titles per
year and 3DO getting $3 royalty per disk. 10 million users X 10 games
per year X $3 per game equals $300 million per year. Assuming
100 million in annual expenses ( this is higher than current spending),
this would leave 200 million in profit. 3DO has 22+ million shares
outstanding. This works out to $9.09 per share in annual earnings. If
the stock traded at a P/E of 22, then the share price would work out to
$200 per share. This scenario does not include earnings from 3DO Studio
ot 3DO Direct.
A rosy scenario? ... Yes. Impossible....NO.
Andrewf Fenic
>the 3do closed tuesday at 9 3/4. 3do started around 40 or so, but over
>the past year its steadly dropped.Dead!
the way back into the mid 20's before its latest drop.
Clearly this is a highly speculative technology issue that can move
dramatically up or down on any news. Assuming Playstation fails in the US
as most informed analysts are predicting, 3DO could easily go all the
back to 40 or beyond.
3DO certainly has the better software and much more of it. With the M2,
it will have hardware that is at least 5 times as powerful as anything else
on the market. With a rapidly expanding US market share (witness Christmas
1994 sales) and increased name recognition (see the latest press release),
this should ensure 3DO remains the dominant next generation system in the
US for at least the next few years.
As further evidence of your naivety, 3DO stock is starting to move up again
on better than expected quarterly results (4x the revenue of one year ago).
Andy
Corrode
rise to 40 shortly after coming out, and has fluctuated wildly since. To
look at one day's stock price as a measure of a company's viability is
naive.
Regards,
Corrode
TROY HOUGH
: the 3do closed tuesday at 9 3/4. 3do started around 40 or so, but over
: the past year its steadly dropped.Dead!
The last (2) days it has went up to (11). I think people should
invest in this...
Troy H., UNL
Greg Limes
In rec.games.video.3do Jene Martin <jma...@ionet.net> said:
>the 3do closed tuesday at 9 3/4. 3do started around 40 or so, but over the past
>year its steadly dropped.Dead!
In article <3hbf8q$1...@tuna.hooked.net> si...@tuna.hooked.net (Greg Bemis) writes:
| You've got a lot to learn about reading the Stock Market.
He also needs a better stock history...
3DO stock started at 15 or so, and went on a temporary speculative
wild hop up to about 44 before popping back down to where it is now.
Interested parties can check the recent stock graphcs at MIT's WWW site,
http://www.ai.mit.edu/stocks/graph?THDO
or even FTP the complete stock history,
ftp://ftp.ai.mit.edu/pub/stocks/results/THDO
(At least, I *think* this file still goes back that far).
--
-- Greg Limes li...@3do.com, li...@netcom.com
"Your reality check is in the E-mail"
Not speaking for my employer, of course
PGP key available on request
Hendrik Rood
Philips Electronics NV has also been written off in the end of the eighties
after a 2.5 billion dollar loss and a massive restructuring.
There lowest stockrate was about 17 guilders ($10) during 1993 en 1994
Philips rose back to 59 guilders ($34).
The difference is that Philips employes 250.000 workers!
It is also very interesting to look at Sony stock-prizes. After Sony has
announced a 3 billion dollar loss for 1994.
Stock prize is not a good measure for marketing and sales success of products.
It is a measure of company-management keeping costs down and prizes up!
Otherwise a take over mostly follows and a change in management.
As has been done at Philips and Sony (and IBM to name a same kind of
company with massive losses).
Hendrik Rood
---------- O O OO OO OOO Ooo
[---------][---------] |===| \-/
|#######| |### ###| | # |__| |_
| |--| |--| \
O-----O O-----O O O-----O---\
Travis Guy
>dramatically up or down on any news. Assuming Playstation fails in the US
>as most informed analysts are predicting, 3DO could easily go all the
that, could you please direct me to your sources of information?
--
Travis Guy - Editor - Atari Explorer Online Magazine +
Please EMail me at: aeo...@genie.geis.com | "Oh, I changed it to
AEO subscriptions: stzmagazi...@virginia.edu | 'Trust Everyone.'
FTP latest AEOs from rahul.net :pub/wilsont/AEO | Didn't I tell you?"
On WWW: http://www.dl.ac.uk/MISC/ATARI/atari.html | --Fox Mulder
"The Premier Online Resource, Recommended By Atari" + The X-Files
Greg Bemis
> You could probably find a better teacher,
>although he might know something, being the owner of an (correct me if I'm
>wrong, Greg) entertainment software company.
>Regardless, the price of stock is not a company's balance sheet. It is a
>reflection of market value and investor performance. All of which is to
say
>nothing about the quality of their products. The value of 3DO as a
company is
>irrelevant to the play value of the system. An argument of the form "The
3DO
>player SUX because 3DO stock is in the toilet," in addition to being
juvenile,
>is not valid. Key premises are missing.
Well . . . You're close, Jonah. I am part owner of an entertaiment
software testing and evaluation company. So, yes I do know a bit about the
stock market (at least how a hype ridden industry like this can wreak havoc
with prices. All in all, I think many others have sufficently explained
the situation to poor, misunderstood Jene. 'Nuff said??
--
James A. Squires
>Morris A. Davis (mod...@econ.sas.upenn.edu) wrote:
>: This is not a bash on the 3do product, which is excellent. If 3do makes
>: huge profits, it will not be due to its current hardware/software
>: liscencing scheme, however, it will be due to it production of an
>: excellent product. My claim is the lack of vertical integration (not
>: manufacturing its own hardware) is hurting its profits now.
>Good post Morris, and I agree completely with your analysis. The 3do
>strategy seemed good to me at first, but it suffers from the flaw
>you point out, which is not insignificant. Nobody who is making
>the hardware can really use it as a loss leader and that is a problem.
Well, wouldn't you concider the stock give away to lower HW prices a
type of loss-leader?
And the liscensing scheme Adobe used for Postscript seems to have worked.
Heck, 3DO "can survive" just with one employee, sitting in a little
closet cashing royalty checks.
Maybee this should move to r.g.v.a...
-JAS
Bruce Prescott
Davis) writes:
>Greg Limes (li...@freeside.3do.com) wrote:
>
>: In rec.games.video.3do Jene Martin <jma...@ionet.net> said:
>: >the 3do closed tuesday at 9 3/4. 3do started around 40 or so, but
over the past
>: >year its steadly dropped.Dead!
>
>: In article <3hbf8q$1...@tuna.hooked.net> si...@tuna.hooked.net (Greg
Bemis) writes:
>: | You've got a lot to learn about reading the Stock Market.
>
>: He also needs a better stock history...
>
>: 3DO stock started at 15 or so, and went on a temporary speculative
>: wild hop up to about 44 before popping back down to where it is now.
>
>People don't invest to lose money - and the people that bought at 40
>took a bath.
>
>I don't believe in "stock bubbles" (although the Japanese land market
>speculation that led to the crash of the Nikkei (?) challenges that
>belief) - so, I think that the stock dropped because 3do "dropped the
>ball" at some point.
>
>Morris
>PhD student in Economics (just said this to add credibility to my
argument)
>
If anyone would spend time reviewing the circumstances that led to 3DO
stock selling at up to $46 a share in the fall of 1993, I think they
will find that there was a "bubble" in technology stocks at that time.
3DO stock rose dramatically, along with other technology stocks, after
Bell Atlantic and TCI announced that they were going to merge in order
to dominate the future "information superhighway." When Bell Atlantic
and TCI announced that the merger was off, the momentum players in the
stock market moved out of technology stocks. 3DO stock fell along with
a lot of other technology stocks. While other technology stocks
rebounded since that time, 3DO has not. That has been due to the lack
of stellar sales in the U.S. market in 1993 and the corresponding red
ink.
Bruce
Greg Bemis
>Morris A. Davis (mod...@econ.sas.upenn.edu) wrote:
>
>: This is not a bash on the 3do product, which is excellent. If 3do makes
>: huge profits, it will not be due to its current hardware/software
>: liscencing scheme, however, it will be due to it production of an
>: excellent product. My claim is the lack of vertical integration (not
>: manufacturing its own hardware) is hurting its profits now.
>
>Good post Morris, and I agree completely with your analysis. The 3do
strategy
>seemed good to me at first, but it suffers from the flaw
>you point out, which is not insignificant. Nobody who is making the
hardware
>can really use it as a loss leader and that is a problem.
>
>doug
I can't believe it. Intelligent discussion on r.g.v.3do. Will wonders never
cease? I could really start to like this :-)
--
Morris A. Davis
: >
: If anyone would spend time reviewing the circumstances that led to 3DO
: will find that there was a "bubble" in technology stocks at that time.
: 3DO stock rose dramatically, along with other technology stocks, after
: Bell Atlantic and TCI announced that they were going to merge in order
: to dominate the future "information superhighway." When Bell Atlantic
: and TCI announced that the merger was off, the momentum players in the
: stock market moved out of technology stocks.
So, it wasn't a bubble because the merger would have affected the entire
industry - however, since the merger was called off, the industry's
current and long term earnings forecast had to be revised, yielding a
drop in prices.
I'll shut up about economics now. Sorry.
Morris